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Gillium Rooke Rooke Logistics 0	Posted - 2012.02.18 07:08:00 - [1] - Quote Does anyone know why the price of robotics has dropped over 10k in the last week? I'm assuming either one or more of the following, but it would be nice to know for sure: 1) a few big corps/players have dropped a glut onto the market. 2) with the increased player base there's more people doing PI. 3) alliances have started producing more for themselves thus killing the demand. 4) there's been a change in rules that I am blissfully unaware of. Thanks
Vaerah Vahrokha Vahrokh Consulting 278	Posted - 2012.02.18 07:52:00 - [2] - Quote 5) The around Christmas yearly high prices cycle is over. On December, horribly looking 2 months pin bar on the monthly bar time frame. On December 1st, nicely looking 1 week pin bar on the weekly bar time frame. Buyers reacted but failed to close above BRN 80k ISK. The PB was of comparable size vs the other bars, therefore no direct inversion => expect a range market with a possible second double top later. Those two factors would tell you to unload whatever you had right at December. Auditing \| Collateral holding and insurance \| Consulting \| PLEX for Good Charity Twitter channel
Gillium Rooke Rooke Logistics 0	Posted - 2012.02.18 08:04:00 - [3] - Quote Thanks for the quick reply! In my newness, I thought the boost to robotics prices was due to the recent pos changes. Out of interest, what causes the yearly high price cycle? Increased activity over the summer then winter hols? Signup drives increasing player base?
Tauranon Weeesearch 29	Posted - 2012.02.18 08:08:00 - [4] - Quote Its a pos fuel (as well as a component to stuff like t2 drones) - until the changeover date was settled, many people had a month of loose fuel and a month of blocks in their pos + anything involved in T2 manufacture gets stretched over christmas period.
Chevalleis The Legendary Conquest Pandorum Invictus 107	Posted - 2012.02.18 08:09:00 - [5] - Quote When did VV come back?
Gillium Rooke Rooke Logistics 0	Posted - 2012.02.18 08:30:00 - [6] - Quote Thanks guys. Every time I think I've got a handle on something, I find out there's at least a dozen things I've failed to take into account.
Vaerah Vahrokha Vahrokh Consulting 278	Posted - 2012.02.18 09:55:00 - [7] - Quote Gillium Rooke wrote: Thanks for the quick reply! In my newness, I thought the boost to robotics prices was due to the recent pos changes. Out of interest, what causes the yearly high price cycle? Increased activity over the summer then winter hols? Signup drives increasing player base? Two components: supply and demand + greed and fear. The former are at the foundation of the market, the latter drive the market and the speculation. They yearly cycle: look at it like a volano effect. In particular, you'll notice how in summer most double bottoms form (strong inversion signal) as the largest buyers restock for a whole year. Summer is the best time, because the player base is at a minimum so demand is minimum and prices heavily crash. Then the big buyers purchase foundation items, from minerals to POS fuels, to T2 materials (this is a necessarily general description, each market has its own "temper"). In a perennial tug of war game between demand and supply, buyers and sellers, greed and fear, the markets will reach the yearly bottom first. Then there are 4 main possible outcomes: 1) Direct inversion or "V" shaped market or "inverse head and shoulders" that seen on a monthly graph will show a large pin bar (visibly taller than the bars preceeding it). This includes two-monthly pin bars (harder to spot). 2) Double bottom (rarely triple) or "W" shaped market, usually represented by a first pin bar, then a range market then a second price action pattern (PB / BUOB / DBLHC...). This happens when the buyers at the bottom were not strong enough so the market inertia won't let price immediately rise. Price will range and consolidate and gain the needed liquidity until one day the market literally stretches and coils down and then runs up (second bottom). 