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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.08 11:59:00 -
[1]
What kind of reason do you guys see?
I have 3 reasons on my radar so far:
1) Resellers think they can get their part of the T2-BS cake as demand will rise above normal supply.. wouldn't they have bought waaaayyyyyy earlier?
2) Resellers think that the recently occured POS-Bugs and their exploitation will led to a dip in advanced material supply for the next time.. this makes more sense to me as the above, as you need to read the forums to get this kind of information and realize it's consequences.
3) T2-component-producer rising production for the new stuff and buy nearly everthing they can get hold of.. hm, same as 1) as I don't think they wouldn't plan beforehand - I buy weekly and the traded volume per day is BIG over all
I don't think that it's the T2-producers.. escpecially the T2-BS-producers, as I can't see the price-rise comming from the T2-components - they're relatively stable from my point of view in forge and essence.. it's the advanced materials that rised in price over the last 24hrs.
Crystalline Carbonide Armor Plates: 100/u to 130/u
Sylramic Fibres: 190/u to 280/u
Hypersynaptic Fibres: 4100/u to 4450/u
However.. I bought more than half of the stuff I needed cheaper in oursu today as jita started to screw up my calculations. 
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Macdeth
Ephemeral Misgivings
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Posted - 2007.12.08 12:05:00 -
[2]
Invention success rates were improved drastically, so now everybody finds themselves with a lot more T2 BPCs they need components to build the finished good. Additionally, you've got a whole bunch of people racing to sell the new ships for massive profits due to undersupply and they don't care what they pay because their margins will be so great.
Even though most of the information's available ahead of time enabling informed people to make a mint, most people just aren't so obsessed as to spend countless hours poring over patch notes, messing about with things that may change again on the test server, etc.
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.08 12:28:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Tres Farmer on 08/12/2007 12:30:07
 Originally by: Macdeth
Invention success rates were improved drastically, so now everybody finds themselves with a lot more T2 BPCs they need components to build the finished good.
Hm.. how many invetors are building the t2 components by their own? Especially if you look at production times and units needed?
Next.. how many inventors should now buy for higher prices if the success-rates where higher, so that sales-prices for the t2-gear will tank? (I mean ok, there are those 'I get free cores- and decryptors-people, but they don't make the majority of the market, do they?)
Originally by: Macdeth
Additionally, you've got a whole bunch of people racing to sell the new ships for massive profits due to undersupply and they don't care what they pay because their margins will be so great.
That's why I wrote that the t2-component prices WHEREN'T affected.. their prices had rised slowly over the last two weeks. It's clearly the price-spike in the last 24hrs on the advanced materials I wonder about..
Originally by: Macdeth
Even though most of the information's available ahead of time enabling informed people to make a mint, most people just aren't so obsessed as to spend countless hours poring over patch notes, messing about with things that may change again on the test server, etc.
Another one.. if I buy the advanced materials low and sell them as t2 components for a markup and also buy t2 components low and sell the finished t2 product for a markup I make more than by buying the advanced materials, build the t2 components from it and sell the finished t2 product with an markup..
I even make more money if I just concentrate on one of those fields.
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Mr Horizontal
Gallente
KIA Corp
KIA Alliance
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Posted - 2007.12.08 12:28:00 -
[4]
 
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meh. |
Macdeth
Ephemeral Misgivings
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Posted - 2007.12.08 12:57:00 -
[5]
Edited by: Macdeth on 08/12/2007 13:01:38
Originally by: Tres Farmer
Originally by: Macdeth
Invention success rates were improved drastically, so now everybody finds themselves with a lot more T2 BPCs they need components to build the finished good.
Hm.. how many invetors are building the t2 components by their own? Especially if you look at production times and units needed?
Lots of people do, because they have the spare factory slots for the extra 10% profit and think it's worthwhile. Second, because volume producers love their 30 day batches, finished component prices trail behind the spot market for input materials.
