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V.S. Naipul's secret to market trading

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Finideach	Posted - 2008.04.17 03:42:00 - [1] A lot of people come here asking "how do I make money being a trader." I came across this quote awhile back, it's from V.S. Naipul's A Bend in the River and I think it sums up perfectly what is needed to succeed in the Eve economy and why so few do. If you want to be successful at Eve trading then - at the start - as your basic daily practice - you should read this quote and think about it just a little bit. "A businessman isnÆt a mathematician. Remember that. Never become hypnotized by the beauty of numbers. A businessman is someone who buys at ten and is happy to get out at twelve. The other kind of man buys at ten, sees it rise to eighteen and does nothing. He is waiting for it to get to twenty. The beauty of numbers. When it drops to ten again he waits for it to get back to eighteen. When it drops to two he waits for it to get back to ten. Well, it gets back there. But he has wasted a quarter of his life. And all heÆs got out of his money is a little mathematical excitement.ö I said, ôThis shop: assuming you bought it at ten, what would you say you were selling it to me for?ö ôTwo. In three or four years it will climb up to six. Business never dies in Jita; it is only interrupted. For me it is a waste of time to see that two get up to six. There is more for me in shuttles in Hek. But for you it will be a trebling of your capital. What you must always know is when to get out.ö It is the zen of trading. (And perhaps I took some literary license there!)
Selene D'Celeste Caldari The D'Celeste Trading Company	Posted - 2008.04.17 04:01:00 - [2] Well, I appreciate the philosophical approach to this, except for all of the economic mathematical theory that EVE tends to sometimes disturbingly perfectly mirror. Where's Akita T when you need him, I can think of a few fun threads we've had over the months/years on such topics =)
Le Pong	Posted - 2008.04.17 05:49:00 - [3] V.S. Naipaul was born in my country! :D Go Trinidad!
Ordon Gundar Caldari Impending Doom Inc. The Crimson Federation	Posted - 2008.04.17 07:53:00 - [4] Edited by: Ordon Gundar on 17/04/2008 07:53:24 Basically, he is saying make your margin and move on, let the next guy worry about what to do with it. Makes perfect sense to me (although I would never buy anything for 10 that I knew I could only sell for 12!)
Protheroe	Posted - 2008.04.17 11:38:00 - [5] Quote: Makes perfect sense to me (although I would never buy anything for 10 that I knew I could only sell for 12!) What if you can sell a hundred million of them in a short amount of time?
Finideach	Posted - 2008.04.17 12:10:00 - [6] If you're *only* making 20% per transaction you'll double the operating capital involved in 5 transactions. Not a bad return. Meanwhile the mathematician will be chasing even better profits, holding on to get the highest theoretical return and their operating capital just sits there. Or to quote a more recent market guru: longs make money, shorts make money, pigs get slaughtered.
Ctn Blood	Posted - 2008.04.17 12:19:00 - [7] Excelent topic! Great quote Finideach.
Xantheris Unknown-Heroes Black Star Alliance	Posted - 2008.04.17 14:13:00 - [8] I like that quote. I've only recently started trading a few weeks ago and I learned pretty quick that it is most important to make your profit FAST, as the market is volatile. And knowing when to get the hell out of a trade is just as important as anything else. I like it when a noob on the MD forum asks for trading advice, and someone either says "Learn yourself" or "buy low, sell high." Both are true, but more (or just as) important as "buy low, sell high" is learn not to be greedy and when to get out, even at a loss. Well at least this is my experience.
Petyr Baelich Taggart Transdimensional Virtue of Selfishness	Posted - 2008.04.17 14:35:00 - [9] Great advice, all. Every time I've been burned in trading has been when I've sat on items waiting for them to get back up to "acceptable" levels, (or tried to engineer those levels myself while operating against market forces. Every time I've made scads of money in trading has been when I've simply gone with the flow of market forces and given them a polite nudge or two.
