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Level V Invention Skills worse than level IV?

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Gridwalker Amarr	Posted - 2008.02.27 16:15:00 - [1] I've noticed that since I got my Caldari Encryption Methods skill to V, I've had considerably less success on jobs than I do with my Gallente Encryption Methods at IV. I know it is anecdotal, but I swear I only get about 10% success on Caldari jobs now, but nearly 80% on Gallente jobs. Bad luck, or bugged formulas? Anyone else notice this? -Grid
Lady Natacha Minmatar Water and Power	Posted - 2008.02.27 16:50:00 - [2] Originally by: Gridwalker I've noticed that since I got my Caldari Encryption Methods skill to V, I've had considerably less success on jobs than I do with my Gallente Encryption Methods at IV. I know it is anecdotal, but I swear I only get about 10% success on Caldari jobs now, but nearly 80% on Gallente jobs. Bad luck, or bugged formulas? Anyone else notice this? -Grid A Dev stated in here in another thread that invention skills at level 5 work as intended. Without knowing the formula for invention you have to take their word on it. However, CCP also said the same thing basically about Tactical Shield Manipulation 5, and after a couple of years of us complaining they finally fixed that, but the formula for that skill was known so you could actually demonstrate it was broken. CCP plays around with invention all the time, and my bet is that they additionally adjust the success rate of their formulas on some sort of sliding scale based on the quantity of BPCs and/or built items of the type being invented that exist in-game. It would not be too hard for CCP to adjust this success modifier daily considering there is a predictable downtime when all the necessary calculations for that entire day could be made. CCP's 250M isk LP store SCAM: Link
Jameroz Art of War	Posted - 2008.02.27 17:38:00 - [3] Originally by: Lady Natacha CCP plays around with invention all the time, and my bet is that they additionally adjust the success rate of their formulas on some sort of sliding scale based on the quantity of BPCs and/or built items of the type being invented that exist in-game. It would not be too hard for CCP to adjust this success modifier daily considering there is a predictable downtime when all the necessary calculations for that entire day could be made. Want to buy this tinfoil hat to protect you from the CCP mind control? I bet the chances are fixed and won't change without a patch.
Lady Natacha Minmatar Water and Power	Posted - 2008.02.27 18:28:00 - [4] Originally by: Jameroz I bet the chances are fixed and won't change without a patch. That would imply that the formula for invention is stored in the client which I really, really doubt. CCP can and does patch (hotfix) the server constantly, and they also have the option to do this daily. CCP's 250M isk LP store SCAM: Link
Qual Gallente Cornexant Research	Posted - 2008.02.27 19:57:00 - [5] Originally by: Lady Natacha CCP plays around with invention all the time, and my bet is that they additionally adjust the success rate of their formulas on some sort of sliding scale based on the quantity of BPCs and/or built items of the type being invented that exist in-game. It would not be too hard for CCP to adjust this success modifier daily considering there is a predictable downtime when all the necessary calculations for that entire day could be made. Huh? No they DONT play around with it. Invention has had TWO changes, the first when decryptor run bonus was changed from a mutiplier to an addition and secondly with the Trinity release. That change affected base chances and decryptor bonuses, not the formula. CCP has stated CLEARLY that they WONT change the formula without giving player due notice, and based on my not insignificant statistical material, this has hold true for the full time. "The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf
Ky Vatta Caldari Majority 12	Posted - 2008.02.27 20:14:00 - [6] If you ask me, I think the decryptors are not working properly (since the last big patch) --- Self-confessed Carebear, and proud of it
Lady Natacha Minmatar Water and Power	Posted - 2008.02.27 20:56:00 - [7] Originally by: Qual Invention has had TWO changes, the first when decryptor run bonus was changed from a mutiplier to an addition and secondly with the Trinity release. That change affected base chances and decryptor bonuses, not the formula. The formula itself remains unchanged, yes, but what makes up the formula (and the results of such) as you pointed out has been changed. What I am saying is I suspect that a part of the existing formula (a variable just like decryptors or skills) is tied to what items presently exist in game. Increasing the decryptor bonuses did not change the formula, but it did change the success results. This "market" variable could be calculated automatically every downtime for each inventable item by examining how many BPCs and how many built items exist in game. If there were tons of the same BPC and item in game you are trying to invent when you try, you have a lesser chance of success than when the opposite condition exists. This concept gives the invention formula the ability to dynamically react to the existing market, and might explain some of the "unlucky streaks" some here seem to have (myself excluded, invention is working great for me...so far). I may be way off, but CCP did hire a PHD in economics, this idea fits in with one of the reasons why, keeping the markets from crashing. Until we get to see the actual formula, ANYONE'S guess could be correct. CCP's 250M isk LP store SCAM: Link
