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FloppieTheBanjoClown
The Skunkworks The Marmite Collective
2324
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:33:00 -
[31] - Quote
Tippia wrote:[quote=Mal Ishos]Same goes for reward: it's entirely possible to measure it objectively. Except that this is a game, and entertainment value is purely subjective. It's pretty much the same argument I've made against people going on and on about "opportunity cost" in Eve: it's an utterly invalid concept in a game. The Skunkworks is recruiting. -áhttps://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=1540711#post1540711 |
Anslo
BHEI Galactic Construction The Unforgiven Alliance
315
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:34:00 -
[32] - Quote
Mal Ishos wrote: That's a lot of words to disagree with me, but you're still wrong.
What you consider rewarding, I may not. What I consider a risk, you may not. For some, the risk and the reward are the same thing. There's also the problem of defining what the actual rewards and the risk are. You can't do that in a video game about internet spaceships. You can try, but you will fail.
Actually she's right, look at my post on page 1.
It can be objective in risk:reward by basic definitions. The RISK of loosing a ship or certain type of ship, versus the REWARD (isk, items, etc). Like she said, effort vs enjoyment is subjective, which is what you're talking about.
But no, generally risk and reward can be calculated by majority agreed definitions. It would take time, but you could methodically categorize different risk and reward values and calculate from there with assigned numbers.
SCIENCE!
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Kahega Amielden
Rifterlings Damu'Khonde
509
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:34:00 -
[33] - Quote
Quote:This isn't a discussion about balance, but rather about simply measuring risk/reward. Some activities with very poor risk/reward can still be balanced via the effort, fun, or other subjective stuff involved (e.g. jumping into Great Wildlands with a new faction fit frigate) .
I suppose you could measure the average ISK/hour of an activity versus the average ISK loss per day due to your **** exploding. |
Paul Oliver
Federal Navy Academy Gallente Federation
735
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:35:00 -
[34] - Quote
Ask this kid how he measures risk vs reward. "Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must undergo the fatigues of supporting it." - Thomas Paine |
Mal Ishos
Red Federation
29
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:38:00 -
[35] - Quote
Anslo wrote:Actually she's right, look at my post on page 1.
It can be objective in risk:reward by basic definitions. The RISK of loosing a ship or certain type of ship, versus the REWARD (isk, items, etc). Like she said, effort vs enjoyment is subjective, which is what you're talking about.
But no, generally risk and reward can be calculated by majority agreed definitions. It would take time, but you could methodically categorize different risk and reward values and calculate from there with assigned numbers.
SCIENCE!
You will not be able to come to a consensus about "the majority agreed definition" of risk or reward in a sandbox concept game. What you consider a risk, I may not. What I consider a reward, you may not. There isn't a black and white area where "Risk" always means how much ISK you will lose based on a particular activity or how much "Reward" you will gain for taking on "Risk". EVE is gray. Very, very gray.
Risks taken and rewards reaped are entirely subjective. |
Karl Hobb
Stellar Ore Refinery and Crematorium
531
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:39:00 -
[36] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Karl Hobb wrote:Not to derail the conversation or anything, but is this supposed to be chock-full with some sort of Euro accent? No. Just ye olde GÇ£false friendsGÇ¥ in action. Makes sense. Just wondering. Nothing Found |
Anslo
BHEI Galactic Construction The Unforgiven Alliance
316
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:41:00 -
[37] - Quote
Mal Ishos wrote:You will not be able to come to a consensus about "the majority agreed definition" of risk or reward in a sandbox concept game.
Sure you can. The majority of people ***** about it all the time. If you REALLY want to get technical, you could send out a survey to the playerbase and determine what the majority consider risk (lost ship, lost time, lost isk, lost implants, etc) versus rewards (kills, isk, trades, friends, system stolen) and figure out which is most important to the player.
Mal Ishos wrote:What you consider a risk, I may not. What I consider a reward, you may not. This isn't a black and white area where "Risk" always means how much ISK you will lose based on a particular activity or how much "Reward" you will gain for taking on "Risk".
