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The REAL problem with GTC prices!!!!!

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MightyGuy	Posted - 2008.10.21 20:08:00 - [31] Welp its past october ....and prices are still at 500 mil .... guess you were wrong ... the prices are wrong ...and so is eve .. .im sick of the greed and will let my accounts go inactive ..
Juliette Leblanc Gallente Federal Navy Academy	Posted - 2008.10.21 23:03:00 - [32] Originally by: Rho'varo Originally by: Juliette Leblanc On 2008-09-17: I'm willing to speculate on a 'short'. This is of course risky as any perturbation can change the game. But the price RIGHT NOW is at 480-500, and rising. I'm willing to take your challenge and bet on it being 420 or less in mid October. Note that I think it could hit 580 before going down and that it will go down to 360 or less by mid October, but I'm not going to speculate to those extremes. The elimination of Ghost Training may have had some impact on the GTC market, but my inexpert impression was that prices did not head up toward 580 MISK near the end of September, nor did they start down toward 360 MISK by the time the Ghost Training change surfaced (on 2008-10-13, I think, very close to "mid October" in any case). Any follow-up thoughts? In another post I made on the subject with another character I initially speculated a psychological resistance at 500m. At the time of the post you are quoting the prices were 480-500. But the previous week, in non-weekend market, there had been several trades around 520-530, therefore I thought the 500m barrier was non-existent and I wrote "it could hit 580m". It did hit 580-600 a couple of times, but the highest price we can consider having been "current" was 550m. Plus I had actually seen, in those days, a LOT of 500m ads (both buyers and sellers). So the psychological effects of a "round" number like 500 was actually there and helped keeping the top prices down a bit. I foresaw the decline to begin the first week of october. It turned out the decline was slower and later than I thought. However by the second weekend of the months the prices were down to about 420-440m. The trend was inverted when CCP announced the nerf to Ghost Training. Three things I think influenced the GTC market that were not "planned" in my analysis (well: i did say any speculation was risky and subject to perturbations). 1) All this talking of GTC prices. I've seen many people asking in ingame chats and on general forums how this GTC for 500m ISK thing worked. Many new sellers that have not been seen before just entered the market in the second half of september. This helped lowering the price a bit. However it also helped keeping it up and delaying the decline phase: the 500m round number worked both ways and in early october all the WTB were for 450-480 again, but the actual transactions were all for 500m. 2) The Ghost Training nerf. It's hard to say what it will do in mid-long term (I think a lot of accounts will be closed) but in the immediate ... a lot of people are reopening accounts that were ghost training and had a lot of assets (therefore they need to re-subscribe them for one 60d cycle to transfer the assets and maybe sell the characters). This is why between october 15 and 20 the prices have been going up again to 550m and sometimes more. Right now GTC prices are extremely volatile and there's no real "current" price. 3) The real life economical collapse. It begun in september, but many people (except in Iceland) only got a RL impact in october. In the last week, despite prices being up past the Ghost Training nerf, a lot of the regular sellers have disappeared. Probably holding up their RL savings at least until they feel more comfortable with whatever their RL situation is (note: this includes myself. I had planned to sell a dozen GTCs in late september early october, but I only sold two in september and decided to take a break for a while: I also lost a RL job!). During the second week of october, before the nerf announcement, prices had been down to 420-440. I've seen a lot of trades in the 450-470 range too, but the 440m price was more common. However volatility was hight. We'll never know what the price would be by now if there was no RL economical collapse and if CCP did not nerf Ghost Training. Maybe not as low as 360 (my extreme minimum prediction), but I still think it would have been at 400m top. Originally by: CCP Prism X In New Eden, EVE wins you.
Bloody Rabbit Jita Miners	Posted - 2008.10.21 23:10:00 - [33] Just for an update, I broke down and sold 3 for 520 million because of the nice unrounded number. As I'm currently employed so $100 is only a few hours of my day. Originally by: Shadarle I notice a lot of people who are very bad at playing the market tend to want CCP to step in and remove the competition from the market so they don't continue coming in last place.[/qu
Tasko Pal Heron Corporation	Posted - 2008.10.21 23:11:00 - [34] Originally by: MightyGuy Welp its past october ....and prices are still at 500 mil .... guess you were wrong ... the prices are wrong ...and so is eve .. .im sick of the greed and will let my accounts go inactive .. Can I have your stuff? CCP is a business and Iceland has been hit extremely hard by the financial crisis. I wouldn't call it "greed", I'd call it "staying alive".
