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Holly Rykayn
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Posted - 2009.01.18 21:01:00 -
[1]
Has anyone written about the effect of the current economic collapse on the market within Eve?
The real market is highly connected with Eve ISK, meaning that there are numerous exchange mechanisms.
Out-of-game ISK sellers are some of the most ISK-rich people in the game. Since they buy and sell ISK, they control trillions in in-game money.
This means that external events may have great impact within the game. It also might explain some in-game market trends that don't seem to make sense within the context of the game.
On average, people have far less discretionary income to spend on game currency. At the same time, since Eve and a broadband connection amount to very cheap entertainment per hour of fun, part of the player influx most likely has something to do with the fact that there are a lot of unemployed people out there and people who are scratching for dough.
One thing you might expect to run into in that kind of situation is ISK-sellers dropping their dollar prices in an effort to dump stocks of ISK for which demand has dropped.
Another thing you might expect would be for in-game commodities to drop in price precipitously. Taken a look at zydrine lately?
Lastly, it's possible that the external collapse has resulted in more macro-miners, people who are trying to use ISK sales to supplement their dwindling external incomes. This would again result in a collapse in EVE commodities prices: more supply in-game as more people mine, less externally-induced demand as external high-ISK real money trades dry up.
People have been commenting that it's getting very hard to make a living on the markets. Part of this is likely due to increased competition but part of it also likely has something to do with decreased ISK supply in-game because people with real lives are no longer buying large amounts of ISK on ebay and then flinging it around unwisely within the game.
Thoughts? |
Estel Arador
Minmatar
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Posted - 2009.01.18 21:35:00 -
[2]
Thought: you're selective in your example(s).
Fit in Tritanium in your theory if you can. |
Janya Rykayn
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Posted - 2009.01.18 21:56:00 -
[3]
What I'm saying doesn't have so much to do with specific examples within the market. I just hypothesize that the economic collapse has effects on the in-game market, and I'm interested in hearing peoples' opinions on the matter.
My guess about trit is that high-volume miners have moved over to the rare minerals, and people are no longer stockpiling trit but have shifted their stocks over to rare minerals. Thus, supply of trit goes down and zyd goes up. Another thing: many times when you see a price hike in a formerly low-priced commodity it has a good deal to do with high volume flip trading.
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Starlight Horizons
Starlight Horizons Corporation
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Posted - 2009.01.18 22:31:00 -
[4]
Having been out of the country for most of the real world economic collapse things have not affected me much in dollars as I have guaranteed job security with the US Army.
However, if people are having a hard time in the market then there is something wrong with them. I have been away from Eve for almost 6 months and yet over the last two days I have spotted numerous buying and selling opportunities on the market and have already turned 100 million into 300 million with little effort.
That is not to brag, just showing that sometimes it really comes down to spotting opportunities and not relying on some gimmick or scam to earn isk.
IPO Blog |
Estel Arador
Minmatar
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Posted - 2009.01.18 22:38:00 -
[5]
 Originally by: Janya Rykayn
What I'm saying doesn't have so much to do with specific examples within the market. I just hypothesize that the economic collapse has effects on the in-game market, and I'm interested in hearing peoples' opinions on the matter.
The problem is that your 'hypothesizing' is completely unfounded. It has no relation at all to ingame realities.
You are claiming 3 things will happen and/or are happening:
1) Isk-sellers are will drop prices
2) Ingame commodities drop in price (example: zydrine)
3) More macro-miners
I have no idea about the rates of isk-sellers (do you have any data on that?) but the other two are the opposite of what's true.
Ingame commodities are not dropping in price - with the price of tritanium 60% higher than 5 months ago a drop in anything reprocessable would be immediately acted upon by reprocessors.
More macro-miners would mean more trit being mined (by far the most profitable) and trit taking a dive. Unfortunately (for your argument) trit is at an all-time high, 60% higher than 5 months ago. I don't know how you get from more stuff being mined to lower commodity prices without looking at trit prices.
Originally by: Janya Rykayn
My guess about trit is that high-volume miners have moved over to the rare minerals, and people are no longer stockpiling trit but have shifted their stocks over to rare minerals.
Everyone else seems to think demand for trit is extremely high...
Originally by: Janya Rykayn
Another thing: many times when you see a price hike in a formerly low-priced commodity it has a good deal to do with high volume flip trading.
Very high-volume in the case of trit... (and I wouldn't call an universal steady climb over the course of 5 months a 'hike')
FREE! jumpclone service û now 146 locations! |
Aladdin Insane
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Posted - 2009.01.18 22:42:00 -
[6]
Edited by: Aladdin Insane on 18/01/2009 22:43:24
Well... Having been made unemployed due to RL economic stuff, i've come back to eve because of a little more time on my hands.
Perfect way to job search, job boards on one monitor - eve on another 
More unemployment, more isk.
_____________________
Eve is not a sandbox
Sandboxes always have kitty poo in them
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Janya Rykayn
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Posted - 2009.01.18 23:07:00 -
[7]
Quote:
My guess about trit is that high-volume miners have moved over to the rare minerals, and people are no longer stockpiling trit but have shifted their stocks over to rare minerals.
Quote:
Everyone else seems to think demand for trit is extremely high...
Yes, and what is that a result of? :)
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Estel Arador
Minmatar
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Posted - 2009.01.18 23:10:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Janya Rykayn
Quote:
My guess about trit is that high-volume miners have moved over to the rare minerals, and people are no longer stockpiling trit but have shifted their stocks over to rare minerals.
Quote:
Everyone else seems to think demand for trit is extremely high...
Yes, and what is that a result of? :)
Let me rephrase that:
Everyone else seems to think that the rise in trit prices is due to the demand rising, not the supply dropping (as you're saying).
FREE! jumpclone service û now 146 locations! |
Janya Rykayn
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Posted - 2009.01.18 23:51:00 -
[9]
Edited by: Janya Rykayn on 18/01/2009 23:51:14
Well, we could go on and on with supply-side and demand-side wrangling.
Rather, I am interested in your opinion as to how the EVE economy is being influenced by the external economy.
Keep in mind that ISK sellers push gigantic amounts of money around in terms of numbers. That industry supports a fair number of people and is worth enough real-world money for them to continue their efforts despite competition from CCP.
Real-money trading essentially represents a black market economy outside the in-game market, and the trading volume of blackmarket (and GTC) ISK means that black- and grey-market trades have a measurable effect on the in-game economy.
The only remaining question would be exactly what the effects are. |
Brock Nelson
Caldari
Flux Technologies Inc
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Posted - 2009.01.19 00:50:00 -
[10]
Ever since the economic burst in Oct/Nov, GTC prices have stock rocketed. There's been more demand for GTC than sellers can keep up. In fact there are less sellers of GTC compared to a year ago because in RL, players are not easily able to afford purchasing GTC for resale.
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