Nummb Amarr	Posted - 2008.04.17 14:37:00 - [10] This has been an interesting read and for the most part very good advice. I tend to use a more balanced approach to trading with a solid mixture of both long and short orders. I have certain items that I know will sell fast and I will only touch that item once a week. I have other orders that may only move between 5 to 10 a week but make such a high return that it is worth the wait. For instance, there are items that only reprocess into 4 nocxium and 8 isogen and yet regularly sell for 175k isk. The secret is to set up buy ordres 10-15% higher than the reprocess rate. People will think you are dumb for buying a module that is not worth the mineral value while you laugh all the bank with a very hefty return. I think it is also different from a manufacturing perspective as well. I have a quite a large collection of BPO's and they get rotated on a weekly basis. I don't just keep making the same thing over and over again. I have enough factory slots to quickly spot a good market and produce quickly to maximize profit on the hot item of the day/week. I also keep a few clients happy with regular supplies of ammo. Some mission runners are very appreciative of being able to purchase 100k up to 1million missiles at once and not have to worry about ammo for the next few weeks. I get a good mark-up, they are happy they don't have to make a trip to a different station and they know all they need to do is evemail me when they need more. Again, it all depends on your patience, your capital, and your tolerance level. When all else fails, take a loss and screw with some other market to make yourself feel better.
Finideach	Posted - 2008.04.17 15:05:00 - [11] As I said at the beginning: Quote: If you want to be successful at Eve trading then - at the start - as your basic daily practice - you should read this quote and think about it just a little bit. This was intended for beginners at their starting stage and basic practices. I personally think it can apply even into the advanced stage concepts - whether short or long - but mainly it was advice for the newer folks. Your mileage may vary.
Mr Horizontal Gallente KIA Corp KIA Alliance	Posted - 2008.04.17 15:40:00 - [12] TBH I think Lord Rothschild's 'buy on the sound of cannon, sell on the sound of [victory] trumpet' is possibly the most sage advice for trading.
Feronia Gallente Magma Industries	Posted - 2008.04.17 15:46:00 - [13] I would change this to: "A businessman is someone who buys at ten, sees it rise to eighteen, detects a trend change and sells at seventeen. He laughs at people who sell at twelve.ö
Midas Man Caldari Dzark Asylum	Posted - 2008.04.17 16:01:00 - [14] My own personal take on this would be "buy buy buy buy at 10, sell at 12, sell at 15, sell at 18, sell at 15, sell at 12" always turning a profit while riding the wave
Petyr Baelich Taggart Transdimensional Virtue of Selfishness	Posted - 2008.04.17 17:02:00 - [15] Originally by: Midas Man My own personal take on this would be "buy buy buy buy at 10, sell at 12, sell at 15, sell at 18, sell at 15, sell at 12" always turning a profit while riding the wave Stop it! Obscure, sabotaged, or very basic advice only in here!
Confuzer Polaris Project Curatores Veritatis Alliance	Posted - 2008.04.17 22:56:00 - [16] "I profit because I am smarter then you", would be mine. People who don't understand isk should mission some more... so I can get their hard work and sell it for more.
Kyle Nav	Posted - 2008.04.18 02:04:00 - [17] Even in real life trading the most important aspects everyone looks over when they get into trading is not the trade scheme but the exit strategy. What separates a beginning trader from a good one is their ability to let the profits run. for a beginner a nice way to trade is to only buy in small amounts of a type of unit. It never helps to keep a large buffer of units. I think hexx explained it for a bank but, just like a bank a trader wants to keep a very small buffer or else he is not using all of his isk to its full potential. Of course this changes if your stockpiling for a large market change ( such as the recent trit. market)
Finideach	Posted - 2008.04.18 02:43:00 - [18] In real life I do a lot of work that exposes the perils of inventory accumulation. Stagnant inventory can be the death of almost any effort - whether that inventory is physical, virtual, a product or knowledge. I was able to successfully call the housing bubble burst point within a few months when the days to sell a house surpassed 6 months (which for some odd unknown reason seems to be a universal sign in many industries of pending collapse). Of course now it's up to like 10months of inventory or something crazy like that. Indeed I'd wager there's more risk to holding inventory to create a larger profit, than there is in moving inventory quickly to get some profit.