Juliette Leblanc Gallente Federal Navy Academy	Posted - 2008.10.21 23:19:00 - [35] Originally by: MightyGuy Welp its past october ....and prices are still at 500 mil .... guess you were wrong ... the prices are wrong ...and so is eve .. .im sick of the greed and will let my accounts go inactive .. I do not think I was wrong. I think that things have changed. Prices went down to 420-440, than back up to 500-550 (and sometimes more, but currently the volatility is extremely hight). Saying that the prices are wrong is ... wrong. Prices of a demand/supply based market are never wrong. If you are sick of the greed, stop being greedy and either pay current prices or just buy your own GTCs. I find it ironic how people cry for both too hight and too low prices when they can easily switch from seller to buyer. The normal thing to do is to buy a GTC and apply it to your account. The GTC/ISK market is an optional extra. If you think GTC prices in ISK are too high ... buy extra GTCs and sell them for ISKs. If you think they are too low ... buy your GTCs with your extra isks. If you want to leave ... just do it. I'm not leaving. I've reopened 4 accounts that were Ghost Training (because of the assets I had on those). I will not renew 3 accounts that were Ghost Training with but have young characters and no assets. I'll reshuffle things a bit, transfer some character, sell some other, and then let 7-9 accounts expire. I'll keep playing with 3 to 5 accounts. This all has NOTHING to do with GTC prices. And just a little bit to do with RL economics (even if I've lost a job). It's just that my old strategy for character breeding is no more convenient (it was heavily based on Ghost Training). My old strategy involved using 15 accounts that subscribed for 60d every 90d. My new one ... 3 to 5 accounts continuously subscribed. Originally by: CCP Prism X In New Eden, EVE wins you.
Juliette Leblanc Gallente Federal Navy Academy	Posted - 2008.10.21 23:30:00 - [36] Originally by: Tasko Pal CCP is a business and Iceland has been hit extremely hard by the financial crisis. I wouldn't call it "greed", I'd call it "staying alive". Actually Iceland has been hit, but CCP has not been hit at all (except for any CCP employee that do NOT live in Iceland but is payed in ISKs). CCP is pretty solid. But I think they did their math very well. The ISK has gone down a lot in the last week of september and the first of october. So much that, for exchange rates alone, CCP only needs 3 subscriptions to cash, in ISKs, what it used to cash from 4 subscriptions. But ISKs will go up again. So it's the best interest for CCP to cache in RIGHT NOW as much as they can, as long as they are payed in foreign currencies. If I was CCP I would try to find out some way to increase as much as I can the number of people that pay for a subscription right now. Possibly even the number of people that pay for Character Transfer. Or for Swap Character Portrait. To the cost of loosing up to 25% of the subscriptions in the long term. For every 3 subscriptions that are payed right now, they can afford to lose one altogether and STILL have got more money in. The way they did it was nerfing Ghost Training. Covers up for renewals and many Character Transfers. I would not be surprised to see them offer some "special deal" for Swap Character Portrait too. Originally by: CCP Prism X In New Eden, EVE wins you.
Wadaya Caldari Trailerpark Industries	Posted - 2008.10.22 04:49:00 - [37] Edited by: Wadaya on 22/10/2008 04:53:42 If anyone who regularly visits this forum has a problem paying the current GTC prices, well they are probably in the wrong forum I mean seriously, I don't see the big deal, even if they hit 1 bil for a 60 day GTC, thats what, less then 18 mil/day? Who can't make 18 mil a day? Hell you don't even have to log on to make that kind of money. Wad
Tasko Pal Heron Corporation	Posted - 2008.10.22 06:55:00 - [38] Originally by: Juliette Leblanc Originally by: Tasko Pal CCP is a business and Iceland has been hit extremely hard by the financial crisis. I wouldn't call it "greed", I'd call it "staying alive". Actually Iceland has been hit, but CCP has not been hit at all (except for any CCP employee that do NOT live in Iceland but is payed in ISKs). CCP is pretty solid. But I think they did their math very well. The ISK has gone down a lot in the last week of september and the first of october. So much that, for exchange rates alone, CCP only needs 3 subscriptions to cash, in ISKs, what it used to cash from 4 subscriptions. What a shoddy observation. Odds are very good that a substantial portion of CCP's assets are in ISK. That means a major loss on the books.

