EVE Search - Massive mineral crash imminent?

All Channels

Market Discussions

Massive mineral crash imminent?

» Click here to find additional results for this topic using Google

Monitor this thread via RSS [?]

Pages: 1 :: [one page]
Author	Thread Statistics \| Show CCP posts - 0 post(s)
Shadarle LI0NS Industries	Posted - 2008.03.28 14:30:00 - [1] I am getting the impression, from my monitoring of many different markets, that minerals are about to crash really hard. The key market I am watching is the freighter market. Over the last few months prices have slowly been coming down, in that time trit prices went up... thus destroying the margins. Not only that but I am seeing large stockpiles build up in many places that used to have 2-3 at most. When people stop manufacturing freighters it will start having an effect on trit in particular. I have also noticed pricing edging down among most other T1 ships. Prices can't keep coming down without minerals taking a dive to compensate, so I am predicting a downturn in at least a few mineral markets.
Letrange Chaosstorm Corporation Apoapsis Multiversal Consortium	Posted - 2008.03.28 14:51:00 - [2] I think you're right, I suspect that a lot of the people that wanted jump freighters, go them. The changes to jump freighters were also not significant enough to cause a massive increase in demand, just enough to make people feel less ripped off. so the demand for freighters will return to it's normal levels.
Karanth Eve's Brothers of Destiny Free Trade Zone.	Posted - 2008.03.28 15:04:00 - [3] Um, so, do I start buying now, or just panic, or...? What do I do? "Current Earth-Destruction Status"
SencneS Rebellion Against big Irreversible Dinks The Cyrene Initiative	Posted - 2008.03.28 15:45:00 - [4] I'm leaning more toward the fact Carriers are not as popular as they where before. They still do OK but they are also a large consumer of Trit, and their demand has gone down. This is only compounded by the fact the "Great EVE war" has slowed WAY down. A lot less significant losses per day means people are staying in their ships longer. It's about to get interesting that's for sure, and one of the main reasons I have held off purchasing Trit recently for manufacturing is purely because I too am predicting a crash. Amarr for Life
Brisco Smiley Peppermint Bay Trading Company	Posted - 2008.03.28 16:16:00 - [5] At least in my corner of the galaxy, tritanium and pyerite had been at unsustainable levels. They seem to be starting to come down to more reasonable prices. All the while, mexallon and nocxium have seen only minimal shifts. I would guess there have been a lot of things in the mix: the cap ships, the war, the jihad, manipulation and cascading speculation, probably a wave of farmer bannination too. All of those may be letting up at once. Thoughout this last spike, ore supply from low-level operators has been growing in volume without rising in price. Manufacturing of some items has seemed on hiatus lately, probably because of the spike. The items I track haven't been going up in price, so it seems a lot of mineral consumers are just waiting it out. We may see a lot of manufacturing starts as the prices come down. My guess is less "crash," more "end of spike." Cheers, Brisco Smiley
Amarr Citizen 155 Alternative Methods Research Group	Posted - 2008.03.28 16:22:00 - [6] Man I am so tired of hearing how the jihad has affected the market. I have simply read too many posts the past few weeks where everyone and their dog thinks that hulks are going to double in price because so many are being blown up. or that mineral prices are going to go up because miners are too scared to come out and play. Or that T2 components are going to double in price because of this so called jihad. Can we please put to rest the idea that the jihad is going to have any real affect on the market? ---------------------------------------------- Why do it the hard way when you can do it the AMARR way.
Wadaya Trailerpark Industries	Posted - 2008.03.28 16:25:00 - [7] What you're seeing is similar to the hulk/covetor situation that happened between April and May of last year. With the addition of inventing Hulks, there was a major spike in Covetor BPO's bought. Some to invent with, most to sell en masse to the Hulk inventors. Within a month's time, the Covetor went from a relatively stable 8 mil profit to selling barely over material cost. I think we are seeing the same thing here. Many people mass producing Freighters and it is oversaturating the market. Massive undercutting ensues because most people aren't patient, and we end up where we are now. Even selling at 850-900 mil, freighter margins are still 100-150 mil profit, so expect the prices to decrease further. After that people will be flooding the sell forums with Freighter BPO's with 1 me, probably over the summer. With multiple run Jump Freighter BPC's, Freighter demand might increase a bit, but not near enough to absord the saturation. Anyway, that's my take on the matter. Wad
Brisco Smiley Peppermint Bay Trading Company	Posted - 2008.03.28 16:32:00 - [8] Originally by: Amarr Citizen 155 Can we please put to rest the idea that the jihad is going to have any real affect on the market? That's just the thing. The idea may be coming to rest. When everybody and their dogs weren't posting, they were buying. Then manipulators pounced. Even a bad idea can be powerful.
