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Jig Hunter
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Posted - 2008.11.16 03:42:00 -
[1]
I have spent several months training all science skills to 4 or 5 for Tech 2 manufacturing and am now disgusted that I did. I tried producing T2 modules for awhile until I got the hang of the circus that surrounds T2 Inventing/Manufacturing, and by circus i mean hunting weird items either sold only by NPC's, reactions, or 0.0 Exploration. I could never seem to find all in the same place unless i wanted to fly 30+ jumps from my POS to Jita. Anyways I'm off the subject. The reason for this post is this. I began running Condor, Blackbird, and Caracal blueprint copies. I started with 10 Condors BPC's an was successful on 2 of them(Woohoo! not)I went on with 5 Blackbird BPC's and Failed 5 of 5. I waited a week until I could buy the 80 mill worth of Data Cores to attempt 10 more Blackbird inventions and Failed 10 of 10 with and without decriptors. Saving up some more I spent 35 mill more for enough data cores to do 5 more on Caracal BPC's, and Failed 5 of 5.
Now I ask what the hell is up with going 0 for 20 on T2 cruiser inventions. At the this point any sane would person would say "F*** This" Iv'e spent 150 million isk on Data Cores, 250 Million on BPO's and like 3 weeks running copies to not make a frackin dime? From what I have seen on the market I will never re-coupe this loss unless I get a whole bunch successful at once, which I doubt will ever happen after the way thing have gone. |
Finnroth
Caldari
The Crimson Fraternity
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Posted - 2008.11.16 03:53:00 -
[2]
Do you know why i never started invention? Because i have not enough money. 250mio fnr invention? Pathetic.
It's heavily chance based, that said it's percent, or per 100 - and i believe the sucess rate fnr Cruiser is lower than 40%. Even if you would have failed another 20-30 jobs i wouldn't be surprised. Invention scales with your money you invest - it's just profitable on a much larger scale. Try again if you have 5 billion to burn  |
Ulecese
Ihatalo Research and Development
Ihatalo Cartel
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Posted - 2008.11.16 05:08:00 -
[3]
My invention Ops burns anything from 200-500m worth of datacores and bpcs (combined) per day depending on how many jobs are installed through the day - usually 40-60 per hour.
We get lots of failures, but still do very well with it. You do need a little capital tho to act as a buffer otherwise you'll get nowhere.
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Bartom Dekkar
Nebula Rasa Holdings
Nebula Rasa
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Posted - 2008.11.16 05:16:00 -
[4]
Invention is really pretty capital intensive, particularly for ship invention. If you don't have enough capital for 100 or so runs, it is probably not worth bothering.
When I started invention, shortly after it came out, it was even more expensive. I needed about 1B to get going with just modules, and that was before I even bothered with a POS. Today it is less expensive, but you still need deep pockets to stay in for the long run. |
Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.11.16 05:26:00 -
[5]
Or you could do the math in advance and figure out if its even going to be worth your time.
Try this Calc by Burchov |
Bartom Dekkar
Nebula Rasa Holdings
Nebula Rasa
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Posted - 2008.11.16 05:30:00 -
[6]
 Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
Or you could do the math in advance and figure out if its even going to be worth your time.
Try this Calc by Burchov
Yes, if you don't do this, you will likely lose lots of isk. Even if you do the math, you have to be able to afford to do enough jobs to even out any dry spells, which is why I said 100 runs. I didn't mention that the invention jobs should be for things you can make a profit on, and I guess that isn't always obvious to folks.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.11.16 06:59:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Bartom Dekkar
Yes, if you don't do this, you will likely lose lots of isk. Even if you do the math, you have to be able to afford to do enough jobs to even out any dry spells, which is why I said 100 runs. I didn't mention that the invention jobs should be for things you can make a profit on, and I guess that isn't always obvious to folks.
Most people assume datacores to be free since a large majority of them farm them from their account(s).
Which is funny because there are still a number of items where even if you assume zero cost on the cores, it still comes out as a negative profit to build and sell.