No, but that's science for you. Research starts with a grey area and seeks to make it black and white. We do this **** all the time. It's how humanity advances.
Mal Ishos wrote:Risks taken and rewards reaped are entirely subjective.
Again, no, you're wrong. They can be objective as all bloody hell. I do this **** for a living. You can quantify just about anything with the right (and very strict/stringent) data collection criteria.
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Milton Middleson
Rifterlings Damu'Khonde
87
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:42:00 -
[38] - Quote
Mal Ishos wrote:
You will not be able to come to a consensus about "the majority agreed definition" of risk or reward in a sandbox concept game. What you consider a risk, I may not. What I consider a reward, you may not. There isn't a black and white area where "Risk" always means how much ISK you will lose based on a particular activity or how much "Reward" you will gain for taking on "Risk". EVE is gray. Very, very gray.
Risks taken and rewards reaped are entirely subjective.
Except that when people talk about risk vs reward in EVE, they are almost inevitably talking about the risk of losing assets versus the ease of gaining wealth. The fact that you're being contrarian and coming up with alternative ways of defining generally used terms isn't really relevant. |
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
9367
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:42:00 -
[39] - Quote
Mal Ishos wrote:That's a lot of words to disagree with me, but you're still wrong. Let's put it this way: risk has an ISO standard for calculating it objectively. So no, trust me, I'm not wrong on that one. As someone who works in the risk perception field, you can trust me on that one too: it has next to nothing to do with actual risksGǪ
Quote:What you consider rewarding, I may not. What I consider a risk, you may not. GǪand if we measure them, they will come out the same. Again, you're talking about risk (and reward) perception, not risk itself. That's why it's easier to talk about them as effort vs. fun, because then we make that distinction and the subjectivity very explicit. GÇ£If you're not willing to fight for what you have in GëívGëí you don't deserve it, and you will lose it.GÇ¥
Get a good start: newbie skill plan.
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Anslo
BHEI Galactic Construction The Unforgiven Alliance
316
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:47:00 -
[40] - Quote
Tippia are we actually agreeing on something?... |
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Mal Ishos
Red Federation
42
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:50:00 -
[41] - Quote
Anslo wrote:Tippia are we actually agreeing on something?...
It appears you are.
You're "both" wrong, however. |
Bienator II
madmen of the skies
863
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:52:00 -
[42] - Quote
risk is difficult do define in eve terms.
if you do exploration in low with a t3 you have the risk to die in a catecamp if you plex in FW with a 1mil frig and an alpha clone you have the risk to get cought when you fall in sleep but you don't care at all
so lets assume both have the same risk to die its still a huge difference in potential isk loss/reward a eve-style bounty system https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=359105 You fail you fail you fail you fail you fail you fail you fail to jump because you are cloaked |
Anslo
BHEI Galactic Construction The Unforgiven Alliance
316
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:53:00 -
[43] - Quote
Mal Ishos wrote:Anslo wrote:Tippia are we actually agreeing on something?... It appears you are.You're "both" wrong, however.
You're kind of a ****, aren'tcha? You have a clinical/public policy researcher and a very experienced risk assessment specialist, who deal with these kinds of things regularly, explaining to you how it can be done and you still say we're wrong?
It's like trying to argue with a pigeon...or a religious person. |
Josef Djugashvilis
The Scope Gallente Federation
532
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:55:00 -
[44] - Quote
I measure risk in Eve in terms of how much it costs me to play versus the risk of not enjoying my Eve playtime.
Thus far, risk is zero.
This would change by a factor of 100% should any form of 'gold ammo' ever be introduced. You want fries with that? |
Karl Hobb
Stellar Ore Refinery and Crematorium
534
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:56:00 -
[45] - Quote
Anslo wrote:It's like trying to argue with a pigeon...or a religious person. Confirming that this is the GD experience. Nothing Found |
Petrus Blackshell
Rifterlings Damu'Khonde
1487
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:57:00 -
[46] - Quote
Josef Djugashvilis wrote:I measure risk in Eve in terms of how much it costs me to play versus the risk of not enjoying my Eve playtime.
