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Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles
Zzz
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Posted - 2008.09.20 21:37:00 -
[1]
As far as I know, there haven't been any recent changes to game mechanics that would directly influence the price of trit, and yet after sinking steadily for months it seems to have turned the corner. Why the change?
It doesn't seem to be expansion-related - the time when we would have seen a boom for EA is long past and consumption appears to be down, not up, as would be expected in that scenario.
Perhaps people are starting to abandon mining, perhaps speculators have decided that after falling for so long it's due to rise, and people are jumping on the bandwagon. I honestly have no idea, but I'll be interested to hear what people have to say.
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DIY copying in Liekuri
20:1 mineral compression |
Treelox
Amarr
Market Jihadist Revolutionary Party
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Posted - 2008.09.20 21:57:00 -
[2]
summer lull is winding down....
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Manalapan
Dynasty Banking
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Posted - 2008.09.20 22:20:00 -
[3]
 Originally by: Treelox
summer lull is winding down....
What he said is probably right. Less people play during the summer (its more fun to go on vacation and be outdoors) so now as it start to get colder people play more eve.....meaning more demand.
Dynasty Banking |
RaWBLooD
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Posted - 2008.09.20 22:31:00 -
[4]
I started buying more. You'll have to survive.
miners-you can: switch, rob, wardec, nerf, scam them, buy below market, pirate them on their way to sell. mining < trading, ratting, manufacturing from market bought minerals,they still wont go away |
LaVista Vista
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Posted - 2008.09.20 23:02:00 -
[5]
To be completely serious, isn't this around the time when University is starting again?
I have a strange feeling it could have to do with that.
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Kvander Godalming
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Posted - 2008.09.20 23:25:00 -
[6]
Originally by: LaVista Vista
To be completely serious, isn't this around the time when University is starting again?
I have a strange feeling it could have to do with that.
University, yes, but also high school. College kids might play more, but high schoolers are bound to play less -- they have no EVE access for eight waking hours of the day.
If trit prices are going up and a segment of the player population is on less frequently, it would suggest that that segment was more into the supply side of the equation than the demand. Therefore prices rise. QED.
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Waseem
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Posted - 2008.09.21 00:54:00 -
[7]
The billions of trit available from people doing that industrial mission dried up.
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Brock Nelson
Caldari
Flux Technologies Inc
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Posted - 2008.09.21 07:43:00 -
[8]
Canadian school and universities started back at the beginning of September. I was under the impression that American school begins earlier than that.
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Einstein's Ghost
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Posted - 2008.09.21 09:11:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Waseem
Edited by: Waseem on 21/09/2008 01:04:24
The billions of trit available from people doing that industrial mission dried up.
Low Sec Trit Post
Why? Were there any changes to Insane Industrialists?
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Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles
Zzz
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Posted - 2008.09.21 10:09:00 -
[10]
I didn't think that a courier mission was a source of trit, per se - doesn't it just involve people moving it around? Or is it that without this mission being run, there's a large amount of trit in low-sec that isn't being moved to high-sec any more?
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DIY copying in Liekuri
20:1 mineral compression |
Einstein's Ghost
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Posted - 2008.09.21 11:30:00 -
[11]
As far as I remember - you have to deposit collateral to move something like 2.5mil of tritanium. If you then fail the mission, you will end up with some trit worth around 1 isk/unit.
Actualy, that mission was a considerable source of tritanium in Gallente low sec. You could see sell orders of up to 300kk units for half of Jita price. Now these orders are gone and I'm curious about why this happened.
As for how much of this trit was moved to high-sec - no idea. But judging by the volumes - imo this couldn't affect the price in Jita to a significant degree. I tend to agree with Treelox that this is seasonal.
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Kara Rhane
Gallente
Rhane's Research and Development Labs.
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Posted - 2008.09.21 15:37:00 -
[12]
Edited by: Kara Rhane on 21/09/2008 15:37:55
The 0.0 factor
I believe all the reasons listed above (cept maybe that trit mission thing) have indeed effected the market. However, there are a few things that haven't been mentioned. I have some close friends in 0.0 and they keep me up to date on all this 0.0 political bs.
The destruction of the Smashkill bloc.
In the east is geminate, which connects to a drone region. In that area lived something like 20+ alliances. Some as large as 2000+ members, some as small as 200. With a rough estimate is was close to 11,000 people living in 4 regions that touch the forge. Geminate with the drone regions produced a heck of alot of minerals when people from drone lands had to sell compounds for isk. All those minerals flooded the market trit being the prime one in Plush compound. All but a trickle of those alliances remain there now, and the new owners don't rat the drone regions. As such the minerals have fallen away to nothing.