3) Very rare, price may form a round bottom in a formation called "cup", when it reaches the cup's "handle" it's time to buy. 4) Even rarer, once in a thousand times, price may form a bottom called "diamond" that will cause a massively strong inversion. At this point, the market is buyers dominated and smaller ones add on the rising price. The lack of sellers makes price rise. Every so often, buyers liquidate their positions causing a peculiar market characteristic called swings (in RL markets with short selling, there will also be short sellers to factor in). Swings don't happen everywhere. They are the "breath" of the markets. While each trader counts little by himself, the equilibrium between demand and supply is formed by the bunch of them. Unconsciously for the traders, markets reach intermediate demand / supply equilibrium levels where swings happen. These price levels are often met again and again even after 1-5-10-20-30 years later. These price levels are also optimized in their "liquidity fill strategy" and "price discovery" motions, a bit like bees can min max the space fill rate of their nests and plants can min max the light exposure on their leaves. The fill criterium used by the markets is known as Fibonacci Numbers which affect a large number of entities in nature. Some times swings come close to easy to recall numbers that are called "round numbers", like i.e. 80k ISK, 100k ISK and so on. In this case, traders tend to deviate the natural price discovery to match those numbers. I.e. if a swing would happen at 78k, it's very possible for traders to force it to 80k. After a while we get to about October and the first large sales begin to happen. Smaller traders see it as a "dip" and buy. Often this gives another chance for markets to keep rising till December-January. At this point we are at vacations time, expansion time, people stay more at home etc. so we have demand helping prices reach the top. But then, after a while, people wake up and realize the peak has been reached, as hard as they push the prices just won't go up any more. Demand chills. The large buyers now dump for huge profit, forming a pin bar. Now a perfect mirror of the 4 market conditions listed above happens again (but this time, at the top). If the dump was very large (the corresponding monthly bar high twice than the previous) the direct inversion scenario happens. A sell pin bar is an head and shoulder pattern, it's exactly like the point 1) described above, just upside down. If the dump was more spread across time or enough traders thought it was just another dip, there will be a range market (point 2) with greed pushing prices up again till a second top, where a crash will happen. If the crash is mild, we can have a 3rd top or even a weeks long range market. But one day it'll happen, price will break the range market bottom and dive down. The scenario 3) (cup pattern) is basically unexistant for when markets are at the top. The scenario 4) (diamond) can happen, but it is still very rare. Once price is on its way down, fear takes over, everyone run selling all they can till the summer expansion, where fresh demand will slow down the drop and some times stall it for a couple of months. But then it's free fall again till the year low. When everything starts again, in a next yearly cycle. Edit: Notice how markets are also fractal vs themselves so smaller and smaller "cycles within cycles" happen depending on the time scale you look at them. I.e. every week there is a little minimum at week end (after small traders dumped their weekly mined minerals / loot / etc.) then price rises till the next week end. And every day, prices mini-crash when the 2 main time zones are about to log off and micro traders sell their daily mined minerals / loot / etc. and rise afterwards. Edit2: I call them "traders" but it covers everyone. Everyone is a trader and everything is a market, because markets are "give vs take" human relations and the tug of war is everywhere at every level and on everyone. Auditing \| Collateral holding and insurance \| Consulting \| PLEX for Good Charity Twitter channel
Zevas Infinite Origins Shadow Cartel 0	Posted - 2012.02.18 12:23:00 - [8] - Quote Talk about over complicating things. The biggest factor has to be fuel blocks. The change in quantities means the amount of robotics required to fuel a tower has been reduced. Lower demand = lower value. Prices are starting settle basically.
Infinitio Krystallos Bison - Ammatar Thunder Thundering Herd 7	Posted - 2012.02.18 12:38:00 - [9] - Quote Zevas wrote: Prices are starting settle basically. That is......until the new Liquid Ozone Bottleneck is realized.
Wyke Mossari Staner Industries 156	Posted - 2012.02.18 12:42:00 - [10] - Quote Zevas wrote: Talk about over complicating things. The biggest factor has to be fuel blocks. The change in quantities means the amount of robotics required to fuel a tower has been reduced. Lower demand = lower value. Prices are starting settle basically. This plus the free fuel blocks, the prices of all has seen downwards price pressure for a month now and is starting to stabilise. Expect them to recover slowly over the next few months.
Infinitio Krystallos Bison - Ammatar Thunder Thundering Herd 7	Posted - 2012.02.18 12:44:00 - [11] - Quote Wyke Mossari wrote: This plus the free fuel blocks. Say WHAT exactly ?????????
