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Malkavian Spirit
Minmatar
Caldari Illuminati
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Posted - 2008.09.20 02:01:00 -
[1]
Hey all,
I should probably have more shame about this, but I figure the entertainment this will bring you outweighs my personal desire for prudence. Regardless, here is one of my first attempts at market manipulation. I think the screenshot speaks for itself.
These items are valued at ~250,000 ISK a piece. Not wallet-busting, but I'd much rather have the ISK back in my pocket. Feel free to discuss, and if the urge overtakes you, mock as needed.
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Frenden Dax
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Posted - 2008.09.20 03:10:00 -
[2]
Holy smokes that's a blatant manipulation. :P How much did you raise the price? In the past when I've run manipulations I've noticed that people are ******ed, and will persist in selling at a much lower price in order to "heal the market" or whatever. If you only raised it 30% or so, and you had some jokers/idiots who came in and sold theirs for only 10% over the old price, that might be why you got hosed.
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Mephistocles
Red Frog Investments
Blue Sky Consortium
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Posted - 2008.09.20 03:38:00 -
[3]
Ouch. Not a great result, but I'm sure you picked up some pointers on the way. I don't really view manipulations as much for the profit opportunity as I do just the fun of seeing if it will work.
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Kwint Sommer
Caldari
XERCORE
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Posted - 2008.09.20 03:57:00 -
[4]
 Don't worry, we've all been there. Maybe not that exact situation but we've all gotten stuck with stock worth less than we paid for one reason or another.
I know I bought up all of the cheap [censored] and before I could sell nearly enough it started dropping below where it had been originally and before all was said and done I had twice the amount I intended to and it was worth ~25% less than I'd paid. After a little soul searching I decided I was still confident in my numbers, kept buy orders at the lower price (thus bring my stock to 3x what I had originally planned) and held on to it for 3 agonizing months thinking it was going to be my second biggest loss to date. Then some shit happened and I've sold almost all of it for a ~30% profit which isn't bad even if it was over a bit more than 3 months.
So, we've all been there. But damn if that doesn't stop me from cracking up every time I see that graph.
By the way, there are often people who manipulated the market at some point in the past and thus are stuck with a bunch of stock and the moment it looks like someone is buying an unusually large volume they'll try to liquidate and every once in a while that means your attempt to manipulate the market will end horribly. At least until you make your ISK back by doing exactly what happened to you. 
Purchasing and Shipping Moon Minerals |
Ulrick Storm
Caldari
Caldari Illuminati
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Posted - 2008.09.20 04:30:00 -
[5]
I'm glad you all appreciated my attempt as much as I did.
@Frenden: I tried raising it about 25%-30%, though I bought stock at a wide spread of value. There was a significant gap between sell orders between 300k and 400k, thought I could stabilize at 400k.
@Mephistocles: You're absolutely right, I did learn about the market from this. In particular, something that makes my attempt even more pathetic is the fact that even though I'm a 2 year EVE vet, I never figured out that the little green bars at the bottom represent quantities sold. Until now, my trading was kind of like trying to sit on a stool with a missing leg. You can do it, just not very well.
@Kwint: I had a similar issue with some [censored] a while back. I bought a significant quantity at 13.5k, as they were significantly below market value. However, market value dipped significantly after the purchase and they didn't sell very quickly. So I pushed them at 14.5k for months. All of a sudden, the market shot up and now they're selling at ~40k. In retrospect, I wish I'd just held onto them, the market probably would have rebounded more quickly and I'd be rolling in ISK right now. Regardless, I'm glad I could bring a little levity to your evening.
Finally, for any of you who might feel a modi****of pity for me, don't bother. I made a trip out to Rens, where market value is higher than I expected to get in Jita. They're going to move a lot slower out there, but with time and attention, I should be able to make a profit out of it. At the end of the day, I've learned more about market trading from this particular incident than I have in the last two years. Thank god I have my investments to fall back on.
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Ricdics
Tleilex Developments
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Posted - 2008.09.20 06:07:00 -
[6]
Yep market manipulation can be quite difficult and in some cases risky. I guess the idea behind it would be :
1) Having the capital available to control the item
2) Picking an item with limited supply (ie not a t1 item)
3) Staying on top of your market
4) Trying to convince other suppliers to follow your price movement
I have had plenty of attempts at manipulation, there are tons of different ways to do it. Most of my attempts haven't been profitable (nor negative, they simply left me with a pile of stock with fairly small profit margins).
Anyway, what item was it? |
Taikun
Gallente
20th Legion
Southern Cross Alliance
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Posted - 2008.09.20 06:11:00 -
[7]
Edited by: Taikun on 20/09/2008 06:11:57
 Originally by: Ricdics
Anyway, what item was it?
Looks like a datacore of some description. (Not in Jita of course)
Taikun
A criminal is a person with predatory instincts who has not sufficient capital to form a corporation. |
Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.09.20 06:35:00 -
[8]
*fondly remembers the time when he attempted to manipulate miner IIs for a massive loss.