Daerkannon Shimmerscale Gallente Paxton Industries Paxton Federation	Posted - 2008.02.28 15:24:00 - [8] Originally by: Lady Natacha I may be way off, but CCP did hire a PHD in economics, this idea fits in with one of the reasons why, keeping the markets from crashing. Good grief. Is this Eve's version of Onyxia deep breathing more? First up, to the OP... as was mentioned a Dev looked into the level V invention skills and stated that they are working correctly. I, for one, don't need any more tin foil in my life so I choose to believe them. Second up, this ludicrous idea that invention is somehow tied to existing supply. I don't know where this started or why it keeps coming up, but it defies logic. The sheer complexity of coding something like this pretty much ensures that it will not work right out of the gate. On top of that, just how is it totaling this variable? Does it run a query every time you install an invention job against every single module and BPC of that type? And people say that fleet battles cause lag. Finally, there is the point that CCP has shown absolutely zero interest in regulating other markets from manipulation, crashes and other market events. Why in the world would they meddle with this? They hired an economist to make sense of the complex economy, not to try and regulate it. If there is anything to complain or wonder about it, it might be the streakiness of the random number generator. I believe Akita T has a post about that somewhere around here. Go jump on that bandwagon... at least it has some credibility. --- Honest officer, the dwarf was on fire when I got here! Can't find a mechanical engineering agent? Need a non-Caldari Navy agent? http://www.eve-agents.com/ for all your agent needs!
Lady Natacha Minmatar Water and Power	Posted - 2008.02.28 18:01:00 - [9] Edited by: Lady Natacha on 28/02/2008 18:06:12 Originally by: Daerkannon Shimmerscale Second up, this ludicrous idea that invention is somehow tied to existing supply. I don't know where this started or why it keeps coming up, but it defies logic. The sheer complexity of coding something like this pretty much ensures that it will not work right out of the gate. It's not that complex, the modifier could just be one of the (many) unknown variables that makeup the equation. Originally by: Daerkannon Shimmerscale On top of that, just how is it totaling this variable? Does it run a query every time you install an invention job against every single module and BPC of that type? And people say that fleet battles cause lag. That's exactly why it would be done once per day, at downtime. This is when the value of the modifier would be created, so in essence the modifier variable for today would be based on what existed in the DB at today's downtime. Originally by: Daerkannon Shimmerscale Finally, there is the point that CCP has shown absolutely zero interest in regulating other markets from manipulation, crashes and other market events. Why in the world would they meddle with this? They hired an economist to make sense of the complex economy, not to try and regulate it. That does not mean they don't want or need to regulate the "markets" to some degree, especially the potentially lucrative chance based ones. Shuttles are sold by NPCs to regulate the price of tritanium if you need a simple example of CCP regulating the tritanium market. CCP recently changed the m3 volume of modules to regulate the flow of materials from empire to null sec if you need another example of how disinterested they are in "market" manipulation. As far as having an economist on the payroll goes, what exactly do you think CCP is doing with the results of his work/analysis if not to better fine-tune certain economic aspects of the game? Originally by: Daerkannon Shimmerscale If there is anything to complain or wonder about it, it might be the streakiness of the random number generator. I believe Akita T has a post about that somewhere around here. Go jump on that bandwagon... at least it has some credibility. No complaints here, invention works great for me the way I have approached it since inception. I am (personally) not on any "bandwagon" here, the crux of what I am suggesting regardless of the validity of my suspicions is that if people here think that skills and decryptors are the only things that modify the success chance of an invention job (outside of the RNG of course), they are not considering everything CCP has to do/adjust to keep invention balanced. I have actually read Akita T's post previously and do believe it has some merit. If you've ever received a "worlds collide" mission 6x in a row from the same agent it makes you even more suspicious. RNG's are mostly crap anyway, maybe CCP needs to hire a PHD for that too CCP's 250M isk LP store SCAM: Link