Thus far, risk is zero.
This would change by a factor of 100% should any form of 'gold ammo' ever be introduced. So... still zero? Rifterlings - Small gang low/nullsec combat corp specializing in fast paced combat in frigates and cruisers. US and EU Timezone veterans and newbies alike are welcome to join. Come chat in the "we fly rifters" in-game channel. Free frigates and fittings for members! |
Mal Ishos
Red Federation
42
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:57:00 -
[47] - Quote
Anslo wrote:You have a clinical/public policy researcher and a very experienced risk assessment specialist
Right. |
Jimmy Gunsmythe
Red Federation RvB - RED Federation
149
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Posted - 2012.09.05 17:01:00 -
[48] - Quote
Petrus Blackshell wrote:Jackie Fisher wrote:In a recreational activity shouldn't reward also include 'fun'? It could, but it would throw off the objectivity of the measurement, as everyone has their own way of having fun. How do you measure fun? Is the risk/reward of a miner who trolls his detractors higher than that of one who AFK mines? Let's keep "fun" out of this.
Then you cannot measure risk vs reward, as each person quotient of what they consider fun factors into both the abstract terms of risk and reward. It is the greatest inequality to try to make unequal things equal. |
Karl Hobb
Stellar Ore Refinery and Crematorium
534
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Posted - 2012.09.05 17:03:00 -
[49] - Quote
Mal Ishos wrote:Anslo wrote:You have a clinical/public policy researcher and a very experienced risk assessment specialist Right. Well, their forum posting is certainly on a higher level than yours, so their story is believable. Nothing Found |
Milton Middleson
Rifterlings Damu'Khonde
87
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Posted - 2012.09.05 17:03:00 -
[50] - Quote
Bienator II wrote:risk is difficult do define in eve terms.
if you do exploration in low with a t3 you have the risk to die in a catecamp if you plex in FW with a 1mil frig and an alpha clone you have the risk to get cought when you fall in sleep but you don't care at all
so lets assume both have the same risk to die its still a huge difference in potential isk loss/reward
The solo plexer in FW has a very nice risk to reward ratio on account of the spectacular rewards and trivial-in-comparison risks. Moreover, as mentioned, risk is about what you stand to lose and how likely that is to happen. The solo plexer's risk is very low simply because he puts very little on the line to get his payout, even if he loses every ship he sends out. You could lose a dozen t1 plexing frigates in an hour and still come out far ahead in the black. - On a slightly different tack, I suppose you could argue that every activity in EVE should have the roughly same risk:reward ratio, since a fixed amount of risk should yield a proportional amount of reward (this discounts things like effort and scalability). The difference would lie in the absolute numbers and the precise nature of the risks. |
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Milton Middleson
Rifterlings Damu'Khonde
87
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Posted - 2012.09.05 17:06:00 -
[51] - Quote
Jimmy Gunsmythe wrote:Petrus Blackshell wrote:Jackie Fisher wrote:In a recreational activity shouldn't reward also include 'fun'? It could, but it would throw off the objectivity of the measurement, as everyone has their own way of having fun. How do you measure fun? Is the risk/reward of a miner who trolls his detractors higher than that of one who AFK mines? Let's keep "fun" out of this. Then you cannot measure risk vs reward, as each person quotient of what they consider fun factors into both the abstract terms of risk and reward.
Not really. It just means they might pass over an activity with a superior risk:reward ratio for one less rewarding but more entertaining. E.g. the risk:reward on pvp is pretty terrible. |
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
9368
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Posted - 2012.09.05 17:10:00 -
[52] - Quote
Anslo wrote:Tippia are we actually agreeing on something?... Seems unlikely. On an unrelated note, Lucifer recently invited me to a skiing trip on his backyard slopes.
