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Fitz VonHeise
The New Order.
United Connection's
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Posted - 2008.03.14 18:47:00 -
[1]
People who are making Fermionic Condensates (FC) are currently making it at a loss.
That is my premises. Here are my facts. (Numbers are based on buying 20,000 units of simple reactions making 40,000 units of FC)
Current costs for 20,000 units:
Dysporite ..................... 770m (38,500 per unit)
Prometium ................... 490m (24,500 per unit)
Fluxed Condensates ........ 80m (4,000 per unit)
Caesarium Cadmide ....... 60m (3,000 per unit)
Fermionic Condensates 1,480b (37,000 per unit)
Cost .......................... 1,400b
Profit ............................. 80m (before paying for costs to run your POS)
I did this because I was making FC and made quite a bit of isk from doing so. But that was before the dramatic rise in price for both Dysporite and Prometium. And the fact that I bought some 120,000 units each of Fluxed Condensates and Caesarium Cadmide when they were half the price they are now. But IÆve run out of that excess and reran the numbers and have seen the results.
For it to be profitable to make FC the cost to sell it would need to be in the 44,000 per unit or more at current cost of simple reactants. That is IF you are buying it off the market as I do.
Now if you own a Dys or Prom moon then you can be making isk. But I submit that you could make more if you sell your product on the market as either moon minerals or as simple reactants rather then pay to have a POS up and do it.
For full disclosure I do have some 14,000 units of FC I still have to sell and they are priced at 46,000 isk.
(If my numbers are off then tell me. I always had a hard time in math class) 
After looking at this I looked at other reactants and found another one that I will be making soon.
Services I Provide:
High Sec POS Anchoring ò Alliance Creation ò The Thieves Of EvE ò My Links
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Kwint Sommer
Lothian Quay Industries
Otaku Invasion
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Posted - 2008.03.14 19:18:00 -
[2]
Why do you think I got out of the Ferrogel business? Dysprosium has gone nuts lately. Even when it is still profitable to react with it you can't seem to get it at the buy price anymore the gap between buy and sell has grown to 10k per unit or more.
Bah, at least now the value of the reaction products is low enough that I can AFK a freighter full of them to Jita rather than having to fly the same transport I use in low sec for fear of getting suicided.
If you're interested in discussing the mineral market drop me an eve-mail. I'm considering adding another 4 complex reactors this weekend and I'll hold off on that if you're planning to go into the same reactions I am. Overproduction kills the market for all of us....
Purchasing and Shipping Moon Minerals |
Shadarle
LI0NS Industries
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Posted - 2008.03.14 20:28:00 -
[3]
 Originally by: Fitz VonHeise
And the fact that I bought some 120,000 units each of Fluxed Condensates and Caesarium Cadmide when they were half the price they are now. But IÆve run out of that excess and reran the numbers and have seen the results.
You are the exact reason that these sell under cost. Or more accurately I should say people who base their prices on what they payed for components, not what the components are really worth.
You have no room to complain about this situation as you yourself were part of the reason it happened. You also shouldn't have to ask why it is happening as you are the reason as well.
So this post seems pointless... all you're doing is telling everyone you are part of that subsection of the economy who doesn't know how to value their goods. You're also obviously trying to manipulate the market to some degree with this post.
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Dal Thrax
Multiverse Corporation
Cosmic Anomalies
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Posted - 2008.03.14 20:47:00 -
[4]
And here we have a classic example of both use of FIFO (first in first out) and LIFO (Last in First Out) accounting. I'd say a better description of the situation is that many producers of these reactants hedged against price increase by buying reactant in bulk at a lower price. The current market sale price of moon minerals is driven by a drop in available supply and smaller, non-hedged, inventors entering the market. Of in short expect a couple month lag for sale price of the finished product to catch up with the increased cost of the raw materials.
Dal
Originally by: HEXXX
In all seriousness; I think I made a miscalculation originally. . . We either need to fix this or fix our advertising.
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Kwint Sommer
Lothian Quay Industries
Otaku Invasion
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Posted - 2008.03.14 20:50:00 -
[5]
Edited by: Kwint Sommer on 14/03/2008 20:58:50
Originally by: Shadarle
Originally by: Fitz VonHeise
And the fact that I bought some 120,000 units each of Fluxed Condensates and Caesarium Cadmide when they were half the price they are now. But IÆve run out of that excess and reran the numbers and have seen the results.
You are the exact reason that these sell under cost. Or more accurately I should say people who base their prices on what they payed for components, not what the components are really worth.