Krixtal Icefluxor Bison - Ammatar Thunder Thundering Herd 328	Posted - 2012.02.18 13:19:00 - [12] - Quote (ignore) OMG He Spent His Free-áAURUM ! God is simply-áthe very extraordinary power of the Universe to organize Itself as percieved. -á-á- Lee Smolin "Three Roads to Quantum Gravity"
Krixtal Icefluxor Bison - Ammatar Thunder Thundering Herd 328	Posted - 2012.02.18 13:20:00 - [13] - Quote sorry.....these Forums are spawning new messages instead of quoting OMG He Spent His Free-áAURUM ! God is simply-áthe very extraordinary power of the Universe to organize Itself as percieved. -á-á- Lee Smolin "Three Roads to Quantum Gravity"
loyalslave Askold Republic University Minmatar Republic 1	Posted - 2012.02.18 17:00:00 - [14] - Quote Infinitio Krystallos wrote: Wyke Mossari wrote: This plus the free fuel blocks. Say WHAT exactly ????????? the christmas presents, there was the remap, the fuel blocks (blocks or bpos) or other things ( iirc ammo, a destoyer [??] , AUR ....). doubtful that they still have a impact though
Krixtal Icefluxor Bison - Ammatar Thunder Thundering Herd 329	Posted - 2012.02.18 18:19:00 - [15] - Quote loyalslave Askold wrote: Infinitio Krystallos wrote: Wyke Mossari wrote: This plus the free fuel blocks. Say WHAT exactly ????????? the christmas presents, there was the remap, the fuel blocks (blocks or bpos) or other things ( iirc ammo, a destoyer [??] , AUR ....). doubtful that they still have a impact though These things have absolutely NOT a thing to do with current Market. Move along............. OMG He Spent His Free-áAURUM ! God is simply-áthe very extraordinary power of the Universe to organize Itself as percieved. -á-á- Lee Smolin "Three Roads to Quantum Gravity"
Vaerah Vahrokha Vahrokh Consulting 279	Posted - 2012.02.18 18:40:00 - [16] - Quote Zevas wrote: Talk about over complicating things. The biggest factor has to be fuel blocks. The change in quantities means the amount of robotics required to fuel a tower has been reduced. Lower demand = lower value. Prices are starting to settle basically. It's not complicated at all. The explanation was the 2 liner I posted at first and it does not even need to know about fuel blocks at all and it's applicable to every market. The second explanation was about the guy who asked about this question: Gillium Rooke wrote: Out of interest, what causes the yearly high price cycle? Increased activity over the summer then winter hols? Signup drives increasing player base? Auditing \| Collateral holding and insurance \| Consulting \| PLEX for Good Charity Twitter channel
Adunh Slavy Ammatar Trade Syndicate 315	Posted - 2012.02.18 21:01:00 - [17] - Quote Gillium Rooke wrote: Out of interest, what causes the yearly high price cycle? Increased activity over the summer then winter hols? Signup drives increasing player base? When it is cold out, people tend to stay indoors and do indoor activities, like computer games. This increases activity in Eve.
Scrapyard Bob EVE University Ivy League 698	Posted - 2012.02.19 13:49:00 - [18] - Quote 1) The fuel block changeover. Originally, it was supposed to happen within 2 weeks of Crucible's launch. This cause a lot of panic buying by POS owners who needed to manufacturing fuel blocks quickly. Speculators also got in on the action and drove the prices up sharply across a lot of fuel components. When CCP delayed the switch until Jan 24th, a lot of the demand pressure evaporated. 2) POCOs were originally supposed to be a required element of Low/Null/W space PI. CCP's original plan (back in early November) was that they were going to wipe out all existing Low/Null/W space customs offices on day 1, requiring players to quickly construct POCOs to replace. This would have had a huge shock to supply, plus a very large and very urgent demand for any and all products used in POCO construction. Naturally, fear and speculation took effect and people stocked up massive quantities. Again, CCP changed the rollout schedule, letting existing NPC COs stay in place until destroyed. So all of that expected demand pressure never materialized. 3) Prices always rise around an expansion as speculators and market movers attempt to profit from uncertainty / changes. Prices always fall between major expansions. -- So what we're seeing right now is an over-supply of the market because of all the panic buying and speculation during Nov/Dec. Plus we're getting into that normal period of low-demand in the middle of the 6-month expansion cycle. Last year, prices fell to about 40-43k ISK/u for Robotics. But with the new P3 export tariffs, I expect them to stop at around 45-48k ISK/u. In the meantime, I'm stocking up - because they (based on last October) should have resulted in 80k ISK/u Robotics due to the tariff changes. People will eventually stop making them at a loss, which will dry up supply and start another market cycle.
