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PaddyPaddy Nihildarnik
Gallente
aurorae pacificas
   |
Posted - 2009.01.28 05:26:00 -
[1]
Edited by: PaddyPaddy Nihildarnik on 28/01/2009 05:30:43
Edited by: PaddyPaddy Nihildarnik on 28/01/2009 05:29:32
EDIT: made pretty.
Warning: Thought this was a short post but ended up with a bit of meat on it afterall.
Ok, I dont normally do the "hey guys- what's up with the *insert item here* prices" type threads but the current increase in the Grav reactors used for caldari t2 production has really baffled me and deserves a bit of a yarn over.
If you look at the jump in the last 2 1/2 mths you will see that not only has the price jumped considerably but that its actually been an unstable rise.
Basing this assumption of the forge region, you can see that mid way through November (and probably in response to the pos reactor exploit/bug announcement) there was a large spike in both volume bought and a corresponding price hike. Nothing unusual there.
The thing that I find interesting is the then sudden price drop back to pre-Nov levels despite the fairly consistent demand beyond obvious manipulation/speculation attempts.
The price then seems to hold for a week or so before spiking to new equalibriums. This "stepping" for the want of a better word appears to occur a couple of times. Looks like we are in such a one now.
Anyhoo the other thing I noticed is that despite volume sales generally being pretty constant the amount of volume for sale is decreasing. I dont have hard numbers on this but atm there is only a dozen or so sell orders in jita for reactors, all of which are over 100k/u.
Does the MD community therefore agree with the following generalised observations.
1. The spike in early/mid November was a manipulation attempt upon hearing news of the POS exploit
2. The following crash was speculators getting out of the market too early upon the assumption that the exploit wasnt that great and that the hike was speculation driven.
3. The consequential rise following this is driven by the changed equation and amount of supply decreasing. Demand appears fairly constant beyond speculation
4. T2 ships (particularly falcon) sales have increased in volume (due to FOTM demands) and in price to reflect the increase in materials.
5. RE: #4- Its safe to assume the majority of falcon/cerb/onyx production is via invention, not t2 bpos (onyx obviously excluded). There is also a rise in t2 frig prices but not proportionally as much for some reason, probably amount of reactors needed.
6. The "stepping" nature of the price increases could be from 'older' bulk sell orders slowly being eaten up. The price stabolises at a new percieved medium only to be exhausted and increase to next bulk order.
7. Given the above, would it be safe to assume that we could actually be seeing a supply issue where Grav reactors will become exceedingly rare/ markets exhausted of supply?
8. If #7 is true this will be increasingly so as market speculators/traders and investors will buy up the remaining supply knowing that demand will consistently require product, yet the supply has become increasingly unrealistic to meet said demand.
9a. Ships will still be produced but the costs will be passed onto consumers, therefore production will remain constant but the price hike could result in t2 cruiser class ships starting to cost back into the 100s of mill again?
OR
9b Competition will slowly die off in production as more and more inventors pursue better returns. Prices on t2 ships increase due to a slight decrease in production supply. This in turn returns market to new equalibrium with reactors going for somewhere around the 70-80k mark as opposed to 100k+
Phew- long post, enjoy the ensuing soapboxing of the MD elite on this.
|
Patty Loveless
Dawn of a new Empire
The Initiative.
|
Posted - 2009.01.28 06:22:00 -
[2]
jesus man... its a game. buy low, sell high. |
PaddyPaddy Nihildarnik
Gallente
aurorae pacificas
|
Posted - 2009.01.28 06:45:00 -
[3]
 Originally by: Patty Loveless
jesus man... its a game. buy low, sell high.
wooh wooh wooh... slow down, egghead. |
Astarte Nosferatu
Abrivianius Manufacturing Corporation
|
Posted - 2009.01.28 12:33:00 -
[4]
Although I am not in the know regarding grav prices, it certainly was a better read then most "hai guyz was up with grav prises" threads that spring up all to often lately. |
Leowen
Industrial Giants
|
Posted - 2009.01.28 12:57:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Patty Loveless
jesus man... its a game. buy low, sell high.
LOL.
Seriously though, I'd say your reasoning is pretty good at least for the initial spike-dip-climb movements. All fairly predictable to be honest on such a high value product, even big-b@lls speculators question themselves if the stakes are high enough.
On the matter of ongoing demand, T2 ship prices are not generally rising proportionate to the cost of build, as they are experiencing a price ceiling of sorts. People will only spend so much on their pew-pew toys and I think we're pretty close to that level now. Unless and until CCP give us some more incentive to pew-pew (make FW something more than a waste of time for example) I don't expect this to change.
Thus inventors will move away, demand on reactors will slip, and the market will find its new supply/demand balance.
On a related note my personal feeling (and I play in these markets quite a bit) is that the ferrogel market rate currently relates pretty well to actual supply/demand dynamics. Fermionic Condensates on the other hand seem too high to me, about 10k/unit too high, and I think there is some hefty manipulation at play. Time will tell...
Leo |
Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
|
Posted - 2009.01.28 13:33:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Patty Loveless
jesus man... its a game. buy low, sell high.
A game? When did they turn Eve into a game?
As I dimly recall, there was some posts about reactors back around the time the exploit got announced. It would make sense that people bought in on the hype and sold off. Doesn't mean that's what happened because I wasn't paying much attention.
