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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.09 19:53:00 -
[1]
ProductsFund Volume Sold Overall Profit GainFund Volume
Item #1 7.13% 29.91%Not Disclosed
Item #2 0.00% 0.00%Not Disclosed
Item #3 16.43% 99.65%Not Disclosed
Item #4 26.29% 38.92%Not Disclosed
Item #5 0.00% 0.00%Not Disclosed
Graviton Reactor Unit100.00% 85.95% 14,340
Item #7 0.00% 0.00%Not Disclosed
Magpulse Thruster100.00% 46.95% 12
Item #9 0.00% 0.00%Not Disclosed
Item #10 31.67%120.37%Not Disclosed
Item #11 0.00% 0.00%Not Disclosed
Item #12 0.00% 0.00%Not Disclosed
Item #13 87.82% 44.01%Not Disclosed
Item #14 6.07% 20.65%Not Disclosed
Item #15 52.72% 75.23%Not Disclosed
Item #16 53.33% 42.02%Not Disclosed
Per Prodcut Profit To Date:
3,033,866,104.35
Benvie's Cut Per Product Sale To Date:
772,878,191.85
This is just a quick report on actual activity. As for my impressions of where things are headed:
Jita Sales
Total disaster with all the stuck and lag out situations. Some smart resellers have already started setting up sales for various products at systems outside of Jita but along the common path. (An example is Urlen.)
Current Winners
Fermionic Condensates (75K ipu - plateau'd)
Ferrogel (40k ipu - climbing)
Sylramic Fibers (425 ipu - climbing)
A combination of factors has arisen that has give rise to high price for these items. While the Jita price is lower than other regions lack of supply in the face of increasing demand has driven record highs. Be it Moon Mining failures; Jump Bridge failures; Jita lag out/stuck; or fear of suicide ganks; supply has been critically bottlenecked.
Knock on effects have also started to take effect with a range of dependent materials and/or products going up in price. (Drones are spiking but this may also reflect not only the increases mentioned but also the new build reqs requiring the t1 version as well.)
More to come as follows
PS: If you have any additional data or pointers you wish to share please feel free to come to the channel "Bar - Lancers" and chat with me. Direct evemail or convoes cost 400K isk in cspa charges as an anti-isk reseller measure.
My Latest Auction!! |
Dr Slurm
General Commodities
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Posted - 2007.12.09 19:59:00 -
[2]
I was wondering about the progress of this investment. Thanks for the update.
It's better then Quafe! |
Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.09 20:11:00 -
[3]
 Originally by: Dr Slurm
I was wondering about the progress of this investment. Thanks for the update.
Akita T made me realize that people are wondering. I should add that the percentage of product profit is still something of an estimate. The result is figured from each transaction individually like so Quote:
Multiply Num Units by Purchase Price.
Subtract Estimated broker fee per transaction
Subtract Estimated taxes per transaction
Divide remainder by Num Units.
(This step gets me the adjusted price per unit at each transaction point.)
Subtract Average Purchase Price from Adjusted Price Per unit.
Multiple Adjusted Profit Per Unit by 15%.
(Benvie's pay is based on receiving 25% of everything over 5% per month. Since we have not been doing monthly dividends I've summed this up as 5% for October, November, and December.)
Multiply this new number by 25% to determine Benvie's pay per unit for each transaction.
Subtract Benvie's Pay Per Unit from Adjusted Profit Per Unit.
Divide Final Profit Per Unit by Fund Average Price Per Unit to determine profit percentage shown here.
Now, while this may sound exact it is not. It doesn't include various incurred costs such as broker fees for price adjustments, or for delisting and relisting. So the NAV for RDIR itself will be determined from "journal" records minus Benvie's "management fee". Then we'd have some really hard numbers for investors to play with. But these are good just for performance review.