Krixtal Icefluxor Bison - Ammatar Thunder Thundering Herd 329	Posted - 2012.02.19 14:24:00 - [19] - Quote Scrapyard Bob wrote: 1) The fuel block changeover. Originally, it was supposed to happen within 2 weeks of Crucible's launch. This cause a lot of panic buying by POS owners who needed to manufacturing fuel blocks quickly. Speculators also got in on the action and drove the prices up sharply across a lot of fuel components. When CCP delayed the switch until Jan 24th, a lot of the demand pressure evaporated. 2) POCOs were originally supposed to be a required element of Low/Null/W space PI. CCP's original plan (back in early November) was that they were going to wipe out all existing Low/Null/W space customs offices on day 1, requiring players to quickly construct POCOs to replace. This would have had a huge shock to supply, plus a very large and very urgent demand for any and all products used in POCO construction. Naturally, fear and speculation took effect and people stocked up massive quantities. Again, CCP changed the rollout schedule, letting existing NPC COs stay in place until destroyed. So all of that expected demand pressure never materialized. 3) Prices always rise around an expansion as speculators and market movers attempt to profit from uncertainty / changes. Prices always fall between major expansions. -- So what we're seeing right now is an over-supply of the market because of all the panic buying and speculation during Nov/Dec. Plus we're getting into that normal period of low-demand in the middle of the 6-month expansion cycle. Last year, prices fell to about 40-43k ISK/u for Robotics. But with the new P3 export tariffs, I expect them to stop at around 45-48k ISK/u. In the meantime, I'm stocking up - because they (based on last October) should have resulted in 80k ISK/u Robotics due to the tariff changes. People will eventually stop making them at a loss, which will dry up supply and start another market cycle. Best analysis so far. But again, when that Liquid O bottleneck hits.......................... OMG He Spent His Free-áAURUM ! God is simply-áthe very extraordinary power of the Universe to organize Itself as percieved. -á-á- Lee Smolin "Three Roads to Quantum Gravity"
Vaerah Vahrokha Vahrokh Consulting 289	Posted - 2012.02.19 16:50:00 - [20] - Quote Krixtal Icefluxor wrote: Best analysis so far. But again, when that Liquid O bottleneck hits.......................... Indeed. But here's the catch, in order to do this kind of analysis you must play the game, follow that market, have an idea of the background, of the past and present patches. Of course that will yield the super-maximum profit but you have to be an Akita T / Scrapyard Bob / AnakieNine guy, spending enough time at acquiring all that information. Also if you quit the game for a couple of months you'll have lost a lot of important information. Or you can learn to read price and cover whatever market, always, with no prior information at all. Auditing \| Collateral holding and insurance \| Consulting \| PLEX for Good Charity Twitter channel
Slavemaster ICC - Information Control Corporation 14	Posted - 2012.02.21 11:42:00 - [21] - Quote ........ I belied its duped in some way. It might be bc i am paranoid and lost 2 bil on a speculation. No matter there is no logic to the price of Robotics.
Vaerah Vahrokha Vahrokh Consulting 302	Posted - 2012.02.21 16:40:00 - [22] - Quote Slavemaster wrote: ........ I belied its duped in some way. It might be bc i am paranoid and lost 2 bil on a speculation. No matter there is no logic to the price of Robotics. The logic does not matter. The first week of December shown a large pin bar (PB) that should have warned any stock holder that many were taking profit. I mean, it's a whole week worth of people selling twice as much than what was bought. Plus it closes below a BRN (big round number) which means buyers lost strength. You then had the 2nd week of december warning you about the supply and demand change: Robotics At the 3rd week, the 2 week pin bar is an huge DUMP NAO !signal that would not make anyone lose more than 4.5k a piece. The 4th week, the IPB closing below the 2 W PB means that sellers are winning, it could only go worse if it closed below the 1st Dec week tail (buyers minimum accepted liquidity level). The next week, the "could only go worse" happened. The thick bearish bar closes below the 1st December PB => sellers have eradicated all the remaining buyers. Anyone still holding stock that day have exclusively themselves to blame. Edit: No excuse about only me having access to decent analysis tools: everyone in EvE can type "Robotics" in EvEMarketeer.com and click "Trends". He would see the same things, I even put an arrow next to the PB. Edit 2: No excuse about not knowing what to do either, it's all freely explained with pictures by me on this forum: Experiment #01: RL finance analysis applied to EvE and even in a RL trading forum. Remember, trading is a PvP game based on asymmetry of information. If you don't upgrade your tools to Tech 3, the other traders will stomp you. Auditing \| Collateral holding and insurance \| Consulting \| PLEX for Good Charity Twitter channel
