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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.10.16 12:35:00 -
[1]
Edited by: Akita T on 16/10/2007 12:39:04
Elliott wave principle, according to wikipedia
Well, open THAT in a browser window, and open inside the game a market average price history of most items bound to change in Rev 3.
See what I mean ? 
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The fun part will be to see how things unfold if enough "market veterans" follow this waveform to adjust their buy/sell order behaviour.
Will it become meaningless as a prediction tool then ("ruined" by speculators), or will it simply reinforce the wave form due to some "chickening out" before the expected fluctuations hit ?
Regardless of either outcome, will be immensely interesting to watch.
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SencneS
Amarr
Balsarferskratchin Inc
Axiom Empire
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Posted - 2007.10.16 12:46:00 -
[2]
If you find the "How to utilize Elliott's Wave" theory you'll come across a rather interesting tactic. One of which I've used myself but didn't know it was related to Elliott's Wave.
The Basic concept is knowing then to read the wave to sell out for the most profit with the lest amount of Risk. It also has information on how to start and create a wave in a "wave-less" market. 
Amarr for Life |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.10.16 13:03:00 -
[3]
Well, in real-life, EWs are pretty hard to "see" in their unadulterated form, due to heavy market speculation and thorough analysis "for profit" through several other means except just this.
However, in EVE, you usually see loads of almost picture-perfect EWs without sub-EWs forming for most products.
I found it to quite entertaining, and profitable too
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McRuder
Gallente
Magnets and Duct Tape
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Posted - 2007.10.16 13:08:00 -
[4]
First I thought it was probably unwise to educate the masses - some things they better off not knowing.
But ... after some reflection, it really does not matter since Theory < Application < Insight. |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.10.16 13:20:00 -
[5]
Edited by: Akita T on 16/10/2007 13:22:21
Pretty much the same as EVE gameplay... give a newbie all the SPs he can ever need, and he still dies horribly to a much less "skilled" vet 
Just because people know the theory (i.e. have the "skills" in their head) doesn't mean they know how to apply it at all in the first place (PvE tank on a PvP ship, anybody?), much less apply it properly AND when it matters (I think no analogy is needed here).
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Johnny ReeRee
The ReeRee Brigade
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Posted - 2007.10.16 20:48:00 -
[6]
The devil is in the details, which is why most investment technical analysis is crap. It's about market fundamentals baby.
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Ter Fordal
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Posted - 2007.10.16 21:43:00 -
[7]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Elliott_wave_principle
certainly is disputed, makes CAOD look neutral. There is not much academic support for technical analysis.
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Daerkannon Shimmerscale
Gallente
Paxton Industries
Paxton Federation
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Posted - 2007.10.16 21:59:00 -
[8]
When someone starts being able to account for the two main market forces (fear and greed) in a mathematical model, then I'll start paying attention. Until then it's just trying to fit a rational model on top of an irrational system.
People have made far more money exploiting fear and greed in markets than they do looking at fiscal reports.
---
Honest officer, the dwarf was on fire when I got here!
Can't find a mechanical engineering agent? Need a non-Caldari Navy agent? http://www.eve-agents.com/ for all your agent needs! |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.10.16 22:13:00 -
[9]
Edited by: Akita T on 16/10/2007 22:15:41
But that's EXACTLY what EWs *try* to quantify : fear and greed vs information available
 Quote:
The wave principle posits that collective investor psychology (or crowd psychology) moves from optimism to pessimism and back again. These swings create patterns, as evidenced in the price movements of a market at every degree of trend.
[...]
Elliott Wave analysts (or "Elliotticians") may not need to look at a price chart to judge where a market is in its wave pattern. Each wave has its own "signature" which often reflects the psychology of the moment. Understanding how and why the waves develop is the key to applying the Wave Principle
The greatest strength of it is also its greatest failure... way too chaotic to use under normal circumstances.
But since EVE's market does not quite fit the bill on what you'd call "normal circumstances"...
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Toria Nynys
Minmatar
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Posted - 2007.10.17 05:25:00 -
[10]
Technical analysis and trading on technicals is based exclusively on analyzing fear and greed. Some of the analysis gets pretty mathematical. =)
Let's look at the basics -- resistance and support levels.
"Oh man, if this stock ever hits $X again, I'm *so* selling!" Boom. Not only did we just form a short term top, but also explained why some classic chart patterns look like they do.
"Oh man, next time that stock drops to $X I'm buying!" Yup, you guessed it. A support level and explanation for other chart patterns.
Convincingly breaking through either resistance or support puts people into a fear driven "wait and see" mode, or greed-driven bandwagon mode.
Unfortunately fundamental events trump technicals. The basic rules of the Eve universe change often enough to scramble any chart longer than about 3 months or so.
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Cmdr Sy
Appetite 4 Destruction
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Posted - 2007.10.17 16:59:00 -
[11]
TA is voodoo, but because people's economic interests and interpretation of the fundamentals tend to be similar, enough players move in similar fashion to make it work. There are always contrarians, but by definition they are in the minority and tend not to be big players.
However, events trump technicals every time, that's why you read news. And fundamentals, you only need to switch on CNBC to see how well that works sometimes. 
Anyway, as said above, game mechanics and item attributes get changed so often in EVE, a lot of price histories are of purely academic interest.
Logoffs
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.10.17 21:32:00 -
[12]
Yeah, but in EVE, you do know exactly when any change that might possibly influence the price has happened, and what exactly the change was (and how important, of course).
You can also see people's thoughts about upcoming changes fluctuating in posts they made, ideas being thrown around about what changes might be in the future, speculations based on that, and eventual price changes after final changes are announced and then finally put into effect.
If you're going to have Tech.Analysis on any economy, you can't find a better place for it but EVE
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Ricdic
Caldari
Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd
Zzz
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Posted - 2007.10.17 21:42:00 -
[13]
Lately I have found that I can earn more by selling to speculative prices rather than waiting for the patch
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.10.17 21:50:00 -
[14]
Edited by: Akita T on 17/10/2007 21:51:59
Well, post-patch, usually the prices do come crashing down fast from hyperinflated levels back to "normal" post-patch levels, indeed. Of course, usually because of the speculators unloading stocks rather than an actual increase in supply or drop in demand.
Usually, but not always. Depends a lot on how speculation fits actual change
The main benefit of pre-patch liquidation is that you can focus on other items that haven't still been touched by the pre-patch craze too much, but will be shortly after (like, say, minerals and larger recycleables).
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Ricdic
Caldari
Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd
Zzz
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Posted - 2007.10.17 23:29:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Akita T
Usually, but not always. Depends a lot on how speculation fits actual change
Yeh well in the past speculation on upcoming patches has always been a huge money earner, and is still the case now as long as you can get in on it before the other speculators do.
In the old days speculation wasn't anywhere near as publicised as it is now, which is why we see such major price changes before patches, where it wasn't the case a couple of years back. Only a handful of smart people would jump on it, not 10% of the playerbase.
And yeh most notably with datacores, there will be a huge flood of them added to the market within a week of the patch being released so anyone hoping to quickly profit on patch day may be sorely surprised.
Either way, it's great seeing how the market reacts to these changes, and even greater being able to ride the waves
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