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Lindsay Fox
Disciples of Comus
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Posted - 2008.02.25 06:16:00 -
[1]
disclaimer: I make no claims to be an expert on the subject of logistics etc in alliance warfare. feel free to correct my faulty assumptions.
I pulled some numbers out of bob's killboard and did a little excel work on them. In summary:
January: 5688 Coalition deaths, 1453 BoB deaths
February: 4793 Coalition deaths, 1583 BoB deaths
Now, these numbers don't really mean anything in and of themselves. That's a kill ratio of about 3:1 in bob's favour, but if you totalled up the number of towers killed or systems taken it would be far more lopsided the other way.
Secondly, the costs incurred on each side are probably not what you would expect from those numbers.
- vast majority of coalition deaths have been T1 ships, I think it's safe to assume 99% had premium insurance
- if coalition is building these ships themselves, the loss for each ship is probably only the fittings
- if coalition is using t1 fittings and building those as well, they may actually be making a profit on certain ships
vs.
- majority of bob ships lost are T2, not insured, and fitted expensively compared to the coalition
- the average bob member is an order of magnitude more wealthy than the average coalition member
I guess my conclusion would be that both sides can afford financially to keep doing this for a loooong time, but if I were to guess, I would think BoB would run out of money first.
I think, however, that this war will end because one side stops turning up, and it seems reasonable that the coalition side will lose interest first. It really does suck when you lose 3 ships for every 1 you kill. And a lot of the coalition members are uneasy bedfellows at best. I'm sure the NAPfest will be losing its allure for many of the parties involved.
Thoughts?
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Sarwaka Foehammer
The Same 20 Guys
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Posted - 2008.02.25 06:23:00 -
[2]
I think the days of multi region spanning alliances are nearing their end, I thought that back in 2006 too but I was wrong. This time I hope I am right.
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Agmar
Game-Over
Insurgency
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Posted - 2008.02.25 06:25:00 -
[3]
 Originally by: Lindsay Fox
- if coalition is building these ships themselves, the loss for each ship is probably only the fittings
And the opportunity cost of acquiring the minerals, paying for the fuel to jump the completed ships to battle lines and the general hassle of building ships.
Recruiting. |
Brun Thorvald
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Posted - 2008.02.25 10:18:00 -
[4]
The flip side of losses impacting morale is the Coalition appears to be taking territory, and that has to be good for morale.
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Tholarim
Amarr
Destructive Influence
Band of Brothers
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Posted - 2008.02.25 10:26:00 -
[5]
post with your main or don't post.
Bob is dead topic # 36721
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saphire firefly
Federal Navy Academy
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Posted - 2008.02.25 10:42:00 -
[6]
Edited by: saphire firefly on 25/02/2008 10:43:22
lols.
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Tess Tori
The Commissum
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Posted - 2008.02.25 10:43:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Lindsay Fox
- majority of bob ships lost are T2, not insured, and fitted expensively compared to the coalition
What makes you think their not insured exactly? All bob battleships are insured at max if their personal owned, its policy. And the mass majority are corporate bs, members simply sign up to the ship programs for a fee and the corp issue them corp-insured t2 fitted bs for the rest of their bob career (This is atleast true of the capitalist corps), as for the communist corps, you figure it out.
If you must make a post like this, atleast have your facts straight before you claim you understand how something works.
What you need to be looking at isnt who dies in what, But who come's back to the fight in what afterwards.
As of the 21st of febuary 874 goon BS kills, of that number 599 (69%) goon bs have been replaced on the field with any ship type. The average return time being 2.5 days. This means active in combat on a killmail or loss mail.
Of those 874 goon BS kills 384 (44%) have been replaced on the field with another BS. The average return time being 4 days.
So with that said, and the participation level's of Coalition gangs at large atm been bellow 130 members at their peek time, as opposed to 450 members just 2 weeks ago, one has to ask... Does the loss of a titan realy not effect them like they claim? Or have they fallen victim to the same curse that has followed every single titan loss before it.
This put together with the fact their supply lines are over stretched, months of having to manage sov claiming POS's across the universe with nothing but rouqal's and increased lack of success on the battle field despite having the numbers to flip systems consistent failure has lead to a lack of motivation.
And ofc... One does not simply walken into Nol.
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Malachon Draco
eXceed Inc.
eXceed.
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Posted - 2008.02.25 10:51:00 -
[8]
No side will run out of money, ever. No matter how many BoB mining POS get blown up, or how many ships the Goons lose. Its too easy to get the isk to fight forever. Supply lines are IMO also not an issue. Delve is close to Empire, there are NPC stations, resupply for both sides is easy. The only thing matters in respect to continueing to show up is the will to fight.
