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Hexxx
Sebiestor Tribe Minmatar Republic
8
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Posted - 2012.03.16 18:27:00 -
[1] - Quote
"...As the increased money supply wasnGÇÿt increasing trade to the same degree, the result was a lower velocity of money. An important factor in this was probably the absence of a trusted banking sector, which could offer interest and distribute the unused ISK to those in need of funds..." - CCP Recurve, Dev Blog: Price Indices GÇô February 2012 http://community.eveonline.com/devblog.asp?a=blog&nbid=9115
Note: I'll be discussing this on the EVE Morning Report Weekend show, if you'd like me to touch on counter-arguments, please add them to the thread.
I think I can explain what this means, but I need to explain something first.
During the height of EBANK, there was a phenomenon I noticed that freaked me out. A handful of people know about this, they can confirm it if they'd like to. The phenomenon was that for several months we were tracking deposits significantly exceeding withdraw requests...so much so in fact that they covered interest payments. In theory, so long as people had confidence in the Bank, deposits would always cover interest payments in perpetuity. The more we grew, the more true this became.
Most of us would say this the perfect setup for a Ponzi (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme). I would agree with that assessment, that's why it scared the hell out of me when I realized what was happening. But I also began to form a theory on the money supply.
So, the 2.4 Trillion ISK question is; why would CCP be interested in a trusted banking sector?
It's all about the money supply. In a player-run bank, people deposit their funds in the bank and draw them out when needed. If a bank ran long enough, a certain percentage of it's funds in any given year are "freed" due to characters leaving and never returning but not being bio-massed. Normally this would simply add to the money supply, but in a EVE Bank this would drive down the fractional reserve requirement (Any Bank in EVE MUST have an ability to draw truly massive amounts of ISK in the event of a run. Runs are not an "if", they are a "when".) and ultimately route a portion of "dormant money" to active players. The Bank would actually be presenting an even larger money supply that what money is available on paper.
A bank operating in such a way would increase the velocity of the money supply and act against deflationary pressures on the major Price Indexes. I'm leaving out some details here, but that's the gist of it.
If CCP allows for API enabled money transfers, it would be an order of magnitude easier to build banks. As it is, the only scalable solution is a "crowd-sourced distributed withdraw" solution. It's sufficiently complex that no one has built it. If CCP is interested in more player Banks, we need to be able to do character to character money transfers through some kind of API. |

Liberty Eternal
Taggart Transdimensional Virtue of Selfishness
26
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Posted - 2012.03.16 18:45:00 -
[2] - Quote
From the blog [my bold]
"Money supply increases thirteenfold...
Consumer Price Index falls by 24%..."
Holy    
So, inflation has finally got back on the radar after so long stealthed up. I guess ignoring the problem didn't make it go away? And neither did pumping trillions of isk into an economy which only has a few hundred thousand players at most.
I totally agree that the issue here is trust. It's not the size of the money supply that matters, it's what you do with it - and pumping more and more money into the system will not ever act as a substitute for a trusted financial services sector. Until then the economy will continue to suffer hyper-constipation. |

Utemetsu
26
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Posted - 2012.03.16 19:08:00 -
[3] - Quote
Monster show incoming, I think. Eve Morning Report - Daily Economic News of New Eden www.evemorningreport.themumm.com "I almost pooped my pants." ~ Lord Jita
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Adunh Slavy
Ammatar Trade Syndicate
339
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Posted - 2012.03.16 20:23:00 -
[4] - Quote
Need a way to deal with trust, or are you setting up a proposal for NPC run banks? |

Claire Voyant
99
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Posted - 2012.03.16 20:25:00 -
[5] - Quote
I think you are reading this wrong, or at least reading into it. In a RL economy people don't store their money under their beds, they put it in banks. Banks then lend it out, therefore the amount of money in the economy is a meaningful measure. But since in Eve we all keep our money under our mattresses (or if you prefer, the only trusted bank in Eve, the wallet which doesn't make loans) the quantity of money is pretty much meaningless and doesn't correlate to any measure of inflation. That is all he is saying.
If we all had to put our money in player banks, and if those banks had to lend out most of that money to stay in business, the price of everything would go wacko. Just please put this silly idea out of your head. We don't want your bank. |