Shakuul Caldari Extreme Addiction Atrum Tempestas Foedus	Posted - 2008.04.18 07:00:00 - [19] Originally by: Petyr Baelich Originally by: Midas Man My own personal take on this would be "buy buy buy buy at 10, sell at 12, sell at 15, sell at 18, sell at 15, sell at 12" always turning a profit while riding the wave Stop it! Obscure, sabotaged, or very basic advice only in here! QFT. This applies to all trade threads! I'd imagine eventually a trader will quit the game and decide **** it...and then post numerous specific examples that new traders or non traders can actually learn from. Until then, the market disc forums will be filled with non-helpful, non-specific, or otherwise obvious advice like "buy low, sell high" and "get market skills."
Selene D'Celeste Caldari The D'Celeste Trading Company	Posted - 2008.04.18 13:56:00 - [20] Originally by: Shakuul I'd imagine eventually a trader will quit the game and decide **** it...and then post numerous specific examples that new traders or non traders can actually learn from. Until then, the market disc forums will be filled with non-helpful, non-specific, or otherwise obvious advice like "buy low, sell high" and "get market skills." Just to ruin your day, here are several secrets of the universe. In order of importance, they ar...[TRANSMISSION LOST].
Petyr Baelich Taggart Transdimensional Virtue of Selfishness	Posted - 2008.04.18 13:59:00 - [21] Originally by: Shakuul QFT. This applies to all trade threads! I'd imagine eventually a trader will quit the game and decide **** it...and then post numerous specific examples that new traders or non traders can actually learn from. Until then, the market disc forums will be filled with non-helpful, non-specific, or otherwise obvious advice like "buy low, sell high" and "get market skills." If they do, those "specific examples" will be nonviable within a day. The only really good advice is in the realm of general strategy, and, like ship-to-ship PVP, it's knowledge best learned by doing, not reading.
Mr Horizontal Gallente KIA Corp KIA Alliance	Posted - 2008.04.19 00:27:00 - [22] Originally by: Shakuul I'd imagine eventually a trader will quit the game and decide **** it...and then post numerous specific examples that new traders or non traders can actually learn from. Until then, the market disc forums will be filled with non-helpful, non-specific, or otherwise obvious advice like "buy low, sell high" and "get market skills." I do sometimes find it ironic and funny. Every trader thinks he has come across his or her goldmine in the game, and doesn't want to spill the beans. Truth is there is always someone else who is doing exactly what you're doing. Director \| www.eve-bank.net
Shar Tegral	Posted - 2008.04.19 00:36:00 - [23] Originally by: Shakuul Until then, the market disc forums will be filled with non-helpful, non-specific, or otherwise obvious advice like "buy low, sell high" and "get market skills." How eloquent and how wrong. I do tell anyone specifics on these forums because 1 minute after I post it is no longer true. Add into the variable that Mr Horizontal pointed out, that you are likely not the only one, only makes any specific advice that much more volatile. But if it makes it easier for you to think things are as they are, go ahead. Far better for people to find peace with their lack of success with a nice comfortable cloak of self delusion. To Shar -verb: 1 - To say what you mean. 2 - To say what it means. 3 - To say something mean.
Ava Santiago Minmatar	Posted - 2008.04.19 01:23:00 - [24] The real challenge is to learn to buy high and sell low. Concord doesn't provide consequences. Concord provides insurance payouts.
Finideach	Posted - 2008.04.19 17:51:00 - [25] Success in the markets is less a collection of set formulas to follow like a cooking recipe but rather a good understanding of theories and concepts that you modify based on context.