Daerkannon Shimmerscale Gallente Paxton Industries Paxton Federation	Posted - 2008.02.28 18:18:00 - [10] Originally by: Lady Natacha It's not that complex, the modifier could just be one of the (many) unknown variables that makeup the equation. The equation itself remains simple, but the system behind getting that modifier is ridiculously complex for what it would be trying to do. I know if I was in that design meeting I would be arguing very strongly for the system that used one relatively simply, chance based equation. Originally by: Lady Natacha That's exactly why it would be done once per day, at downtime. This is when the value of the modifier would be created, so in essence the modifier variable for today would be based on what existed in the DB at previous downtime. I agree that if this were being done, this is likely how it would be done, but I still think that's adding a lot of unnecessary work and complication for minimal effect. I also believe that if this were being done we'd see a lot of probability crashes on the very popular to invent modules (cap rechargers, cargohold expanders, etc.) and I haven't seen any evidence of that. Results are very consistent across all kinds of modules as to success rates. Originally by: Lady Natacha That does not mean they don't want or need to regulate the "markets" to some degree, especially the potentially lucrative chance based ones. Shuttles are sold by NPCs to regulate the price of tritanium if you need a simple example of CCP regulating the tritanium market. CCP recently changed the m3 volume of modules to regulate the flow of materials from empire to null sec if you need another example of how disinterested they are in "market" manipulation. As far as having an economist on the payroll goes, what exactly do you think CCP is doing with the results of his work/analysis if not to better fine-tune certain economic aspects of the game? Actually shuttles are sold by NPCs because way way back there were only 5-10k people online and entire regions were without products. You couldn't hop out of your ship into a pod in the station either, so you needed a new ship to get into or you were stuck there. Since the original target price of Trit was 1 ISK/unit I don't think they ever envisioned trit rising to the point where shuttle reprocessing was viable. The volume change on items was a direct shot at 0.0 alliances compressing large amount of minerals into much smaller, easier to move items. CCP wanted those freighters full of Trit out in 0.0 and not a blockade runner full of explosive hardeners. It had secondary repercussions on the market, but that was not the primary purpose. As for the economist, I believe they want him around not to play with the market so much as avoid unintended consequences. Most of the time CCP has a very hands off policy on the marketplace. Even scamming is a legitimate option as long as you're not abusing game mechanics to do it. The only thing they are worried about is the long term health of the economy from inflation/deflation via ISK faucets and ISK sinks. Invention is neither a sink or a faucet and CCP has been moving more and more to models where a profession makes its income from fellow pilots and not from NPCs. --- Honest officer, the dwarf was on fire when I got here! Can't find a mechanical engineering agent? Need a non-Caldari Navy agent? http://www.eve-agents.com/ for all your agent needs!
Admiral Nova Strike Team Nova	Posted - 2008.02.28 23:56:00 - [11] Originally by: Lady Natacha That's exactly why it would be done once per day, at downtime. This is when the value of the modifier would be created, so in essence the modifier variable for today would be based on what existed in the DB at today's downtime. The same logic that would create this would change the contents of astroids based upon the current mineral prices. CCP don't need to play with the chances, based upon the market prices PLAYERS will either do more or less invention of an item. This game has always been about making as much stuff as possible player driven.
Chance Lightfoot	Posted - 2008.02.29 00:29:00 - [12] I stopped using my 5/5/5 toon for invention because apparently its not broken. I'm now quite happily inventing away with my 4/4/4 toon which wipes the floor on success rates compared to the 5/5/5. My information comes from results not words written by a nameless face in some forum.
Admiral Nova Strike Team Nova	Posted - 2008.02.29 04:02:00 - [13] Originally by: Chance Lightfoot My information comes from results not words written by a nameless face in some forum. If CCP Chronotis is a nameless face...
You What The Grill UK	Posted - 2008.02.29 04:26:00 - [14] I also have less success jobs on 5/5/5 minmatar invention than i have on 4/4/4 caldari one. Noticed it ages ago and since then i've done 500+ invention jobs and still sticking to 5/5/5 being broken.
Fofalus III ELEMENTS	Posted - 2008.02.29 06:11:00 - [15] Originally by: Daerkannon Shimmerscale Originally by: Lady Natacha I may be way off, but CCP did hire a PHD in economics, this idea fits in with one of the reasons why, keeping the markets from crashing. Good grief. Is this Eve's version of Onyxia deep breathing more? First up, to the OP... as was mentioned a Dev looked into the level V invention skills and stated that they are working correctly. I, for one, don't need any more tin foil in my life so I choose to believe them. Have you read the skills forum in the past 2 years. Devs directly said tactical shield manipulation 5 was working correctly and players continuously demonstrated it wasn't. Either in Rev or Rev 2 it got fixed to work correctly. That basically takes any weight ccp has and tosses it in a pit.
voidvim Minmatar Genco Interstellar Alcohol Conglomerate	Posted - 2008.02.29 11:32:00 - [16] also their the invention implants, if ccp will not / can't fix. It helps with the tin hattering would you throw in my facts . Salvaging guide:moon materials guide
Rashmika Clavain Gallente Red. Red Republic	Posted - 2008.02.29 12:14:00 - [17] WTB: T1 Tin Foil Hat BPO so I can try and invent some T2 Tin Foil hat BPC's!