MushroomMushroom
Consolidated Sprocket
1
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Posted - 2012.03.16 20:28:00 -
[6] - Quote
There is no way to create a trusted banking system that can both pay interest, and is truly safe, absent CCP being willing to insure deposits. What ever safeguards CCP might add to the game, they will still fallback on the trustworthiness and competence of the bankers.
On the more general economics level, the last thing the economy needs right now is the inflationary pressure that a fractional reserve banking system would create, particularly if CCP shifts drones towards bounties... more isk, less minerals. |

Darth Tickles
Northstar Cabal Fatal Ascension
81
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Posted - 2012.03.16 20:43:00 -
[7] - Quote
As claire wisely, as usual, put: he's describing the nature of the economy, not advocating the need for player run banks to save the game from inflation. |

Mara Villoso
Big Box
63
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Posted - 2012.03.16 20:43:00 -
[8] - Quote
Sentence preceding the one quoted in the OP:
"The velocity of money falls steeply and steadily from the start of the graph, January 2007, until late 2008. This is happening at a time when the money supply was growing. "
When did EBank run? Oh yes, between 2007 and mid-2009.
Funny. |

Hexxx
Sebiestor Tribe Minmatar Republic
8
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Posted - 2012.03.16 21:27:00 -
[9] - Quote
Claire Voyant wrote:I think you are reading this wrong, or at least reading into it. In a RL economy people don't store their money under their beds, they put it in banks. Banks then lend it out, therefore the amount of money in the economy is a meaningful measure. But since in Eve we all keep our money under our mattresses (or if you prefer, the only trusted bank in Eve, the wallet which doesn't make loans) the quantity of money is pretty much meaningless and doesn't correlate to any measure of inflation. That is all he is saying.
If we all had to put our money in player banks, and if those banks had to lend out most of that money to stay in business, the price of everything would go wacko. Just please put this silly idea out of your head. We don't want your bank.
I'm not in the banking business, I'm in the accounting business. I'll leave it to someone else to build Banks for now. Just wanted to be clear about that particular point. |

Hexxx
Sebiestor Tribe Minmatar Republic
8
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Posted - 2012.03.16 21:29:00 -
[10] - Quote
Mara Villoso wrote:Sentence preceding the one quoted in the OP:
"The velocity of money falls steeply and steadily from the start of the graph, January 2007, until late 2008. This is happening at a time when the money supply was growing. "
When did EBank run? Oh yes, between 2007 and mid-2009.
Funny.
I'm of a mind that causation and correlation are two different sorts of things. Personal opinion however.  |
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Hexxx
Sebiestor Tribe Minmatar Republic
8
|
Posted - 2012.03.16 21:33:00 -
[11] - Quote
Adunh Slavy wrote:Need a way to deal with trust, or are you setting up a proposal for NPC run banks?
I would never advocate an NPC Bank, I have never advocated an NPC Bank, and I'm entirely against the idea of NPC Banks.
Trust is a much more complex and nuanced topic. If someone tries to launch a Bank I'll probably talk about it more then, however I will say this; EVE is more about managing risk then managing trust.
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Adunh Slavy
Ammatar Trade Syndicate
339
|
Posted - 2012.03.16 21:39:00 -
[12] - Quote
Hexxx wrote: Trust is a much more complex and nuanced topic. If someone tries to launch a Bank I'll probably talk about it more then, however I will say this; EVE is more about managing risk then managing trust.
True enough, could be said for RL banking as well. |

Claire Voyant
100
|
Posted - 2012.03.16 23:00:00 -
[13] - Quote
Not exactly on topic, but I was thinking about my last point on how the absence of banking in Eve creates a disconnect between the money supply and inflation. The popular idea of the day is that incursions are creating inflation by generating excessive isk and the evidence can be seen in rising PLEX prices. I would argue that incursions are giving players a higher income so more players are able to afford PLEX to pay for their subscription and the higher demand is driving up PLEX prices. This is not the same as inflation.
Remember that every Eve player has to pay for their subscription one way or another (or quit the game) and increased PLEX demand is simply a result of players making an economic decision to switch from one form of payment to another. As an analogy, everyone has to eat. You can either buy food at the grocery store to prepare for yourself or eat out at a restaurant. As disposable income increases more people choose to eat out, driving up the price of restaurant meals. Meanwhile, the price of groceries could very well be falling. Is this inflationary?
Dr. E has been on his isk sink kick for a long time, warning the devs of the dangers of inflation in Eve. Meanwhile he has included the price of PLEX as a huge chunk of his consumer price index in a failed effort to hide the inevitable decline in prices. If inflation is too much money chasing too few goods, what we have in Eve is a money supply that can barely keep pace with the ever increasing stockpile of goods we have in our hangars. |

snake pies
Dreddit Test Alliance Please Ignore
2
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Posted - 2012.03.17 02:07:00 -
[14] - Quote
Isn't Iceland all about banking, why do we even need to talk about this, I'm sure CCP can call in some local experts. |