Invention production is not for the lighthearted. It requires quite a bit of logistical effort behind it. |
Jig Hunter
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Posted - 2008.11.16 08:26:00 -
[8]
Well then that wronh what wrong with using odds of Succeeding in 10 instead of 100 that would help not scare new people off from inventing. Not many people ever see close to a billion isk in their wallets unless in 0.0 for awhile, and we all know that the majority of eve is not 0.0. Honestly I think I like the idea of T2 BPO's then at least everybody who had the skillz and can afford the BP's could be involved in the Industry side of things.
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Polly Prissypantz
Dingleberry Appreciation Society
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Posted - 2008.11.16 08:43:00 -
[9]
Invention has far too much emphasis on random chance.
I'm sure I had some deeply philosophical speech to give on the evils of random chance in MMO's to accompany the above observation, but I appear to have lost interest. |
Stealth549
BAD WOLF INC.
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Posted - 2008.11.16 08:48:00 -
[10]
Try mods. I like them better than doing ship invention.
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Barbicane
TGUN Industries
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Posted - 2008.11.16 10:00:00 -
[11]
Base chance for cruiser invention is 25%. With all three skills on lvl 4 it rises to ~30%, assuming no decryptor is used.
The probability of missing 20 jobs in a row is 0.7^20 = 0.08%, i.e. 1 in 1250. That is some increadibly bad luck indeed, so I think chances are you are either lying about the number of jobs done, or you are doing something wrong.
Either way, we don't need more inventors so keep these kinds of threads coming!
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Alex555
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Posted - 2008.11.16 10:50:00 -
[12]
Edited by: Alex555 on 16/11/2008 10:50:40
invention is realy expensive.
i would even say it is a hardcore in terms of burning isks for nothing.
having less then couple of billions just to spare is not even worth trying invention ,because it will wipe u off from the market |
Arboril Vanacaris
The Maverick Navy
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Posted - 2008.11.16 11:25:00 -
[13]
Like i said the last 10 I ran i tried even using a decryptor, and still had 0 succeed, that should not happen with my skills where they are(especialy since i waited until my skills were to 4+, and if CCP wants poeple keep trying they would give poeple a chance of success on SOME of thier forst tries |
Barbicane
TGUN Industries
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Posted - 2008.11.16 12:17:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Arboril Vanacaris
Like i said the last 10 I ran i tried even using a decryptor, and still had 0 succeed, that should not happen with my skills where they are(especialy since i waited until my skills were to 4+, and if CCP wants poeple keep trying they would give poeple a chance of success on SOME of thier forst tries
There's a huge difference between 10 consecutive failures and 20 consecutive failures. 10 consecutive failed jobs is nothing out the ordinary. Every serious inventor is expected to have a streak of 10 failures in a row now and then.
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Bartom Dekkar
Nebula Rasa Holdings
Nebula Rasa
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Posted - 2008.11.16 12:52:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Jig Hunter
Well then that wronh what wrong with using odds of Succeeding in 10 instead of 100 that would help not scare new people off from inventing.
Percent chance is just that. They use a random number generator that has no memory of previous results, just like flipping a coin. There is no guaranteed x out of n. It is just the larger n is, the more likely that x/n approaches the true probability.
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Ghoest
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Posted - 2008.11.16 13:47:00 -
[16]
Anyone complaining about random chance is a noob.
If you you dont plan on doing 100s or 1000s of invention jobs then obviously the skill is a waste. Why would you spend all that time training a skill if you only plan to use ir 30 or so times. |
mahj
Minmatar
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Posted - 2008.11.16 14:12:00 -
[17]
after 100s of inventions i suspect that CCP has a firm grip on success rates and probably manipulate them due to supply. what i do is after a bad run i try another item and tend to get good results |
Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2008.11.16 14:13:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Barbicane
Originally by: Arboril Vanacaris
Like i said the last 10 I ran i tried even using a decryptor, and still had 0 succeed, that should not happen with my skills where they are(especialy since i waited until my skills were to 4+, and if CCP wants poeple keep trying they would give poeple a chance of success on SOME of thier forst tries
There's a huge difference between 10 consecutive failures and 20 consecutive failures. 10 consecutive failed jobs is nothing out the ordinary. Every serious inventor is expected to have a streak of 10 failures in a row now and then.
