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Uncle Mo
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Posted - 2008.05.06 07:59:00 -
[1]
Anyone have any thoughts as to why? The price of ships and minerals seems to be increasing slightly. An educated guess....anyone? I have noticed that the illegal ISK selling sites have dropped considerably over the past few months (yes, I check these on a periodic basis because is does influence the econemy), presumably to compete with legitimate GTC sales or, they simply want to liquidate because CCP is coming down that hard on ISK real money traders. It is a gradual decline, but the days of 400m ISK 90day cards are over.
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Kwint Sommer
Lothian Quay Industries
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Posted - 2008.05.06 09:09:00 -
[2]
Edited by: Kwint Sommer on 06/05/2008 09:09:42
As you noted, CCP *****ing down on RMT's will make for a substantial decrease in demand as they run their accounts almost exclusively using ISK purchased GTC's. However, I don't think we're anywhere near removing them from the equation, they are still a potent force even if their ranks have been thinned a bit lately.
I would attribute more of the drop to the downfall of GTC resellers. When a cheap GTC came up they snatched it up immediately and relisted it for a much higher price. Now those cheap GTC's manage to hang on the market for a bit and in so doing help to drag the prices of the rest down. We've gone from a market that was once managed by a couple of highly competitive tycoons to a market brimming with guys too lazy to earn their own ISK. There are still sharks out there snatching up especially cheap GTC's for themselves but overall the market is now much less strictly managed and prices are correspondingly lower.
EDIT: Why is cr@ck censored? 
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.05.06 11:20:00 -
[3]
Excess inventory would be my guess. |
Haakkon
Gallente
GoonFleet
GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2008.05.06 12:20:00 -
[4]
Edited by: Haakkon on 06/05/2008 12:24:28
As mentioned previously, the primary reasons GTC prices are falling are
- GTC sales are less controlled
- the primary motivation for selling used to be extreme profit and the few who sold would do their best to raise GTC sale prices as high as possible, now they are primarily sold because of the effort differential between earning isk in-game and working at a moderately well-paying job. This results in many more sellers than there were previously all competing with each other.
- ISK sellers are being put out of business
- GTC sales are safer and as the isk-seller market dries up, those people wishing to spend real money on isk turn to GTC sales, increasing supply greatly
- Unlike other MMOs, Eve seems to be dominated by a somewhat older, more established player base.
- This means that in other games where demand for such GTC sales would be huge (as in game money would be easier to obtain), the Eve player base has limited playtime because of work and family, and it makes more economic sense to spend 1 hour working at a "real" job and time carding, than it does to spend 3 hours ratting in game.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.05.06 15:54:00 -
[5]
Thought about this and I think we're assuming the wrong reason for the isk sellers.
Because GTC are 'safer', isk sellers are resorting to lowering prices to maintain liquidity. This exerts downward pressure on the 'exchange rate' as it were of isk to dollars. Thus lowering the amount that GTC cost. |
Nyphur
Pillowsoft
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Posted - 2008.05.07 03:06:00 -
[6]
Its probably just a factor of the rate of decline on active accounts. It's the summer lull, an effect that happens every year when the sun starts shining and the flowers bloom and for a time outside is prettier than Eve. It's understandable that a lot of people are going to let their accounts lapse with a long skill training over the summer. I predicted this drop months ago and some time near the end of the summer I'm going to stock up on a years worth of game time codes for all my accounts.
Any bets on what the prices are come august? My money's on 300-320 for 90 day codes. They'll never go below 300 because of the psychological effect that causes 299 to feel like less than 300.
Eve-Tanking.com - We're sorry, something happened. |
Haakkon
Gallente
GoonFleet
GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2008.05.07 04:13:00 -
[7]
 Originally by: Nyphur
Its probably just a factor of the rate of decline on active accounts. It's the summer lull, an effect that happens every year when the sun starts shining and the flowers bloom and for a time outside is prettier than Eve. It's understandable that a lot of people are going to let their accounts lapse with a long skill training over the summer. I predicted this drop months ago and some time near the end of the summer I'm going to stock up on a years worth of game time codes for all my accounts.
Any bets on what the prices are come august? My money's on 300-320 for 90 day codes. They'll never go below 300 because of the psychological effect that causes 299 to feel like less than 300.
Though the majority of the player base is older, there's also a lot of players who are getting out of school and turning to video games to occupy themselves in the lull...
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Nyphur
Pillowsoft
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Posted - 2008.05.07 04:20:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Haakkon
Though the majority of the player base is older, there's also a lot of players who are getting out of school and turning to video games to occupy themselves in the lull...
Whether that's a significant factor or not I can't say but the summer lull is a documented effect that we get every year.
Eve-Tanking.com - We're sorry, something happened. |
Haakkon
Gallente
GoonFleet
GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2008.05.07 05:00:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Nyphur
Originally by: Haakkon
Though the majority of the player base is older, there's also a lot of players who are getting out of school and turning to video games to occupy themselves in the lull...
Whether that's a significant factor or not I can't say but the summer lull is a documented effect that we get every year.