Hexxx Sebiestor tribe	Posted - 2008.03.28 16:34:00 - [9] What the main drift of the twentieth century has revealed is that the economy has become concentrated and incorporated in the great hierarchies, the military has become enlarged and decisive to the shape of the entire economic structure; and moreover the economic and the military have become structurally and deeply interrelated, as the economy has become a seemingly permanent war economy; and military men and policies have increasingly penetrated the corporate economy.ö C. Wright Mills, The Power Elite,1956 Director \| www.eve-bank.net
Amarr Citizen 155 Alternative Methods Research Group	Posted - 2008.03.28 17:40:00 - [10] Originally by: Hexxx Edited by: Hexxx on 28/03/2008 16:38:57 I think the slowdown in the "Great EVE War" has caused alot of this. Someone wiser than I summed it up as such; "What the main drift...has revealed is that the economy has become concentrated and incorporated in the great hierarchies, the military has become enlarged and decisive to the shape of the entire economic structure; and moreover the economic and the military have become structurally and deeply interrelated, as the economy has become a seemingly permanent war economy; and military men and policies have increasingly penetrated the corporate economy.ö C. Wright Mills, The Power Elite,1956 edit: made it prettier Thanks for the prettier-ness. I was slightly confused before. ---------------------------------------------- Why do it the hard way when you can do it the AMARR way.
Block Ukx KDM Corp Firmus Ixion	Posted - 2008.03.28 18:36:00 - [11] I thought you speculated prices were going to go up [Link]. Which mineral prices are you expecting to crash? For some odd reason there is a huge demand for Tritanium, even though ship prices are dropping. Shuttles will reduce the increased Tritanium demand, but to what level remains unknown. BSAC Mineral Market Manipulation (MinMa) Information Desk
Lithalnas Headcrabs	Posted - 2008.03.28 19:23:00 - [12] I dont belive that the price of trit will drop below 2.0 anytime in the future, that is what it was way back when i started playing and i will always judge that as the absolute minimum price of trit. That was the price of trit way back before revelations, before drakes and rohks existed. I also think that the prices we see now are actually sort of an inflated aftershock of the revelations mineral increase. When i say inflated i mean the increase was only compounded by "the great wars" of the past year. To those who think titan and mothership losses impact mineral prices you would probably be wrong, the reason for this is that there is a lot more trit, pyerite and other minerals going into the battleships that are lost each day in eve. So much so that looseing a super cap or even just a fleet of dreadnoughts is not going to push the price of these minerals upward. ------------- fixed for greater eve content
Feronia Magma Industries	Posted - 2008.03.28 20:48:00 - [13] I guess we're experiencing a small post-patch fallback. The Trinity patch brought back a bunch of old time players. They cashed in their LP's and RP's and bought lots of the new toys. Due to this massive demand most manufacturers had to expand their production and we witnessed a real boosting economy. This explains the upward price pressure on minerals and moon minerals a few weeks after the patch. Now lots of those returning players are bored again and start leaving the game. Builders/inventors are stuck with piles of unsold ships and the undercutting starts. As a result less ships are being build, so mineral and moon mineral prices are coming down fast. These small market depressions have happened before. It takes a while before the market adjusts itself. Anyway, it offers some opportunities if you pick the right time.
Hexxx Sebiestor tribe	Posted - 2008.03.28 21:08:00 - [14] Originally by: Feronia I guess we're experiencing a small post-patch fallback. The Trinity patch brought back a bunch of old time players. They cashed in their LP's and RP's and bought lots of the new toys. Due to this massive demand most manufacturers had to expand their production and we witnessed a real boosting economy. This explains the upward price pressure on minerals and moon minerals a few weeks after the patch. Now lots of those returning players are bored again and start leaving the game. Builders/inventors are stuck with piles of unsold ships and the undercutting starts. As a result less ships are being build, so mineral and moon mineral prices are coming down fast. These small market depressions have happened before. It takes a while before the market adjusts itself. Anyway, it offers some opportunities if you pick the right time. I guess we could call this a collapse of the "Post-Patch Novelty Bubble". I still stick to my point of: RL recession caused by lack of consumer spending EVE price pullbacks caused by lack of consumer spending (War is good for business. Peace is not) It's likely a combination of the two with some other possible factors. Director \| www.eve-bank.net