CCP Fallout	Posted - 2008.10.22 07:48:00 - [39] Originally by: Tasko Pal What a shoddy observation. Odds are very good that a substantial portion of CCP's assets are in ISK. That means a major loss on the books. Our business is primarily conducted in both USD and Euro. You can read about the state of CCP in Iceland's current economy by reading Hellmar's blog. Fallout Associate Community Manager CCP Hf, EVE Online

Ricdic Caldari	Posted - 2008.10.22 09:11:00 - [40] hehe pwnt by dev
Tasko Pal Heron Corporation	Posted - 2008.10.22 17:08:00 - [41] Edited by: Tasko Pal on 22/10/2008 17:10:25 Originally by: CCP Fallout Originally by: Tasko Pal What a shoddy observation. Odds are very good that a substantial portion of CCP's assets are in ISK. That means a major loss on the books. Our business is primarily conducted in both USD and Euro. You can read about the state of CCP in Iceland's current economy by reading Hellmar's blog. So you guys don't have ISK valued assets in Iceland? I wasn't speaking of revenue. Still you're not publically traded, so that eliminates most of the downside from fluctuations in asset prices. Further, given the sudden policy change, eliminating "ghost training" (I approve FWIW), that indicates that even if CCP isn't directly affected, the change in customer behavior is reducing CCP's revenue stream. That indicates to me that CCP has been "hit" and that "greed" is not the only explanation for CCP's actions.
Cergorach Amarr The Helix Foundation	Posted - 2008.10.22 19:16:00 - [42] Originally by: CCP Fallout Originally by: Tasko Pal What a shoddy observation. Odds are very good that a substantial portion of CCP's assets are in ISK. That means a major loss on the books. Our business is primarily conducted in both USD and Euro. You can read about the state of CCP in Iceland's current economy by reading Hellmar's blog. Heck! After reading Hellmar's blog, it seemed that CCP is poised to take over the entire Icelandic economy ;-)
Kwint Sommer Caldari XERCORE	Posted - 2008.10.22 21:35:00 - [43] Originally by: Tasko Pal Edited by: Tasko Pal on 22/10/2008 17:10:25 Originally by: CCP Fallout Originally by: Tasko Pal What a shoddy observation. Odds are very good that a substantial portion of CCP's assets are in ISK. That means a major loss on the books. Our business is primarily conducted in both USD and Euro. You can read about the state of CCP in Iceland's current economy by reading Hellmar's blog. So you guys don't have ISK valued assets in Iceland? I wasn't speaking of revenue. Still you're not publically traded, so that eliminates most of the downside from fluctuations in asset prices. I would expect the bulk of their assets to be the server which is in London and their HQ in Iceland which is a longterm investment and thus not going to be written off. Since they receive primarily Euros/USD and buy hardware and support for the server primarily in Euros/USD I would expect the bulk of their cash to have not been in ISK so that should be fine. The great bulk of their revenue is in Euro's and USD so their revenue stream is still there. Their expenses are maintaining the server, paying their employees and any debt they may have. The server's in London so its unaffected, they probably pay their employees in ISK which means they're now saving a ton of money and I would expect any debt to be in ISK and if it is, it just got a lot lighter. So, this is actually a big boost for them. Their expenses just dropped and any debt just got devalued while their revenue stream remained almost untouched. Originally by: Tasko Pal Further, given the sudden policy change, eliminating "ghost training" (I approve FWIW), that indicates that even if CCP isn't directly affected, the change in customer behavior is reducing CCP's revenue stream. That indicates to me that CCP has been "hit" and that "greed" is not the only explanation for CCP's actions. It doesn't have to be greed or rough financial times. Some of them actually play the game like us and even get ticked about some of the semi-exploits people use, just like we do. It's quite possible that they simply got tired of people ghost training alts simply to sell them for ISK. It was never an intended feature and enough people abused it that they finally did something about it. Purchasing and Shipping Moon Minerals
Shar Tegral	Posted - 2008.10.22 21:53:00 - [44] Originally by: Kwint Sommer It's quite possible that they simply got tired of people ghost training alts simply to sell them for ISK. It was never an intended feature and enough people abused it that they finally did something about it. Still don't know why it is so hard for people to accept ^^^this^^^ as a likely possibility. Guess they can't just enjoy the hay they made while the sun was shining. I have a new clone, her skill points are quite low but i forsee vast potential. Born at 05:56 18-Oct-08, weighing 7 lbs 12 oz, and was named Lara Florence. Mother & baby doing well - Dylythium
Juliette Leblanc Gallente Federal Navy Academy	Posted - 2008.10.22 22:48:00 - [45] Originally by: Shar Tegral Originally by: Kwint Sommer It's quite possible that they simply got tired of people ghost training alts simply to sell them for ISK. It was never an intended feature and enough people abused it that they finally did something about it. Still don't know why it is so hard for people to accept ^^^this^^^ as a likely possibility. Guess they can't just enjoy the hay they made while the sun was shining. I am (should I say was) a character breeder. Personally I do accept it. And I'll adapt to it: i'm dropping the character breeding/trading activity alltogether. It was but one of the hundreds of possible "jobs" you could do in EvE's sandbox. However CCP's attitude is sometimes disturbing. They had the code to remove the Ghost Training at least since they removed that possibility on the asian server. They DID consciously refrain from deploying it to TQ. Them SUDDENLY decide to do it and give three days of warning, when whoever was using that mechanic was planning months or even years ahead. That is as disturbing as their habit of deleting posts from threads. Originally by: CCP Prism X In New Eden, EVE wins you.