I can't say I've ever actually studied the GTC rates too much. Though at least within Goonswarm, we're most active during the summer as a significant portion of our alliance are students. |
Nyphur
Pillowsoft
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Posted - 2008.05.07 05:18:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Haakkon
Originally by: Nyphur
Originally by: Haakkon
Though the majority of the player base is older, there's also a lot of players who are getting out of school and turning to video games to occupy themselves in the lull...
Whether that's a significant factor or not I can't say but the summer lull is a documented effect that we get every year.
I can't say I've ever actually studied the GTC rates too much. Though at least within Goonswarm, we're most active during the summer as a significant portion of our alliance are students.
You mean nerds :)
Eve-Tanking.com - We're sorry, something happened. |
Fivel Ve
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Posted - 2008.05.07 11:51:00 -
[11]
Edited by: Fivel Ve on 07/05/2008 11:52:43
I think the major contributing factor is that summer is coming. I am for sure going to put some accounts to rest as I'll be going on vacation. Hence I am not buying any codes right now. I am sure that other people will be doing same thing.
Also CCP has put an link on login page (now gone) that leads to an essay on how buying ISK from farmers is bad and buying ISK from other players using codes is a superior system. I am sure some a lot of people clicked on that and if they didn't know that they can make ISK with codes now they do. Amount of spam has also decreased ingame so less people are temptedto buy from farmers. But the major factor i think is that summer is coming, and while people are pvping right now and EVE's hardcore players will probably play all summer through, majority of EVE just isn't going to be playing very actively to buy up the codes.
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Haakkon
Gallente
GoonFleet
GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2008.05.07 12:02:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Nyphur
Originally by: Haakkon
Originally by: Nyphur
Originally by: Haakkon
Though the majority of the player base is older, there's also a lot of players who are getting out of school and turning to video games to occupy themselves in the lull...
Whether that's a significant factor or not I can't say but the summer lull is a documented effect that we get every year.
I can't say I've ever actually studied the GTC rates too much. Though at least within Goonswarm, we're most active during the summer as a significant portion of our alliance are students.
You mean nerds :)
Haha, it's so true! We're such a nerdy group of people. Then again, you kinda have to be to play a game like this.
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SonOfAGhost
Minmatar
Minmatar Munitions and Tactical Assets Repository
Zzz
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Posted - 2008.05.07 12:27:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
Because GTC are 'safer', isk sellers are resorting to lowering prices to maintain liquidity. This exerts downward pressure on the 'exchange rate' as it were of isk to dollars. Thus lowering the amount that GTC cost.
Actually, you've got it backwards. Farmers dropping prices means more isk per dollar. For those looking to convert dollars to isk, the lower GTCs sell for on the forum, the more of them will be tempted to go the farmer route. Those lacking morals will weigh the risk of getting caught vs how much isk they'll get per dollar spent.
Lower isk prices for GTCs may be in the interest of those that want to play for free. However, the more a GTC sells for legally, the more farmers have to drop their prices to try to compete.
Which means lower GTC prices are good for farmers  |
Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.05.07 13:06:00 -
[14]
Originally by: SonOfAGhost
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
Because GTC are 'safer', isk sellers are resorting to lowering prices to maintain liquidity. This exerts downward pressure on the 'exchange rate' as it were of isk to dollars. Thus lowering the amount that GTC cost.
Actually, you've got it backwards. Farmers dropping prices means more isk per dollar. For those looking to convert dollars to isk, the lower GTCs sell for on the forum, the more of them will be tempted to go the farmer route. Those lacking morals will weigh the risk of getting caught vs how much isk they'll get per dollar spent.
Lower isk prices for GTCs may be in the interest of those that want to play for free. However, the more a GTC sells for legally, the more farmers have to drop their prices to try to compete.
Which means lower GTC prices are good for farmers
Well yeah that's sorta what I was getting at. ISk farmers are lowering the prices per isk block as it were. Meaning they are given out more isk per dollar than they had been before to lure people from going the GTC route. |
Nyphur
Pillowsoft
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Posted - 2008.05.07 16:40:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
Well yeah that's sorta what I was getting at. ISk farmers are lowering the prices per isk block as it were. Meaning they are given out more isk per dollar than they had been before to lure people from going the GTC route.
But that would lower supply, which in turn would increase prices rather than decrease them. I doubt this has anything to do with farmers and isk seller prices, it's far more likely that some players are going outside in my opinion.
Eve-Tanking.com - We're sorry, something happened. |
Toria Nynys
Minmatar
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Posted - 2008.05.07 19:50:00 -
[16]
I blame t2 invention.
With t2 invention becoming less and less profitable datacore alts aren't all that needed. So more and more of those accounts are hibernating months on end while piling up RP.
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Dariah Stardweller
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Posted - 2008.05.07 21:10:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Haakkon
Haha, it's so true! We're such a nerdy group of people. Then again, you kinda have to be to play a game like this.
Yuppers, not your average Xbox 360 type that plays these kind of games.
