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Anyone watching the global economic collapse?

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JAQUE ALERA	Posted - 2008.09.18 18:29:00 - [1] Anyone paying attention and taking steps to at least have a months supply of food and water? Anyone? Anyone? Hello?
JAQUE ALERA	Posted - 2008.09.18 18:29:00 - [2] Anyone paying attention and taking steps to at least have a months supply of food and water? Anyone? Anyone? Hello?
Lilan Kahn Amarr The Littlest Hobos	Posted - 2008.09.18 18:31:00 - [3] eh? our economy is fine "Bringing Content to you 1 round of ammo at a time"
Lilan Kahn Amarr The Littlest Hobos	Posted - 2008.09.18 18:31:00 - [4] eh? our economy is fine "Bringing Content to you 1 round of ammo at a time"
Captain Hudson Caldari Privateers Privateer Alliance	Posted - 2008.09.18 18:34:00 - [5] Originally by: Lilan Kahn eh? our economy is fine lol! you must be John Mccain Bin Laden Dancing
Captain Hudson Caldari Privateers Privateer Alliance	Posted - 2008.09.18 18:34:00 - [6] Originally by: Lilan Kahn eh? our economy is fine lol! you must be John Mccain Bin Laden Dancing
Benco97 Gallente The Star League	Posted - 2008.09.18 18:36:00 - [7] well MY economy is fine, we grow our own veg on some of the land and we've got a well. I'm pretty sorted really. Originally by: P'uck You're a DUMBASS - bold italic underline at the VERY LEAST.
Benco97 Gallente The Star League	Posted - 2008.09.18 18:36:00 - [8] well MY economy is fine, we grow our own veg on some of the land and we've got a well. I'm pretty sorted really. Originally by: P'uck You're a DUMBASS - bold italic underline at the VERY LEAST.
Jim McGregor	Posted - 2008.09.18 19:01:00 - [9] Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Its not global yet, in fact I doubt it will become global. But the US will be in some severe trouble before the end of the year. How much it affects Europe is difficult to say. --- Originally by: Roguehalo Can you nano Titans?
Meiyang Lee Gallente Azteca Transportation Unlimited Gunboat Diplomacy	Posted - 2008.09.18 19:04:00 - [10] Originally by: Jim McGregor Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Its not global yet, in fact I doubt it will become global. But the US will be in some severe trouble before the end of the year. How much it affects Europe is difficult to say. Well the Dutch economy is bound to notice considering most of Europe's import and export goes through us to and from the US. But these days Asia is in fact a larger portion of the shipping traffic, so the impact, while certainly noticable, won't be as bad.
Gadarra Gundleus	Posted - 2008.09.18 19:05:00 - [11] Smug git response here - I'm fine. Mortgage paid off, haven't been an ignorant chav on credit cards and living quite comfortably thank you. I work in finance and before you ask, my company is fine, as they didn't have clueless idiots coming out of public school trading the bank's assets away on rotten bonds or derivatives. It is scary how thick some of the people are who are in charge of these multi-national organisations. In fact, I was wishing I was working for HBOS right now, as I would have jumped at the redundancy money Lloyds bank will be offering. Lloyds very kindly made me redundant 7 years ago and I received a very nice packet thank you, which paid off my mortgage
Gadarra Gundleus	Posted - 2008.09.18 19:08:00 - [12] Originally by: Jim McGregor Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Its not global yet, in fact I doubt it will become global. But the US will be in some severe trouble before the end of the year. How much it affects Europe is difficult to say. Google Northern Rock; HBOS; LIBOR rates shooting up; No confidence between banks in the UK. I think we've caught the flu from the US. Also Germany and Spain (to name just 2) have gone into recession and the UK may fall into one (a good thing me thinks) come the next GDP figures.