DoraTheExplora Taft
The Management.
8
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Posted - 2012.03.17 04:20:00 -
[15] - Quote
Well what we're getting into here really in terms of the creation of semi trustworthy banks is whether or not ccp is going to create more complicated tools for what have been up to this point completely voluntary and trust based transactions. Ultimately ccp is the only completely trustworthy auditor (at least if they aren't you're screwed anyway so don't worry about it). |

Jake Andarius
Andarius Trading Corp.
5
|
Posted - 2012.03.17 05:21:00 -
[16] - Quote
snake pies wrote:Isn't Iceland all about banking, why do we even need to talk about this, I'm sure CCP can call in some local experts.
= )
But in all seriousness, CCP has a very hands-off approach to the EVE economy, and I do not think they are, nor should be, interested in solving the problem of banking for the players. I am in complete agreement with Hexxx on that point. If banks are ever created in some sustainable form, it should be from player ingenuity. Andarius Trading Corp. |

Adunh Slavy
Ammatar Trade Syndicate
344
|
Posted - 2012.03.17 06:33:00 -
[17] - Quote
Jake Andarius wrote:snake pies wrote:Isn't Iceland all about banking, why do we even need to talk about this, I'm sure CCP can call in some local experts. = ) But in all seriousness, CCP has a very hands-off approach to the EVE economy, and I do not think they are, nor should be, interested in solving the problem of banking for the players. I am in complete agreement with Hexxx on that point. If banks are ever created in some sustainable form, it should be from player ingenuity.
But we need some tools, a functioning stock market, or bonds, loan contracts, something like that.
Having to rely on external tools and markets, although there are a couple, they don't have much wide spread use, they're not very visible, and in the land of constant scams there's a huge hurdle there as it is. |

Kouryusei
The Bitter Sea Trading Company
0
|
Posted - 2012.03.17 11:49:00 -
[18] - Quote
I've not played Eve in quite a long time (came back yesterday after a rather extensive hiatus following some real life stuff - think I need to give people some ISK!), but I do agree with the sentiment that we need in-game banks.
I'd be willing to talk with some respected players to bring this to fruition, and I'm willing to put a large sum of real-life money in escrow (or convert it directly in to a large quantity of PLEX and therefore ISK) to insure against losses (in return for equity of the overall business). Though, who could be trusted to deal with high -úX,XXX to low -úXXX,XXX of my money? I'd be looking for some real-life contracts in this regard, and a third-party escrow service between myself and the other party.
From a technical perspective, it's somewhat possible - though due to the lack of a transactional API, there's always going to be some level of manual intervention until it's dealt with. |

Tanya Powers
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
882
|
Posted - 2012.03.17 13:04:00 -
[19] - Quote
Well humanity thought they were the top chain food now for a few century, they were wrong.
They have the worst predator they could ever imagine that kills humans every day by millions: bank and their weapon is monetary system.
Their technique is now better than first vague in 1930's, much better because since then they don't really need world scale conflicts to kill entire populations, even thou they still do it, but this time a little bit everywhere. You know it, you see it, you probably have friends or family already victim of those but you do nothing afraid that your turn is next.
Your money has no other value than the one they decide it worth, you can't do whatever and you will not do whatsoever because your worthless clueless money junky leadership is dependant of a predator that put them in place and depend like a junky depends on his daily ****** dose.
Another failure: Madoff everyone?
And you want to come feck me in the game with that crap again? - go die
No need for in game banks, never. |