Now, the fun part about risk perception is how it varies not just with the subject but with the context, and how much of that poor judgement is externally constructed. People are appallingly bad at estimating risk before-hand and even worse after something has happened. The former, for instance, makes people panic far less than Hollywood would have you believe and far less than they really should be doing, but the latter makes the exact same people assume that their entirely rational response to extreme situations is GÇ£panicGÇ¥ because that's what you're supposed to have been doing in such a situation.
GǪand at no point in all of that is the actual risk a factor in determining the behaviour. GÇ£If you're not willing to fight for what you have in GëívGëí you don't deserve it, and you will lose it.GÇ¥
Get a good start: newbie skill plan.
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Gizznitt Malikite
Agony Unleashed Agony Empire
479
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Posted - 2012.09.05 17:12:00 -
[53] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Petrus Blackshell wrote:While this is true, how do you measure (for example) the probability per hour that a Hulk gets ganked? Or, worse, complex probabilities for stuff like the market collapsing on you. The problem with complex probabilities is that hey can be hedged so we go straight into actual-banking business theory on that one; the simple ones don't really allow for that, but on the other hand, they're easy (if you have the data). Since you measure reward in ISK/h, we should aim at having the risk on the same scale, meaning our probability will be measured in losses per hour. If you want to calculate, say, the risk for a Hulk miner being suicide ganked, calculate the number of Hulk-hours spent across all of highsec in a day and the number of Hulk losses across all of highsec in a day. Divide the latter with the former and then divide by 24. We now have our per-hour probability. Then multiply with the cost of a Hulk to get our total risk. e: clarifications.
A couple of thoughts....
While you get a moderately reasonable probability for hulks destroyed per hour, its also hides a lot if important details... And it's the detailed information underneath that really should govern the Risk vs Reward mantra....
To Elaborate: How do you distinguish those that partake in risk mitigating activities from those that don't.... Your hulk example would show the cumulative success rate of suicide gankers on both hulks that tank and hulks that don't tank... but the reality is gankers would scan hulks to find weaker targets and coordinate attacks to maximize their success. Those that practice good mining practices (tanking their hulks, not going afk, have support, etc) are at much lower risk of loss. Essentially, the choices players make have a huge effect on their risks. I'm no actuary, so I really don't know the proper way to distinguish between these categories of risk. However, I fear this simple method of risk assessment will be heavily biased by players that make bad choices.
Basically, I'd like to point out that the Probability of Loss needs to take into account what ingame forms of risk mitigation exist. I would think the most important forms of risk are those that cannot be mitigated, followed by those that require another player to mitigate. Risks that can be mitigated by smart fitting, situational awareness, and by playing smart aren't nearly as legit... Also, I'd like to point out that Cost should also include the time and energy required to setup an endeavor... it's not just the value of ships or modules that can be destroyed...
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Petrus Blackshell
Rifterlings Damu'Khonde
1489
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Posted - 2012.09.05 17:18:00 -
[54] - Quote
The subject of risk assessment is apparently more complicated than I first thought. Fascinating, though. Rifterlings - Small gang low/nullsec combat corp specializing in fast paced combat in frigates and cruisers. US and EU Timezone veterans and newbies alike are welcome to join. Come chat in the "we fly rifters" in-game channel. Free frigates and fittings for members! |
Mal Ishos
Red Federation
42
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Posted - 2012.09.05 17:18:00 -
[55] - Quote
Karl Hobb wrote:Mal Ishos wrote:Anslo wrote:You have a clinical/public policy researcher and a very experienced risk assessment specialist Right. Well, their forum posting is certainly on a higher level than yours, so their story is believable.