The lag between purchasing components and having a completed product is the reason they sell below cost. There's no futures exchange or other easy means of speculation so it takes time for the market to react. Complex reactions work the same way gas does. The price of crude might go up but it usually took days to be reflected at the pump as the gas station would sell off its old, more cheaply acquired gas at the old rate. That might even mean they were selling gas "below cost" at current production prices but that's not what they paid for it. In the absence of easy methods of speculation, the market simply takes time to react and that time is proportional to length of a standard production cycle which can be weeks long for reactions.
Originally by: Shadarle
You have no room to complain about this situation as you yourself were part of the reason it happened. You also shouldn't have to ask why it is happening as you are the reason as well.
Unless I misread his post he wasn't actually complaining, just commenting on it. 
Originally by: Shadarle
So this post seems pointless... all you're doing is telling everyone you are part of that subsection of the economy who doesn't know how to value their goods. You're also obviously trying to manipulate the market to some degree with this post.
I think we're all trying to manipulate the market a little when we discuss prices, I know I am, but I wouldn't call his post pointless. If nothing else he's given a head's up to the market PvP'ers amongst us that there's an opportunity to buy out the available stock and relist it higher.
We've seen a lot of whine threads and a lot of bad attempts at market manipulation threads lately but I think you're being a bit harsh to say that his is either of those.
Purchasing and Shipping Moon Minerals |
Kwint Sommer
Lothian Quay Industries
Otaku Invasion
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Posted - 2008.03.14 20:55:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Dal Thrax
And here we have a classic example of both use of FIFO (first in first out) and LIFO (Last in First Out) accounting. I'd say a better description of the situation is that many producers of these reactants hedged against price increase by buying reactant in bulk at a lower price. The current market sale price of moon minerals is driven by a drop in available supply and smaller, non-hedged, inventors entering the market. Of in short expect a couple month lag for sale price of the finished product to catch up with the increased cost of the raw materials.
Dal
I'd say the availability of the raw materials dropped leading to a bit of a shortage and a substantial increase in price that is continuing and will likely only be stabilized by the return of raw material supply which is contingent upon certain moons that were knocked out of production in the BoB vs. Goon (and friends on both sides) going back online. The price of the advanced materials produced from said raw materials lags the price of the raw materials thanks to lengthy production/shipping process and the general necessity of stock piling raw materials.
Purchasing and Shipping Moon Minerals |
Fitz VonHeise
The New Order.
United Connection's
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Posted - 2008.03.14 21:12:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Kwint Sommer
Originally by: Shadarle
You have no room to complain about this situation as you yourself were part of the reason it happened. You also shouldn't have to ask why it is happening as you are the reason as well.
Unless I misread his post he wasn't actually complaining, just commenting on it.
Exactly correct.
As long as I am making isk why should you be complaining?
I never sold my FC below 44,000 so I always made isk. (I just hung onto mine through the lower sells till it went up) In fact I always put up three different sell order of 44,000 46,000 and 48,000. I made isk on all of them.... just more on the higher ones.
And I am not about manipulating the market. I have one POS doing reactions. This was me letting other know what I know so they can learn. (There really are people that give away knowledge with no expectation of getting anything in return) Try it.
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Fitz VonHeise
The New Order.
United Connection's
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Posted - 2008.03.14 21:26:00 -
[8]
Well okay.. I was expecting one thing in return.
I was hoping people would realize what a nice guy I was for giving away info on this business that might help them to profit in theirs. But your sure ruining that for me! 
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Danari
Viper Squad
Triumvirate.
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Posted - 2008.03.14 22:27:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Fitz VonHeise
Well okay.. I was expecting one thing in return.
I was hoping people would realize what a nice guy I was for giving away info on this business that might help them to profit in theirs. But your sure ruining that for me!
Get used to that around here. I have, although I never tried to pass myself off as nice -- ******* is closer to it.
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Fitz VonHeise
The New Order.
United Connection's
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Posted - 2008.03.14 22:39:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Danari
Get used to that around here. I have,...
Well I've read here for months and have read Shad doing his thing. So it is interesting being on the other end. I'll try to be more amusing.
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Kwint Sommer
Lothian Quay Industries
Otaku Invasion
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Posted - 2008.03.14 22:53:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Fitz VonHeise
Originally by: Danari
Get used to that around here. I have,...
Well I've read here for months and have read Shad doing his thing. So it is interesting being on the other end. I'll try to be more amusing.
Usually he takes a much more carefully worded approach and I come off as much more of ****. I don't know what happened here.