Shar Tegral	Posted - 2008.10.22 23:12:00 - [46] Originally by: Juliette Leblanc However CCP's attitude is sometimes disturbing. They had the code to remove the Ghost Training at least since they removed that possibility on the asian server. They DID consciously refrain from deploying it to TQ. Nothing suspicious about it at all. At the time of Eve China deployment CCP was much more vulnerable to community backlash. Eve China never had it so there was little for them to complain about. Eve Global though had it for a good long while and it was decided to leave it in place. Simply as a continued perk instead of activating the fix for it. Then people like you used it to excess... ... And like you said, no worries. Weasels always find some hole to grubbing around in. Happy hunting. I have a new clone, her skill points are quite low but i forsee vast potential. Born at 05:56 18-Oct-08, weighing 7 lbs 12 oz, and was named Lara Florence. Mother & baby doing well - Dylythium
Clair Bear Coalition of Nations Free Trade Zone.	Posted - 2008.10.22 23:22:00 - [47] Originally by: Juliette Leblanc Them SUDDENLY decide to do it and give three days of warning, when whoever was using that mechanic was planning months or even years ahead. That is as disturbing as their habit of deleting posts from threads. This is part of why the shine of eve wore off for me. Eve encourages planning and taking approaches which pay off months or years down the road. And yet, the goal posts are and WILL be moved with no notice, wiping out months or years of work. Can I adapt? You betcha, this particular change should be very positive for my wallet. Having ghost trained alts extensively in the past I'm way ahead of the new guys even if all I do is sell the characters once prices double. Will I? Meh.
Ami Nia Caldari	Posted - 2008.10.23 10:09:00 - [48] Originally by: Shar Tegral Originally by: Juliette Leblanc However CCP's attitude is sometimes disturbing. They had the code to remove the Ghost Training at least since they removed that possibility on the asian server. They DID consciously refrain from deploying it to TQ. Nothing suspicious about it at all. At the time of Eve China deployment CCP was much more vulnerable to community backlash. Eve China never had it so there was little for them to complain about. Eve Global though had it for a good long while and it was decided to leave it in place. Simply as a continued perk instead of activating the fix for it. Then people like you used it to excess... ... And like you said, no worries. Weasels always find some hole to grubbing around in. So you are saying that Ghost Training was a bug that they refrained from fixing for fear of community backslash and now they do it because they are not feared anymore? If true that's scaring!! It feels like having three playstyles in EvE: PvE, PvP and DvP (developers). Originally by: CCP Mitnal So we can 1 v 1 with Garmon.
Bloody Rabbit Jita Miners	Posted - 2008.10.23 16:37:00 - [49] Originally by: Ami Nia So you are saying that Ghost Training was a bug that they refrained from fixing for fear of community backslash and now they do it because they are not feared anymore? If true that's scaring!! It feels like having three playstyles in EvE: PvE, PvP and DvP (developers). Personal I believe CCP when they state that this was starting to be used more and more and so it popped up on their screen. Its the idea of drivers who speed, for the most part cops don't enforce speed limits but after a deadly wreak or someone run down then the cops go out and enforce the laws. I believe that some of CCP knew of this and just didn't care til their customer base started to use this more and more; you can't hold it against a company for closing a hole when few use it, but when it starts to hurt the revenue then something needs to be done. Originally by: Shadarle I notice a lot of people who are very bad at playing the market tend to want CCP to step in and remove the competition from the market so they don't continue coming in last place.[/qu
Presidio Hug Nutz	Posted - 2008.10.24 14:41:00 - [50] Another thing everyone is missing is. Isk is getting increasingly easier to farm then RL currency. Worldwide economy is hurting people are loosing their jobs or they are affected by the economic hysteria. Which causes less people to spend RL money and more people to pay for gaming time with ISK. This creates more demand for GTCs bought with isk and therefore raises the price. -

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