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Witcher
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Posted - 2008.09.04 10:32:00 -
[1]
Edited by: Witcher on 04/09/2008 10:35:32 Edited by: Witcher on 04/09/2008 10:34:52 I was looking at forums recently and came up with an idea how it will be possible to estimate roughly what is the true number of active players, who activelly contribute ot the game.
For that calculation we would need to make several assumptions: 1) Player who activelly contributes to the game also activelly posts on forums. Which seems to be a reasonable assumption, because active players enjoy sharing new ideas and listen to other players
2) We would need to account for the fact that certain proportion of players is very new and does not post very much on forums at all. We would assume that we that those players do not have significant impact on the calculation. This assumption is reasonable in my view because according to CCP the growth of subscription is relatievlly slow
Now lets look at the numbers:
As of this post there were total of 785,647 posts
if we devide this figure by official 200,000 subscribers, then we get 3.9 posts per subscribers, which does not seem to be reasonable as the figure is very small. Lets sensitize average posts per subscriber on the number of official subscribers:
subscribers: 200k | 180k | 160k | 140k | 120k | 100k | 80k | 60k | 40k | 20k
av.posts: 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 9.8 | 13 | 19.6 | 39.3
I would say that out of all those figures, number 39.3 seems to be the most reasonable, as this is what an average players will post through his lifetime.
How does this match with other numbers? Number of active players online fluctuates from 30-40k. I would say that it goes in line with this calculation because, out of those 30-40k for sure certain unknown proportion is alts and certain unknown proportion is just chineese farmers. By all means I do not intend to descriminate against our chineese farming friends, however for the purposes of this caluculation we cannot include them in our base of active players, who activelly contribute to gaming experience.
Lets discuss ?
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Malcanis
RuffRyders Axiom Empire
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Posted - 2008.09.04 10:37:00 -
[2]
Edited by: Malcanis on 04/09/2008 10:37:35 Only a small minority of eve players bother with the forums.
For some reason.
PS Also your maths implicitly assume that all subscribers are playing 23/7
CONCORD provide consequences, not safety; only you can do that. |
Jastra
Gallente Black Thorne Corporation
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Posted - 2008.09.04 10:38:00 -
[3]
I know very few people who actually post on the forums here
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Cygnus Zhada
Amarr Reckless Corsairs
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Posted - 2008.09.04 10:39:00 -
[4]
Edited by: Cygnus Zhada on 04/09/2008 10:38:59 A lot of people solo in MMO's, don't read forums, can't be bothered to interact or do teamwork. Same with guilds/corps, people just can't be bothered to register or the guild/corp forums and interact. Only if pressed (ie, it's profitable) will people actually interact.
Luckily some people are different, that's the thing you run into. That and alts ofcourse.
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Witcher
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Posted - 2008.09.04 10:40:00 -
[5]
my maths assumes that everything is averaged out,
for example we have Chribba who plays 23/7 and posts 23/7 with insane number of posts, on the other hand we have Mr.CarebearX who does not play 23/7 and does not post 23/7 they average each other out.
All im trying to say here is that, if there were genuinly 200,000 subscribers who activelly play and contribute to the game we would have so much more posts
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Mark Interiis
Gallente Disorder.
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Posted - 2008.09.04 10:41:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Witcher Edited by: Witcher on 04/09/2008 10:35:32 For that calculation we would need to make several assumptions: 1) Player who activelly contributes to the game also activelly posts on forums.
This is where you went wrong
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Stormwind Bloodfeather
Minmatar Sogdian Traders Inc
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Posted - 2008.09.04 10:41:00 -
[7]
doesn't really work, you have to consider time zones, countries etc. EVE is a world spanning game. Played by people everywhere. You can figure that in a 24 hour period you will have 50-60 thousand players or more logging on and off to play in their "optimal" play times around the world. The average server load is between 25-32k players online (all combined). Factor in time... thats a lot of players.
least thats how I figure it roughly. You also have to consider that not all "subscribers" are actually playing the game. I have a friend with three accounts. two he only skill trains on while playing the other. my g/f and I have 4 accounts between us, obviously we could run all 4 at the same time but even with three computers (2 gaming setups) I prefer to concentrate on one thing at a time... so they generally stay logged off, or if on, are minimized while my main "used" account is doing whatever i'm doing atm.
So that is 4 accounts, 2 of which are frequently used and 2 which are not. factor in that I am a photophobe and do web-design in my spare time from my home (self employed) means I can play eve for 12 hours a day if I want.
