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SilverPick
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Posted - 2009.01.20 14:17:00 -
[1]
Are there any change on invention?
all days i put 7 invention jobs and the last 3 days i get: 0 of 7 1 of 7 and 1 of 7
All jobs on heron bpc.
The last month i get two times 0 of 7....
or i havent luck or... i dont know |
W3370Pi4
Caldari Lords Of Kaos
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Posted - 2009.01.20 14:22:00 -
[2]
invention is chance based
if your finance cant handle the failed invention then you need to pick something that will keep a balance in your wallet even if you fail a few invention job
http://games.chruker.dk/eve_online/invention_chance.php |
SilverPick
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Posted - 2009.01.20 14:26:00 -
[3]
i know that web but...
with 37% how you can get: 0/7 1/7 and 1/7
or the formula is wrong or i havent luck... but isnt normal. |
Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2009.01.20 14:35:00 -
[4]
Originally by: SilverPick i know that web but...
with 37% how you can get: 0/7 1/7 and 1/7
or the formula is wrong or i havent luck... but isnt normal.
Hi, this is how chance works. If you think that 37% means you will always get 37%, immediately proceed to the nearest casino, once you have lost more than 63% of the time, bet all your money since you are 'due'.
You can conceivably have that many attempts and get ZERO, you have had 2. That is still better than it could have been, and it still would have been right. With invention you have to stick with it, when you have done a hundred attempts you will be closer, when you have done a thousand you will be fairly close to the actual success. When you have done tens of thousands of attempts you will be very close. 21 Runs is not significant.
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W3370Pi4
Caldari Lords Of Kaos
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Posted - 2009.01.20 14:42:00 -
[5]
as i said before its luck based its not an actual percentage .
you can make 10 jobs and they will all fail
its not an average success counter .
if you want a better luck make sure you max your skills _______ Join the "Legit Trading" Channel ◘Monitored WTB◘WTA◘WTT◘WTS◘Contracts◘Trade ADs◘◘ Scam free channel◘ |
Loaby
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Posted - 2009.01.20 14:59:00 -
[6]
its called variance
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Alene Kaar
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Posted - 2009.01.20 16:14:00 -
[7]
Originally by: W3370Pi4 its not an average success counter .
that is wrong. it IS an average success counter. but only for infinite trys.
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Chitah
Gallente Estamine Tuga de Altos Estudos
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Posted - 2009.01.20 16:59:00 -
[8]
Edited by: Chitah on 20/01/2009 17:05:38 The last 30 jobs i had 3 sucesses. I only invent cruisers which gives arond 30% chance with my skills 5/5/5.
15 jobs in a row with sucesses (my worst). Altho i think i'm going to beat it on the next time i put 5 jobs of invention. I will reach the fine number of 16 without sucesses (just a bad feeling).
My all time sucess percentage is 19% (20/105).
I know i need more numbers but i consider that until last week i had acceptable sucess percentage. Right now and especially from last week my sucess rate drop significantly... i had average 1 success per 5 jobs now i have 1 in each 15 (5 jobs finished and no sucess whatsoever..AGAIN).
Might be bad luck....just think is weird.
Cheers,
Chitah
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Emily Spankratchet
Minmatar Pragmatics
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Posted - 2009.01.20 17:46:00 -
[9]
Originally by: SilverPick with 37% how you can get: 0/7 1/7 and 1/7
Conversely, with a 1 in 16 million chance of winning the UK lottery jackpot can I ever win if I only buy one ticket?
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Julia Venatrix
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Posted - 2009.01.20 17:47:00 -
[10]
Invention is fine. However, it is pretty clear that luck was nerfed with the last patch. --- Some days you are the pigeon, and some the statue. |
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Stonie Bandit
Caldari 8lack Wing
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Posted - 2009.01.20 18:03:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Julia Venatrix Invention is fine. However, it is pretty clear that luck was nerfed with the last patch.
I have this feeling too.
I did mostely modules and rigs, which I mostly had 10-12 success out of 20.
I was very disapointed when I only got 4 Golem BPC out of the 20 runs. This places my cost price for this BPC on a 90 mil (didnot include the interface investment) I wonder how I should compete on the BPC market.
I am getting a bit frustrated.
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Hooded Hauler
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Posted - 2009.01.20 19:46:00 -
[12]
Weekly "omg ccp totally stealth nerfed invention chance last patch, and here is my 4 attempts with 0 success to prove it" thread.....check! |
Bartom Dekkar
Nebula Rasa Holdings Nebula Rasa
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Posted - 2009.01.20 22:19:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Stonie Bandit
I was very disapointed when I only got 4 Golem BPC out of the 20 runs.
Well, considering that T2 BS invention with 5-5-5 skills has a 25% expected success rate, you did pretty good with 20% on your first 20 runs.
If that is disappointing, perhaps you didn't do enough research ahead of time.
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Abigail101
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Posted - 2009.01.21 12:32:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Stonie Bandit
Originally by: Julia Venatrix Invention is fine. However, it is pretty clear that luck was nerfed with the last patch.
