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Salvo Brunel
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Posted - 2008.08.07 12:09:00 -
[1]
One of the products I sell is an item dropped by NPC's. The items were previously rare and consequently an expensive, niche item. Recently the supply of this item has increased significantly and prices are now free-falling. In some markets they are one fifth of the price two months ago. I think they might end up at one twentieth of the old price. My stock of these items is small, so this represents the loss of a profitable opportunity to me, rather than an actual loss.
Even though the price is falling, I don't think the quantity demanded will change any time soon, as many players don't use these items.
My questions are:
1. Are my predictions excessive? Is a price fall by a factor of 20 really likely?
2. Do people think there will be a 'j curve' effect? (Supply increases, no change in demand in short-tun therefore a big fall in price, slow increase in demand, therefore price recovers somewhat). If so over what time period?
3. Are there any tactics that one can use to manage sales when prices are falling fast.
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mr bighelmet
EnTech
Atrum Tempestas Foedus
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Posted - 2008.08.07 13:22:00 -
[2]
IT's kind of hard to say exactly but..
If it's an item that mission runner get and there is little demend to it then the price limit is the reprocess results.
There are many nice items that have over supply from mission running and there price is the reprocess price.
If i post something smart it represent my corp and alliance all other posts are my feeling/ideas only and do not represnt the rest |
Pax Empyrean
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Posted - 2008.08.07 14:01:00 -
[3]
Not everybody's reprocess price is the same, though. If your reprocess returns are at less than 100% and you're around Jita, we might be able to do business and both make some extra money. Send me an eve-mail in game if you're interested.
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Khalina Drakona
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Posted - 2008.08.07 19:10:00 -
[4]
If it's an item that misson runners (as stated) or even 0.0 ratters can get the price "should" drive down until something upsets those players ability to generate the item. I know in my area, many of the NPC mods are freefalling in price (or at least it seems like it) because the nearest 0.0 space has been peaceful for close to 6 months now. Cue up massive influxes of npc mods from there not to mention the ever growing high sec population of mission runners.
As far as tactics go, check surrounding regions that may be less populated thus have a less robust (and slower to adjust) market.
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Ms Andrist
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Posted - 2008.08.08 01:23:00 -
[5]
I would be forced to examine the exact source of the supply. If it's from ToS-Violating-farmers involved in RMT, a la Implants, the source is incessantly flowing into the market at an 'abnormal' rate, possibly faster than their consumption. If that's the case, the only way for the market to readjust is the culling of illegal farmer populations. Or is it the result of a new feature? If so then I wouldn't expect prices to rise much. Or perhaps an enterprising group has found a better way to harvest the item. Either way, others have stepped up to provide more competition. In my limited experience niches don't usually last long term. Someone will figure it out and from there competition will only grow geometrically.
1.) don't know, anything is possible. It depends on why there is more competition.
2.) If it really is a niche item I wouldn't expect an explosion in demand.
3.) sell sell sell. If your worried about a huge crash in prices get out while its not too expensive.
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