Quote:
Next.. how many inventors should now buy for higher prices if the success-rates where higher, so that sales-prices for the t2-gear will tank? (I mean ok, there are those 'I get free cores- and decryptors-people, but they don't make the majority of the market, do they?)
Most people are dumb, what can I say? This is why it's easy for people with capital to turn around and make tens of billions in a few days around patch times, almost every time.
Originally by: Macdeth
Additionally, you've got a whole bunch of people racing to sell the new ships for massive profits due to undersupply and they don't care what they pay because their margins will be so great.
Quote:
That's why I wrote that the t2-component prices WHEREN'T affected.. their prices had rised slowly over the last two weeks. It's clearly the price-spike in the last 24hrs on the advanced materials I wonder about..
Lagging indicator & all that. Once the slow people get into trying to build the t2 freighters some more, those precise things you mentioned will get slammed because of the gallente industrial 5 dominance unless a lot more capacity has come online in preparation for it, and I doubt it has.
Edit:
Also I skimmed your message pretty badly, both times
Gallente T2 jump freighters are your entire answer.
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.08 15:30:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Macdeth
Originally by: Tres Farmer
Hm.. how many invetors are building the t2 components by their own? Especially if you look at production times and units needed?
Lots of people do, because they have the spare factory slots for the extra 10% profit and think it's worthwhile.
Possible but unlikely if you look at the numbers of needed components and their buildtime.. especially when you consider that you need even more components now with rised chances.
Originally by: Macdeth
Second, because volume producers love their 30 day batches, finished component prices trail behind the spot market for input materials.
As I said.. the t2 component prices anticipated the advanced material prices AND the price-hike of the advanced materials happened in the last 24hrs.. this is the opposite of your view!
Originally by: Macdeth
Originally by: Tres Farmer
Next.. how many inventors should now buy for higher prices if the success-rates where higher, so that sales-prices for the t2-gear will tank? (I mean ok, there are those 'I get free cores- and decryptors-people, but they don't make the majority of the market, do they?)
Most people are dumb, what can I say? This is why it's easy for people with capital to turn around and make tens of billions in a few days around patch times, almost every time.
Sounds more like advantages got used by anticipating game-mechanic-changes.. but you're right.. some a dumb 
Originally by: Macdeth
Also I skimmed your message pretty badly, both times
Gallente T2 jump freighters are your entire answer.
Hm.. doesn't explain the spike, as jump frighter build ops will have made their preparations weeks before. Otherwise this kind of business wouldn't be doable at all.. I mean it's not as we're speaking about some lousy t1 friggs here. The logistics behind those kind of biz simply can't work like that..
So I don't think the T2-JF-builders are to 'blame' 
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.08 16:43:00 -
[7]
I can say this much regarding the spike in some t2 material prices: I'm helping it.
At first I was playing to the market. Making some good returns (50% - 100%+ markup) on various goods that Benvie had me stockpile. Then, 24 hours later, we noticed that some goods we sold for 100% markup were now selling for 400% markup. I then realized, I've got a crap load of supplies that are becoming quite rare.
So now, I'm charging whatever the hell I think I should get. Not what the market is willing to bear. And if you don't like it, don't buy it. I'm sure those who have bought it will in turn make their profit as best as they can while you sit on your bum whining about the prices.
And, yes. Someone is going to get caught holding the bag. The idea is to move fast enough, sure enough, and firmly enough to get out of the game before the bottom drops.
This is market pvp.
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.08 17:06:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
..And if you don't like it, don't buy it. I'm sure those who have bought it will in turn make their profit as best as they can while you sit on your bum whining about the prices..
I'm not whining.. how do you come to this conclusion?
Just wanted to share some thoughts with othres what they think about this.. especially in relation to the pos-bugs.
And gratz to your achievement. Keep it up mate! 