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HEY LISTEN
i swear this is true
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Posted - 2008.02.25 10:55:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Tess Tori
Originally by: Lindsay Fox
- majority of bob ships lost are T2, not insured, and fitted expensively compared to the coalition
What makes you think their not insured exactly? All bob battleships are insured at max if their personal owned, its policy. And the mass majority are corporate bs, members simply sign up to the ship programs for a fee and the corp issue them corp-insured t2 fitted bs for the rest of their bob career (This is atleast true of the capitalist corps), as for the communist corps, you figure it out.
If you must make a post like this, atleast have your facts straight before you claim you understand how something works.
What you need to be looking at isnt who dies in what, But who come's back to the fight in what afterwards.
As of the 21st of febuary 874 goon BS kills, of that number 599 (69%) goon bs have been replaced on the field with any ship type. The average return time being 2.5 days. This means active in combat on a killmail or loss mail.
Of those 874 goon BS kills 384 (44%) have been replaced on the field with another BS. The average return time being 4 days.
So with that said, and the participation level's of Coalition gangs at large atm been bellow 130 members at their peek time, as opposed to 450 members just 2 weeks ago, one has to ask... Does the loss of a titan realy not effect them like they claim? Or have they fallen victim to the same curse that has followed every single titan loss before it.
This put together with the fact their supply lines are over stretched, months of having to manage sov claiming POS's across the universe with nothing but rouqal's and increased lack of success on the battle field despite having the numbers to flip systems consistent failure has lead to a lack of motivation.
And ofc... One does not simply walken into Nol.
Throwing any ship let alone a battleship into a frozen screen over and over for space you will never use will eventualy get you down. I think we have all done it and tbqh i personaly left that sort of EVE play long ago and will never return to it.
The ppl who are still doing it are either very bitter BOB victims or deluded noobish players who have been convinced that they are doing all that eve has to offer in warfare.
I hope these newer players eventualy see that blobbing for space they will never profit from because others tell them that this is how eve is played is just daft and actualy begin to enjoy the game in smaller well run gangs.
Marakor for godhood |
Papa Ina
GoonFleet
GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2008.02.25 10:57:00 -
[10]
Okay, new rule for posting in terrible alt threads. Only reply with terrible alts! I'll start.
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VCBee 493
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Posted - 2008.02.25 10:57:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Papa Ina
Okay, new rule for posting in terrible alt threads. Only reply with terrible alts! I'll start.
Hurf durf k:d ratio lalalalala
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Seymour Alcolaya
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Posted - 2008.02.25 11:01:00 -
[12]
"I guess my conclusion would be that both sides can afford financially to keep doing this for a loooong time, but if I were to guess, I would think BoB would run out of money first."
I think you are wrong here. A t1 BS is still going to cost 30-40m with insurance while a t2 one might cost 50-60m. You say Bob are killing 3 for every one they lose? Plus the majority of Bob have been living in 0.0 for 4 years or more and have billions in their wallets compared to many goons who are still mining to get their first BS? The Bob corps themseleves have been renting out a large section of 0.0 for years and producing lots of t2 stuff so they are very rich also.
It seems to me, that BoB will never run out of ISK. Not when the corps have hundreds of billion (trillions?) and the majority of the members have billions or tens of billions of ISK. The only way this could change is if the coalition maintain a 200+ capital fleet in delve and cause Bob to lose 5-10 capitals a day. It is not clear in this instance who would run out of money first Bob or RSF.
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Shadoo
North Eastern Swat
Pandemic Legion
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Posted - 2008.02.25 11:21:00 -
[13]
OK -- I'm bored and will bite with a soap-box.
There's one thing that will not be a big contributor to the outcome of the war -- and that's isk.
Perhaps it might have been something to worry about 2 years ago, but with the eve economy as is and the plentyful opportunities to make isk in empire + null sec... There will always be enough isk to buy ship + T2 fitting and get it carrier lifted to the field at very little cost.
It's simply too easy to make isk for the average war participant to really matter in the outcome, no matter which side you're on.
You can afk-mission, trade, invent, manufacture, 0.0 rat, explore, etc and easily make enough to replace 2-3 BS losses per day. It takes about 10 minutes to carrier lift to delve 50 BSes from low sec empire where 2 alt freighters hauled them to for any alliance, even the smaller ones like us.
The thing that will decide the outcome is participation. The pool the coalition side atm has to draw from is significantly larger, thus thou noticable -- when 2-3 large parties go take a break for a week or two it doesn't really always effect the territorial outcome too much.
BoB + allies obviously have a much smaller base to draw from, but on the other hand they are fighting for their home where they've stocked up supplies to last them for a long time. They have less logistics to worry about and thus can use member base more efficiently. They can't really afford to go take a break however as an alliance... every time they do so -- they lose another piece of the island.
As long as the coalition side members who're taking a break -- do return refreshed... there really only can be one outcome. But one thing is for sure... BoB's fighting for it every inch of the way.
It really is a very interesting war to be part of, something to look back on for the time to come when hopefully such large multi-year drawn out wars will be in the history. I don't think anyone truly enjoys this type of gang-bang territorial warfare in EVE and hopefully DEVs are taking note to change the mechanics for the better eventually...