Storm
In EVE, your only friend is your ship and it's weapons. All others are the enemy! |
Witcher
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Posted - 2008.09.04 10:42:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Cygnus Zhada Edited by: Cygnus Zhada on 04/09/2008 10:38:59 A lot of people solo in MMO's, don't read forums, can't be bothered to interact or do teamwork. Same with guilds/corps, people just can't be bothered to register or the guild/corp forums and interact. Only if pressed (ie, it's profitable) will people actually interact.
Luckily some people are different, that's the thing you run into. That and alts ofcourse.
I agree, but even if person totally CBA to read and posts on forums, even then after a certain amount of time he would for sure post more than 4 posts. Don't you think that 4 posts for the whole life of any average accounts is a bit rediculously small number ?
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Jastra
Gallente Black Thorne Corporation
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Posted - 2008.09.04 10:42:00 -
[9]
no, you've assumed an average which is way to high, the average would be more like 3-4 posts with some people whoring, a small number, say 200, and the vast majority never posting at all
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Tippia
Caldari School of Applied Knowledge
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Posted - 2008.09.04 10:43:00 -
[10]
Actually, from previous games I've played, I'd say that 3.9 posts per subscriber sounds about right, or maybe even a little high.
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Witcher
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Posted - 2008.09.04 10:43:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Stormwind Bloodfeather doesn't really work, you have to consider time zones, countries etc. EVE is a world spanning game. Played by people everywhere. You can figure that in a 24 hour period you will have 50-60 thousand players or more logging on and off to play in their "optimal" play times around the world. The average server load is between 25-32k players online (all combined). Factor in time... thats a lot of players.
least thats how I figure it roughly. You also have to consider that not all "subscribers" are actually playing the game. I have a friend with three accounts. two he only skill trains on while playing the other. my g/f and I have 4 accounts between us, obviously we could run all 4 at the same time but even with three computers (2 gaming setups) I prefer to concentrate on one thing at a time... so they generally stay logged off, or if on, are minimized while my main "used" account is doing whatever i'm doing atm.
So that is 4 accounts, 2 of which are frequently used and 2 which are not. factor in that I am a photophobe and do web-design in my spare time from my home (self employed) means I can play eve for 12 hours a day if I want.
Storm
exactly, that was one of the things i was trying to say
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Devilish Ledoux
Caldari Jericho Fraction The Star Fraction
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Posted - 2008.09.04 10:43:00 -
[12]
ITT: Someone proves that you can use a lot of math and still be completely wrong abotu everything, ever. _
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Witcher
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Posted - 2008.09.04 10:44:00 -
[13]
ofc best will be to get official statistics from CCP
Hey you devs, comin, tells whats the average post per unique account ?
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Stormwind Bloodfeather
Minmatar Sogdian Traders Inc
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Posted - 2008.09.04 10:45:00 -
[14]
also you have to consider that some players are "casual" players only logging on during their weekends or every once in a while. Hell I played Everquest for 3 years before I ever made a post on their forums. So you really can't judge player activity by post counts.
Storm
In EVE, your only friend is your ship and it's weapons. All others are the enemy! |
VeroneaTT
Amarr Hedion University
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Posted - 2008.09.04 10:46:00 -
[15]
I was part of a corp that had many people...over 1k iirc. Almost none of them ever posted here. No reason to with a good private corp website and ingame chat.
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Sirion Fujiwara
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Posted - 2008.09.04 10:47:00 -
[16]
I must have played at least 2 years before I bothered to post anything. And I am not sure I am even close to 39.... The vast majority of players don't see the point, as far as I can tell.
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Devilish Ledoux
Caldari Jericho Fraction The Star Fraction
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Posted - 2008.09.04 10:47:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Witcher Hey you devs, comin, tells whats the average post per unique account ?
I don't know, and neither do you. _
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Stormwind Bloodfeather
Minmatar Sogdian Traders Inc
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Posted - 2008.09.04 10:47:00 -
[18]
Originally by: VeroneaTT
I was part of a corp that had many people...over 1k iirc. Almost none of them ever posted here. No reason to with a good private corp website and ingame chat.
True, very true. In EVE, your only friend is your ship and it's weapons. All others are the enemy! |
Rebal 88
Minmatar Infernal Syndicate Ethereal Dawn
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Posted - 2008.09.04 10:49:00 -
[19]
I think its around 7 or so. The rest of us are just alts.
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Devilish Ledoux
Caldari Jericho Fraction The Star Fraction
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Posted - 2008.09.04 10:50:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Rebal 88 I think its around 7 or so. The rest of us are just alts.