Daerkannon Shimmerscale Gallente Paxton Industries Paxton Federation	Posted - 2008.02.29 15:19:00 - [18] Originally by: Fofalus Have you read the skills forum in the past 2 years. Devs directly said tactical shield manipulation 5 was working correctly and players continuously demonstrated it wasn't. Either in Rev or Rev 2 it got fixed to work correctly. That basically takes any weight ccp has and tosses it in a pit. I'm quite aware of the Tactical Shield Manipulation skill bug/fix. The difference was that some people took it on themselves to grind out the numbers to prove that it was broken. All I've heard on the 5/5/5 issue is anecdotal evidence. If one of these people that have "done hundreds of invention jobs" care to put up their numbers so we can run actual statistical analysis on them then I might start lending some credence to the claims. Until then it's just Onyxia deep breathing more after a patch. --- Honest officer, the dwarf was on fire when I got here! Can't find a mechanical engineering agent? Need a non-Caldari Navy agent? http://www.eve-agents.com/ for all your agent needs!
Qual Gallente Cornexant Research	Posted - 2008.02.29 19:10:00 - [19] I have had all skills at lvl 5 from the start of invention, and at no point have I seen any evidence in the thousands of jobs I have done that I had a worse succesrate than the published lvl 4 succes rates. Actually my succesrates have allways been better than what I have seen lvl 4 players publish. I put this 100% in the urban legend category. "The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf
Tunak	Posted - 2008.02.29 19:41:00 - [20] Originally by: Lady Natacha What I am saying is I suspect that a part of the existing formula (a variable just like decryptors or skills) is tied to what items presently exist in game. Increasing the decryptor bonuses did not change the formula, but it did change the success results. This "market" variable could be calculated automatically every downtime for each inventable item by examining how many BPCs and how many built items exist in game. If there were tons of the same BPC and item in game you are trying to invent when you try, you have a lesser chance of success than when the opposite condition exists. This concept gives the invention formula the ability to dynamically react to the existing market, and might explain some of the "unlucky streaks" some here seem to have (myself excluded, invention is working great for me...so far). I may be way off, but CCP did hire a PHD in economics, this idea fits in with one of the reasons why, keeping the markets from crashing. Until we get to see the actual formula, ANYONE'S guess could be correct. You are wrong. First off what you suggest is a creep toward 0. The amount of unused items sitting around in hangers grows on a daily basis. Every time an account closes that has an invention item on it you're one permanent step closer to zero success. There's no way to remove that item and increase the success rate. Any solution to this problem exponentially increases the processing time of the query. I'd also guess that the data is not indexed on item type as this is never needed. The player id is stored on the hanger which id is stored on the item. So the query you describe would consume time based directly on the number of items in the world. A number that grows every second. There's simply not time to compute what you claim. Especially for an end result that is identical to rolling dice. Second. Streaks are normal. Specifically the streaks in EvE are normal. Akita T was just babbling about this and collected a bunch of data that a bunch of math geeks looked at and said, "Everything looks normal." Third. Please post some evidence. This "theory" is simply an old wives tale people tell to take the sting out of failed jobs. Fourth. CCP has said that V is working correctly. If you think CCP is either lying to your face or incompetent to the point of being unable to give you a correct answer then why are you giving them money?
Lady Natacha Minmatar Water and Power	Posted - 2008.02.29 20:41:00 - [21] Originally by: Tunak I think You are wrong. (fixed that for you) Originally by: Tunak stuff Post with your main and I might jump in there, otherwise, your rabble does not sway any suspicions I may have one way or another. Look at the second to last paragraph in my last post above more carefully and you might see where I concede. If English is not your first language, I apologize in advance. Originally by: Tunak Fourth. CCP has said that V is working correctly. If you think CCP is either lying to your face or incompetent to the point of being unable to give you a correct answer then why are you giving them money? Ummm, I never said anything like that at all. I said that CCP had stated everything was working as expected in my very first post. I also said you had to believe them because we have no way to prove otherwise without knowing what the formula is. Troll much? CCP's 250M isk LP store SCAM: Link
Aldelphius Carbide Industries	Posted - 2008.02.29 20:54:00 - [22] I have my own evidince that invention is broken. With 2/5/1 I was having 72% success up till the 23 of feb. I then took 5 days off thinking I would do better with higher skills. But I happened to burn off all the BPC I invented, so I decided it was worth it to make some more. With my skills at 3/5/3 in sitting with a 25% success. I have never had this low of success ever. If I dont get a string of success soon Im going to be forced to believe that they changed something.