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Sentinental
Minmatar
Gordan Freeman Tech III Investment
|
Posted - 2009.01.28 13:50:00 -
[7]
i think the price is a result of speculation. +50% is a good oppertunity to make good money. To bad i was hesitating to act fast enogh. But im not playing that much, so i cant follow the market. I dont know if the montly production was that much affected by the exploit, i dont have the numbers for that. the fact that ccp mentioned it proved to me that there is a major influence. |
Midas Man
Caldari
Dzark Asylum
|
Posted - 2009.01.28 15:10:00 -
[8]
Edited by: Midas Man on 28/01/2009 15:11:31
Edited by: Midas Man on 28/01/2009 15:10:33
Originally by: PaddyPaddy Nihildarnik
6. The "stepping" nature of the price increases could be from 'older' bulk sell orders slowly being eaten up. The price stabolises at a new percieved medium only to be exhausted and increase to next bulk order.
A stepping nature to a price rise usually shows a manipulation, people will buy up more than they sell to create false demand over the course of weeks and slowly step up the price of their sell orders to give customer the illusion of a natural price rise. Once price gets high enough they will start to sell more than they buy and usually spread propegander about how "safe" an investment it is, so the extra supply they create is off loaded to other investers and hopefully delays the crash till they are out. |
PaddyPaddy Nihildarnik
Gallente
aurorae pacificas
|
Posted - 2009.01.31 07:14:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Midas Man
Edited by: Midas Man on 28/01/2009 15:11:31
Edited by: Midas Man on 28/01/2009 15:10:33
Originally by: PaddyPaddy Nihildarnik
6. The "stepping" nature of the price increases could be from 'older' bulk sell orders slowly being eaten up. The price stabolises at a new percieved medium only to be exhausted and increase to next bulk order.
A stepping nature to a price rise usually shows a manipulation, people will buy up more than they sell to create false demand over the course of weeks and slowly step up the price of their sell orders to give customer the illusion of a natural price rise. Once price gets high enough they will start to sell more than they buy and usually spread propegander about how "safe" an investment it is, so the extra supply they create is off loaded to other investers and hopefully delays the crash till they are out.
Thats some pretty interesting info. In a market like forge though with its high volumes, can this really explain a month long manipulation for a nearly 25-30% increase? |
Dreamwalker
|
Posted - 2009.01.31 07:26:00 -
[10]
Originally by: PaddyPaddy Nihildarnik
Thats some pretty interesting info. In a market like forge though with its high volumes, can this really explain a month long manipulation for a nearly 25-30% increase?
How else are you going to move the price of an item but by trying to show it is a nature supply and demand. If you scare builders off or tip your hand you would get killed by builders slowing down or switching and traders bringing in more or releasing stock piles. |
amarrcommander
|
Posted - 2009.01.31 12:03:00 -
[11]
Originally by: PaddyPaddy Nihildarnik
Edited by: PaddyPaddy Nihildarnik on 28/01/2009 05:30:43
Edited by: PaddyPaddy Nihildarnik on 28/01/2009 05:29:32
EDIT: made pretty.
Warning: Thought this was a short post but ended up with a bit of meat on it afterall.
Ok, I dont normally do the "hey guys- what's up with the *insert item here* prices" type threads but the current increase in the Grav reactors used for caldari t2 production has really baffled me and deserves a bit of a yarn over.
If you look at the jump in the last 2 1/2 mths you will see that not only has the price jumped considerably but that its actually been an unstable rise.
Basing this assumption of the forge region, you can see that mid way through November (and probably in response to the pos reactor exploit/bug announcement) there was a large spike in both volume bought and a corresponding price hike. Nothing unusual there.
The thing that I find interesting is the then sudden price drop back to pre-Nov levels despite the fairly consistent demand beyond obvious manipulation/speculation attempts.
The price then seems to hold for a week or so before spiking to new equalibriums. This "stepping" for the want of a better word appears to occur a couple of times. Looks like we are in such a one now.
Anyhoo the other thing I noticed is that despite volume sales generally being pretty constant the amount of volume for sale is decreasing. I dont have hard numbers on this but atm there is only a dozen or so sell orders in jita for reactors, all of which are over 100k/u.
Does the MD community therefore agree with the following generalised observations.
1. The spike in early/mid November was a manipulation attempt upon hearing news of the POS exploit
2. The following crash was speculators getting out of the market too early upon the assumption that the exploit wasnt that great and that the hike was speculation driven.
3. The consequential rise following this is driven by the changed equation and amount of supply decreasing. Demand appears fairly constant beyond speculation
4. T2 ships (particularly falcon) sales have increased in volume (due to FOTM demands) and in price to reflect the increase in materials.
5. RE: #4- Its safe to assume the majority of falcon/cerb/onyx production is via invention, not t2 bpos (onyx obviously excluded). There is also a rise in t2 frig prices but not proportionally as much for some reason, probably amount of reactors needed.
6. The "stepping" nature of the price increases could be from 'older' bulk sell orders slowly being eaten up. The price stabolises at a new percieved medium only to be exhausted and increase to next bulk order.
7. Given the above, would it be safe to assume that we could actually be seeing a supply issue where Grav reactors will become exceedingly rare/ markets exhausted of supply?
8. If #7 is true this will be increasingly so as market speculators/traders and investors will buy up the remaining supply knowing that demand will consistently require product, yet the supply has become increasingly unrealistic to meet said demand.
9a. Ships will still be produced but the costs will be passed onto consumers, therefore production will remain constant but the price hike could result in t2 cruiser class ships starting to cost back into the 100s of mill again?
OR
9b Competition will slowly die off in production as more and more inventors pursue better returns. Prices on t2 ships increase due to a slight decrease in production supply. This in turn returns market to new equalibrium with reactors going for somewhere around the 70-80k mark as opposed to 100k+
Phew- long post, enjoy the ensuing soapboxing of the MD elite on this.
I agree you should just go away. |
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