Amarr Citizen 155 Alternative Methods Research Group	Posted - 2008.03.28 21:37:00 - [15] Originally by: Hexxx I guess we could call this a collapse of the "Post-Patch Novelty Bubble". I still stick to my point of: RL recession caused by lack of consumer spending EVE price pullbacks caused by lack of consumer spending (War is good for business. Peace is not) It's likely a combination of the two with some other possible factors. I guess its about time CCP sends out our rebate checks to encourage spending?? (If you don't live in the US you probably don't know what this is and should read HERE.) ---------------------------------------------- Why do it the hard way when you can do it the AMARR way.
Cogwheel New Eden Credit Bureau	Posted - 2008.03.28 21:57:00 - [16] Edited by: Cogwheel on 28/03/2008 21:57:40 Originally by: Amarr Citizen 155 I guess its about time CCP sends out our rebate checks to encourage spending?? GIMMEH MAH 600 ISK!!! Edit: Actually, they need to send the notices that they WILL be sending checks first...
EBANK Ricdic Eve-Tech Savings n Loans Zzz	Posted - 2008.03.28 22:50:00 - [17] Actually as someone who has been pulling out his mining lasers a bit last week there was a large Jihad presence pretty much anywhere I went. Not only that, the public were aware of it. Calls in local when a goon was spotted, passive shield tanked barges in the belts with battleship supports (in 0.7+). I think there is definetly a presence there, people aren't mining as much as normal due to tanked ships, some aren't mining at all. Others are using T1 variants to reduce losses (2 stealth bombers seem to be able to easily drop even heavily tanked hulks). It is a rather interesting scenario. I wonder how/if CCP will implement any changes as a result of this as I believe Jihad are limiting mineral supplies to the market quite phenomenally. I look forward to seeing the way things pan out, but I think the Jihad can tap themselves on the back, they wanted public recognition and they got it. Who ever thought people would fear for their lives in empire space outside of war when not carrying cargo of any real value.
Ava Santiago AAC	Posted - 2008.03.28 23:15:00 - [18] I'm noticing widening spreads between buy and sell orders for Trit. It used to be that the gap (not in the forge of course)between hi-sec and low sec prices was about 0.3 isk. Last I checked, it's closer to 1.1. I'm not sure the price increase isn't the result of a drop in transport activity. If the trit buy price is related to a drop in veldspar transporting activity and that condition continues, the price could remain high until the margins between the sell and the buy prices become large enough to attract haulers back into the sector. Concord doesn't provide consequences. Concord provides insurance payouts.
Akira Miyatake Garoun Investment Bank	Posted - 2008.03.29 00:53:00 - [19] Why is everyone focusing on trit? In certain hubs nocxium has lost 10 isk p/u in less than 10 days, pyerite is dropping below 5 and isogen will probably bottom out at 53-55 p/u. I haven't been in Jita in a long time, so I don't know what prices are like there but I have made quite a bit by selling mega for a mark up. I really wish that we had more of a difference between the minerals something like: Tritanium: 2.5-3.5 Pyerite: 17.5-27.5 Mexallon: 50.5-90.5 Isogen: 130.5-180.5 Nocxium: 220.5-260.5 Zydrine: 1550-1950 Megacyte: 2100-2600 I think this would really shake up the market and make certain minerals worth more than they are currently are and make mining more important as well as hauling minerals from one region to another. If CCP wanted to address this issue they need to remove all T1 loot from missions and loot. This might actually create a job for haulers and make miners happy. Then they could team up to protect themselves and make more isk mining, traders and haulers would make more by moving minerals and goods around thus, stimulating the market make everyone happy. Except for all the people who mine via looting drone missions and buying undervalued mods from the market and refining to get minerals cheaper than via buying direct from the market. Then again, this could be the downfall of us all. Quote: Did you really intend to type that or did you just have a really long and complicated epileptic seizure and that was the result?
Shadarle LI0NS Industries	Posted - 2008.03.29 01:16:00 - [20] I focussed on trit because that is the main mineral used, accounting for cost, in capital ships such as freighters. Those ships have an excess in supply and declining margins, thus people will stop making as many, thus less trit will be needed, thus supply will be greater than demand, thus prices will drop.
Rho'varo Parvo Universalis	Posted - 2008.03.29 02:42:00 - [21] Originally by: Akira Miyatake I really wish that we had more of a difference between the minerals something like: [list omitted] If CCP wanted to address this issue [... more omitted] My impression is that CCP does address this issue, albeit with nudges rather than forceful pushes. Base Prices for basic minerals is formulaic, and deus ex machina universe changes (like the slight adjustment of drone-dropped ore mineral yields in the latest patch) seems to nudge prices toward this mix (though obviously there are a lot of factors in play): ò Trit: 2 ( = 2 ^ 1) ò Pyer: 8 ( = 2 ^ 3) ò Mexa: 32 ( = 2 ^ 5) ò Isog: 128 ( = 2 ^ 7) ò Nocx: 512 ( = 2 ^ 9) ò Zydr: 2048 ( = 2 ^ 11) ò Mega: 8192 ( = 2 ^ 13)