Purchasing and Shipping Moon Minerals |
Nummb
Ministry of War
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Posted - 2008.03.15 00:11:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Dal Thrax
And here we have a classic example of both use of FIFO (first in first out) and LIFO (Last in First Out) accounting. I'd say a better description of the situation is that many producers of these reactants hedged against price increase by buying reactant in bulk at a lower price. The current market sale price of moon minerals is driven by a drop in available supply and smaller, non-hedged, inventors entering the market. Of in short expect a couple month lag for sale price of the finished product to catch up with the increased cost of the raw materials.
Dal
Thats putting some real world thought into this situation, which is particularly interesting as I am almost done with my online accounting class. The principles of accounting in the real world can apply to the Eve markets to a point, but not always 100%. Of course, there are no real governing bodies in Eve, no Forbes 400 list and no Banks writing off Billions in bad subprime mortgage losses.
I know it is impossible to know the true numbers, but I wonder how many people are buying T2 materials to produce T2 mods and how many people are just merely traders who buy and sell with no intention of ever producing anything?
I am guilty of the later, I don't have any POS's or any T2 BPO's and yet I buy T2 materials all the time. Sometimes I buy a 1 to 2 hundred million worth at once and let them sit in the hanger for a week and then sell the next weekend at a 10 to 15% mark-up. Sometimes I buy and haul from Jita to other regions. Why, you might ask I, well its something I enjoy. I may not always make the most profit, but I am no losing money and I am making enough to more than cover my dividends to my shareholders so I assume its my right to play the market as I see fit.
The question is, do actual T2 producers hate people like me? Instead of going WWJD (What Would Jesus Do?) I tend to think WWSD (What Would Shadarle Do?) and then try and not "F" up. I still think the best IPO idea would be for a good corp with access to dreads to wage all bloodly hell in low sec whacking random POS's and destroy the T2 material market. If you could raise 200 Billion isk in starting capital, buy a fleet of dreads and support ships you could real screw with a lot of people. Maybe DATAC should cross train all those guys from harvesting datacores to dread pilots and make me some more isk on my investment
...Random sentences do not entirely reflect STR-H or my ability to think, drink and post on the forums at the same time...
Originally by: Ambrose Bierce
Cogito cogito ergo cogito sum (I think that I think, therefore I think that I am.)
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Kwint Sommer
Lothian Quay Industries
Otaku Invasion
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Posted - 2008.03.15 00:44:00 -
[13]
I've actually been contemplating a few hostile takeovers myself. Frankly, the only reason I haven't asked some of my less than reputable friends about the cost is because my plans with Bunnz will be taking me out of low sec. If that changes you can count me in. Too many people are putting up towers with way too little security. I think it's getting time to show them why you need stront and a solid set of guns. 
Purchasing and Shipping Moon Minerals |
Nummb
Ministry of War
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Posted - 2008.03.15 00:53:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Kwint Sommer
I've actually been contemplating a few hostile takeovers myself. Frankly, the only reason I haven't asked some of my less than reputable friends about the cost is because my plans with Bunnz will be taking me out of low sec. If that changes you can count me in. Too many people are putting up towers with way too little security. I think it's getting time to show them why you need stront and a solid set of guns.
I am not fully read up on POS warfare, but if you put a POS into reinforced mode, does it still function at 100%, i.e. still doing moon mining and reactions? Also, how many ships do you need to put a medium POS into reinforced? I.E. will 4 BS be able to do it? Cause I can do that myself
Originally by: Ambrose Bierce
Cogito cogito ergo cogito sum (I think that I think, therefore I think that I am.)
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Shadarle
LI0NS Industries
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Posted - 2008.03.15 01:21:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Fitz VonHeise
This was me letting other know what I know so they can learn. (There really are people that give away knowledge with no expectation of getting anything in return) Try it.
Everyone does what they do so they can get something in return. Be it money, fame, personal happiness, or just pride.
The lag time on production is not much of an excuse in this case as you can stop your production if it turns unprofitable, it's not like producing a freighter and from the start to finish noticing the price dropped by 10%, destroying your margins in that long time period.
He who continues to produce below value because he values his components at what he payed and not what he could sell them for is a fool, plain and simple.
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Kwint Sommer
Lothian Quay Industries
Otaku Invasion
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Posted - 2008.03.15 01:29:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Nummb
I am not fully read up on POS warfare, but if you put a POS into reinforced mode, does it still function at 100%, i.e. still doing moon mining and reactions? Also, how many ships do you need to put a medium POS into reinforced? I.E. will 4 BS be able to do it? Cause I can do that myself
When they go into reinforced, everything requiring CPU goes offline including moon miners and silos. You can still get your stuff out of the silos though. That's also why I use hybrids on anything more significant than a small POS, they will keep firing while it's reinforced. This may seem trivial but it means they can't form up at the POS without taking out the guns first. This gives the defenders a much needed advantage for it's always better to be jumped into than vice versa.