My Latest Auction!! |
Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.09 20:34:00 -
[4]
Sustained Shield Emitters
Hot item someone just pointed out to me. Jita activity on this has gone from open purchase orders of around 19K per unit to over 30K per unit. As we all know when the buying price of something jumps so dramatically you can expect the sell price of something to jump as much if not more.
Sadly, as of this report (hot tip), I can not tell you why the demand for these have jumped so strongly. Looking at the market history itself you can see that the traded volume fluctuates wildly from around 25K units to a high of 160K units. The past few days has seen relatively high numbers of course (The one really low day was Trininty Patch day - go figure!) while the market itself is only offering a fraction of the daily volume.
Ergo, demand is truly outstripping supply. Whether supply is artificially being controlled by one person (or just a few people) it is hard to determine but well them's the facts as can be determined.
So to all the sustained shield emitter hoarders... have fun, profit much.
My Latest Auction!! |
Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.09 20:51:00 -
[5]
Titanium Diborite Armor Plate
Can we just say "Bend over"? Existing sell orders for this item are well over anything reasonable. (Some over 200K ipu!) There was even a buy order for over 30K ipu. Was as I decided to fill it myself! As a disclaimer I should point out that I have now put up the lowest active sell order at 50K ipu (48K lower than the next order and 100K lower than the one after that).
What are my chances?
PS: It's a good idea to tell people if you have some sort of bias or not when doing these kinds of updates.
My Latest Auction!! |
Argenton Sayvers
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Posted - 2007.12.09 21:00:00 -
[6]
This is not even close to being funny. Stop griefing the market.*
*Thats my job. Even worse, i planned on investing but forgot about it...
Additionally, i shipped all the goods that now go for 500% out of Jita and now need to ship them back.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.09 21:10:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Argenton Sayvers
This is not even close to being funny. Stop griefing the market.*
What I couldn't believe was how much people were willing to pay for the new scripts. The non-pvp focused ones I'm still getting 100K a pop for... in empire! Originally by: Argenton Sayvers
*Thats my job. Even worse, i planned on investing but forgot about it... Additionally, i shipped all the goods that now go for 500% out of Jita and now need to ship them back.
I can't stand the travel route along Jita myself. Far too many suicide gankers looking for a sudden pay day. I can be flying an empty shuttle and I'll get suicided... just for the killmail. (Happened twice!!) And yes, I understand I could alt fly something to "x" system. I don't skill up alts for such practices so it is just little ole me doing the transports.
My Latest Auction!! |
Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.09 21:20:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Titanium Diborite Armor Plate
What are my chances?
I know I'm being chatty, about to head out for a nice dinner after a very long day at church. But I thought I'd update, it's actually selling at this rate. <Perhaps I should look at what it costs to manufacture hunh?>
My Latest Auction!! |
Ricdic
Caldari
Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd
Zzz
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Posted - 2007.12.09 21:58:00 -
[9]
Sustained Shield Emitters
Titanium Diborite Armor Plates.
These are pretty key components in producing the Caldari Tech 2 Battleships. Now it just so happens that a good chunk of people's bpcs finished inventing over the past 48 hours so people are buying stocks to begin production.
It doesn't help with the reported lockdown on POS's and their moon mining harvestors failing to operate. This has been the case for approximately 3 days now and it's starting to really filter through in Jita with moon materials running shortages and entreprenour's buying up the little remaining stocks to manipulate the rest. Due to the vastly limiting supply they are actually succeeding in part.
We should be seeing Rev Direct really firing off all it's cylinders right now. A lot of the stocks are at artificial highs right now and should be capitalised on. I don't see demands reaching this level again in the short term future (well they will, but supply will have increased to compensate).
The true winners out there are the day traders. Jita has been absolute chaos with phenomenal fluctuations and hugely profitable trade runs due to the market upsets. If there was ever a time to drop your mining lasers and have a dabble in the market, the past 48 hours were it.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.12.09 22:38:00 -
[10]
I suppose the "volume:12" on magpulse thruster is a typo, and it should actually read 12k ? 