JAQUE ALERA	Posted - 2008.09.18 19:09:00 - [13] Originally by: Jim McGregor Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Its not global yet, in fact I doubt it will become global. But the US will be in some severe trouble before the end of the year. How much it affects Europe is difficult to say. It is global. The US is a huge counterparty on the derivatives market. Looks like we are defaulting across the board. Fiat currency is a fractional reserve monetary system. The entire world is deleveraging with horrific consequences for everyone. June Derivative Market $692 TRILLION
Jim McGregor	Posted - 2008.09.18 19:27:00 - [14] Edited by: Jim McGregor on 18/09/2008 19:28:52 Originally by: JAQUE ALERA It is global. The US is a huge counterparty on the derivatives market. Looks like we are defaulting across the board. Fiat currency is a fractional reserve monetary system. The entire world is deleveraging with horrific consequences for everyone. I dont think so. I think we will see some effects, but nothing that will affect people to a large degree in Europe. Mortgages on houses will be more expensive, so people will have less money for flat screen TV's, but they will manage without problems. I smile at terms like "horrific". Maybe it will be horrific in some parts of the US since they spend all their money on wars, but not in Europe. We'll see at the end of the year what has happened. I think you will see that while the US is in trouble, most of the world is doing pretty good still. --- Originally by: Roguehalo Can you nano Titans?
JAQUE ALERA	Posted - 2008.09.18 19:41:00 - [15] Originally by: Jim McGregor Edited by: Jim McGregor on 18/09/2008 19:28:52 Originally by: JAQUE ALERA It is global. The US is a huge counterparty on the derivatives market. Looks like we are defaulting across the board. Fiat currency is a fractional reserve monetary system. The entire world is deleveraging with horrific consequences for everyone. I dont think so. I think we will see some effects, but nothing that will affect people to a large degree in Europe. Mortgages on houses will be more expensive, so people will have less money for flat screen TV's, but they will manage without problems. We'll see at the end of the year what has happened. I think you will see that while the US is in trouble, most of the world is doing pretty good still. I smile at terms like "horrific". Maybe it will be horrific in some parts of the US since they spend all their money on wars, but not in Europe. The smile of the innocent. Spend a few minutes researching the derivatives market. Start wondering why the UK implemented a no "shorting" rule today? Why has both Russian stock exchanges been halted three days in a row? Ask yourself what are the consequences when all 5 wall street investment banks have declared bankruptcy or merged or desperately looking to merge? Ask yourself why the central banks did this today: The Federal Reserve almost quadrupled the amount of dollars central banks can auction around the world to $247 billion in a coordinated bid to ease the worst crisis facing financial markets since the 1920s. The Fed increased the amount of dollars that the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and other counterparts can offer from $67 billion ``to address the continued elevated pressures in U.S. dollar short-term funding markets.'' The Bank of England, the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank also participated..... ``There's a complete lack of faith in the markets,'' said Jim O'Neill, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in London. ``There's a lot of cash hoarding and people losing trust in banks, so the central banks are acting to relieve that. This might not be the last time they have to act.'' Bloomberg. The system has crashed. Food/water. One months supply. Better safe than sorry.
Kazuma Saruwatari Caldari	Posted - 2008.09.18 19:44:00 - [16] sheesh, you think you people have it bad now. Where I live, we've been in decline since the 80's. -
Jim McGregor	Posted - 2008.09.18 19:46:00 - [17] Originally by: JAQUE ALERA The system has crashed. Food/water. One months supply. Better safe than sorry. Be my guest. :) --- Originally by: Roguehalo Can you nano Titans?
JAQUE ALERA	Posted - 2008.09.18 20:15:00 - [18] Looks like Paulson is bringing back the RTC. Should put off the inevitable past the elections. I will miss the dollar. Let's see what our debt holders think. Update on Friday.
