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Acoma Green
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Posted - 2009.01.15 03:47:00 -
[1]
I noticed that since October 2008 Hi ends such as Zydrine, Morphite, Megacyte and Noxcium have been steadily plummeting.
Does anyone have any explanations or theories as to why? Has the demand simply gone? |
Athre
Minmatar
The Higher Standard
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Posted - 2009.01.15 04:01:00 -
[2]
Look at a bit larger of a historic pattern
1) when low end minerals go up, high ends tend to go down
2) winter high ends tend to go down and in summer up. |
Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2009.01.15 04:13:00 -
[3]
 Originally by: Acoma Green
I noticed that since October 2008 Hi ends such as Zydrine, Morphite, Megacyte and Noxcium have been steadily plummeting.
Does anyone have any explanations or theories as to why? Has the demand simply gone?
Nice name btw, awesome series of books. (One of my favorites.) As to your question: This topic is one that has been done to death repeatedly. Mostly under the threads discussing tritanium prices. Some people will tell you it is all about over supply (which it is part of the problem) but in alot of ways it is about the price of tritanium putting downward pressure on all others. (Though morphite is generally exempt from this.) All ships have an artificial floor created by insurance. Tritanium is putting price pressure so all the other minerals shrink in comparison. There is some flex but the market always tries to push back to the floor due to hyper efficiency (or the "minerals I mine are free" crowd). Hope that answers your immediate question. Try reading around the boards to avoid re-asking topics that are old "battlegrounds".
My old mercenary(PVP) corp is recruiting again. Would you believe I'm giving them my signature block for free? |
Revolting
Amarr
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Posted - 2009.01.15 09:52:00 -
[4]
Is it possible that the Rorqual and the Orca help push the nocxium prices down apart from making high end ores easier to mine?
With more ore per cycle a roid field is depleted in fewer cycles, leading to less wear on mining crystals. Mining crystals consist of nocxium, less crystals needed lead to lower nocxium consumption... |
Andrea Erlang
Caldari
Erlang Biolabs
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Posted - 2009.01.15 09:55:00 -
[5]
Also, the peace in drone regions means there are a LOT of high-ends coming back to empire from that area. |
Astarte Nosferatu
Minmatar
Abrivianius Manufacturing Corporation
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Posted - 2009.01.15 09:55:00 -
[6]
On a brighter note, pyerite seems to be going up again. |
W3370Pi4
Caldari
Lords Of Kaos
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Posted - 2009.01.15 15:09:00 -
[7]
Just ask the russians in their drone regions |
nether void
Caldari
Shrapnel Industries
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Posted - 2009.01.15 15:31:00 -
[8]
I have also heard drone regions, but have never seen any numbers on why it would produce more low ends than a 0.0 area full of rocks with the same low ends. |
Omarvelous
Destry's Lounge
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Posted - 2009.01.15 15:41:00 -
[9]
Originally by: nether void
I have also heard drone regions, but have never seen any numbers on why it would produce more low ends than a 0.0 area full of rocks with the same low ends.
Shooting for minerals is easier than mining for minerals.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.01.15 16:59:00 -
[10]
Massive cap production generally requires little high end relatively comapred to the consumption amount of low ends. So as Shar explained this insurance linkage and hyper efficiency crowd that link all minerals helps to force ships to within a certain boundary.
What this does is put constant pressure down as other minerals go up.
The excess Morphite we see is from general slowing and spinning down of T2 production from the T2 clusterfreak we just had and it will take awhile for the true consumption amount to be seen.
I figured it would have recovered by now, but I did predict the massive plummet. So hey 1 out of 2 aint bad. |
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MailDeadDrop
Globaltech Industries
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Posted - 2009.01.15 17:39:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
I figured it would have recovered by now, but I did predict the massive plummet. So hey 1 out of 2 aint bad.
Claiming that your predictive value is on par with a coin toss is a peculiar thing of which to be proud... 
MDD |
Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.01.15 17:42:00 -
[12]
Originally by: MailDeadDrop
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
I figured it would have recovered by now, but I did predict the massive plummet. So hey 1 out of 2 aint bad.
Claiming that your predictive value is on par with a coin toss is a peculiar thing of which to be proud...
MDD
But what if I'm using a two face coin  |
Ellariona
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Posted - 2009.01.15 17:46:00 -
[13]
OR all the ISK farmer intensified their mining projects to get a lot of ore before the patch in march is released. Maybe they got wind of the news that they might be out of business soon. The increase in the offer of those minerals could result in lower prices... |
nether void
Caldari
Shrapnel Industries
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Posted - 2009.01.15 17:56:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Omarvelous
Originally by: nether void
I have also heard drone regions, but have never seen any numbers on why it would produce more low ends than a 0.0 area full of rocks with the same low ends.
Shooting for minerals is easier than mining for minerals.
The real question is how much faster is it than mining them? 2x? 5x? |
cosmoray
Cosmoray Construction
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Posted - 2009.01.15 19:48:00 -
[15]
Originally by: nether void
Originally by: Omarvelous
Originally by: nether void
I have also heard drone regions, but have never seen any numbers on why it would produce more low ends than a 0.0 area full of rocks with the same low ends.