Shakuul Caldari Extreme Addiction Atrum Tempestas Foedus	Posted - 2008.04.19 19:51:00 - [26] Originally by: Selene D'Celeste Just to ruin your day, here are several secrets of the universe. In order of importance, they ar...[TRANSMISSION LOST]. I lol'd Originally by: Petyr Baelich If they do, those "specific examples" will be nonviable within a day. The only really good advice is in the realm of general strategy, and, like ship-to-ship PVP, it's knowledge best learned by doing, not reading. Right, my point was it would take a trader who was leaving the game to give out specific examples. Alternatively, people might give out examples of trades were previously successful. Sometimes people like to show off their epeens and brag about market manip, but I've never seen anyone post screens or anything substantive. Originally by: Mr Horizontal I do sometimes find it ironic and funny. Every trader thinks he has come across his or her goldmine in the game, and doesn't want to spill the beans. Truth is there is always someone else who is doing exactly what you're doing. Right, so you just cross your fingers that the other guy is doing it in a different region. Originally by: Shar Tegral I do tell anyone specifics on these forums because 1 minute after I post it is no longer true. Add into the variable that Mr Horizontal pointed out, that you are likely not the only one, only makes any specific advice that much more volatile. But if it makes it easier for you to think things are as they are, go ahead. Far better for people to find peace with their lack of success with a nice comfortable cloak of self delusion. Really? Do THAT many people sit on market discussion and spam F5? I'm just commenting that there are relatively few posts with detailed explanations of trading and/or market manipulation that occurred in the somewhat distant past (a week or a month or so ago). There certainly is the worry that if you post current trading protips, they will become obsolete very quickly. However, I think the other more significant worry is that by posting about trading success in general more people will try their hand at it and someone might catch on to what you're doing . On the other hand, maybe you can use all those noob traders to offload your inventory when the price of the item you just manipulated is going south.
Shar Tegral	Posted - 2008.04.19 20:12:00 - [27] Originally by: Shakuul Really? Do THAT many people sit on market discussion and spam F5? Actually, yes. There are very few who contribute but many who lurk. Why do you think good ipo's sell out soooooo fast. And, I've tested this , specific trade information does get acted on quickly if it is posted here. Very quickly, it doesn't even require more than 5 people to read it either. Around here, people really will cut your throat... and bill your widow for the knife's depreciated value. To Shar -verb: 1 - To say what you mean. 2 - To say what it means. 3 - To say something mean.
Kazzac Elentria	Posted - 2008.04.20 03:49:00 - [28] Originally by: Shar Tegral Originally by: Shakuul Really? Do THAT many people sit on market discussion and spam F5? Actually, yes. There are very few who contribute but many who lurk. Why do you think good ipo's sell out soooooo fast. And, I've tested this , specific trade information does get acted on quickly if it is posted here. Very quickly, it doesn't even require more than 5 people to read it either. Around here, people really will cut your throat... and bill your widow for the knife's depreciated value. Hell you don't even need to post here. Sometimes something as simple as some misinformation in local can send the markets into a tizzy for at least a few hours.. long enough for a mart mover to make a few 30 million or so. ....not that I would know anything about that
Tasko Pal Heron Corporation	Posted - 2008.04.20 07:03:00 - [29] I hear that buying low and selling high is a good idea. So I do that. So while we're on the theme, here's a couple of questions. What price is halfway between 10 and 20? And is 12 or 18 closer to it?
vanBuskirk Caldari	Posted - 2008.04.23 22:14:00 - [30] Within reason, velocity beats margin every time. (I think that the term "velocity" is being used correctly in technical terms here, but I'm no share dealing tech.) What does that mean? Let's take a concrete example. You have 10 million isk, buy 100 widgets at 100k each, sell them within a week for 200k. You've made 100% Profit! Wow! You have made 10 million isk. Let's try that again. You have 10 million isk. You make the same buy, but sell them at 120k - less percentage. However, it's only taken a day, and you now have 12 million. Make the same buy again, but this time buy 120 widgets - sell them at the same margin - make another 2.4 million isk. You now have 14.4 million isk. Do it again, rinse and repeat. Do the maths. After 4 days of this, you have 20.736 million isk, more than in the first case - and you still have 3 more days to make some more. This assumes a lot of things (unlimited supply and demand for a start) but it will do as a first approximation. This runs into the buffers if you are selling at ridiculously low margins - because dealing costs eat into profit. But, as I said in the first sentence, in slightly different words - within reason, fast turnover beats margin every time. Volume? That's simply a matter of how much you have to put in, except that if you are selling in the middle of nowhere don't expect fast trade. How did I find all this out? Well, paying the mortgage in RL depends on it. ---------------------------------------------- "Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent."

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