I have this feeling too.
I did mostely modules and rigs, which I mostly had 10-12 success out of 20.
I was very disapointed when I only got 4 Golem BPC out of the 20 runs. This places my cost price for this BPC on a 90 mil (didnot include the interface investment) I wonder how I should compete on the BPC market.
I am getting a bit frustrated.
I'd say that your success rate there is pretty good. With skills at 5/5/4 and using collision measurements decryptors my record over the last 160 inventions is around one marauder per batch of 8 inventions done.
You've just got to keep plugging away
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Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2009.01.22 13:22:00 -
[15]
If you search this forum you will see that 'any change on invention' has been asked at least once per week for the last two years. If even a fraction of these were true, the chance to invent by now would be less than 0% (it would start taking items out of your hangar ;) ).
There has been no change, the number of threads asking is the same (actually slightly less) which means that maybe people are finally getting the message that everything is exactly the same as it has been since jump freighters were released. (The only changes ever made to invention were to increase chances / buff decryptor stats !)
Each attempt you have, there is no concept of your past attempts, there is no record of other people's attempts that is checked. It simply generates a random number between 0 and 100. If this number is below your theoretical chance, you succeed, if not, you fail. That's it. Incredibly simple process. If your item only has a 20% base chance, and you use a 0.6x decryptor, that would mean that 88 times out of 100 you will likely fail. You can have a significant number of those in a row, if you like, and there would still be nothing odd. It is less likely you will get all 12 successes in a row though.
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Knobbing Everyone
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Posted - 2009.01.22 14:18:00 -
[16]
Skills at level IV using the 1.2 decryptors, inventing Tech II Cruisers I got:
4 tries, 3 x 2 run bpc's 4 tries, 3 x 2 run bpc's 4 tries, 1 x 2 run bpc 4 tries, 1 x 2 run bpc 4 tries, 1 x 2 run bpc
Go figure...
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Malmagor
Minmatar Advanced Design and Manufacturing
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Posted - 2009.01.23 03:12:00 -
[17]
I'm not sure that the base chance on all frigates or all cruisers is the same. With all of the skills at four I'm getting about half the success rate with assault frigates as I am with covert-ops, electronic attack and interceptors. I don't have enough data to confirm this yet but half seemed to be a big difference. |
War Fairy
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Posted - 2009.01.23 15:58:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Lord Fitz If you search this forum you will see that 'any change on invention' has been asked at least once per week for the last two years. If even a fraction of these were true, the chance to invent by now would be less than 0% (it would start taking items out of your hangar ;) ).
Once a week?! Cool they're slowing down.
People will you please read up on probability. If you have a 99% chance at success it is possible for you to fail every time. Not remotely likely but completly possible.
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Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2009.01.23 17:49:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Malmagor I'm not sure that the base chance on all frigates or all cruisers is the same. With all of the skills at four I'm getting about half the success rate with assault frigates as I am with covert-ops, electronic attack and interceptors. I don't have enough data to confirm this yet but half seemed to be a big difference.
All frigates have a base chance of 30%. I can confirm this by reading the publicly available datadump. All cruisers have a base chance of 25%, BS's 20%. What you are seeing is akin to rolling a green die and a red die, and saying that the green die must have less 6's on it because you didn't roll as many ;) . The game cares not which ship it is, your chance is the same for all of that class, but obviously unless you do thousands of each, you're not going to see them all that close.
Originally by: Knobbing Everyone Skills at level IV using the 1.2 decryptors, inventing Tech II Cruisers I got:
4 tries, 3 x 2 run bpc's 4 tries, 3 x 2 run bpc's 4 tries, 1 x 2 run bpc 4 tries, 1 x 2 run bpc 4 tries, 1 x 2 run bpc
Go figure...
45% success. Base is 25%, + decryptor is 30%. With skills supposedly 36.19%. So yes, for every person below average success there will always be one person above ;)
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B1FF
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Posted - 2009.01.23 18:04:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Lord Fitz So yes, for every person below average success there will always be one person above ;)
If each roll is independant that's not true.
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Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2009.01.24 11:32:00 -
[21]
Edited by: Lord Fitz on 24/01/2009 11:34:47
Originally by: B1FF
Originally by: Lord Fitz So yes, for every person below average success there will always be one person above ;)
If each roll is independant that's not true.
It's statistics. The number above and below average will not be exactly the same all of the time, but it will be very close. Much much closer than any individuals results will be to the average. The same happens as you individually perform more inventions. You can start with above or below average success, but over time, your total success will be getting closer and closer to the real chance.
(in reality for every one person above there may be 1.000000000000001 people below the 'real chance', 5 minutes later it may be the reverse.)