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Aladdin Insane
Hampshire Massive DIstributed
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Posted - 2007.12.08 18:08:00 -
[9]
Edited by: Aladdin Insane on 08/12/2007 18:08:09
Originally by: Shar Tegral
So now, I'm charging whatever the hell I think I should get. Not what the market is willing to bear. And if you don't like it, don't buy it. I'm sure those who have bought it will in turn make their profit as best as they can while you sit on your bum whining about the prices.
And, yes. Someone is going to get caught holding the bag. The idea is to move fast enough, sure enough, and firmly enough to get out of the game before the bottom drops.
This is market pvp.
Wise words, made quite a pretty packet today selling at prices i, not the market want.
_____________________
Eve is not a sandbox
Sandboxes always have kitty poo in them
Selling Moon locations. 2x advanced mat
http://oldforums.eveonline.com/?a=topic&threadID=6530 |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.12.08 19:32:00 -
[10]
By the way, Shar, when's Benvie's "trinity market sniping" IPO liquidating,and how does the return look like up to this point ?
1|2|3|4|5. |
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Argenton Sayvers
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Posted - 2007.12.08 19:54:00 -
[11]
Check Jita prices ...
I think the explanation for this is simple ...
While the build costs for the new ships where known long in advance, there was no consumption, just virtual demand.
The real demand doesnt kick in before t2 BS and Jumpfreighters are installed in the factories. This will be in about 2-3 days.
Now people start to realise that their 5b pile of components only gets them 10-20 Marauders built. And not everyone could afford a 5b pile anyway ...
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Leowen
Industrial Giants
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Posted - 2007.12.08 23:18:00 -
[12]
I don't see why this is different to any other patch day. I started to stockpile advanced mats about a week ago and have topped it up in the last few days - I guess I'm holding about 20b worth at the mo. Expect the price increases to dip after the spike as the initial surge of demand is fulfilled, and then stay above historical rates as existing POS output will not meet demand generated by all of the new ships.
Some materials will be more affected than others - the ones I've stocked up on of course :-)
But really - this is nothing new. T2 Components will be the next to surge in response to materials costs. 2-3 days from now, reactors will be 60k, armor plates will be 15-20k, etc. And I'll cash in.
Market PvP ftw!!
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SiJira
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Posted - 2007.12.09 00:24:00 -
[13]
you and me both
____ __ ________
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devs and gms cant modify my sig if they tried!
_lies above_
CCP Morpheus was here
Morpheus Fails. You need colors!! -Kaemonn
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Kylar Renpurs
Dusk Blade
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Posted - 2007.12.09 00:25:00 -
[14]
As a T2 component producer, anybody in this market who didnt expect a spike in prices is stupid.
On the flipside, Dusk Blade should be providing some a nice christmas bonus thanks to this :)
Improve Market Competition! |
SiJira
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Posted - 2007.12.09 00:33:00 -
[15]
merry christmas
____ __ ________
_sig below_
devs and gms cant modify my sig if they tried!
_lies above_
CCP Morpheus was here
Morpheus Fails. You need colors!! -Kaemonn
[yellow]Kaem |
Sphynx Stormlord
Gallente
Anqara Tech
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Posted - 2007.12.09 00:37:00 -
[16]
So, the interesting question is, at what point is it time to buy T2 ships to refine for components?
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Argenton Sayvers
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Posted - 2007.12.09 00:50:00 -
[17]
And when you thought it couldnt get any worse for EOS pilots ...
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SiJira
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Posted - 2007.12.09 01:04:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Sphynx Stormlord
So, the interesting question is, at what point is it time to buy T2 ships to refine for components?
right now unless you want to make 10% in 7 days of what you could have made in 17
____ __ ________
_sig below_
devs and gms cant modify my sig if they tried!
_lies above_
CCP Morpheus was here
Morpheus Fails. You need colors!! -Kaemonn
[yellow]Kaem |
Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.09 01:44:00 -
[19]
Edited by: Tres Farmer on 09/12/2007 01:49:16
So you're all saying, that it's because of simple new-shiny-t2-gear, right?
K..