Shooting for minerals is easier than mining for minerals.
The real question is how much faster is it than mining them? 2x? 5x?
I BS is worth about 1.5M ISK in minerals.
More importantly it drops 40m3 of Plush Compound (right one?), plus others. Plush Compound is 1m3 and refines to about 40,000 ISk. Awesome compression, and transports easily.
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GateScout
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Posted - 2009.01.15 22:15:00 -
[16]
The drone regions are quiet. |
Cor Aidan
Imperium Forces
Ethereal Dawn
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Posted - 2009.01.15 23:40:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
Massive cap production generally requires little high end relatively comapred to the consumption amount of low ends. So as Shar explained this insurance linkage and hyper efficiency crowd that link all minerals helps to force ships to within a certain boundary.
I'm not sure I buy this rationale - all the caps I've looked at have roughly the same mineral requirement distribution (to within +/- 2% or so of total minerals required on a per-unit basis) as cruisers on up. The only exceptions among those I've looked at are freighters which have a much greater trit percentage (say 86% trit instead of 75%), and for some reason I don't think those are being lost in cap fights. I admit that I haven't looked at all the caps yet, but have done the dreads and both carriers for Amarr and Gallente. So I don't think it's really the mineral requirement distributions.
I think it has to do more with the fact that the availability of minerals is not in proportion to the usage distribution - which others have pointed out already.
If you're getting high end minerals from refining loot you get way more high ends than you need by the time you get the amount of low ends you need. For mining I don't think this is the case because if you're mining in the most efficient manner for construction purposes you mine the highest end ore until you get enough Megacyte, then switch to the best for Zyd to top that off, etc, then end with Scord and Veld to reach the amount of trit and pye you need. Mining should result in the *exact* mineral availability as is required for construction on this basis.
So what the see-saw link between high ends and low ends tells me is that either more people get minerals from loot than from mining or, more likely, the aggregate population of EVE pilots does not act in a rational manner. 
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Speculative Sally
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Posted - 2009.01.16 07:00:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Cor Aidan
So what the see-saw link between high ends and low ends tells me is that either more people get minerals from loot than from mining or, more likely, the aggregate population of EVE pilots does not act in a rational manner.
I have a funny feeling you're right on both of those counts  |
Kyle Sucks
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Posted - 2009.01.16 07:08:00 -
[19]
Edited by: Kyle Sucks on 16/01/2009 07:08:16
Originally by: Cor Aidan
So what the see-saw link between high ends and low ends tells me is that either more people get minerals from loot than from mining or, more likely, the aggregate population of EVE pilots does not act in a rational manner.
You make me feel smart mining veld. |
Kara Rhane
Gallente
Rhane's Research and Development Labs.
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Posted - 2009.01.16 07:50:00 -
[20]
Well there are a few more factors that calmed down.
First we had the drone regions pumping out tons of minerals when the smashkill block was around. They were funneling a good deal in during this time even while being in war. But after that, we had space changing hands and things moving around.
Secondly just as that space calmed down and PURE. and IRON took dek the GBC called for the MAX campaign and the entire north went crazy again. Pirates flooded into the area and GBC members roamed. Tri then nuked Hydra into the floor (removing almost 4k miners/carebears) so the supplies from the north came to a trickle. Vale and Geminate also went into war at this time and minerals stopped coming out of there as well.
Third, IRON and Mostly harmless space in the drone regions was blitzed by the current drone coalition and a lot of the mining stopped or trickled down. Add to that, many alliances were in war and you have most minerals just being bought up as soon as they came on the market.
For lack of of a better term the entire north and east was on fire. From Cloud ring all the way up and over to Great Wildlands had a large deal of combat.
Then we come to New years time, most of the combat people are down in the south from Great wildlands to Paragon soul. A much smaller amount of regions compared to the north and east. All those people that fought in those campaigns want to replace their losses and make isk again so mining, looting and refining has increased a great deal in the past weeks. Which really started when BoB went to down south.
Including the drone lands there are currently 18 regions of pretty much 'peace'.
The south has 11 regions in war.
The 'BoB regions I'm not sure of, I think their peaceful atm so they could be adding to the mineral flow.
Fountain I read is now in war so I guess we can put that into the 'conflict' regions.
Total of 23 regions under 'peaceful'
Total of 12 regions under 'war'
It's pretty much flipped from one third at 'peace' to two thirds at 'peace' while most fighting is clustered in the south. The mineral flow has just been getting larger and larger during this time. So while we hear about some really large fights occurring in the south we will see more minerals then we know what to do with appear in the hubs. I really doubt some 'hidden' faction is going to launch an assault as most of the players are well known these days.
We'll see but I think we might finally see a large amount of battles while the other two thirds of EVE keeps them supplied with the material to continue fighting as long as there is a will to do so.
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Feronia
Gallente
Magma Industries
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Posted - 2009.01.16 08:33:00 -
[21]
Whatever the reason is for the continued decline, it should come to an end soon.
We're getting pretty close to the insurance bottom limit, only a few % away.
If this downtrend keeps up (and assuming tritanium doesn't climb further), it will soon become profitable to buy minerals, build ships, insure them and blow them up.
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