Whoops. Posted with the wrong character again. _
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Stormwind Bloodfeather
Minmatar Sogdian Traders Inc
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Posted - 2008.09.04 10:54:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Devilish Ledoux
Originally by: Rebal 88 I think its around 7 or so. The rest of us are just alts.
Whoops. Posted with the wrong character again.
rofl. Don't ya hate that when that happens?
Storm In EVE, your only friend is your ship and it's weapons. All others are the enemy! |
Cygnus Zhada
Amarr Reckless Corsairs
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Posted - 2008.09.04 11:05:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Stormwind Bloodfeather
Originally by: Devilish Ledoux
Originally by: Rebal 88 I think its around 7 or so. The rest of us are just alts.
Whoops. Posted with the wrong character again.
rofl. Don't ya hate that when that happens?
Storm
WOOSH!
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Stormwind Bloodfeather
Minmatar Sogdian Traders Inc
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Posted - 2008.09.04 11:14:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Cygnus Zhada
Originally by: Stormwind Bloodfeather
Originally by: Devilish Ledoux
Originally by: Rebal 88 I think its around 7 or so. The rest of us are just alts.
Whoops. Posted with the wrong character again.
rofl. Don't ya hate that when that happens?
Storm
WOOSH!
?? I think the whoosh is over your head, not mine. I know what he meant, did you?
Storm
In EVE, your only friend is your ship and it's weapons. All others are the enemy! |
Shintai
Gallente Balad Naran Orbital Shipyards
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Posted - 2008.09.04 11:26:00 -
[24]
Im the only one in my corp of 21 that post on the forum.
So subscriptions must be 420000 using your logic.
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Abstraction and Transcendence: Nature, Shintai, and Geometry |
Hegbard
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Posted - 2008.09.04 11:38:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Witcher
For that calculation we would need to make several assumptions: 1) Player who activelly contributes to the game also activelly posts on forums. Which seems to be a reasonable assumption, because active players enjoy sharing new ideas and listen to other players
What have you smoked? And where can I get some?
Are you in any way, the least, just a little bit serious? Any game forum that goes over 10% member base posting is _good_. The usual numbers are probably somewhere between 1-5%. The participation inequality studies show that the absolute majority of the posters post once or twice on very good forums, even where they don't get flooded by trolls and idiots. The EVE forums have a very much higher proportion of trolls and idiots. The absolute majority of players don't care. The majority of the rest maybe post once or twice and then stop caring.
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Chribba
Otherworld Enterprises Otherworld Empire
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Posted - 2008.09.04 12:30:00 -
[26]
EVE-Search tells me there has been around 230k unique characters posting, an average of 37 posts per character and 11 posts per thread.
Secure 3rd party service ■ Veldspar |
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Hungo
Minmatar Research And Tactics
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Posted - 2008.09.04 12:31:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Malcanis Edited by: Malcanis on 04/09/2008 10:37:35 Only a small minority of eve players bother with the forums.
For some reason.
PS Also your maths implicitly assume that all subscribers are playing 23/7
because msot of us arnt attention starved children, our mummys paid us the right amount of time, we ave children, we have lives n forum whining just isnt fun :)
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Jastra
Gallente Black Thorne Corporation
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Posted - 2008.09.04 12:37:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Chribba EVE-Search tells me there has been around 230k unique characters posting, an average of 37 posts per character and 11 posts per thread.
but thats over what, 5 years or something ? - so I'm still not sure thats telling you much about current numbers
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SoftRevolution
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Posted - 2008.09.04 12:39:00 -
[29]
Quote: 1) Player who activelly contributes to the game also activelly posts on forums. Which seems to be a reasonable assumption, because active players enjoy sharing new ideas and listen to other players
You're basing this on what?
Seems completely erroneous to me.
Most people I talk to ingame never make it to the forums. EVE RELATED CONTENT |
Jowen Datloran
Caldari Science and Trade Institute
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Posted - 2008.09.04 12:59:00 -
[30]
Originally by: Stormwind Bloodfeather
Originally by: Cygnus Zhada
Originally by: Stormwind Bloodfeather
Originally by: Devilish Ledoux
Originally by: Rebal 88 I think its around 7 or so. The rest of us are just alts.
Whoops. Posted with the wrong character again.
rofl. Don't ya hate that when that happens?
Storm
WOOSH!
?? I think the whoosh is over your head, not mine. I know what he meant, did you?
Storm
I have to quote how I made a joke and it wooshed over my head so I had to smack my self about it. ---------------- Mr. Science & Trade Institute
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