Just thought that those POS-Bugs could have something to do with it, as 2 days after patch everything was ok with the prices (especially with the t2 components, which should had risen before the advanced materials, if this is induced by late t2-gear-producing-entities).
As the rumors about POSs-taken-down-news in forums got more in front of recognizing, the resellers could had seen their chance and bought the advanced materials, as supplies of them will suffer first..
However.. I'm in no position to have a clue about the status of the POSs so I'll take your words. Thx for sharing info and may your trades be fruitfull.
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Argenton Sayvers
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Posted - 2007.12.09 02:15:00 -
[20]
The POS bugs might play a role, but i think you just had wrong information.
I know that the entire Reactor Unit chain got bought out 2 hours before patch downtime (and relisted at crazy prices)
Most adv. materials where stable at the time of your post, with 3 exceptions:
Fermionics
Sylramic fibres
and Ferrogel, wich was steady at 16
There was no reason to target t2 components unless you could be sure that ferrogel would hold above 20. You cannot manipulate t2c prices with a spread of 10k+ per unit, everyone will cancel their HAC BPO jobs and build t2 comps instead.
Ferrogel is steady above 20 now, so everything with ferrogel in it got bought out pretty safely.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.09 02:49:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Argenton Sayvers
Fermionics
Sylramic fibres
Ferrogel
Rather ironic that you should list those items. I have gobs of them. In fact I sell Sylramic Fibers at 320.25% of purchase price and Fermionics at 284.23% of purchase price. Ferrogel, now there is where I think I'm going to really stick it to the market. Hard. All this at Benvie's direction of course.
My Latest Auction!! |
Argenton Sayvers
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Posted - 2007.12.09 03:27:00 -
[22]
Edited by: Argenton Sayvers on 09/12/2007 03:28:52
As long as noone comes forth and puts 300b of ferrogel on the market, 30k+ is possible. Not a single* BS has been put in factory yet ... interesting times ahead of us...
*some exceptions possible if some rumors are true ...
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.09 03:47:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Argenton Sayvers
As long as noone comes forth and puts 300b of ferrogel on the market, 30k+ is possible.
Interesting that you should point that out. Not only do I think it is possible, I think it will soon be a reality. If you do your research you will notice that in these three products, since you pointed them out, demand is far outweighing supply. And, since I'm moving some of these issues, I can see that there is production motivated purchasing happening not just speculation driven purchases. The difference is easy to see because speculators looking to jump in buy in round bulk numbers (or your entire lot at once), speculators looking to figure out who their competition is buy 1 of your product (gee, how many people need just one Fermionic Condensate?), and finally small time producers (which is going to be the bulk of the market) mostly just buy what they need right now. PS: Akita T, I'll do a report on RDIR so that investors can see where some things are at and where somethings are not. Benvie and I discussed it and we both think that we can start offering buy backs soon. Not that many will take it but some people might want to get out before the bottom falls out. Besides I'm just giddy with presenting such a dilemma to my investors. "Do I stay in or do I cash out" is a cruel place to be but it as Benvie & I are sweating the same issue (with the fund itself) I figure it's only fair to have the investors in the same boat.
My Latest Auction!! |
Ricdic
Caldari
Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd
Zzz
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Posted - 2007.12.09 05:03:00 -
[24]
Edited by: Ricdic on 09/12/2007 05:06:23
Originally by: Argenton Sayvers
Not a single* BS has been put in factory yet ... interesting times ahead of us...
I am pretty sure this is incorrect. I got a small co-op happening and last I heard production had started. Actually, I am certain as I have a bpc linked in my evemail!
Linkage for proofzors
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Argenton Sayvers
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Posted - 2007.12.09 05:22:00 -
[25]
Edited by: Argenton Sayvers on 09/12/2007 05:24:22
I doubt anyone has BS Construction IV yet ... or will have it for the next 30h.
So i guess its time to gamble? Wts Ferrogel 45k each, bulk quantity.