Valan The Fated	Posted - 2008.09.18 20:36:00 - [19] We're making a mint in the City. Not that anyone started some rumours to short sell HBOS shares or anything lol. Everything would be fine if the ignorant didn't panic off the back of it and turn rumours into truth. But unfortunately volatility makes money. /start sig I love old characters that post 'I've beeen playing the game four years' when I know their account has been sold on. /end sig
Victor Vision Amarr Central Intelligence Service	Posted - 2008.09.18 20:51:00 - [20] Edited by: Victor Vision on 18/09/2008 20:52:05 Yeah, paying very close attention. Back in the day when some weirdos flew planes into large buildings, the economy as well as my formerly very well running business went into a downwards spiral. From highflight to crash landing. During the last two years I managed to get stuff back up running. So I am not very keen on seeing another downwards spiral. Anyways, not all businesses suffer from world economic problems. The branches that profit from peoples free time - at low fares for the customers - can actually benefit. Video Games for example. Or other low cost leisure businesses. So if we go into a large economic depression again, I have got everything prepared and ready to startup something in this category. But I prefer the economy recovers, and I can stick to my current trade. EVE War I-The Beginning - EVE HistoryWiki
Cmdr Sy Appetite 4 Destruction The Firm.	Posted - 2008.09.18 20:53:00 - [21] Edited by: Cmdr Sy on 18/09/2008 20:56:53 Watching, yes. 500+ point intra-day swings on the Dow, LIBOR doing a yo-yo, what a riot. Yeah, the world economy is stable. HBOS being bought by a bank half their size per a government order, WTF? Funny thing is, months ago after my expectations about A&L and B&B bore fruit, when asked by friends/family what the longer term future might hold, I said HBOS and RBS were unlikely to survive intact, and repeated it these last few days, with a medium term time frame of a year or so (short term predictions are a mug's game). I had in mind something like RBS selling NatWest, ie pawning a few performing businesses to survive. Imagine my surprise to read Lloyds TSB got forced into buying the whole of HBOS. The whole damn thing. I nearly choked on my sandwich. One of just a few relatively risk-averse British lenders, one likely to pull through just fine, was forced to waste that advantage on contaminating itself in service of political expediency. Rather than saving the seeds of recovery to be sown later, we are eating them because we cannot bear the thought of dieting through a couple of winters. That will cost us later! Who buys B&B and whatever RBS sheds, there is a good question. My current expectation in the case of the former is the taxpayer. Full of garbage just like WaMu and a notch above junk. Financial short-selling ban... another WTF. That's good for an explosive rally for a week or two through covering, then a large chunk of the buyers disappear even as rattled people phone their pension fund managers and try to sell into it (I hope). I bet (hope) I will be seeing a lot of that in my lunch breaks next week. Also, limiting the rule to financials will be of little direct assistance as far as propping up the whole FTSE 100 index. Thanks to the commodity bubble, it is packed with energy and resource companies, and in a credit collapse, the price of their product is unsustainable. No printing -> that vulnerability gets ripped open. Like I said earlier in a similar thread, if the bad news flow keeps up, we might hit 4500 without touching the 200 DMA, even if we rally several hundred points tomorrow and next week. If I had any exposure to this through a fund or ISA, I would use the opportunity to fix that. The Russian market is toast when it reopens, whenever that is, and that uncertainty is half the problem. A 75% loss is preferable to stranded capital, which is what it is now. Open-ended market closure instead of circuit breakers, again, WTF? Their equities are dead even if the US prints and forces industrial commodity prices back up. The regulators finished off any remaining confidence with a bullet to the head. And a profitable nickel mine is of no use if you can't roll over debt. That is the critical issue in the end. By the way, with funds failing to meet margin calls and Russian banks failing to meet their obligations to each other, there is a possibility Citigroup is getting burned by counterparty credit risk right now. The Russian government is probably covering exactly such shortfalls with their injections, but if your borrowers lost the money, there is no refund. No news yet, which is odd. But I have a funny feeling any schadenfreude there is unwarranted. I am trying to understand the logic behind the Gilt curve. Inverted, expectations of lower interest rates, fine. But where is the mass flight to safety? Americans are accepting yields near zero at the short end. Our situation strikes me as irrational, considering protecting as much of your money as possible over-rides worrying about what the MPC will do next. Sitting out a FTSE collapse beats their interest rate games as far as I am concerned. Part of me wishes the long end would shoot up and stay there a while so I can lower my cost basis and pocket the gain later, but I guess by that point no-one would have a job. Oh well. At least I am not losing money. EVE CCG Trinity Booster
CynoAlt1 Lyrus Associates The Star Fraction	Posted - 2008.09.18 20:55:00 - [22] WE'RE ALL DOOOOOOOMED
Abrazzar	Posted - 2008.09.18 20:56:00 - [23] Well, US weapon exports seem to be doing fine.... -------- Ideas for: Mining
Captain Hudson Caldari Privateers Privateer Alliance	Posted - 2008.09.18 21:17:00 - [24] Originally by: Gadarra Gundleus Smug git response here - I'm fine. Mortgage paid off, haven't been an ignorant chav on credit cards and living quite comfortably thank you. I work in finance and before you ask, my company is fine, as they didn't have clueless idiots coming out of public school trading the bank's assets away on rotten bonds or derivatives. It is scary how thick some of the people are who are in charge of these multi-national organisations. In fact, I was wishing I was working for HBOS right now, as I would have jumped at the redundancy money Lloyds bank will be offering. Lloyds very kindly made me redundant 7 years ago and I received a very nice packet thank you, which paid off my mortgage I doubt they care when they picked up their nice ú5million bonus last year Bin Laden Dancing
JAQUE ALERA	Posted - 2008.09.18 21:32:00 - [25] Always count on Cmdr Sy to back up economic posts with a brilliant technical report. Keep them coming. I believe the T-Bill market is illustrating there is no flight to safety to be had anywhere. 90 day t-bill yielding 1.07% and they are being bought shows me some serious turmoil, disconnect and fear. The US limited shorts in 1931. Lasted two days.