Dane Eham
Shiva Furnace
7
|
Posted - 2012.03.17 13:11:00 -
[20] - Quote
Most people wouldn't use a bank in the real world if they had an Eve wallet. I suspect most money in banks earns no or virtually no interest and is only there for security and the convenience of transfers. Eve banks are actually worse than keeping the money in your own wallet on both those counts.
Maybe the Eve economy needs lending but the average player has no desire or need for a bank. |
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Hexxx
Sebiestor Tribe Minmatar Republic
9
|
Posted - 2012.03.17 13:16:00 -
[21] - Quote
Dane Eham wrote:Most people wouldn't use a bank in the real world if they had an Eve wallet. I suspect most money in banks earns no or virtually no interest and is only there for security and the convenience of transfers. Eve banks are actually worse than keeping the money in your own wallet on both those counts.
Maybe the Eve economy needs lending but the average player has no desire or need for a bank.
We had hundreds of billions in ISK in accounts earning 1.5% per month. People are crazy like that. We had a few dozen billion in accounts with 0% rates. These were sweep accounts where nobody moved deposits into checking. This was great for lending, but lending is only one of the three major revenue streams a Bank could pursue in EVE and while it is one of the largest and most scalable - it isn't necessary. This was with only 6,000 players, but our growth was increasing month over month. These are facts.
If someone was able to nail down accounting and take advantage of the fungible nature of all goods in EVE, then mass commodities trading would reign supreme. |

Hexxx
Sebiestor Tribe Minmatar Republic
9
|
Posted - 2012.03.17 13:17:00 -
[22] - Quote
Tanya Powers wrote:Well humanity thought they were the top chain food now for a few century, they were wrong.
They have the worst predator they could ever imagine that kills humans every day by millions: bank and their weapon is monetary system.
Their technique is now better than first vague in 1930's, much better because since then they don't really need world scale conflicts to kill entire populations, even thou they still do it, but this time a little bit everywhere. You know it, you see it, you probably have friends or family already victim of those but you do nothing afraid that your turn is next.
Your money has no other value than the one they decide it worth, you can't do whatever and you will not do whatsoever because your worthless clueless money junky leadership is dependant of a predator that put them in place and depend like a junky depends on his daily ****** dose.
Another failure: Madoff everyone?
And you want to come feck me in the game with that crap again? - go die
No need for in game banks, never.
That's nice.  |

Hexxx
Sebiestor Tribe Minmatar Republic
9
|
Posted - 2012.03.17 13:20:00 -
[23] - Quote
DoraTheExplora Taft wrote:Well what we're getting into here really in terms of the creation of semi trustworthy banks is whether or not ccp is going to create more complicated tools for what have been up to this point completely voluntary and trust based transactions. Ultimately ccp is the only completely trustworthy auditor (at least if they aren't you're screwed anyway so don't worry about it).
Do not confuse trust and risk.
Auditing is a 3rd party detective control against fraud - it will only detect fraud after fraud has happened. Auditing is absolutely useless in PREVENTING fraud. |

Jake Andarius
Andarius Trading Corp.
5
|
Posted - 2012.03.17 15:08:00 -
[24] - Quote
Adunh Slavy wrote:But we need some tools, a functioning stock market, or bonds, loan contracts, something like that.
Having to rely on external tools and markets, although there are a couple, they don't have much wide spread use, they're not very visible, and in the land of constant scams there's a huge hurdle there as it is.
I do agree that if there is ever to be a serious stock market in EVE, it can only come about if CCP provides an ingame market much like the current market for commodities. But if we are strictly talking about banking here, then I see less need for CCP to create tools. We currently have all the basic tools we need for banks--an easy money transfer system, customizabile corp wallets, and retrievable APIs. The missing ingredient is that the players have not developed a banking system that players can trust.
Quote:Most people wouldn't use a bank in the real world if they had an Eve wallet. I suspect most money in banks earns no or virtually no interest and is only there for security and the convenience of transfers. Eve banks are actually worse than keeping the money in your own wallet on both those counts.
Maybe the Eve economy needs lending but the average player has no desire or need for a bank. This statement is factually false. Hexxx is right--EBank and several other banking ventures have been enormously popular. As a bit of personal testimony, I run a private bank for friends whenever they are actively playing EVE. Also, take a look at the bond activity on the MD forums. People are very attracted to the idea of their money increasing steadily over time with zero effort from them. Hypothetically, if there were a banking system in EVE that players could implicitly trust, then players would flood it with money because there is such a high demand for banks.
Quote:Auditing is a 3rd party detective control against fraud - it will only detect fraud after fraud has happened. Auditing is absolutely useless in PREVENTING fraud.
I disagree a bit here. Auditing can determine the financial competence of the player through analyzing past transactions (i.e. trade, investment, etc.), and it can help guide a more personal questionnaire-driven inspection of the player's actions. In reading through bond offers, it seems apparent that a great deal of scammers can not hold up to the weight of an informal and formal audit of their wallet history, because they either lack wallet history to substantiate their claims or the financial competence to make reasonable claims about what they plan to do with the ISK. You are entirely right, however, that there are a few financially competent, yet corrupt, players who are unhindered by audits. But I think you can use an auditing process to weed out a great majority of scammers.
I think your underlying sentiment was that auditing is not a foolproof method to verifying whether or not someone is a scammer. In that sense, I completely agree with you.
Quote:Well humanity thought they were the top chain food now for a few century, they were wrong.
They have the worst predator they could ever imagine that kills humans every day by millions: bank and their weapon is monetary system. I was more entertained reading this post than I probably will be doing anything else today. Andarius Trading Corp. |