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Ricdic
Caldari
Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd
Zzz
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Posted - 2007.12.09 05:51:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Argenton Sayvers
Edited by: Argenton Sayvers on 09/12/2007 05:24:22
I doubt anyone has BS Construction IV yet ... or will have it for the next 30h.
Good call I missed that requirement. I don't do the production of BS aspect
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Admiral Nova
Strike Team Nova
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Posted - 2007.12.09 08:02:00 -
[27]
Hmm, any POS with a cyno generator on it no longer produces anything (mining or reacting). And you can't turn the cyno generator off... Fun.
This coupled with the bridges means that supply is being turned off at just the time demand is being ramped up.
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.09 11:24:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Admiral Nova
Hmm, any POS with a cyno generator on it no longer produces anything (mining or reacting). And you can't turn the cyno generator off... Fun.
This coupled with the bridges means that supply is being turned off at just the time demand is being ramped up.
Me wonders how long this will affect supplies.. I mean, what numbers are we talking about here?
Patch was deployed when? .. thursday morning.. so we have a shortage since then. But how much is this shortage? 5%? 10%? 20%?
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Admiral Nova
Strike Team Nova
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Posted - 2007.12.09 11:47:00 -
[29]
Once they get working again, some supplies will return right away (those people waiting for bridges to work before they move them), though those with towers not doing anything at all it will just be lost production time....
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Daerkannon Shimmerscale
Gallente
Paxton Industries
Paxton Federation
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Posted - 2007.12.09 15:16:00 -
[30]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Rather ironic that you should list those items. I have gobs of them. In fact I sell Sylramic Fibers at 320.25% of purchase price and Fermionics at 284.23% of purchase price. Ferrogel, now there is where I think I'm going to really stick it to the market.
Ah, I'd been wondering who was doing that. Masterful job, really. Made me a few hundred million ISK too just buying from people that insist on selling to buy orders and buying from sell orders.  Tried something similar myself in a different market, but I got trounced because I didn't have the technique down or the ISK to back my position.
So.. thanks for the ISK!
---
Honest officer, the dwarf was on fire when I got here!
Can't find a mechanical engineering agent? Need a non-Caldari Navy agent? http://www.eve-agents.com/ for all your agent needs! |
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.09 15:24:00 -
[31]
Originally by: Daerkannon Shimmerscale
So.. thanks for the ISK!
Gratitude is best sent via Isk wire transfer!
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Daerkannon Shimmerscale
Gallente
Paxton Industries
Paxton Federation
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Posted - 2007.12.09 15:43:00 -
[32]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Gratitude is best sent via Isk wire transfer![/justify]
I said I was grateful, not insane!
---
Honest officer, the dwarf was on fire when I got here!
Can't find a mechanical engineering agent? Need a non-Caldari Navy agent? http://www.eve-agents.com/ for all your agent needs! |
Amicus Pauperi
ASGARD SECURITY SHIPPING PRODUCTION
SMASH Alliance
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Posted - 2007.12.09 20:07:00 -
[33]
Logistics issues since Trinity are keeping supply bottled up. Although I suspect Adv Mats will settle at a price higher than before - they are unlikely to stay this high. I predict one event in particular will cause prices to tank.
Economic PvP - Cornering Jita 4-4 |
VScorpion
Gallente
Koshaku
Interstellar Starbase Syndicate
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Posted - 2007.12.10 12:40:00 -
[34]
I for my part can just state that this price hick is the best thing that has happened to me for quite a while
but then it is starting to impact prices for raw materials quite a bit as well which makes me not quite the happy camper I could be.
But what the hell...
good times if you have a reaction chain in place atm
VScorpion
Please resize image to a maximum of 400 x 120, not exceeding 24000 bytes, ty. If you would like further details please mail [email protected] - Cortes |
Kirjava
Lothian Quay Industries
Zzz
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Posted - 2007.12.10 12:50:00 -
[35]
Yes, I started loading up on materials today and WOAH!
Mother of an increse, damn the market took a wallop.