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Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles
Zzz
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Posted - 2007.12.09 23:51:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Sustained Shield Emitters
Hot item someone just pointed out to me. Jita activity on this has gone from open purchase orders of around 19K per unit to over 30K per unit. As we all know when the buying price of something jumps so dramatically you can expect the sell price of something to jump as much if not more.
Sadly, as of this report (hot tip), I can not tell you why the demand for these have jumped so strongly. Looking at the market history itself you can see that the traded volume fluctuates wildly from around 25K units to a high of 160K units.
...
So to all the sustained shield emitter hoarders... have fun, profit much.
As well as Ricdic's point that these are needed for T2 ships in larger volumes than ever before, I'd like to point out that each one contains a unit of ferrogel, which has substantially increased in price over the last few days.
This sort of activity is the reason I build my own T2 components - the BPOs are cheap, and it's not a great deal of extra work for me. I don't mind passing on the POS owners' costs to my customers, but for me that's the limit.
My research services
Spreadsheets: Top speed calculation - Halo Implant stats |
Kylar Renpurs
Dusk Blade
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Posted - 2007.12.09 23:59:00 -
[12]
*cough*
Keep up the good work guys
*cough*
(looks around to see if a certain someone who thought trinity would wipe the smile off my face can see my big grin now...) 
Improve Market Competition! |
Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.10 02:31:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Akita T
I suppose the "volume:12" on magpulse thruster is a typo, and it should actually read 12k ?
Actually, no. It was the one item on Benvie's hit list that spiked as we moved. I decided to shrug it off and not pick up any on the market. Perhaps a bad choice but I feel justified with the fact that Magpulse Thrusters are only up to 26K ipu. 150% markup would have been nice but only if I was able to keep the same average price I got on those 12. I could not so... Titanium Diborite Armor PlateThe price is not as high as was previously reported. But I am very happy with the mico-spike that I benefited from. My first batch on the market, earlier in this thread, initially sold a small number of units. Then, 10 minutes later, the same person bought out the rest of my 5K order. I rubbed my chin, hopped into a shuttle, and when I got back to Urlen I noticed that things were as I thought. He bought me out and relisted at 62K+ ipu. So I applauded and sent him a clear message... I put another 5k more on the market at 0.01 isk less than the 5k he tried flipping on me. I had to go to a holiday dinner sadly or I'd have toyed with that market some more. When I got back it appears that 5K I listed at 62K -0.01 isk sold off and the Jita market now has sell orders at 33K and higher. (But reasonably so.) However the amount available is not close to the regional traded volume, not by a quarter. So even if you look at the activity and say half of all sales are "relistings" that still means current supply is way under normal demand. And the battleship builds are not yet started. It is a good time to be a market uber-ho is it not?
My Latest Auction!! |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.12.10 02:47:00 -
[14]
Me, after an initial small sale when prices hit an all-time high (mainly to recoup initial investment from almost 3 months ago), I'm waiting for the decryptor market to finish the "backlash downward oscillations" it was bound to have (with component prices lashing up and all that "can't build stuff yet"), and sell the rest at a leisurely pace in a couple of weeks or so when component prices finish stabilizing too
1|2|3|4|5. |
Ricdic
Caldari
Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd
Zzz
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Posted - 2007.12.10 05:31:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Akita T
Me, after an initial small sale when prices hit an all-time high (mainly to recoup initial investment from almost 3 months ago), I'm waiting for the decryptor market to finish the "backlash downward oscillations" it was bound to have (with component prices lashing up and all that "can't build stuff yet"), and sell the rest at a leisurely pace in a couple of weeks or so when component prices finish stabilizing too
Dunno. Through EBANK I purchased 350m worth of Installation Guides about a month prior to Trinity. I purchased at 23.3m and have now resold at 31.5m. Fairly small quantities but these decryptors especially (probably the top used one in game atm) have definetly yielded us a 25% or so profit margin over the last 1.5 months or so.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.12.10 17:45:00 -
[16]
I bought Installation Guides between 8 and 12 mil, sold some of them at prices between 35-45 mil.