Purchasing and Shipping Moon Minerals |
Jennai
The Greater Goon
GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2008.03.15 08:38:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Nummb
The question is, do actual T2 producers hate people like me? Instead of going WWJD (What Would Jesus Do?) I tend to think WWSD (What Would Shadarle Do?) and then try and not "F" up.
you provide a valuable service to people who don't want to go to Jita. I don't want to sell in Jita because there's too many people playing the 0.01 isk game, and I don't want to buy in Jita because hauler runs are boring and there's suicide gankers.
sometimes my region doesn't have any of the stuff I need at reasonable prices, so I just wait a couple days until someone imports more.
Originally by: Nummb
I still think the best IPO idea would be for a good corp with access to dreads to wage all bloodly hell in low sec whacking random POS's and destroy the T2 material market.
are there really all that many reactor pos in lowsec? I thought those were mostly labs, and the reactors were in 0.0 with the miners so people don't have to move as many huge loads of moon materials around.
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Amarr Citizen 155
Alternative Methods Research Group
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Posted - 2008.03.15 09:04:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Jennai
are there really all that many reactor pos in lowsec? I thought those were mostly labs, and the reactors were in 0.0 with the miners so people don't have to move as many huge loads of moon materials around.
Yes....there are.
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Why do it the hard way when you can do it the AMARR way. |
Fitz VonHeise
The New Order.
United Connection's
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Posted - 2008.03.15 10:09:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Shadarle
He who continues to produce below value because he values his components at what he payed and not what he could sell them for is a fool, plain and simple.
What you say is true.
However I am glad to report that I am not one of them. If you read my above posts you will see that I never sold my product for less then they were worth. I sold them each time for a profit. (Actually quit a healthy profit)
My point was for this thread that at current prices if you sell FC at current sell prices you are losing isk. I never sold mine at this price.
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Kwint Sommer
Lothian Quay Industries
Otaku Invasion
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Posted - 2008.03.15 22:14:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Jennai
are there really all that many reactor pos in lowsec? I thought those were mostly labs, and the reactors were in 0.0 with the miners so people don't have to move as many huge loads of moon materials around.
There are a ton of reactors in low sec. Doing the reactions as close as possible to Jita has some distinct advantages. For one thing the finished product averages somewhere between 4 and 5 times the size of the moon mins that go into it and considering a large group of reactors would mean hauling millions of m3 a month, that's a big difference. Then there's the issue of fuel, it's cheaper to get it from the macrominers in high sec than to produce your own thus you'd end up having to ship said fuel to 0.0. That said, 0.0 offers a sovereignty based fuel bonus which, for those particularly good at logistics, can make it all worthwhile. Ultimately though, a large chunk of the public trade in advanced moon materials comes from small time producers in low sec and as more and more people try to cash in on it there are more and more poorly defended towers full of valuable mods and (if they are too dumb to use stront) moon mins and materials.
Purchasing and Shipping Moon Minerals |
Salisuka
98.4
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Posted - 2008.03.16 10:37:00 -
[21]
I'm wondering if the Dyspo price rise is due to the conflict down south or due to market manipulation. Sometimes it looks like it's due to the conflict and at other times it looks like market manipulation (quite a good one at that).
Either way, I, like Kwint, got out of the reaction market because it looks saturated right now.
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Kwint Sommer
Lothian Quay Industries
Otaku Invasion
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Posted - 2008.03.16 10:51:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Salisuka
I'm wondering if the Dyspo price rise is due to the conflict down south or due to market manipulation. Sometimes it looks like it's due to the conflict and at other times it looks like market manipulation (quite a good one at that).
Either way, I, like Kwint, got out of the reaction market because it looks saturated right now.
The war is definitely having an affect. Whether that's because it's creating a shortage (as I suspect) or because it's creating a speculative boom based around fear of a shortage is not clear. What is clear is that I'm now fully out of anything involving Dysprosium.
Purchasing and Shipping Moon Minerals |
Ghreymar LaNayeur
Pariah Corp
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Posted - 2008.03.17 20:16:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Kwint Sommer
Originally by: Salisuka
I'm wondering if the Dyspo price rise is due to the conflict down south or due to market manipulation. Sometimes it looks like it's due to the conflict and at other times it looks like market manipulation (quite a good one at that).
Either way, I, like Kwint, got out of the reaction market because it looks saturated right now.