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Admiral Nova
Strike Team Nova
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Posted - 2007.12.10 13:37:00 -
[36]
At this downtime my POS dumped all the materials that it had failed to mine since the patch into the silos. Expect supply to pickup if bridges are fixed also. (not sure on that yet)
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Algorithm 5
Caldari
Hakata Group
Blade.
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Posted - 2007.12.11 11:48:00 -
[37]
Edited by: Algorithm 5 on 11/12/2007 11:55:29
You want the low down?
Here's what has happened.
1. Reactor cores for ships jump massively to sell new t2 ships at vastly inflated "new ship" prices.
2. People buy more in advance, to hedge against their Marauder production (since half the mission runners in eve will be buying them) pushing the prices even higher.
3. With profit rates on reactors at 20m per factory slot per day (even at 100k per reactor) the prices of the two dyspro and promethium advanced materials skyrockets.
4. As those two go up vastly, the prices of dysprosium and promethium go through the roof.
5. MOST of the market ignores the rest of the advanced materials market, concentrating on t2 invention etc.
6. Now speculators like me are convinced that the dyspro/promethium prices are here to stay, we factor those prices into our computer models.
7. The models tell us that there's about 6 intermediate and advanced materials (I'm not saying which) with massive stocks on the market at below the cost of production if you factor in the higher dyspro/promethium prices.
8. Those speculators focus on those materials, buy out the entire market, and move the prices for those goods to where the future stable price WILL be, factoring in the new dyspro prices.
And thus, specific intermediate and advanced materials double in price overnight.
For my part, I'll put my hand up and take responsibility for the Hyperflurite price spike, I grabbed about 80% of the market yesterday for 3b or so and by the time I got home from work and had access to investor funds from my alliance mates, the smaller players nabbed the rest.
Bought in at 7k, my computer model suggests 15-20k as the correct price.
Of course, the risk is that you get it wrong.
I also bought the entire heavy water market at 15-20 a while back, and it's still only at 55... I'd modelled something closer to 80-100 as the stable pricing once the Rorqual was switched to use it as fuel.
I'm still not sure who it's not at 100, although it's gradually creeping up, so I'm hoping it's just the insane stockpiles people had because of the supply imbalance slowly selling off.
But to summarise, the reason that advanced materials are spiking, is because there's people with large amounts of isk that are better at math than you :)
(and of course, mostly better than me) :)
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.11 12:19:00 -
[38]
Edited by: Tres Farmer on 11/12/2007 12:19:23
Originally by: Algorithm 5
You want the low down?
Hm.. not really. But I'm very thankfull (in words ) that you gave me (and the attendant readers naturally) some deeper insight.
Originally by: Algorithm 5
But to summarise, the reason that advanced materials are spiking, is because there's people with large amounts of isk that are better at math than you :)
(and of course, mostly better than me) :)
Hehe.. glad you added that last part with the edit, otherwise I would have replied something offending
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Verite Rendition
Caldari
F.R.E.E. Explorer
Atrum Tempestas Foedus
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Posted - 2007.12.11 13:07:00 -
[39]
Originally by: Algorithm 5
Edited by: Algorithm 5 on 11/12/2007 11:55:29
*stuff*
The doubling of compression lines is effectively halving Rorqual HW use. Plus there simply aren't enough Rorquals in use (nor will there ever be) to suck up all of the HW. The price is up obviously, but I can't imagine it hitting 80-100.
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FREE Explorer
Lead Megalomanic
EVE Automated Influence Map |
Jon Asus
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Posted - 2007.12.11 13:10:00 -
[40]
Anyone want 16.8k of Hexite and Ceramic Powder? It's 4 or 5 jumps out of Jita, msg me
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Algorithm 5
Caldari
Hakata Group
Blade.