Eeeewwww! I agreed with a Goon! *barf
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Wieting Foyu
Azteca Transportation Unlimited
Gunboat Diplomacy
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Posted - 2008.05.08 04:28:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Nyphur
Its probably just a factor of the rate of decline on active accounts. It's the summer lull, an effect that happens every year when the sun starts shining and the flowers bloom and for a time outside is prettier than Eve. It's understandable that a lot of people are going to let their accounts lapse with a long skill training over the summer. I predicted this drop months ago and some time near the end of the summer I'm going to stock up on a years worth of game time codes for all my accounts.
Any bets on what the prices are come august? My money's on 300-320 for 90 day codes. They'll never go below 300 because of the psychological effect that causes 299 to feel like less than 300.
Well last year around this time I bought my first 90d (and never paid real money since) for 280m, so I see it dropping below 300 before sept.
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Uncle Mo
Raddick Explorations
Friend or Enemy
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Posted - 2008.05.09 07:32:00 -
[19]
Yup, seening some go for 300mil now.
---------------------------------------------
Official US ambassador to the UK.
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Palava
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Posted - 2008.05.09 07:46:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Nyphur
some players are going outside in my opinion.
outside? which outside are you talking of? the thing behind my window? one can actually GO there?!
*scnr*
or is there another truth in the sentence I cannot see...
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quickshot89
Caldari
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Posted - 2008.05.10 12:10:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Dariah Stardweller
Originally by: Haakkon
Haha, it's so true! We're such a nerdy group of people. Then again, you kinda have to be to play a game like this.
Yuppers, not your average Xbox 360 type that plays these kind of games.
Eeeewwww! I agreed with a Goon! *barf
oi, i play on both my 360 and eve, eve helps to pass the time while waiting for a new game of halo to start =P
300mil for a 90 day time card, my mates are gonna get ****ed when they bought the things for 360mil =P thats like 2 drakes they could of had +P
and yeah, the goon is right, you are abit of a nerd playing a space MMO
(the only thing a goon is correct about  )
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Roemy Schneider
BINFORD
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Posted - 2008.05.10 14:33:00 -
[22]
the weak dollar.
the GTC concept brings eve closer to rl-economy than other games and those show correlations already
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putting the gist back into logistics |
Cergorach
Amarr
The Helix Foundation
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Posted - 2008.05.10 15:42:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Roemy Schneider
the weak dollar.
the GTC concept brings eve closer to rl-economy than other games and those show correlations already
You might very well be right. Most gamers will have a budget that they use for games, be that buying games or items for use in game. Due to the low dollar europeans can buy more GTCs then most US (and now uk) based gamers. Supply increases.
Some have stated that demand decreased due to datacore farming becomming less popular, while that might be true, I think the bigger cause is a decrease in alt growth. At one time the current player base will be saturated with the amount of accounts they'll have active at a time. The newer player base might want to have some additional accounts, but they'll just not have the isk for it. As already stated in the MD forum, there are a lot of players that have more isk then they know what to do with. So it wouldn't be far fetched that when they have idle money laying around, they'll purchase something with it. When such folk see that the 90 day GTC is relatively cheap they might buy a couple (maybe enough for the next year), such accounts don't need GTCs for a long time. Thus you might have a significant decrease in demand.
Let me give you an example:
I've had two accounts for a while now and have recently been making enough isk to buy GTCs for isk. That was around 150M isk for each 30 day GTC, today I activated 7 trial accounts i started a month ago (7x 135M isk). Due to the Wingman promotion I don't have to buy GTCs for 14 weeks for my main, and for 12 weeks for my 7 new accounts (30 (GTC)+14 (promotion)+40 (long skill)), so that only leaves one account I have to supply GTCs for. Having already 9 accounts, I might activate another 7, but beyond that I don't really see the need for anymore accounts. Given my current isk income, I'll probably train two characters (R&D) on each account and buy the third (combat). At a certain point there's only so much you can spend your isk on, and by that time 300M isk for a 90 day GTC isn't really that much, I would probably buy a year (maybe more) in advance, just to get rid of that headache. I'm pretty certain that a lot of players have reached that point already. You can only fit 10 characters in your (mining) gang.
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Nyphur
Pillowsoft
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Posted - 2008.05.10 16:20:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Roemy Schneider
the weak dollar.
the GTC concept brings eve closer to rl-economy than other games and those show correlations already
The dollar's been weak for a long time, though. The question is if you can correlate changes in the dollar's value with the downward trend in game time code prices in isk.
Eve-Tanking.com - We're sorry, something happened. |
Dariah Stardweller
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Posted - 2008.05.10 19:14:00 -
[25]
I never got it, the GTC trading, even at 400m for a 90 day card, seems like quite a lot of money for a small amount of isk.
It's not that 400m isk will buy you that much stuff.
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Ortos
Abyssus Incendia
THORN Alliance
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Posted - 2008.05.10 19:18:00 -
[26]
Edited by: Ortos on 10/05/2008 19:25:58
The stupidity of sellers is the reason GTC prices are going down.
Oh, and to poster above: When CCP decides your newest mission ship is to die because of a bug. Thats when you sell a GTC to get back.
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