Happens to all of us at least once, anyone who tells you differently is a bold face liar. |
Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2008.09.20 06:38:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
Happens to all of us at least once, anyone who tells you differently is a bold face liar.
Is it okay if I say I've never tried manipulating a market? (Which I haven't btw.)
To Shar -verb:
1 - To say what you mean.
2 - To say what it means.
3 - To say something mean. |
Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.09.20 06:40:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
Happens to all of us at least once, anyone who tells you differently is a bold face liar.
Is it okay if I say I've never tried manipulating a market? (Which I haven't btw.)
I think we'll let you slide on this one |
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.09.20 06:50:00 -
[11]
I forgot to mention that based on your graph its not a total fail either. You .. well really it depends on how you reacted.. have the chance to actually make a win out of the situation.
Tracking the item in question (not that hard given the data in the screenshot) the average price movement is pretty steady in and around 280k to 300k and volumes are pretty constant.
Your attempted manipulation crashed the market price, likely from other people with extra inventory in stock (typical of datacores since you do literally nothing to earn them once you have standing). So this glut bottomed the price out.
Because volumes are constant you could have bought up the entire lot. NOT relisted at the location(s) and instead moved them to other regions and hubs and slowly bleed them off mitigating your losses*
*and in some instances turning a profit depending on the item
**except datacores.... Ive yet to make a successful move on them in anything other than 0.0 space |
Malkavian Spirit
Minmatar
Caldari Illuminati
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Posted - 2008.09.20 06:55:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
Because volumes are constant you could have bought up the entire lot. NOT relisted at the location(s) and instead moved them to other regions and hubs and slowly bleed them off mitigating your losses*
*and in some instances turning a profit depending on the item
**except datacores.... Ive yet to make a successful move on them in anything other than 0.0 space
I'm not ready to share what the item is, as I need to see some movement before the greater collective knowledge of the MD forums wipes me out, but that's exactly what I'm in the process of doing. Oh, and they're not datacores, just a random item.
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Brock Nelson
Caldari
Flux Technologies Inc
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Posted - 2008.09.20 07:00:00 -
[13]
Why don't you just hold onto the item itself and wait until it rebounce?
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Einstein's Ghost
Space Plague
SOLAR WING
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Posted - 2008.09.20 11:12:00 -
[14]
Well, you bought at least 4 times the daily traded volume and tried to sell it at the same spot. In addition, you did it right after an earlier manipulation attempt. This couldn't end any different imo.
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Effei Gloom
Minmatar
eXceed Inc.
Triumvirate.
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Posted - 2008.09.29 18:02:00 -
[15]
looks more like a bulk sale to me. The price dropped, cause no other buy orders where left.
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CHAOS100
Black Plague.
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Posted - 2008.09.29 20:18:00 -
[16]
From what I've noticed doing Jita trading is that unless you are dedicated to watching the prices closely, they will go back down by someone pricing near the old price. So the artificial price increase is really only short term, so you have to either try to sell it all quick or keep a close eye on someone trying to price lower.
Typically in Jita I see prices on certain mods have a sudden jump on Fridays due to manipulations, then by Monday the mod is back down to its old price. With some mods with limited flow however it is easier to control and the manipulation can last a week or several more.
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dr doooo
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Posted - 2008.09.29 22:16:00 -
[17]
Judging by the price line on that graph (even though that info isn't worth much compared to real experience of the market), that cunning plan was doomed from the outset.
I don't think there is any such thing as effective, profitable market manipulation. The best you can hope for, is to know your particular market, and ideally your competition and their trading habits as well, and just push or pull at the right time.
If you just blunder into a random market and try and pull a stunt like that, all the regular traders and manufacturers are going to take a big chunk out of you with the stock they are sitting on. If they aren't sitting on any, they are not just going to pat you on the back and say well done. Enough of them will go and find some just to **** you off, unless you are lucky.
I think the limit of market manipulation in most markets, (and totally in the high volume profitable markets), is well timed nudges. For example, the market info may be showing a flat line, but you've noticed that your competition isn't just bunging up round numbers, (or 44's 444's 555's etc), or are maybe just putting up buys but no sells, and the total volume of product for sale is falling. The market may look fairly saturated and stable to joe bloggs, but by tracking it daily, you know that there are half as many sells cued up as last week/month.
Then you put in a push to buy all you can quietly*. When you are holding loads and the price is high, you start chucking up loads of extra buy orders to make sure it looks extra hot whilst quietly selling as fast as you can. You shouldn't have to buy much with the buy orders, because inexperienced new comers will be falling over each other to get a piece.
In other words, market manipulation is knowing your markets better than average joe, and being one step ahead when it comes to pushing or pulling with the tide. By having actually watched a market for a significant time you have a huge advantage over those that only have the market info window, and I think that is sometimes mistaken for 'market manipulation'.
* by quietly I mean smallish volume sales regularly renewed. Conversely, being loud, put up several large buy/sell orders, and panic the smalltimers into selling/buying.
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