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Lee Liste
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Posted - 2008.07.31 22:53:00 -
[1]
I am nothing short of a wannabe trader and I think I have made my first mistake. If that is the case, I intend to learn from it. I was browsing the markets in Jita 4-4 for something with a good flow of buyers but not with a lot of items on the market. My plan was to buy out all the stock and mark it up quite a bit making a profit by reselling it to speedy mission-runners, pvpers etc who didn't care too much about a 300% markup of something that's not expensive to begin with. I looked around and found an item with on average 5000 units sold per day and figured that if I bought the entire stock (around 3000 units) and put it up for sale again I should be able to make some money. I looked carefully so that the sellers of it weren't constantly updating or waging 0.01-wars with eachother. It seemed the market for this item was pretty calm and decided I should try it. And so I bought items for 500,000 ISK or so, marking them up and putting them back out there at four times the price. Let's say the items cost 100 ISK to begin with and I put them back there at 400 ISK.
Three hours have passed and I have yet to sell a single unit. Now since, according to the graph, this item sells about 5000 units per day, I am - or rather was - slightly confused. Sure, some would get turned away by the much higher price, but I figured most or at least a few wouldn't notice or care if they did.
So, my confusion was a fact. Now I'm thinking that possibly the "5000 units sold per day" according to the price history tab is what got me confused. I thought this would mean that 5000 items would be sold to second-hand buyers (i.e. not the guys buying low and selling high) - when in fact I'm starting to guess that this number also includes the number of units sold to those with a standing buy order at 70 per unit. Do you follow me? If not:
http://potentia.org/~lillis/marketgraph.jpg
What I'm saying is that it would seem that the number of units sold according to graph (A) counts not only the amount sold from resellers to item users (B) but also the amount sold from mission-runners to resellers (C).
Am I correct in this, and is this the reason (coupled with the drastic increase in price) I haven't sold a single unit yet? Is there something I'm missing? I'd be grateful for any tips or info on how the graph works.
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Nido Gentz
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Posted - 2008.07.31 23:21:00 -
[2]
Yes, you are correct. The volume indicator on the market includes both people buying from sell orders as well as people selling to buy orders. One thing I do if I want to get an approximate idea for how many are people buying and people selling is use the average price for the day. If the average is closer to the days high, more people are buying, if the average is closer to the low for the day (or the buy orders people have up), then I assume that most of the volume is people selling to buy orders.
Hopefully that made some sense.
Take a look at the item you were attempting to manipulate and see if you can glean anything from the average prices. I'd be curious to hear back on what it tells you.
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Lee Liste
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Posted - 2008.07.31 23:35:00 -
[3]
That's a really good tip, thanks!
However, in this example the median and average are hitting the top of the donchian channel, which is just about what the highest current buy order is on. Confusing? :)
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Sicil Fioet
Minmatar
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Posted - 2008.08.01 01:01:00 -
[4]
All I see is that the channel never goes over 70 isk meaning no one buy this crap whatever it is for more than 70 isk a piece. So you made a mistake here, but did a smart thing at the same time that you first attempted this kind of market manipulation with an item that isn't worth much.
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Nido Gentz
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Posted - 2008.08.01 01:13:00 -
[5]
What Sicil said.
Since the donchian channel never goes above ~70 ISK, you'll never sell your product for any more than that.
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Khrillian
Minmatar
Sebiestor tribe
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Posted - 2008.08.01 01:24:00 -
[6]
Looking at that graph, I'd guess you tried to manipulate some kind of ammo. Like you said, the mean median and donchian channel all sit on the price of the highest buy order. This means the 5000 each day is probably going to the buy order. He's probably reprocessing it instead of selling it, so you aren't going to have too much luck manipulating it.
Also, 5000 selling per day means 5000 selling per day GIVEN a price of 70, not given any price. Some items have a higher price elasticity of demand than others.
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Pax Empyrean
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Posted - 2008.08.01 01:38:00 -
[7]
Yeah, you just learned that markets are surprisingly resistant to manipulation. You can pull it off, but it's not easy and it never lasts for long. You were smart to pick an item that doesn't cost much to start with, though. The last thing you want is people putting up buy orders to undercut you.
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Ricdics
Corporate Placement Holding
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Posted - 2008.08.01 02:31:00 -
[8]
Use the other tab (forget what it's called) and it will show you the daily highs and lows. You will find on most days the high is at 80 therefore showing you the makeup of buy/sell orders. You can't always get it 100% right but you can usually get a pretty good indication.
You made a fairly normal error, one I have done plenty of times. The only way is up from this point  |
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