Slavemaster ICC - Information Control Corporation 14	Posted - 2012.02.21 17:06:00 - [23] - Quote I get what you are saying, but here is the problem.. If I get this right we are at at stage where high sec PI for Robotics has 0, isk in value more or less, or close to nothing. There are not that many out there who will go on producing it when there are better options. And I dont believe for a sec, that there is a bonaza of PI producers in low sec with that pity amount of isk they get for it. The only reason its falling is that someone has found a way of duping it. is not many mounts ago that Megacyte was duped, there is a thread about it. I can understand that is a question of supply, and demand, but Robotics have nothing to do with that if you look at the marked history you can "easy" see that something is very wrong, and my bet Is Duping
Acac Sunflyier Burning Star L.L.C. 76	Posted - 2012.02.21 18:11:00 - [24] - Quote Gillium Rooke wrote: Does anyone know why the price of robotics has dropped over 10k in the last week? I'm assuming either one or more of the following, but it would be nice to know for sure: 1) a few big corps/players have dropped a glut onto the market. 2) with the increased player base there's more people doing PI. 3) alliances have started producing more for themselves thus killing the demand. 4) there's been a change in rules that I am blissfully unaware of. Thanks What happened was fuel blocks came out. They were a new fuel introduced that required robotics to make. So, pos owners gobbeled up a crap ton to make a good stockpile to augment the on hand and outdated pos fuels they had. Now, since pos owners have a good stockpile, the demand has returned to their previous levels.
Kiss me quickly Federal Navy Academy Gallente Federation 1	Posted - 2012.02.21 18:17:00 - [25] - Quote VV hindsight best hindsight.
Esan Vartesa Samarkand Financial 167	Posted - 2012.02.21 18:28:00 - [26] - Quote Kiss me quickly wrote: VV hindsight best hindsight. That's the magic of technical analysis. There are enough formulas in the TA's toolbox that there's always one or two to match every historical graph. I'm not knocking TA entirely, just pointing out that it's often abused.
Slavemaster ICC - Information Control Corporation 14	Posted - 2012.02.21 18:29:00 - [27] - Quote Acac Sunflyier wrote: Gillium Rooke wrote: Does anyone know why the price of robotics has dropped over 10k in the last week? I'm assuming either one or more of the following, but it would be nice to know for sure: 1) a few big corps/players have dropped a glut onto the market. 2) with the increased player base there's more people doing PI. 3) alliances have started producing more for themselves thus killing the demand. 4) there's been a change in rules that I am blissfully unaware of. Thanks What happened was fuel blocks came out. They were a new fuel introduced that required robotics to make. So, pos owners gobbeled up a crap ton to make a good stockpile to augment the on hand and outdated pos fuels they had. Now, since pos owners have a good stockpile, the demand has returned to their previous levels. The production time of making fuel blocks is long. Why does that matter? The reason is that now days of PI production is lost in a limbo land while its being prudence. In other words 3-4 days of PI production is lost in EVE. Another ting that is lost is the waste factor of PI stuff laying around since you now cant use it directly. With all this reason there should have been a Spike in prices, but clearly not.
mechtech Ice Liberation Army 134	Posted - 2012.02.21 21:22:00 - [28] - Quote Slavemaster wrote: There should have been a Spike in prices, but clearly not. Welcome to investing. The issue with your understanding is that you're underestimating stockpiles. 3-4 days volume is absolutely nothing compared to what people have stacked away in hangers. The only way to 100% predict prices is to predict when people will sell and when people will buy. In my opinion, lots of PI was bought up for fuel blocks, and now that demand gap has been filled. Also, many people will stop producing fuel blocks for various reasons (no profit, too lazy, etc), and some of the robotics that was bought up will now find its way back on the market and depress it slightly.