Hydra and Pure are kicked from Vale of the Silent
Nothing against either alliance, but Vale is another region that touches empire. In it there were something like 6 alliances totaling almost 6,000 people living there and in Pure's holdings in Drone lands. Hydra has been destroyed and Pure is losing it's last stations in the area atm. Another good supply of Plush compound runs out, and the many carebears from Hydra have left the area. Thus mineral loads, including trit have dried up.
War comes to 0.0
A number of wars are being fought in 0.0 at this time, anyone can hear it from almost anyone. BoB has attacked North, Tri has attacked Northeast, AAA has attacked IAC in catch and CVA & company in Providence, S.E. & Comp has attacked RSF in Esoteria, P.L. & company were attacked in fountain and now attack some of their aggressors in Cloud ring.
"Why does that matter? People from 0.0 don't ship trit to empire!"
Your right they don't, but they BUY IT ALL UP to make new ships which are dying in droves out in the deepest regions in space.
Most people won't notice it but in Verge Vendor, Genesis, Everyshore and Placid any and almost all low ends that are easily accessible on the market have been bought. MASSIVE 500 mill unit orders for minerals have popped up in the minor trade hub systems in each and minerals in even low sec that have been sitting for months on end are quickly disappearing off the market.
Yet if you read the battle reports battleships, capital ships and even super capitals are being destroyed almost weekly with growing numbers in many regions. One week between all the wars I listed above over 90 carriers had been destroyed, 50 dreads, 3 motherships and 1 titan all went down. I didn't spend time looking at all the battleships lost.
But since that week minerals have been hovered out of empire and many markets that touch up against 0.0 have been drained clean. Verge vendor, Lonetrek, Tash-Murkon and Placid have seen massive amounts of ships, modules and ammos bought way over higher levels. Yes, I flew around in a ceptor while at work to check this stuff since I was trying to build something and everything was 15% higher.
Personally I think it might not be a bad thing as people adjust their prices and more products are moved. But please factor all this in, when you do you see just how crazy the markets become when people in 0.0 try to replace their losses.
EDIT: Fixed a typo
*****
Rhane's Research and Development LabsÖ
Click to search our Ammo's, Missiles, and Drone BPO sets. |
Waseem
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Posted - 2008.09.22 05:04:00 -
[13]
Edited by: Waseem on 22/09/2008 05:09:28
The people doing the industrialist mission could have been real life money traders or a very focused group of people. Not all the names appear like the ones below, several people had standard looking names. I have a sexy wallet of just one of my characters showing the trit purchasing. I am reluctant to give out the link however.
Supposedly a recent ban went out, and subsequently the trit in certain areas of low sec has gone dry.
I alone, moved over 6 billion units of trit over 30 days out of just 1 station. I didn't babysit my orders, and I only trucked it out a couple hours a week. There were several stations in the region doing similar volumes, and to be quite honest I ran out of isk buying as much of it as I could to the point where I was taking 11% loans just so I could keep buying it all, and I still couldn't keep up with supply. I saw several 500-600m orders filled between the time I could get my targeters jumped out, reprocessed and sold so I could put another buy order in. I still have a couple billion units waiting to be moved out of low sec. In total I think I purchased in the range of 9-10 billion units of trit in one month.
Every time someone sold me trit it was for the exact amount of trit you get from Insane Industrialist. Sometimes it was 4-5x the amount. The data was also clearly visible on EVE Central on how much trit was available and where.
Anyway here is a clip of the sexy wallet.
12:37:00 Tritanium Tritanium 2561179 1.07 njmhysd njmhysd
2008-08-16
12:37:00 Tritanium Tritanium 2561179 1.07 njmhysd njmhysd
2008-08-16
12:37:00 Tritanium Tritanium 2561179 1.07 njmhysd njmhysd
2008-08-16
12:36:00 Tritanium Tritanium 2561179 1.07 njmhysd njmhysd
2008-08-16
12:36:00 Tritanium Tritanium 2561179 1.07 njmhysd njmhysd
2008-08-16
12:36:00 Tritanium Tritanium 2561179 1.07 njmhysd njmhysd
2008-08-16
12:36:00 Tritanium Tritanium 2561179 1.07 werytjcf werytjcf
2008-08-16
12:36:00 Tritanium Tritanium 2561179 1.07 werytjcf werytjcf
2008-08-16
12:36:00 Tritanium Tritanium 2561179 1.07 werytjcf werytjcf
2008-08-16
12:36:00 Tritanium Tritanium 2561179 1.07 werytjcf werytjcf
2008-08-16
12:36:00 Tritanium Tritanium 2561179 1.07 werytjcf werytjcf
2008-08-16
12:35:00 Tritanium Tritanium 2561179 1.07 werytjcf werytjcf
It is my understanding this is why people saw 1 billion unit sell orders in Jita all the time for about a month, and those sell orders weren't mine. Feel free to think it is what you want, but I saw the action and it was stunning.
