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Neurotic Cat
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Posted - 2004.03.24 20:04:00 -
[1]
When your research agent offers you a new tech 2 BPO you have the opportunity to turn it down and continue the research project.
For those that have 'let it ride' what was your success rate?
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Lucre
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Posted - 2004.03.24 22:03:00 -
[2]
Turned down one (micro cap boost II) at about 2k rp.
Then turned down a second (small energy transfer II) at about 7k rp.
Yes, it's a calculated risk. I still may not "win big". But if we can trust the lottery mechanism then I'm maximising my chance of doing so.
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slacker
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Posted - 2004.03.25 00:12:00 -
[3]
I believe this might have been covered in the last CSM - declining is the way to get the better BPs.
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slacker |
Maggie Thatcher
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Posted - 2004.03.25 00:21:00 -
[4]
Wishes she had the chance to turn down a BP!
Perhaps my time will come :)
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.25 00:45:00 -
[5]
 Quote:
I believe this might have been covered in the last CSM - declining is the way to get the better BPs.
Erm no.
What was "covered" in the last CSM was a badly put together excuse to cover up a potentially massive problem with the lottery, by a dev who didn't fully comprehend the issue being raised.
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Phaethon
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Posted - 2004.03.25 01:03:00 -
[6]
There's nothing wrong with the lottery.
Lady-Luck who draws the numbers from the hat just has really really sticky fingers and bad eyesight, so now and again a number gets stuck on her hand.
WTB. Infifitrator I drones |
Ecchus
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Posted - 2004.03.25 03:36:00 -
[7]
If the lottery is truly based upon random numbers turning down a BPO makes no difference whatsoever in your chances of getting another BPO.
It makes no difference how often you play a lottery, your odds of winning never change because the odds are reset at the beginning of each new lottery. When you turn down a BPO, you get the same odds again. |
Rancid Mare
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Posted - 2004.03.25 11:15:00 -
[8]
it appears the best tatic is to accept a BPO of any kind.
reciving one tech 2 BPO seems to dramaticaly increase your chances of a 2nd 3rd 4th tech 2 BPO regaurdless of the ammount of RP's you have.
Rancid Mare of the EveMarshals.
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Tanner Mirabel
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Posted - 2004.03.25 13:02:00 -
[9]
If you get offered a BPO the choices are accept and lose all your research points or decline and continue to increase your RP total. The only way declining can be seen to improve your chances is if you are looking at the number of chances you have of getting the next BP. If you get offered a small BP at 7000RP and turn it down then when the next BP comes out you have 7000 more chances than you would have done if you would have accepted. When you consider the size of the RP pool 7000 more chances wouldn't really improve your odds much at all.
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Lucre
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Posted - 2004.03.25 15:45:00 -
[10]
Quote:
If the lottery is truly based upon random numbers turning down a BPO makes no difference whatsoever in your chances of getting another BPO.
Of course it makes a difference. If you accept a bpo your rp total is reset to zero. So you have corresponding fewer 'tickets' in the next lottery. If you don't accept it then your rp's 'ride' and give you more chances next time.
Say you have 8000rp and turn down a bpo. And say the next lottery is 1000 rp later. You then have 9000 chances of winning instead of 1000 chances. Yes, your chance is still pretty damn small because of the overall size of the rp pool, but it is still NINE TIMES larger than it would otherwise have been...
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McWatt
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Posted - 2004.03.25 17:17:00 -
[11]
Quote:
Erm no.
What was "covered" in the last CSM was a badly put together excuse to cover up a potentially massive problem with the lottery, by a dev who didn't fully comprehend the issue being raised.
nicely put.
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Neurotic Cat
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Posted - 2004.03.25 20:17:00 -
[12]
Would be nice if you had the choice of taking the small widget or spending the time to research it up to a medium widget.
I decided that I didn't have the patience to wait for another one. I took it and told my agent to get to work on the next project.
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Flewyd Precision
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Posted - 2004.03.25 21:57:00 -
[13]
While it is true that if you had 8,000 rp and held on for 9,000 to go towards the next lotto you would have a better chance of winning, it's not 9 times greater. If that were the case, we'd all hit the lotto in real life by buying a few extra tickets. You have to look at the size of the entire rp pool to realize just what your odds are of winning. My philosophy is simple....take the BP. You have such slim chances of winning anyhow that an extra 8,000 rp in a pool of hundreds of thousands actually doesn't increase your odds by much.
ie. Assume you have 10,000 rp and your friend has 1,000 rp. Let's say the rp pool is 500,000 (it's probably larger). You would have a 2% chance of winning something while your friend would have a .2% chance. In reality the pool is probably much larger so the spread between you and your friend would be even less.