Slavemaster ICC - Information Control Corporation 14	Posted - 2012.02.21 21:57:00 - [29] - Quote mechtech wrote: Slavemaster wrote: There should have been a Spike in prices, but clearly not. Welcome to investing. The issue with your understanding is that you're underestimating stockpiles. 3-4 days volume is absolutely nothing compared to what people have stacked away in hangers. The only way to 100% predict prices is to predict when people will sell and when people will buy. In my opinion, lots of PI was bought up for fuel blocks, and now that demand gap has been filled. Also, many people will stop producing fuel blocks for various reasons (no profit, too lazy, etc), and some of the robotics that was bought up will now find its way back on the market and depress it slightly. The hole story of people,corp stacking in hanger etc is a absolution based on thin air, and rumors with no facts to support it. There are around 19k Pos and 4 days lost is 30 ( small/medium + large) per h. 19k x 30 x 24 = 13.6 mil blocks. 342k Robotics Lost. + Waste Again: Today you get close to 0,- isk for making Robotics in high sec. And to low for but the few to make them in low. To repeat my self. Yes, I believe robotics is duped. When they duped Mega ( CCP confirmed) I dont se why then cant do it with Robotics.
mechtech Ice Liberation Army 134	Posted - 2012.02.22 02:29:00 - [30] - Quote Slavemaster wrote: The hole story of people,corp stacking in hanger etc is a absolution based on thin air, and rumors with no facts to support it. This is where your argument ends. Stockpiles are very real, and the fact that you think that 3 days of Jita market volume has any long term significance shows a lack of understanding, especially considering Robotics has had traders popping in and out of the market constantly. Hell, with the waffles I play with I can cover Jita volume for about 6 months. I'm just 1 player out of hundreds of thousands, and every trader probably has a giant stockpile of their current "item of choice". Of course what I'm saying has just as much evidence as your duping accusations (zero), but if you've ever tried to manipulate a market yourself you can feel the stockpiles first hand. If you just buy up all of the items on the market, enough stock gets instantly dumped to bring the price even lower than it was originally. You can then buy up the entire market again, and within a few minutes giant stacks of random item X from god knows where will once again start popping up. I bet most of the traders reading this thread have a stack of something, be it from lazyness or used as an investment. Also, I hate to tell you, but there are tons of people who produce items for themselves and for sale even though the value of the end product is lower than the sum of the component prices. It's sad but oh so true.
Scrapyard Bob EVE University Ivy League 705	Posted - 2012.02.22 04:26:00 - [31] - Quote Acac Sunflyier wrote: What happened was fuel blocks came out. They were a new fuel introduced that required robotics to make. So, pos owners gobbeled up a crap ton to make a good stockpile to augment the on hand and outdated pos fuels they had. Now, since pos owners have a good stockpile, the demand has returned to their previous levels. The only weird thing is that, unless all the robotics and sub-components were being produced in null/low/w POCO planets with next to zero tariffs - prices should have gone up roughly equivalent to the hi-sec tariff on P3 (7000 ISK/u). And if you count in at least 1 prior level of tariffs, probably more like 10-12k ISK/u increase. OTOH, last summer they were down in the 42-43k ISK/u range, and the current bottom seems to be right around 50k ISK/u (maybe 52-54k long-term). This pattern shows up in the (4) P1 sub-components as well which are still 50-100 ISK above last year's slump price. So maybe the market is somewhat rational regarding the tariff increase. I really expected the 60-65k Robotics to stick and for it to go up by 7-10k ISK/u (so 70-75k long-term, if not 80-85k).