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Midas Man
Caldari
Dzark Asylum
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Posted - 2008.09.22 10:39:00 -
[14]
There appears to be a dip in the supply of "Farmer" supplied goods. I have noticed this since the last patch and price's are rising quite alot across some as peoples stock piles are running low.
Have a look at the supply of +5 Attribute Implants in Jita, they have been pushing 100mil - 125mil for the last week. Hardly any are being sold to buy orders and its only peoples stock piles that are holding prices down.
I expect the next month or so to see a continued rise (untill the farmer skill up there new accounts) in low end minerals and Implants. Ship prices will also rise due to mineral prices but I don't expect as quickly or as much due to the wide spread manufacturing mentality. rare Modules that arenot over supplied by the bucket load should also see an increase.
The Wars in 0.0 will amplify this effect if they continue as heavily as reported above.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.09.22 12:23:00 -
[15]
My opinion is that as Noc recovers in price, miners shift attention elsewhere and stop farming veld as much. Less trit but constant supply of pye and mex still.
But I've been wrong in the past so who knows.
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Menod Penter
Gallente
University of Caille
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Posted - 2008.09.23 02:30:00 -
[16]
Hello and Good Day to You,
This is a cyclical event that happens every year.
In the Spring and Summer months you see a decline in the price. The Fall starts the price rise of Trit until the mid-winter patch arrives. Trit usally peaks just after the patch then starts on its downward spiral again.
Those that know when to get on and off the wave always make hugh amounts of profit.
Have a Nice Day :)
Menod Penter - Mayor of Rens
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Revolution Rising
Venture Research and Resources
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Posted - 2008.09.23 08:35:00 -
[17]
Edited by: Revolution Rising on 23/09/2008 08:35:46
What Kara said.
Wouldn't be surprised to see it go up further when BoB and Goons finally go at it.
*Goes back to his Scordite Mining*
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Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
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Posted - 2008.09.23 12:29:00 -
[18]
Edited by: Tasko Pal on 23/09/2008 12:29:56
I agree with Waseem and Midas. Pye doesn't show the same behavior. My take is there if 0.0 activities or annual changes in demand were driving the change in trit prices, they'd be driving similar changes in pye prices. Pye is still very low.
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Augeas
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Posted - 2008.09.23 17:48:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Midas Man
There appears to be a dip in the supply of "Farmer" supplied goods. I have noticed this since the last patch and price's are rising quite alot across some as peoples stock piles are running low.
Have a look at the supply of +5 Attribute Implants in Jita, they have been pushing 100mil - 125mil for the last week. Hardly any are being sold to buy orders and its only peoples stock piles that are holding prices down.
I don't know about trit, but I've noticed supply shortages of other implants in Jita that were also previously well-supplied by farmers.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.09.23 20:30:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Tasko Pal
Edited by: Tasko Pal on 23/09/2008 12:29:56
I agree with Waseem and Midas. Pye doesn't show the same behavior. My take is there if 0.0 activities or annual changes in demand were driving the change in trit prices, they'd be driving similar changes in pye prices. Pye is still very low.
If there were 0.0 activities you wouldn't be seeing pye rise in price, the direct other min would be mex. Since mex is staying relatively stagnant, and noc is rising instead you can attribute this to a lower supply of trit, and relatively same supply of other mins
So the bottom end insurance basket is responding accordingly. |
Midas Man
Caldari
Dzark Asylum
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Posted - 2008.09.24 13:35:00 -
[21]
Price Panick Time
My prediction of a month of price rises appears to be a bit off. The farmer supplied items are starting to trickle back in so I expect a return to normality in the very near future.
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Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
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Posted - 2008.09.24 15:55:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Midas Man
Price Panick Time
My prediction of a month of price rises appears to be a bit off. The farmer supplied items are starting to trickle back in so I expect a return to normality in the very near future.
I sell some missioner related products in low sec. So I looked over my past month of records. There's been a couple of large (about 10-20 times the average of the remaining order size) bulk buys over the last month (about 60% of the volume) and a large number of missioning alts buying my stuff. My best guess is that this represents many thousands of low sec courier missions with the bulk orders representing a decent sized group of alts starting up level 4 missions. Still I've been selling since January and the current purchases still seem a bit light to be an average month. Back in the hot times, you could see a large bulk order each day.
That's all rather touchy feely since I don't feel like exposing my market to the world, but if you're interested in knowing more, message me in game.
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