Cmdr Sy Appetite 4 Destruction The Firm.	Posted - 2008.09.18 21:36:00 - [26] Last year I met some guys writing insurance bonds at Lehman straight after an MA... that was a year after a relative bailed out of there knowing it was going belly up. Interesting conversations. They knew two years ago if not three, they were not evil, just variously arrogant or out of their depth. Either way, the wrong people in the wrong place. Unrepresentative or not, it only takes enough of them out there to sink the good with the bad. That is one of the things that got me paying attention, realising the damage had already been done, and was merely awaiting discovery. EVE CCG Trinity Booster
DubanFP Caldari Kylia Inc.	Posted - 2008.09.18 21:41:00 - [27] Edited by: DubanFP on 18/09/2008 21:46:56 From what i've seen it sounds more likely to be another 1987 where the economy crashed, was flooded with smart investors buying low, and recovered days later. This may actually be the best time to get in on it rather then the worst. Of course if it's another 1929 we may very well be $#@#ed. _______________ "Cheap" and "Lame" are words created by people who refuse to admit they have been completely outclassed
Kyle Klanen	Posted - 2008.09.18 22:33:00 - [28] I am not going to pretend to understand economics but isn't the UK a consumer driven thingy based on people buying stuff? If less people are buying stuff due to increased bills and living costs wont that have a knock on effect to the rest of the British economy?
Brigsby5987 Caldari 32nd Amarrian Imperial Navy Regiment.	Posted - 2008.09.18 22:38:00 - [29] Don't worry guys. We have a plan in motion to correct our economic woes. You can start worrying if the stock market drops below 8000-9000 As long as its power level is over 9000, theres nothing to fear. We will just power up and move right past these tough times. _______________________________________ Sig? where. There's no sig here.
Cmdr Sy Appetite 4 Destruction The Firm.	Posted - 2008.09.18 23:04:00 - [30] Originally by: Kyle Klanen I am not going to pretend to understand economics but isn't the UK a consumer driven thingy based on people buying stuff? If less people are buying stuff due to increased bills and living costs wont that have a knock on effect to the rest of the British economy? You get the picture, just include record levels of indebtedness and costs of debt service, and the picture is more clear. The US and many other countries are in the same boat. After the dotcom crash, interest rates were lowered to head off a deep recession, but the system swung too far. People gorged themselves on the windfall of cheap credit, overextended themselves financially and are now having difficulty paying the bills - mortgage, credit card, fuel, utility, food, you name it. As they default, it is coming to light that some of the intermediary activity was fraudulent. For example, mortgages being designed to maximise resale value rather than viability, then shoving them into a bond making sausage machine, repackaging them as steak and selling them on to pension funds and the like, without tying the product to any specific collateral. It is through no oversight, but by design that the final unlucky owner can have difficulty finding out what they really bought and who was responsible. Even students were sucked in, education becoming a new asset class against which cheap credit could be injected into the economy, with current repayment terms dooming many to interest-only service for much of their working life. But it was worth it for the short term stimulus from the money they spent buying iPods and alcohol! That is what it was, economic stimulus. The cost will become clear only in years to come, though you can take a stab at the figures today. The future points to lack of consumer credit and heavy demand for cash. Basically if you redesign your economy around buying stuff you do not need with money you have not earned yet, it wakes up in a cold sweat over the bill and then it is a long time before anyone buys anything else. EVE CCG Trinity Booster

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