OutOfTheBox Cyborg
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Posted - 2008.10.12 02:02:00 -
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Something like ammo is probably just about the worst market to try 'market manipulation', although I don't think the term really means much.
Every time you put up a buy or sell order you are manipulating the market to a degree. Beyond that, obviously any Muppet can force the price down if they have the wealth/stock, and then share the profits off any bounce back with every tom****harry. To push the price up and make big short term profits is not necessarily that hard, but there are a few conditions that have to be right, and a few things you have to do right.
You can't just blunder into a random market, especially a lower end one like ammo, with no idea of the wealth and stock holdings of your competition, and expect to just buy up all the sell orders and turn a profit. If you don't make a loss you will have just been lucky.
First off, obviously the market has to be undervalued. This can either be because the market has been previously flooded, or longer term oversupplied, and now starting to dry up, or demand rising. The point is you can only know this by knowing your markets well over a period of time, the longer the better. You need to know the size and volumes of buy/sell orders usually floating around, and more importantly the normal m.o. of your competition. This information doesn't usually show up on any market info until you've been on top of things enough to go 'all in' or 'all out'. To your competition it may look like market manipulation, but in reality you are just the joky.
a few other points you have to take into consideration are:
- As you found out, the average eve 'buyer' is surprisingly price and 'morals' sensitive. A large proportion just will not buy if they think someone is trying to push the price artificially high, and will often wait for the price to drop again, or pay more in the next system/region, rather than let you 'get one over' on them.
The solution is obviously to be subtle. Take your time, Days/weeks/months depending on market, use multiple buy/sell orders, and as many regions/hubs as you can be bothered with/afford. The flip side for 'average joe buyer' not wanting to get ripped off, is that they don't want to miss out. If buyers see prices rising and not much stock left, every tom****harry wants to buy one before they are all gone/too expensive, and you also get random crazy traders jumping in on a topping out market.
I could go on and on here , but out of time. Basically 'market manipulation' is just knowing your markets well, being 'in' ahead of the competition, having deep enough pockets (at least 3 or 4 times your original estimate is probably a good rule of thumb for isk and time), plenty of eve trading time for the next few weeks/months, and the nerve to wait out/buy up the initial bounce back of small timers seeing a 'good' price compared to last week. Also, you don't have to sell it all at a profit to turn a profit. You can use the tail end to push the price low to rinse and repeat, and still average a nice wedge in your back pocket.
p.s. only go with stuff that can't be made/mined, or can't be made easily/quickly.
p.p.s. Be prepared to be left with lots of stock for a rainy day if it all goes a bit pear shaped. Looking on the bright side, very big sell orders can always be useful at an opportune moment for scaring off other buyers.
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