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Emrod
Legion Du Lys
GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2008.02.25 11:34:00 -
[14]
COAD is for morons.......hey...wait a minute 0o !!! |
Dafuzz
Gallente
Evolution
Band of Brothers
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Posted - 2008.02.25 11:36:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Shadoo
As long as the coalition side members who're taking a break -- do return refreshed...
This is a good thing to hope for, and I agree with you in Spirit.
-Amen
--
-If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, riddle them with bullets.. |
Omeega
UA Industry
Red Alliance
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Posted - 2008.02.25 11:41:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Lindsay Fox
Now, these numbers don't really mean anything in and of themselves.
Highlighting the imporant part.
Don't speak english. F1,f2,f3...
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Bregolas
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Posted - 2008.02.25 14:27:00 -
[17]
I can't help but think that this war will not end due to lack of isk. There are really two things to consider.
1) Will Bob lose all their space (currently they seem to be heading that way) or will they take another region somewhere else and fight for that?
2) Will Bob continue to fight even after they lose all their space?
These are quite different, Bob may well be on the verge of losing all of their station systems (with the possibility of losing all of their sovereign systems much more distant). However, is that the end? Or will they keep fighting, maybe take space somewhere else or just live out of npc stations. One of the things I have noticed about this war is the point at which you find yourself victorious may never come. I think Bob have too much arrogance to declare loss against the likes of goons and chums. I don't think they could cope with the concept of losing to what they consider a lesser force (in terms of quality) due to it actually being a greater force (in terms of quantity).
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Daylen Drazzi
Caldari
GoonFleet
GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2008.02.25 22:38:00 -
[18]
Umm, 5000+ members, of which a thousand or so might log in during the day. Do the math.
"Ya see us Goons neva lose,
If we'r dead, we'r dead so nobody cares,
If'n we win we'v won, so's only we cares
If'n we run away we always come back later
so Goons neva lose ya see?" |
Commodore Gauss
Caldari
C0NTAINMENT
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Posted - 2008.02.25 22:50:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Lindsay Fox
Now, these numbers don't really mean anything..
This partial quote is, I think, something we can all agree on. The only numbers that do mean anything are the numbers of pilots that are taking part in offense/defense, and the numbers of pilots who return to offense/defense after losing a ship, two ships, three... Just sayin'.
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Arturus Vex
Macabre Votum
Imperial Republic Of the North
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Posted - 2008.02.25 22:51:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Lindsay Fox
disclaimer: I make no claims to be an expert on the subject of logistics etc in alliance warfare. feel free to correct my faulty assumptions.
I pulled some numbers out of bob's killboard and did a little excel work on them. In summary:
January: 5688 Coalition deaths, 1453 BoB deaths
February: 4793 Coalition deaths, 1583 BoB deaths
Now, these numbers don't really mean anything in and of themselves. That's a kill ratio of about 3:1 in bob's favour, but if you totalled up the number of towers killed or systems taken it would be far more lopsided the other way.
Secondly, the costs incurred on each side are probably not what you would expect from those numbers.
- vast majority of coalition deaths have been T1 ships, I think it's safe to assume 99% had premium insurance
- if coalition is building these ships themselves, the loss for each ship is probably only the fittings
- if coalition is using t1 fittings and building those as well, they may actually be making a profit on certain ships
vs.
- majority of bob ships lost are T2, not insured, and fitted expensively compared to the coalition
- the average bob member is an order of magnitude more wealthy than the average coalition member
I guess my conclusion would be that both sides can afford financially to keep doing this for a loooong time, but if I were to guess, I would think BoB would run out of money first.
I think, however, that this war will end because one side stops turning up, and it seems reasonable that the coalition side will lose interest first. It really does suck when you lose 3 ships for every 1 you kill. And a lot of the coalition members are uneasy bedfellows at best. I'm sure the NAPfest will be losing its allure for many of the parties involved.
Thoughts?
You also have to adjust for production capacity, lost income, etc.etc. by taking systems we haven't necessarily gained a lot of income, but it is pretty evident that bob has lost some.
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Ostr0mir
Minmatar
Shadow Group
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Posted - 2008.02.25 23:43:00 -
[21]
This k/d ratio tells me, that BoB pretty much controls the situation. They are making a stand.
According to killboards, AAA seem to have withdrawn from the war. There must be a very serious reason to do this.
BRUTOR |
SPQRMocton
Minmatar
Calmarr Technologies
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Posted - 2008.02.26 11:40:00 -
[22]
Meh,BoB is getting wacked because they are hated,I know of lots of pilots that hate BoD,and the rest is history,so unless the BoB haters die or stop hating, the war will continue,perhaps it will simmer instead of boil but I think BoB has done enough to keep the haters going
Fly reckless and take chances..............it's more fun |
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