Bought Interface Alignment charts at 800k-1.2 mil, sold a couple at somewhere around 4 mil.
Bought User guides for prices between 200k and 400k for most, sold few at roughly 1.5 mil.
The greatest amount of units purchased were a little less than 3 months ago.
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Benvie
Benvie Enterprises
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Posted - 2007.12.10 19:15:00 -
[17]
Don't know where else to put this so I'll put it here. My harddrive failed. Conveniently I had already ordered an entirely new computer with delivery expected on Wednesday so hopefully I'll be back on then. Until then I have nearly no internet access. Shar has full access to sell things in accordance with the goal of the IPO and I trust his judgment on those matters, as I'm sure everyone else does.
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Benvie
Benvie Enterprises
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Posted - 2007.12.10 19:21:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Kazuo Ishiguro
As well as Ricdic's point that these are needed for T2 ships in larger volumes than ever before, I'd like to point out that each one contains a unit of ferrogel, which has substantially increased in price over the last few days.
I know we're still keeping most of this stuff secret until it sells, but I'd just like to take a bow on this one. I staked fully one third of RDIR on the future of Ferrogel alone. I had some pretty in-depth spreadsheets looking at components in new tech 2 ships and Ferrogel specifically is overrepresented compared to other moon minerals, and I really pushed to stock up on that. From the numbers Shar posted it looks like it is going to pay off and then some.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.12.10 21:07:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Benvie
Originally by: Kazuo Ishiguro
As well as Ricdic's point that these are needed for T2 ships in larger volumes than ever before, I'd like to point out that each one contains a unit of ferrogel, which has substantially increased in price over the last few days.
I know we're still keeping most of this stuff secret until it sells, but I'd just like to take a bow on this one. I staked fully one third of RDIR on the future of Ferrogel alone. I had some pretty in-depth spreadsheets looking at components in new tech 2 ships and Ferrogel specifically is overrepresented compared to other moon minerals, and I really pushed to stock up on that. From the numbers Shar posted it looks like it is going to pay off and then some.
I love investing in smart people with good IPO's
Just curious, what are your initial impressions on the impact of the increase in size from 15 to 30 billion? Did it make any difference? If so, hurt or help? I'd imagine it helped since you could drive prices up through your own speculation. But would love to hear you and/or Shar give some first hand knowledge as to this topic.
Tanking Setups Compared
Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained |
Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.10 21:22:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Shadarle
Just curious, what are your initial impressions on the impact of the increase in size from 15 to 30 billion? Did it make any difference? If so, hurt or help? I'd imagine it helped since you could drive prices up through your own speculation. But would love to hear you and/or Shar give some first hand knowledge as to this topic.
Well, I'd say help as it simply allowed us more inventory. Other than that I think being only 30b in funds limited us greatly. We are, in truth, a small fish in the market manipulation segment. The other limitation was, as was speculated way back, the time frame of our enacting this fund. We did it just in time to have success but we really missed our chance to be massively successful. I'd go more into some of the things I'm having to do right now to help my market but that would also disclose techniques. And you know how much we all hate that kind of thing eh?
My Latest Auction!! |
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Benvie
Benvie Enterprises
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Posted - 2007.12.10 22:33:00 -
[21]
Having 30b allowed me to be a bit more enthusiastic with my choices but ultimately didn't allow me to move the market in a meaningful way. It definitely didn't hurt the return rate. Having more ISK allowed me to invest a bit more broadly and probably increased my success odds. I'm fairly certain I could have successfully invested 100b with nearly the same return rate.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.11 16:10:00 -
[22]
Funny story on Titanium Diborite Armor Plates (again). A came back to Jita and the prices were in the upper 90K range. So having some stock I threw up 5k at -0.01isk of the market. In 2 minutes it was undercut three times. So I said hmmmmm and then put up 10K at 80K profit. (I purchased my stock at an average of 9K per unit)
In a minute flat it was snapped up. I then put another 10k up at 85K per unit. 1 unit bought. I sent the buyer of the 10,000 + 1 unit an eve mailed titled "Nibble Nibble".