The war is definitely having an affect. Whether that's because it's creating a shortage (as I suspect) or because it's creating a speculative boom based around fear of a shortage is not clear. What is clear is that I'm now fully out of anything involving Dysprosium.
i used to make a killing reselling dyspo products in jita, but i've pretty much all but pulled out now. the market is so friggin volatile, and alot of them have been in freefall for quite a while, with people dumping billions worth on the market at rock bottom prices.
what i dont understand is why people arent buying more off the market in jita and dumping to sell orders in rens/amarr. its been taking daaaays for the prices to equalize, getting to the point where i'm considering dropping the bill and buying a freighter.
for those looking to do some market manipulation though, alot of the larger low-sec pirate corps have been accruing quite a capital fleet of late. i bet if a team of moon miners did their research on moon locations and took this to C&P they could do a good job of driving the prices up further.
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Leowen
Industrial Giants
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Posted - 2008.03.18 03:18:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Nummb
I still think the best IPO idea would be for a good corp with access to dreads to wage all bloodly hell in low sec whacking random POS's and destroy the T2 material market. If you could raise 200 Billion isk in starting capital, buy a fleet of dreads and support ships you could real screw with a lot of people....
Not a bad idea, not bad at all. Or maybe just hire a merc corp to do the dirty, I'm sure there are a few out there that would love the challenge... Anyone else with a serious interest in this idea feel free to convo me. Suitably fat wallet required to share costs and benefits.
The high-end advanced materials market is very hard to fathom right now. I watch them constantly and have gotten to know several of the large traders, and have spotted and become intimately aware of some of the manipulations. I've played three of the markets myself lately, with the last being Hypersynaptic Fibers a few weeks ago when it went from sub-6k to 7.5k+ p/u. A classic example of unpredictability - I bought up the whole market for about 15b at 6-6.8k, sold all of it back out at 7.2-9k, and two weeks after I sold back all of my 2m or so units the price is still at 7.2k. That's 20% above the lowest sell price before my manipulation. Why? Common sense says the market should rebalance right?
Anyway my point is I feel that I know as much as anyone - yet I still feel as though I'm largely walking in the dark a lot of the time. I don't think anyone has all the answers to any of the high-end materials markets today. There are too many variables at work - day-traders, mid to long-term manipulators, cycles of supply delivery and demand spikes, finite moon resources that no-one but CCP can even begin to understand, war effects, etc etc. When you play in these markets right now you need to understand its typical movements as much as you can, have a big wallet, and most importantly have big b@lls that you're happy to have shaved from time to time. If not tbh it might be better to go play somewhere else.
Me, I'm off for another BS&C 
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Kylar Renpurs
Dusk Blade
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Posted - 2008.03.18 03:27:00 -
[25]
Quote:
i used to make a killing reselling dyspo products in jita, but i've pretty much all but pulled out now. the market is so friggin volatile, and alot of them have been in freefall for quite a while, with people dumping billions worth on the market at rock bottom prices.
Interestingly enough, many T2 components are being sold at below-reprocess value at the moment. *cough*
Improve Market Competition! |
Fitz VonHeise
The New Order.
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Posted - 2008.03.20 03:44:00 -
[26]
Hummm....
looks like prices have gone up to what I mentioned: 45,000+.
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Leowen
Industrial Giants
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Posted - 2008.03.21 11:06:00 -
[27]
Watch for the drop. Some people out there are holding a LOT of inventory...
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Akysha
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Posted - 2008.03.21 15:26:00 -
[28]
Just hold up to your prices.
*******s that are trying to kill the market are just trying to kill competition.
They will have to stop their attempt one day or another.
What about creating a lil forum for our group...
You guys ever heard of something called OPEP ?
(Realife thing you bunch of nerds  )
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Robacz
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Posted - 2008.03.21 15:37:00 -
[29]
Originally by: Akysha
Just hold up to your prices.
*******s that are trying to kill the market are just trying to kill competition.
They will have to stop their attempt one day or another.
What about creating a lil forum for our group...
You guys ever heard of something called OPEP ?
(Realife thing you bunch of nerds )
It is OPEC in english.
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Akysha
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Posted - 2008.03.21 16:06:00 -
[30]
Thx OPEC then..
They try to kill us by killing the market.
Let's organize so that all producer suffering can get organized.
And i'm not kidding about that OPEC thing.
I'll talk to our IT guy to see if he can get a website up with a database to share our price and discuss what are the minimum and maximum prices for Each Complex compounds.
The more we are to participate the more stable our income will be.
If somebody try to sell under our price, he will first be invited in the Cartel... If he refuses to settle his prices... we can find ways to convince him.
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