More subjectivity. Unless you're referring simply to the number of Posts or Likes one has attained. In which case, LOL. |
Petrus Blackshell
Rifterlings Damu'Khonde
1489
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Posted - 2012.09.05 17:21:00 -
[56] - Quote
Mal Ishos wrote:Unless you're referring simply to the number of Posts or Likes one has attained. In which case, LOL. As someone who has lots of spaceship likes, I am offended that you would diminish their importance. Rifterlings - Small gang low/nullsec combat corp specializing in fast paced combat in frigates and cruisers. US and EU Timezone veterans and newbies alike are welcome to join. Come chat in the "we fly rifters" in-game channel. Free frigates and fittings for members! |
Anslo
BHEI Galactic Construction The Unforgiven Alliance
316
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Posted - 2012.09.05 17:22:00 -
[57] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Anslo wrote:Tippia are we actually agreeing on something?... Seems unlikely.
Aww, and here I thought we found something to bond over :(
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Telegram Sam
Shoot To Thrill.
361
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Posted - 2012.09.05 17:22:00 -
[58] - Quote
Attempting to quantify risk vs. reward isn't some quack idea OP came up with. The finance and insurance industries are constantly trying to develop more accurate mathematical models for "risk management." Zoologists and ethologists are applying game theory (the branch of economics/mathematics) to analyze animals' decision making. And of course many books have been written on risk vs. reward balancing for casino gambling. Current risk vs. reward analysis tools are starting to incorporate fractal geometry ("chaos theory"). And also irrational behavior (where the decision maker chooses to do something that does not maximize his material gain).
Anyway, all of these people would say that OP is making a viable proposition. He defined Reward as isk/hour. What's left now is to define all the possible forms of Risk, and quantify them. A tall order, but it sounds like a great topic for somebody's thesis. "Risk vs. Reward Analysis in an Internet Spaceship Game."
(Personally I think this whole quasi-science of game theory/risk management/predictive analysis is just barking up a rope. It works in a highly controlled environment with narrow parameters, such as a roulette table or a blackjack game. Or even EVE maybe. But for a wide-open system like the world economy, there are just too many unknowns. There's no way a model can incorporate every possible risk, or accurately assign a value to it. That's one reason for the financial collapse of 2007/2008-- excessive reliance on proprietary (and little-understood) market prediction tools.
(Source on all this: The Economist magazine, over a couple of years of reading. They seem to be obsessed about this quantifying and predicting trend). |
Karl Hobb
Stellar Ore Refinery and Crematorium
534
|
Posted - 2012.09.05 17:23:00 -
[59] - Quote
Mal Ishos wrote:More subjectivity. Unless you're referring simply to the number of Posts or Likes one has attained. In which case, LOL. You were arguing for a subjective approach... Nothing Found |
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
9368
|
Posted - 2012.09.05 17:24:00 -
[60] - Quote
Gizznitt Malikite wrote:While you get a moderately reasonable probability for hulks destroyed per hour, its also hides a lot if important details... And it's the detailed information underneath that really should govern the Risk vs Reward mantra....
To Elaborate: How do you distinguish those that partake in risk mitigating activities from those that don't.... Your hulk example would show the cumulative success rate of suicide gankers on both hulks that tank and hulks that don't tank... but the reality is gankers would scan hulks to find weaker targets and coordinate attacks to maximize their success. Those that practice good mining practices (tanking their hulks, not going afk, have support, etc) are at much lower risk of loss. Essentially, the choices players make have a huge effect on their risks. I'm no actuary, so I really don't know the proper way to distinguish between these categories of risk. However, I fear this simple method of risk assessment will be heavily biased by players that make bad choices. In short, you don't. It's all statistics at this point. It answers GÇ£what's the average risk for a highsec Hulk?GÇ¥
Arguably, there's some kind of normal distribution of behaviours, with heavy mitigation going on at one end of the spectrum and repeatedly undocking in a hostile system while wardecced at the other, and with the bulk of them being careless and/or semi-AFK. Then you can try to (probably incorrectly) place yourself on that scale and guesstimate that your risk is probably only a tenth (or whatever) of that of the AFKer and +¦ of the serial-undocker. GÇ£If you're not willing to fight for what you have in GëívGëí you don't deserve it, and you will lose it.GÇ¥
Get a good start: newbie skill plan.
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