I call this technique, "It's a pretty worm. Who cares about the hook!" My actual hopes are to get the market to buy me out even though I'm not making as much as I could. Better for me to get out with as much as I can get without having to fight for it.
And, to the Jita market watchers out there, I'm starting to do that with other items too. So I'd suggest if you buy up something and see my name, contact me for the remainder at the same price or I will tank the market on that item.
Gleefully.
My Latest Auction!! |
Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.11 23:26:00 -
[23]
Okay some upto date numbers for those interested:
Unspent Isk 1,361,394,871.16
Total Sales 14,013,324,243.58
Inventory @ Spec Value 26,980,564,540.54
- Benvie's Share To Date -1,605,323,952.51
40,749,959,702.77
NAV 1,358,331.99 per share
If anyone is wondering I've also calculated up a second scenario presentation valuing the remaining inventory at purchase price:
Unspent Isk 1,361,394,871.16
Total Sales 14,013,324,243.58
Inventory @ Pruchase Value 21,814,944,916.26
- Benvie's Share To Date -1,605,323,952.51
35,584,340,078.49
Faux Nav 1,186,144.67 per share
If you choose to go with this scenario as a performance indicator it should be mentioned that the 14 billion in sales was generated by selling off only 7 billion of the inventory. That is 7 billion that was actually spent. That puts the fund performance average at roughly 200%. If you wish to view the Speculated prices, as has been being reported, then the fund's inventory at the last report was valued at roughly 35 billion. That means that from the last speculated report we have made 14 billion in sales on 9 billion of inventory. This would put the fund at a performance average of 150%. The truth is: The fund still has well over 1/3rd of it's initial inventory still in hand. Moving this is not going to be prompt nor easy. However neither has the ongoing sales and we've done this well so far via all means up to hook & crook. However anyone wishing to start cashing out may contact me regarding the number of shares they wish to redeem and we will honor them at the fair price of 1,272,238.33 per share. (That being the halfway point between both scenario NAV values.) The two most major shareholders, at ipo, may eve mail their e-mail addresses to me if they wish to have copies of my spreadsheets made available to them. (Even if they are somewhat cluttered =))
My Latest Auction!! |
Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.12.12 03:07:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
The two most major shareholders, at ipo, may eve mail their e-mail addresses to me if they wish to have copies of my spreadsheets made available to them. (Even if they are somewhat cluttered =))[/justify]
I believe that one of them is me and I think I know who the other is. When this is all said and done I will send you an eve-mail. I'm happy to wait a bit longer for this to finish up before redeeming my shares.
Tanking Setups Compared
Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained |
FastLearner
Fury Holdings
Brutally Clever Empire
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Posted - 2007.12.12 03:40:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Shadarle
Originally by: Shar Tegral
The two most major shareholders, at ipo, may eve mail their e-mail addresses to me if they wish to have copies of my spreadsheets made available to them. (Even if they are somewhat cluttered =))[/justify]
I believe that one of them is me and I think I know who the other is. When this is all said and done I will send you an eve-mail. I'm happy to wait a bit longer for this to finish up before redeeming my shares.
Pretty sure I'm the second one. And I'm in no rush either.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.12.12 04:18:00 -
[26]
Originally by: FastLearner
Originally by: Shadarle
Originally by: Shar Tegral
The two most major shareholders, at ipo, may eve mail their e-mail addresses to me if they wish to have copies of my spreadsheets made available to them. (Even if they are somewhat cluttered =))[/justify]
I believe that one of them is me and I think I know who the other is. When this is all said and done I will send you an eve-mail. I'm happy to wait a bit longer for this to finish up before redeeming my shares.