Slavemaster ICC - Information Control Corporation 14	Posted - 2012.02.22 06:58:00 - [32] - Quote mechtech wrote: Slavemaster wrote: The hole story of people,corp stacking in hanger etc is a absolution based on thin air, and rumors with no facts to support it. This is where your argument ends. Stockpiles are very real, and the fact that you think that 3 days of Jita market volume has any long term significance shows a lack of understanding, especially considering Robotics has had traders popping in and out of the market constantly. Hell, with the waffles I play with I can cover Jita volume for about 6 months. I'm just 1 player out of hundreds of thousands, and every trader probably has a giant stockpile of their current "item of choice". Of course what I'm saying has just as much evidence as your duping accusations (zero), but if you've ever tried to manipulate a market yourself you can feel the stockpiles first hand. If you just buy up all of the items on the market, enough stock gets instantly dumped to bring the price even lower than it was originally. You can then buy up the entire market again, and within a few minutes giant stacks of random item X from god knows where will once again start popping up. I bet most of the traders reading this thread have a stack of something, be it from lazyness or used as an investment. Also, I hate to tell you, but there are tons of people who produce items for themselves and for sale even though the value of the end product is lower than the sum of the component prices. It's sad but oh so true. "This is where your argument ends. Stockpiles are very real, and the fact that you think that 3 days of Jita market volume has any long term significance shows a lack of understanding, especially considering Robotics has had traders popping in and out of the market constantly." - There will be no more Robotics in the marked with re selleres. I sell 10, you buy 10 will not make 30 Robotics. "Of course what I'm saying has just as much evidence as your duping accusations (zero), but if you've ever tried to manipulate a market yourself you can feel the stockpiles first hand. If you just buy up all of the items on the market, enough stock gets instantly dumped to bring the price even lower than it was originally. You can then buy up the entire market again, and within a few minutes giant stacks of random item X from god knows where will once again start popping up. I bet most of the traders reading this thread have a stack of something, be it from lazyness or used as an investment." Wall of text with no logic. Might look convincing for a few, but then they might be into. PI. This clearly shows that you have a lack of basic understanding day trading. If you day trade in robotics that has had fall from 80- 42 (50) you will lose isk no matter, it has gone down to fast.. If you are really good can earn is when a product is going down in price. The Problem, is that the fall was to fast. - IF you are a - 100 mil trader at Jita, your way, or how you do it might get you isk. A small fish can sell, and buy fast and make isk even on robotics. If we are at that level of Trade talk, that we talk about a few millions per day, then... I suggest you stop here -----> X I do play the marked, and did lose 2bil on robotics (1 mouth ish ago, in for 4 days , took my losses. And moved on. You have arguments that sounds convincing, and is build around an illusion of logic., i bet many here will take your words over mine. But, what you call facts is bases to rumors with no base to it.. I don't matter how many time you say "I heard this" "Many are... " I believe this all this "facts" are irrational arguments. The conclusion is that many are idiots that do stuff for 0,- isk, or even have to pay to click on that boring PI planet, might be true for a week or 2, but even a Idiot gives up after months. The " traders" one you talk about here are the one that puts all the isk on lottery tickets. So..... "I Believe, I have heard of dupes" to put them in to words that your logical , analytically mind can comprehend. That Pi stuff is duped. The Numbers don't add up.
Vaerah Vahrokha Vahrokh Consulting 332	Posted - 2012.02.28 21:34:00 - [33] - Quote Kiss me quickly wrote: VV hindsight best hindsight. Esan Vartesa wrote: That's the magic of technical analysis. There are enough formulas in the TA's toolbox that there's always one or two to match every historical graph. I'm not knocking TA entirely, just pointing out that it's often abused. Let's do a little game This week Robotics graph is this. Everyone can retrieve it at this link by selecting "Trends" and then "Week". If and only if price will exactly match one of the 4 scenarios I link later in this post: - if the next closed candle(s) will NOT respect the buy / sell signals I have put in the pictures to the swing above (buy) or below (sell) then I will send Kiss me quickly 500M. - if they do, Kiss me quickly will send me 500M. Ofc in case Kiss me quickly won't reply or not accept the deal, I won't send anything. Definitions Respect means: price at closed candle will have gone up or down (dojis are neutral and won't count). The "If PA => buy" means: price will pull back to the upper blue line (support), form one of: bullish pin bar (1 or 2 weeks) or BUOB or DBLHC. If this happens and the pattern does not close at the next swing then buy at the top of such pattern. The "If PA => sell" means: price will pull back to the lower line (resistance), form one of: bearish pin bar (1 or 2 weeks) or BEOB or DBHLC. If this happens and the pattern does not close at the next swing then sell at the bottom of such pattern. Scenarios Scenario 1: price drops to lower support, bounces back up and it's close breaks the resistance, then bounces down to the same line and creates the "If PA => buy" definition above. Scenario 2: price ranges between the two lines for a while then it's close breaks upwards then bounces down to the same line and creates the "If PA => buy" definition above. Scenario 3: price breaks and closes below the lower support, bounces back to the line as shown on the graph, then creates the "If PA => sell" definition above. Scenario 4: price ranges between the two lines for a while then it breaks and closes below the lower support, bounces back to the line as shown on the graph, then creates the "If PA => sell" definition above. Any other scenarios (there could be a lot) won't be covered and will void the deal. Auditing \| Collateral holding and insurance \| Consulting \| PLEX for Good Charity Twitter channel

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