Amarr Citizen 155 Alternative Methods Research Group	Posted - 2008.03.29 03:11:00 - [22] Originally by: Cogwheel Edited by: Cogwheel on 28/03/2008 21:57:40 Originally by: Amarr Citizen 155 I guess its about time CCP sends out our rebate checks to encourage spending?? GIMMEH MAH 600 ISK!!! Edit: Actually, they need to send the notices that they WILL be sending checks first... I actually received my notice the other day saying they would begin sending out the checks in may. ---------------------------------------------- Why do it the hard way when you can do it the AMARR way.
Danari Viper Squad Triumvirate.	Posted - 2008.03.29 05:55:00 - [23] Originally by: Rho'varo ò Trit: 2 ( = 2 ^ 1) ò Pyer: 8 ( = 2 ^ 3) ò Mexa: 32 ( = 2 ^ 5) ò Isog: 128 ( = 2 ^ 7) ò Nocx: 512 ( = 2 ^ 9) ò Zydr: 2048 ( = 2 ^ 11) ò Mega: 8192 ( = 2 ^ 13) On the demand side, the 4:1 ratio holds up until you get to mega, which has about 1/2 the demand of zyd.
Lord Fitz	Posted - 2008.03.30 04:51:00 - [24] Originally by: Shadarle The key market I am watching is the freighter market. Over the last few months prices have slowly been coming down, in that time trit prices went up... thus destroying the margins. Not only that but I am seeing large stockpiles build up in many places that used to have 2-3 at most. When people stop manufacturing freighters it will start having an effect on trit in particular. I have also noticed pricing edging down among most other T1 ships. Prices can't keep coming down without minerals taking a dive to compensate, so I am predicting a downturn in at least a few mineral markets. Freighter BPCs have hit the floor in price, from a post-trinity spike which made producing from a BPC totally unprofitable, there are now alot more BPOs out there. Jump Freighters have really stalled abit on account of good supply and not all that much demand, their prices hedged up by higher advanced material prices. So there isn't as much demand for freighters as there is now supply. Thus freighter prices will drop until people stop building them. Quote: I dont belive that the price of trit will drop below 2.0 anytime in the future, that is what it was way back when i started playing and i will always judge that as the absolute minimum price of trit. In 2004 Trit 0.6-0.8/unit Pyerite 3.5 / unit Mex 6-7 isk / unit Isogen 110 isk / unit Nocx 350 isk / unit (got up to 650 isk/unit in 2006) Trit, Pyerite and Mex have all increased hugely in price, while Isogen/Nocx have fallen dramatically, and even mega/zyd aren't as high as they were (though higher than their 2007 lows). The side effect of this has meant that lowsec ores are worth less than highsec ores.
YouGotRipped	Posted - 2008.03.30 06:39:00 - [25] Edited by: YouGotRipped on 30/03/2008 06:42:01 Wow, an actual post from Shadarle on mineral prices that's not a brag masked as a concern. Although I agree with you I also think that the time frame should also be taken into account. That wouldn't be much of a crash then but a price drop over time. And in my opinion that's the most likely scenario. However there are ways to deal even with a potential crash situation. What I'm doing right now (and coincidentally it fits the situation perfectly and also lowers my cycle time) is diversifying my production and making sure I'm not caught with a huge amount of an item on my hands) thus if a crash does occur I could play the 0.01 isk game and get rid of the stocks very quickly). Hope this helps. Please visit your user settings to re-enable images.
SonOfAGhost Minmatar Munitions and Tactical Assets Repository Zzz	Posted - 2008.03.30 10:09:00 - [26] Buy price for trit in Hek is down 0.60 in a week. I don't think 'imminent' is the word you're looking for Originally by: CCP Explorer This is intended, to not clutter the overview with information that new players don't need in their first few hours. (on stargates not being on overview)
Alex Redwidth	Posted - 2008.03.31 16:43:00 - [27] I don't agree, I personally believe demand is shifting to other regions. In my region I've seen trit jump up 0.2 in two weeks, the in game graph shows moving avg up 0.8 for the month. Given the amount of Trit being traded has remained stable along the way, it suggests there's just more demand or folk just aren't as willing to travel for the better prices. I believe these prices are currently a little high and that may mean we see a small correction of the prices on some of the high-sec minerals (trit, pyerite) shortly, but nothing the market won't expect and certainly nothing on the scale of a 'crash'.

Pages: 1 :: [one page]

COPYRIGHT NOTICE
EVE Online, the EVE logo, EVE and all associated logos and designs are the intellectual property of CCP hf. All artwork, screenshots, characters, vehicles, storylines, world facts or other recognizable features of the intellectual property relating to these trademarks are likewise the intellectual property of CCP hf. EVE Online and the EVE logo are the registered trademarks of CCP hf. All rights are reserved worldwide. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. CCP hf. has granted permission to EVE-Search.com to use EVE Online and all associated logos and designs for promotional and information purposes on its website but does not endorse, and is not in any way affiliated with, EVE-Search.com. CCP is in no way responsible for the content on or functioning of this website, nor can it be liable for any damage arising from the use of this website.