Pretty sure I'm the second one. And I'm in no rush either.
Figured you were the other, but wasn't going to name you just in case you had become shy 
Tanking Setups Compared
Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained |
Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.12 04:30:00 -
[27]
Originally by: FastLearner
Pretty sure I'm the second one. And I'm in no rush either.
The buy back offer was not targeted specifically to either of you. It is a very general offer to anyone with RDIR shares looking to liquidate early. Since the only way to make a profit from these shares is to liquidate at some point (for those that don't already know this is a pure growth stock issue) I thought it fair to have a buy back in place now that there is significant liquid isk available. Now, the offer to you both regarding spreadsheets... Again I'm just thinking ahead. As the reports grow of success (and I slice of isk for Benvie) I thought it best to plainly demonstrate the bookkeeping that is being done. Benvie (and Ricdic due to our ebank efforts) are both privy to my online version of Ray's Sexy... so they can somewhat attest to the activity. Again, just trying to help define what is good governance by my actions as well as my words. Meh.
My Latest Auction!! |
FastLearner
Fury Holdings
Brutally Clever Empire
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Posted - 2007.12.12 04:33:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Originally by: FastLearner
Pretty sure I'm the second one. And I'm in no rush either.
The buy back offer was not targeted specifically to either of you. It is a very general offer to anyone with RDIR shares looking to liquidate early. Since the only way to make a profit from these shares is to liquidate at some point (for those that don't already know this is a pure growth stock issue) I thought it fair to have a buy back in place now that there is significant liquid isk available. Now, the offer to you both regarding spreadsheets... Again I'm just thinking ahead. As the reports grow of success (and I slice of isk for Benvie) I thought it best to plainly demonstrate the bookkeeping that is being done. Benvie (and Ricdic due to our ebank efforts) are both privy to my online version of Ray's Sexy... so they can somewhat attest to the activity. Again, just trying to help define what is good governance by my actions as well as my words. Meh.
I've no complaints at all about the way the IPO's been run. It's done what it said it would do - and seems to be making profits in line with what I'd anticipated. I also like the buy-back option: hopefully some people take you up on it :)
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.12.12 04:53:00 -
[29]
Originally by: FastLearner
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Originally by: FastLearner
Pretty sure I'm the second one. And I'm in no rush either.
The buy back offer was not targeted specifically to either of you. It is a very general offer to anyone with RDIR shares looking to liquidate early. Since the only way to make a profit from these shares is to liquidate at some point (for those that don't already know this is a pure growth stock issue) I thought it fair to have a buy back in place now that there is significant liquid isk available. Now, the offer to you both regarding spreadsheets... Again I'm just thinking ahead. As the reports grow of success (and I slice of isk for Benvie) I thought it best to plainly demonstrate the bookkeeping that is being done. Benvie (and Ricdic due to our ebank efforts) are both privy to my online version of Ray's Sexy... so they can somewhat attest to the activity. Again, just trying to help define what is good governance by my actions as well as my words. Meh.
I've no complaints at all about the way the IPO's been run. It's done what it said it would do - and seems to be making profits in line with what I'd anticipated. I also like the buy-back option: hopefully some people take you up on it :)
Ditto.
Tanking Setups Compared
Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained |
Treelox
Amarr
Market Jihadist Revolutionary Party
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Posted - 2007.12.12 04:57:00 -
[30]
Not that I am a big player in this venture by any stretch of the mind, but I plan on riding the wave till the shore line. I there might be a point where it would be smart to get out early to get the max profit return, but dammit I am here to gamble. I'm holding this hand till the dealer cashes out.
Thanks for the contious updates, Benvie and Shar. Its been a fun and unique investment, and I hope to continue enjoying it.
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