Algorithm 5
Caldari
Hakata Group
Blade.
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Posted - 2007.12.11 11:21:00 -
[1]
Speaking as a speculator with 6b in the market atm... can anyone loan me 2b against a dread as security? :)
More to the point though, the entire point of a market is to establish fair value for goods. And more importantly, to establish the future fair price for goods.
If an supply/demand event changes the fundamental value of a good (like, say, the need to produce huge amounts of t2 ships) then the market should ideally move to those new value levels instantaneously, with perfect accuracy.
Of course, due to uncertainty this is impossible.
Thus, the market is a gambling arena, where the participants bet on future events.
For example, I've bet that Hyperflurite pricing isn't sustainable to sell at a level half of what it costs to produce :)
I've bought that market (3b isk) and moved it to where my t2 supply/demand pricing model suggests that the new "fair price" is (cost of production plus typical simple reaction profits after pos operation costs, etc).
This is the normal healthy sustainable behaviour of a market.
People that want to build t2 ships have most likely speculated on these new prices too, by stocking up in advance as a hedge against market rises.
And lets not forget jump freighters. Because there's none for sale yet, we have no idea of what pricing or demand will be like. So there's a ton of people beavering away building vast amounts of t2 capital components.
And those puppies suck advanced materials like it's going out of style.
There's going to be manipulators around, sure, but it never lasts. You can't beat the market in the long term.
Part of the ship reactor prices is also the dysprosium/promethium problem. A fixed number of moons means fixed supply, with a massive new demand.
Although hopefully promethium prices will calm down a little once BRUCE discover and pos up the two promethium moons that have been offline near the u-s outpost :)
But my pricing models suggest robust profitability all down the dyspro value chain, so we could well see that hit 80k or even 100k purely on fixed supply and huge demand.
Which means there's some very lucky people out there sitting on moons worth 1-2b a week. I expect to see regular and constant fighting over them.
And god help anyone in low-sec that can't fit a cyno jammer (and I know there's at least one dyspro low-sec moon out there somewhere).
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