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Posted - 2007.12.11 13:18:00 -
[41]
Edited by: Algorithm 5 on 11/12/2007 13:24:13
Edited by: Algorithm 5 on 11/12/2007 13:20:41
Originally by: Verite Rendition
Originally by: Algorithm 5
Edited by: Algorithm 5 on 11/12/2007 11:55:29
*stuff*
The doubling of compression lines is effectively halving Rorqual HW use. Plus there simply aren't enough Rorquals in use (nor will there ever be) to suck up all of the HW. The price is up obviously, but I can't imagine it hitting 80-100.
My guess was mostly based on the observation that the base price of both are the same, and the 0.0 ice they come from in the highest quantities is also symmetrical.
That is, there's ice that gives twice as much ozone as hw (dark glitter), and vica versa.
Thus, MOST 0.0 volume miners SHOULD be mining at a 2-1 ozone to hq ratio if they can (and any Alliance with about half a region can).
It was obvious from the bargain basement prices that demand for ozone was more than twice that for HW, but there was no secondary market for the hw to get dumped to, unlike ozone (cynos get cheaper...) so the price of HW was trending to zero due to unusable excess supply.
The advent of a secondary market should have meant that the excess supply has a sink now (cheap, almost free, operation of the ore compression). Since profitability of ice mining is based on the composite prices for ozone, hw and stront, that should have meant a reduction in the ozone component of the equation, and an increase in the HW component.
As for the numbers of Rorquals though, you are right.
The hw price IS slowly rising though (although I suspect more reactor pos helps by a larger factor, since they consume enormous amounts of HW).
But I think you underestimate how much miners loath the refinery taxes at 0.0 outposts. They'll do quite a bit to avoid that 10% or 20%. So there SHOULD be a reasonable amount of compression on an ongoing basis in most 0.0 alliances.
The question is, will it be enough to push HW closer to price equality with ozone... even if it does hit my target price, TBH it's taken far FAR longer than I would have liked, but my stockpile is so large I can't just dump it on the market without crashing it, so it will take a while to clear it... so I'll wait it out and bail once I see price equality.
Or I could always just try feeding it into towers and treat it as the biggest HW hedging exercise ever :)
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Kirjava
Lothian Quay Industries
Zzz
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Posted - 2007.12.11 13:28:00 -
[42]
Edited by: Kirjava on 11/12/2007 13:29:17
The prices are probably there to stay for quite a while, the Ferrogel has increased dramaticly in price aswell as it snowballs together.
I am allready facepalming that it doubled again last night..... bugger 
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Benvie
Benvie Enterprises
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Posted - 2007.12.11 17:27:00 -
[43]
I can't log in right now, don't suppose anyone could post a list of jita prices for advanced moon minerals?
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Maldad Asesino
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Posted - 2007.12.11 22:21:00 -
[44]
The ferrogel tip was cool, when I thought some more about it I found nanotransistors too were and are still way underpriced. Shouldn't be too hard making alot of money out of that!
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Kirjava
Lothian Quay Industries
Zzz
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Posted - 2007.12.11 23:07:00 -
[45]
Just ran over the data, assuming that all moon raw materials lock at what they are NOW, then ferrogel will probably level out ar arouns 18k/unit.
This is largely due to Dysprosium reaching 57k/unit
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.11 23:29:00 -
[46]
Originally by: Kirjava
Just ran over the data, assuming that all moon raw materials lock at what they are NOW, then ferrogel will probably level out ar arouns 18k/unit.
This is largely due to Dysprosium reaching 57k/unit
Now that's cheating! I see ferrogel changing hands at still quite high prices. Way over 18K per unit, in many cases well over double that.
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Nyphur
Pillowsoft
Total Comfort
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Posted - 2007.12.12 04:12:00 -
[47]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Originally by: Kirjava
Just ran over the data, assuming that all moon raw materials lock at what they are NOW, then ferrogel will probably level out ar arouns 18k/unit.
This is largely due to Dysprosium reaching 57k/unit
Now that's cheating! I see ferrogel changing hands at still quite high prices. Way over 18K per unit, in many cases well over double that.