Tunak	Posted - 2008.02.29 21:10:00 - [23] Originally by: Lady Natacha Post with your main and I might jump in there, otherwise, your rabble does not sway any suspicions I may have one way or another. Look at the second to last paragraph in my last post above more carefully and you might see where I concede. If English is not your first language, I apologize in advance. Ahh the alt claim. I post points. You have no response so you attack the poster. Why do I bother responding to newbs like you.
Gridwalker Amarr	Posted - 2008.02.29 23:57:00 - [24] I just want to point out, as the OP, that all I was looking for was someone to state "No, we ran the numbers, and you're just facing a string of bad luck." or "Oh yeah, we ran the numbers, and the worst thing you can do is invest in level V invention skills!" I'm convinced enough that level V is broken that, until I've gathered more information, I am not training any more invention skills beyond level IV. I just ran another batch of invention jobs with my 5/5/5 skills and every single one failed. Yet the batches I just ran with my lower level IV skills has had a success rate of up to 80%. And the reason I brought this up was because once my Caldari Encryption Methods skill hit level V, my ability to invent Caldari jobs literally fell through the floor. It was sudden, dramatic and completely unmistakable. It is bad enough that I am considering opening an account on the test server and running several hundred at level V and level IV and getting some hard numbers. -Grid
Zubb Ionesco Audentia et Artis	Posted - 2008.03.01 03:35:00 - [25] Invention: different kind of cap-related Modules, all needing 2 Quantum and 2 High Energy DC. Skills: 4-4-4 Outcome: 253 Success from a total of 527 runs. Thats 48.00759% good ones. For a proper calculus of probability you would actually need at least a thousand runs, but i think the fact that the rate of success strongly approaches 48% is no accident. You should give us some numbers about your invention runs and also some information what kind of blueprints are being invented (modules? ships?). No need to discuss about the topic wihtout knowing any numbers. Numbers mean proof. Zubb [AETA] ----------------- Never knock on Death's door. Ring the bell and run! Death hates that.
Elisa Day Koshaku Brutally Clever Empire	Posted - 2008.03.01 11:39:00 - [26] I have almost 4000 invention job runs since the patch that changed the decryptors, spread 50/50 between 4/4/4 characters and 5/5/5 characters. The difference in success is 2% in favor of the high-skilled ones. It's not broken.
Javus Talrath	Posted - 2008.03.01 18:10:00 - [27] To all these people getting success rates 72% and the like, I'm not entirely sure how much l4 meta mods affect it, but it's likely that you are just being extremely lucky, for a small number of jobs. The base success is 40% (for modules, 20-30% for ships), you're not going to get anywhere near 72% in the long run, with all l4 or all l5 skills. Some people are doing experiments where they say get 1/10 one day and 6/10 another, and saying on that basis you are more successful on Tuesdays. It's nuts and you need to do alot more to figure out what's right and not. I'm pretty sure Elissa is on the right track.
Zubb Ionesco Audentia et Artis	Posted - 2008.03.02 11:05:00 - [28] oh, what i forgot to say: I used no decryptors or anything, just plain DC + BPC Invention all the time. So a 5-5-5 char has only a 2% higher chance than a 4-4-4? Thats no adequate reward for so many weeks of skilltime i think ----------------- Never knock on Death's door. Ring the bell and run! Death hates that.
Elisa Day Koshaku Brutally Clever Empire	Posted - 2008.03.03 01:59:00 - [29] Originally by: Zubb Ionesco oh, what i forgot to say: I used no decryptors or anything, just plain DC + BPC Invention all the time. So a 5-5-5 char has only a 2% higher chance than a 4-4-4? Thats no adequate reward for so many weeks of skilltime i think For me that means about 4b extra profit per month from those 2% extra, so I guess it's up to everyone to make that choice. This is with "worst chance" decryptor as well, so presumably the gap gets bigger with the other ones.

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