Every inventor inventing ships should plan on 20 consecutive failures every so often. It happens. 10 consecutive you should plan on a lot. |
Bartom Dekkar
Nebula Rasa Holdings
Nebula Rasa
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Posted - 2008.11.16 15:15:00 -
[19]
Originally by: mahj
after 100s of inventions i suspect that CCP has a firm grip on success rates and probably manipulate them due to supply. what i do is after a bad run i try another item and tend to get good results
I suspect that they just use a random number generator and don't manipulate anything. When they intervene in the market (like with shuttles) they tend to be more direct. All evidence indicates that the invention chance formula worked out by players is as accurate as it needs to be, and that no manipulation is occurring. |
Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles
Zzz
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Posted - 2008.11.16 16:14:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Polly Prissypantz
Invention has far too much emphasis on random chance.
I'm sure I had some deeply philosophical speech to give on the evils of random chance in MMO's to accompany the above observation, but I appear to have lost interest.
The randomness becomes less significant as you work through a large number of jobs. I refer you to the central limit theorem. |
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Kham Katcha
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Posted - 2008.11.16 16:25:00 -
[21]
i personally started with lower goals, as i haven't had the cash to pump into making bigger things like ships. i generally focus on mods and weapons that sell for a few million each, as the BPO's and components were cheaper.
yesterday i spent 30 million on datacores to do 26 jobs. i got 15 successes and 11 failures, so while i'm still doing the math on it, my initial projections are that even with the cost of production and invention, i'll still make 25-50 million back.
granted, it's not a great return on investment, but i enjoy invention/manufacturing, so it was a fun use of time. i put a ten million ISK investment into this and buy/sell everything through two different wallets in my corp so it's easy to keep track of profits/losses/savings. as i make more items and more profit, i spend more on moving up the T2 chain, hopefully insulating myself against the frustration you're currently feeling.
anyway, wasn't meant to be a lecture, sorry for your recently losses. |
Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2008.11.16 17:09:00 -
[22]
Originally by: mahj
after 100s of inventions i suspect that CCP has a firm grip on success rates and probably manipulate them due to supply. what i do is after a bad run i try another item and tend to get good results
The success rate for all items of the same class is ALWAYS the same, CCP don't touch them at all. If the supply goes up PLAYERS stop inventing and so the supply goes down. CCP don't NEED to touch it.
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Bloody Rabbit
Jita Miners
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Posted - 2008.11.16 20:31:00 -
[23]
See what we see here is the learning curve at work,
I started inventing doing 1-5 jobs, it was so depressing and not fun at all. Later I did batches of 10 jobs, at least I got something out of it. Now I record the numbers on a spreadsheet so I can keep track and I like it much better. I can see progress and it doesn't bother me as much, but now I have more isk and real assets so I don't have to grind it out like when I first started.
Inventing is fun and I like the system. |
Slanty McGarglefist
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Posted - 2008.11.16 21:20:00 -
[24]
Edited by: Slanty McGarglefist on 16/11/2008 21:21:11
From what I've been inferring from reading this thread, you'll need a capital of a billion or two ISK to adequately play the Invention game. Not to get off topic too much, how much would you say you'd need for Capital parts construction, since the BPs themselves cost a bil per? |
Bloody Rabbit
Jita Miners
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Posted - 2008.11.16 21:51:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Slanty McGarglefist
Not to get off topic too much, how much would you say you'd need for Capital parts construction, since the BPs themselves cost a bil per?
I started with 4 billion in capital parts, I bought 3 new BPO and started cooking them as I couldn't find anyone selling them researched at NPC price(yes people really do that). So its taken some time but I'm up and running a small operation but I'm still lacking in a big capital business.
50 billion is needed to really cover a race, but there is a little room for small ops like me still.
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Solara Solo
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Posted - 2008.11.16 23:31:00 -
[26]
I enjoy inventing part time, my 2 mains have 9 level 4 r&d agents. I let the datacores build up and then invent the modules and ships i will use. Yes i guess i could just sell the cores , but it is fun to get that t2 bpc.
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IxenBlaze
Gallente
Fighting While Intoxicated
Intrepid Crossing
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Posted - 2008.11.17 00:25:00 -
[27]
to the op: i think your getting a bit ahead of yourself, should probably start off with modules or drones. Ive made alot of TII drones and they make good money. Although, one thing that you didnt mention is if you used a decryptor and an original item. If your having this much trouble you should probably use these.
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