To have a Tech 2 BP + only 1.8% less of a chance of getting ANOTHER one sounds like better odds to me 
Just my 2 isk...
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Phaethon
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Posted - 2004.03.26 00:17:00 -
[14]
From what we have heard about the lottery draw routine atm. Just take the bpo. There's a good chance that you will get more bpo's.
NOT because you accept or reject, but because you got offered the bpo in the first case.
WTB. Infifitrator I drones |
Ertai Vodalion
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Posted - 2004.03.26 07:28:00 -
[15]
whatever the chances of winning a better BPO are - I know I would never turn down an offer ...
to hit the jackpot is so unlikely that grabbing what you can get seems to be the best tactic in my mind.
me= Rocket science - 7k RP - no offer yet
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Larre DeBlade
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Posted - 2004.03.26 08:20:00 -
[16]
Edited by: Larre DeBlade on 26/03/2004 08:41:37
I have a R&D agent from the release of the R&D agents, and still no luck but I recently bought the most expensive skill in the game and that paid off in a BPO after only 150 RP. It seams that the issue with people who has low RPs still have a bigger chance to win the lottery over those who have a lot of points.
Any comment on that?
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Simen Looswe
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Posted - 2004.03.26 12:36:00 -
[17]
in reply to Flewyd:
"While it is true that if you had 8,000 rp and held on for 9,000 to go towards the next lotto you would have a better chance of winning, it's not 9 times greater"
& Lucre
"Of course it makes a difference. If you accept a bpo your rp total is reset to zero. So you have corresponding fewer 'tickets' in the next lottery. If you don't accept it then your rp's 'ride' and give you more chances next time."
You are both right. As long as you hold on to your RP's you are
relatively increasing your chance of winning, compared to accepting the offer and the chance of getting another offer. Problem is... the odds are so incredibly small it resembles the REAL lottery. 9 times a very small number is still a very small number.
As long as we cant look at the code responsible for the t2 BPO lottery, we can only assume randomness as stated by the devs. It just occurs to me that some people have EXRAORDINARY luck.(being offered 2 BPO's or even more...) And there seem to be a lot of people with this type of luck..... Therefore i think there is more to this lottery than mere randomness.
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Lucre
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Posted - 2004.03.26 13:23:00 -
[18]
Quote:
While it is true that if you had 8,000 rp and held on for 9,000 to go towards the next lotto you would have a better chance of winning, it's not 9 times greater.
May I take it you never did any probability theory? If you have 9000 tickets for a draw instead of 1000 tickets then your chance of winning *is* 9 times greater. Mathematical fact.
Quote:
If that were the case, we'd all hit the lotto in real life by buying a few extra tickets.
Your analogy is iffy as extra lotto tickets cost more money. However if someone offered you *free* lotto tickets, would you choose to have nine free tickets or just one? I presume (since it's a no-brainer!) that you'd take the 9 and not say "Ah, I have such slim chances of winning anyhow that an extra 8 tickets in a pool of hundreds of thousands actually doesn't increase my odds by much"? :-)
Quote:
ie. Assume you have 10,000 rp and your friend has 1,000 rp. Let's say the rp pool is 500,000 (it's probably larger). You would have a 2% chance of winning something while your friend would have a .2% chance.
To have a Tech 2 BP + only 1.8% less of a chance of getting ANOTHER one sounds like better odds to me
But that "only 1.8%" means you are TEN TIMES more likely to win than your friend. An extra 1.8% chance doesn't sound like much, but reducing your chances of winning by a factor of 10 does. To me, at least.
But ultimately it's a case of how big you want to gamble. And I prefer to forget the small wins and so maximise the odds (however poor!) of winning big. Your choice is up to you! :-)
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Epernay
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Posted - 2004.03.26 14:09:00 -
[19]
This is not just a probability issue. The question is clouded by a rather difficult-to-quantify parameter: How much do you want the smaller BP?
If you don't want it at all, then of course hanging on with your tickets for a bigger win is the best option. But if you're turning down something you'd quite like to have in the interest of getting something bigger and better, well that's not such a good idea.
And that's a problem each researcher can only ask of themselves.