Tinu Moorhsum
Royal Scientific Research Enterprise
79
|
Posted - 2012.03.17 15:33:00 -
[25] - Quote
I think having a savings and loan bank is an interesting idea in principle but there are two major problems:
1) you can't do anything about it if someone doesn't pay back their loan. (and if someone can put up the collateral they usually don't need the loan).
2) nobody in this game can be trusted to run it.
I think before any theory crafting about a banking system can even begin, these two problems need water-tight solutions. Otherwise, the whole discussion is pointless.
T- |

Jake Andarius
Andarius Trading Corp.
5
|
Posted - 2012.03.17 15:40:00 -
[26] - Quote
Tinu Moorhsum wrote:I think having a savings and loan bank is an interesting idea in principle but there are two major problems:
1) you can't do anything about it if someone doesn't pay back their loan. (and if someone can put up the collateral they usually don't need the loan).
2) nobody in this game can be trusted to run it.
I think before any theory crafting about a banking system can even begin, these two problems need water-tight solutions. Otherwise, the whole discussion is pointless.
I completely agree with your two points, but I do not believe your conclusion follows from them. I think these two problems need water-tight solutions, so before we create any bank we should only concern ourselves with theory crafting about a banking system. This whole discussion is exactly the intellectual environment that creates solutions to those problems.
/Philosophy B.A. >_< Andarius Trading Corp. |

Callean Drevus
Icosahedron Crafts and Shipping Silent Infinity
114
|
Posted - 2012.03.17 15:49:00 -
[27] - Quote
1) That is what auditing is meant to prevent a bit, isn't it?
2) I can. In terms of not being interested in running off with the money anyway. Trusting me to actively put lots of time in it for withdrawals and deposits is another thing however.
That said, EMK might eventually include a (micro-)loan system, possibly even a full fledged bank if everything continues well. Developer/Creator of EVE Marketeer
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Broken Thoughts
ZERO T0LERANCE RAZOR Alliance
11
|
Posted - 2012.03.17 15:51:00 -
[28] - Quote
how would you like the thought of an automated loan system that automatically withdraws money from your wallet after the arranged time? would that be bad for the sandbox? |

Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
191
|
Posted - 2012.03.17 16:00:00 -
[29] - Quote
Broken Thoughts wrote:how would you like the thought of an automated loan system that automatically withdraws money from your wallet after the arranged time? would that be bad for the sandbox?
I borrow a zillion isk, move it to another alt and biomass the borrower alt. Good sized sandbox breaker right there. But it's a lot more fun, if the automated system withdraws money from my wallet whether I have it or not. It'd be a race to see who's first to break wallet functionality with an out of bounds negative amount. |

Broken Thoughts
ZERO T0LERANCE RAZOR Alliance
11
|
Posted - 2012.03.17 16:09:00 -
[30] - Quote
Tasko Pal wrote:Broken Thoughts wrote:how would you like the thought of an automated loan system that automatically withdraws money from your wallet after the arranged time? would that be bad for the sandbox? I borrow a zillion isk, move it to another alt and biomass the borrower alt. Good sized sandbox breaker right there. But it's a lot more fun, if the automated system withdraws money from my wallet whether I have it or not. It'd be a race to see who's first to break wallet functionality with an out of bounds negative amount.
of course it would withdraw money wether you have it or not, biomassing characters is.. well .. another thing |
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