If you have been following the correlation between dysprosium/promethium prices and ferrogel prices, you'd realise that your 18k estimate is very conservative. I fully expect prices to be vastly in excess of 18k when they level out.
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Kylar Renpurs
Dusk Blade
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Posted - 2007.12.12 05:52:00 -
[48]
Quote:
5. MOST of the market ignores the rest of the advanced materials market, concentrating on t2 invention etc.
I'd like to push that a little further saying that most of the T2 production market ignores each other part unless it's your part. Fatal mistake for a lot of people. Managed to save 25% on material costs on numerous occasions thanks to people selling massively below manufacture cost
Improve Market Competition! |
Arithron
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Posted - 2007.12.12 09:54:00 -
[49]
The reason for the massive upsurge in prices is demand (the main market driver) and the large increase in Dysprosium etc. 1 month ago Dysprosium was 14k a unit. I brought a load up and resold at 20k. It sold Thus, I wondered how high a price players would pay. I brought up at 25 (entire Jita stock) and resold initially at 44k a unit- it sold, although then a lot of stock went up for sale as players cashed in/hauled in.
Trinity hit- I brought up all Jita stock last Friday at 38k a unit, stuck it back on at 65k...guess what- all sold before others stuck more stock on for less. Guess I'll now just wait till prices fall down a little more from players undercutting etc, then try for a new ceiling...
Arithron
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Arithron
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Posted - 2007.12.12 10:00:00 -
[50]
There are other minerals that will increase by at least 25%, that most players are overlooking at the moment. With a little investigation, its not hard to see what they are....any of the new BPC will show you the way!
Speculation is an integral part of any economy. Smart investment (with a little elbow grease in researching possible future trends) lowers the risk of losing a vast fortune. It doesn't take a rocket scientist at the moment to see what the future trends will be. Of course, most players are too late to take any advantage of these trends...
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.12 11:19:00 -
[51]
Originally by: Kylar Renpurs
I'd like to push that a little further saying that most of the T2 production market ignores each other part unless it's your part. Fatal mistake for a lot of people. Managed to save 25% on material costs on numerous occasions thanks to people selling massively below manufacture cost
How do you know?
Different regions have different prices for different stuff at different times..
So, you're in NO POSITION whatsoever, for judging what kind of manufacturing costs any market sell order has.. you can assume, yes, but not more.
And you can say if something is really undervalued (if the components in all regions never had been that cheap - like 'minerals I mine a free').
But you never can say how somebody calculations look like, so better stay quiet or use your money and capitalize on their stuff..
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Arithron
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Posted - 2007.12.12 23:23:00 -
[52]
Ahh, that mineral I was talking about earlier has already increased 12% today since DT.
With the tech 2 moon minerals being so high, and once the new ship production stabilises, anyone care to hazard a guess as to what level Dysprosium may stablise at? Pre-expansion prices???
Ari
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.12 23:51:00 -
[53]
Originally by: Arithron
Anyone care to hazard a guess as to what level Dysprosium may stablise at? Pre-expansion prices???
I'm not even going to try. While it may not have a sudden impact I do know that one Dysprosium moon has been put into reinforced earlier today. The fireworks that will result when that comes out.... Woooohwweeeee. Love to be fly on the wall for that.
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VScorpion
Gallente
Koshaku
Interstellar Starbase Syndicate
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Posted - 2007.12.13 12:30:00 -
[54]
Now that was a very short and hard spike...
Ferrogel hit 28k and now it is back to 20k...
and I sold my stock right before the spike.
stupid me, at least I got a very happy customer now
VScorpion
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Kirjava
Lothian Quay Industries
Zzz
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Posted - 2007.12.13 12:34:00 -
[55]
Originally by: VScorpion
Now that was a very short and hard spike...
Ferrogel hit 28k and now it is back to 20k...
and I sold my stock right before the spike.
stupid me, at least I got a very happy customer now
Dont feel too bad, I did the same thing.
Such a spike cannot be predicted and hence you are not to blame.
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