Think of it this way, every time you flip a coin you have a 50/50 chance. For every person in the world that has ever done this and got heads, another has got tails. The coins don't know about each other, and every flip is independent, but there are still just as many people with heads as tails. Give or take a very small number (and tiny percentage) at any instant in time. |
xVx dreadnaught
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Posted - 2009.01.24 16:54:00 -
[22]
I've not actually started doing inventing yet. But like most things I like to look into them before I commit everything and if it is completely based on luck it could prove a problem :(
I think it a tad unfair that all datacores and the BPC are both lost, is it even profit through invention? Cos it seems kinda guff!
Does havin he skill maxed increase chance? Any implants that an be used to improve it? |
Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2009.01.24 17:18:00 -
[23]
Originally by: xVx dreadnaught I've not actually started doing inventing yet. But like most things I like to look into them before I commit everything and if it is completely based on luck it could prove a problem :(
I think it a tad unfair that all datacores and the BPC are both lost, is it even profit through invention? Cos it seems kinda guff!
Does havin he skill maxed increase chance? Any implants that an be used to improve it?
It's not based upon 'luck' it's based upon statistics. If someone told you it cost $10 to role a die, and you would get $100 every time a 6 came up, would you do it ?
You could sit there 10x in a row and get nothing, but eventually over time, you will be guaranteed to make money. I mean you 'could' never roll a 6, but sit down and try it and see what the chance of that is.
Some people will win right away, others will go for longer than they statistically should without succeeding. Invention is designed to be a profession, this means that you do it enough that it will even out, eventually. If you just have a handful of attempts, you could do well, you could do badly. Keep going and you will have a very good idea of where you will end up.
That said, worst possible known case, you plug in the base % chance for that ship/mod/item. And the decryptor stats of the decryptor you are using if any. Work out the invention cost, work out the build cost, work out what you can sell the result for. If this is a worthwhile profit, invent. If not, don't. |
Abigail101
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Posted - 2009.01.24 17:44:00 -
[24]
Originally by: xVx dreadnaught I've not actually started doing inventing yet. But like most things I like to look into them before I commit everything and if it is completely based on luck it could prove a problem :(
I think it a tad unfair that all datacores and the BPC are both lost, is it even profit through invention? Cos it seems kinda guff!
Does havin he skill maxed increase chance? Any implants that an be used to improve it?
My skills were at 4/4/4 for a long time before I bit the bullet (for datacore production purposes primarily) and I am now at 5/5/4. I have not noticed any appreciable difference in invention success rate, but I'm sure there is some improvement - just don't spend ages getting these skills from 4 to 5 if you have other stuff you could better train up.
AFAIK the implant(s) that were supposed to help with invention itself still do not work and this has been something about which CCP has been aware for some time.
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Ikar Kaltin
Amarr Imperial Dreams Curatores Veritatis Alliance
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Posted - 2009.01.24 22:03:00 -
[25]
I think something has changed recently with invention success rates. I know several people who agree to seeing similar trends, I used to have roughly 3-4/7 success rates, this was regular for about 2 months, but the last week or so it has dropped to 0/7 and 1/7. Current count is 4/28.
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Mal Lokrano
Gallente Faulcon de Lazy
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Posted - 2009.01.25 02:24:00 -
[26]
i do invention as a hobby on my alt and i rarly get bpcs out of it. Heck and my alt has the skills all trained to level 4.
All i have invented thus far is an ishtar bpc and a enyo bpc. ____________________________________________ When going to a party with wine, women, and song. Always acertain the vintage of the first two. |
Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2009.01.25 04:12:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Ikar Kaltin Current count is 4/28.
Come back when you have 400 odd results, then you might begin to have something starting to resemble significant. 4/28 is not even slightly significant. 0/28 wouldn't indicate anything had changed either.
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Dak Sagitarum
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Posted - 2009.01.25 13:44:00 -
[28]
I dont think anything has changed with the invention as sometimes your efforts pay off other times they suck.. and suck bad.
I will list my last 3 jobs for T2 battle ships.
10 jobs - 7 x 2 runs 10 jobs - 5 x 2 runs 10 jobs - 1 x 2 runs
As you can see the number seems to go down but when all the previous runs i have done are added up together they seem to level out at a greater percentage I can profit from, and yes it does break your heart when you get 0 bpc's or just 1 like my last lot but like a previous poster said you do need an isk pool there to dip into or an alternative source.
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Malmagor
Minmatar Advanced Design and Manufacturing
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Posted - 2009.01.26 02:17:00 -
[29]
These are my results that I've recorded so far. Again I have skills trained to 4. I understand that I need a lot more data before I get more reliable results. Anyone know much about statistics. :)
Frigate 31/77 (40.26%) Cov-op 7/15 (46.67%) Assault 13/41 (31.71%) Inty 1/2 (50.00%) Electronics A. 10/19 (52.63%)
Destroyer 2/5 (40.00%)
Cruiser 11/45 (24.44%) HAC 6/30 (20.00%) Recon 5/15 (33.33%)
Indy 3/5 (60.00%)
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Dr Sheepbringer
Gallente
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Posted - 2009.01.26 08:16:00 -
[30]
Just did my first and got 2/5 Taranis. |
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