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Athule Snanm
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Posted - 2004.03.26 22:19:00 -
[20]
Quote:
Your analogy is iffy as extra lotto tickets cost more money. However if someone offered you *free* lotto tickets, would you choose to have nine free tickets or just one? I presume (since it's a no-brainer!) that you'd take the 9 and not say "Ah, I have such slim chances of winning anyhow that an extra 8 tickets in a pool of hundreds of thousands actually doesn't increase my odds by much"? :-)
Ah, but the extra RP 'tickets' aren't free - certainly not if you are doing R&D missions. Personally I think it's well worth getting as good an agent as you can get and it's worth training up RPM and the appropriate science and social skills if you don't have anything more pressing to train up. You could describe those RP points as being 'free' as you aren't tied up whilst they're building up. Beyond that doing the R&D missions (especially for multiple agents if you have them) is pretty much, IMHO, a waste of time and exactly like buying 10 tickets in a lottery and expecting to be a sure fire winner.
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Doomheim - EVE's only hygiene! |
Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.26 22:43:00 -
[21]
Have to say that i dont really see any point in doing the extra R&D missions either.
As Athule has said elsewhere it doesnt appreciable increase your chances of getting a win "at all".
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Flewyd Precision
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Posted - 2004.03.28 03:07:00 -
[22]
Ok...I didn't read this post for a few days and now to defend myself. If I buy 1 lotto ticket my chances are about as good as if I bought 1000. You do the math. I have taken statistics as one of MANY math courses and know what I'm talking about. To say that by having 1000 extra RP you increase your chances of winning by 10....that's not mathmatical fact....that's fairy tale land. Sorry....go back and check your math again. A little hint for the calculation:
There are more RP's in the lotto than 10,000 
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ZootAlures
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Posted - 2004.03.28 03:14:00 -
[23]
Edited by: ZootAlures on 28/03/2004 03:22:00
Edited by: ZootAlures on 28/03/2004 03:20:51
Quote:
Have to say that i dont really see any point in doing the extra R&D missions either.
As Athule has said elsewhere it doesnt appreciable increase your chances of getting a win "at all".
I think it do gives an apreciable increase.
Simple example:
If Joe (researching starship engineering) has 0.76% chance of winning the lottery everytime, he will have 78.2% chance of getting at least one Ship BPO if 200 BPOs are released in that field.
If Joe is idling his agent and not doing R&D missions (0.38% chance of winning the lottery) he has a 53.3% chance of getting at least one BPO.
If 100 BPOs are released the chances are 53.3%/ 31.6% of getting a BPO
If 300 BP0s are released the chances are 89.9% / 68.1% of getting a BPO
But you will probably not get the BP you want:)
/Zoot
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Zoltaris
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Posted - 2004.03.28 04:00:00 -
[24]
What are his chances of never getting a BP if there is a TOTAL of 100 BP that are released and he has 25k pts in a field with a total of 5M pts (and he keep the same proportions, i.e. he will have 50k pts once there is 10M pts in that field of research) (correct me if i'm worng, but he has 100 x 0.5% chances of getting a BP, right?
Let's say there is 200 researchers with 25k RP each (for a total of 5M in the field) and 100 BP are "won" over time, there will still be at least half of them that won't get any BP, and some that will get 2 or more...
So, what are his odds of NOT getting any of these 100 BP ?? (this should be over 50%)
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ZootAlures
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Posted - 2004.03.28 04:13:00 -
[25]
Edited by: ZootAlures on 28/03/2004 04:21:25
Edited by: ZootAlures on 28/03/2004 04:19:38
Quote:
What are his chances of never getting a BP if there is a TOTAL of 100 BP that are released and he has 25k pts in a field with a total of 5M pts (and he keep the same proportions, i.e. he will have 50k pts once there is 10M pts in that field of research) (correct me if i'm worng, but he has 100 x 0.5% chances of getting a BP, right?
He has 1-(1-0.005)^100 = 39.4% chance of winning at least one BP
The odds of not getting a BP is 60.6%
... and if only one BP is released the chance of winning that one is
1-(1-0.005)^1 = 0.5% :-)
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Zoltaris
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Posted - 2004.03.28 04:29:00 -
[26]
Edited by: Zoltaris on 28/03/2004 04:37:52
So, if we replace 80% of the 25k researchers by 25 x 1k (for each 25k) researchers the odds stay the same (the total pts in the field stay at 5M) for our guy with 25k, but there will be much more low RP winners than high RP
And there will be many of them that will keep researching to 50k, 75k, 100k and prob. more to never ever get a BP (60% odds after all)
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