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Boomhaur
40
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Posted - 2012.05.07 01:24:00 -
[31] - Quote
Mara Rinn wrote:As some context, I have all three characters on all my accounts trained to farm data cores. The effort involved in collecting the data cores alone ensures that this is not a "passive" income stream. Without the work of wandering around collecting the cores, I wouldn't have them, and thus wouldn't have any income derived from cores.
For each character, I have 5 or 6 agents to talk to. The typical autopilot route to talk to these agents is about 40 jumps long, taking me from one end of New Eden to the other. Thus I'm manually piloting for about 50 minutes. On top of this is the actual interaction with the agent which is relatively minor (start conversation -> buy data cores -> click OK, you're done). But then there's the actual shipping of data cores to a market hub. Nobody pays decent prices in Kador, Tash Murkon or similar arse-end-of-the-universe regions.
So the trip is either done in an Orca or a blockade runner, at-keyboard all the way. There's no sense hauling a few tens of millions of ISK around the cluster in a Mammoth. At the end of this, I'll have about 60-80M ISK worth of data cores. This income compares favourably with L4 missions or hisec grav site mining in terms of ISK/hr. Sure, I can increase the ISK/hr ratio by only collecting the data cores once every three months or so: at the cost of the data cores I'm collecting being out of fashion. Part of the process of making ISK from data cores is listing them on the market and ensuring I get the highest price I can. If I don't, that potential 80M ISK worth of data cores a month becomes more like 50M ISK as my market gets destroyed by FOTM-farmers. Maximising income from data cores is a long-term project, involving another 10-20 minutes a day of reviewing market orders (for which you must be in the appropriate region).
Anyone who thinks data cores are actually passive income has rocks in their head. It's no more passive than running L4s in a Tengu (which is mind numbingly boring compared to mining).
Your doing it wrong if you want it passive, you don't need to haul it yourself. I have research agents myself, what I do is I have either one of my stupidly high EHP ships or assault ship set up to resist most bored suicide gankers (while still being decently fast) who would try it just for the thrill, or jump clone and cheap frig or anything so I can "safely" afk. (use your own descretion on what to do)
Than I just set the course to autopilot to each agent, I collect the datacores and setup a contract to bring them to the nearest trade hub. When they get delivered to the trade hubs I setup another contract to bring them to the main trade hub I want (mainly jita since I'm lazy), found this to be one of the most effective ways as there are generally people who are hauling between trade hubs who want to earn a little extra cash who don't mind bring your goods along if it means a quick buck. (or you can contract straight to your destination 40+ jumps away but I find that takes awhile to be picked up)
So quick recap, make afk travel "safer" for yourself or minimize loss. Secondly don't haul it yourself setup contract for short range trip to trade hub, than long range between trade hubs. I find this works best from my experience, especially with high value or high volume goods.
As for looking at each market, I have alts for that setup in the main markets so it's a quick log on for them and I can see what it is. If not, said alt will be in a shuttle or other frig on quick afk trip to there, not exactly a big deal. When I did my last run for datacores I probably put in over 200 jumps and did almost no work. It require more work for me to run a mission in my NIghthawk than this. |
Tanya Powers
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
1188
|
Posted - 2012.05.07 11:21:00 -
[32] - Quote
Scrapyard Bob wrote:I'm not stocking up, but I'm not cashing out either. Buying on a JIT-basis as I need them.
I really think it's a case of CCP not understanding the datacore market. Is it passive income? Technically yes. But it's not an ISK faucet and the items are only worth what other players will pay for them, which has gotten less and less over the years. So now you have to spend 2-6 weeks grinding up standings, plus 50M ISK in skill books, only to end up with an income source that pays out somewhere around 1.8 datacores/day (if you do not run missions). That works out to a measly 8-15M ISK/mo per agent (30-60 days to earn back your 50M ISK).
Frankly, if CCP has common sense, they won't touch the passive RP/day or the RP cost of datacores at all. That gives the market a baseline supply to feed the growing subscriber base.
Instead they should simply boost supply:
1) Increase the RP reward that you get from doing the daily R&D mission. Boost that payout by 3x-5x and the people who are willing to do the daily missions will end up with the bulk of the reward. It keeps the Research Project Management skill as a viable skill, plus you need the datacore skills in order to talk to the agent.
2) Add the racial engineering datacores to the FW corps LP stores. Maybe you can only buy them if you train the datacore skill to some level. Or set a minimum standing requirement.
3) Add the other datacores to the R&D NPC corp LP stores. If you can currently talk to an R&D agent and get RP in a particular datacore area, then that NPC corp should also sell the datacores of that type. Maybe you can only buy them if you train the datacore skill to some level. Maybe set a minimum standing requirement, or introduce a discount of up to 20% as your standing with the corp gets closer to +10.
Boosting supply means that passive-only earners will end up with less ISK/month, without completely pulling the rug out from under them in an abrupt fashion. You tick off fewer people if you slowly nerf passive R&D farming as an income source then if you simply remove it right off the bat.
They already managed to make PI almost interestingness to painful/tedious awful income if you start comparing invested time/isk/h. Now Datacores, I always laugh when I se that vid where soundwave talks about he's research alts yadayada, thing is that those have low to almost no use (numbers required) and everyone who has alts for this either stockpile those or sell them directly at the lowest price. 30min +/- to go get those datacores 1/month and you're making less isk/h than rate in null.
Sometimes I have hard time understanding how they read those numbers. |
Tom Hagen
Twilight Empire Blazing Angels Alliance
60
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Posted - 2012.05.07 14:01:00 -
[33] - Quote
I cant predict how this will turn out. But I invested in the datacores below 200k. My reasoning is that LP will be used on the Datacores that atm have the highest price, so over time all the datacore will balance out. Approximately 1000 ISK/LP has been a guideline for a long time (or at least used to be). With the current price (havent even checked the numbers my self) 1000LP + 1mil ISK = 5 Datacores, it ends up around 200k each. All of this is subject to changes in the patch and ofc how the dynamic pricing will work, but I guess thats the risk one take.
But this isn't why I posted. I am confused by people who complain about ISK/h or how this is not an passive income.. I can only tell you how it works for me and you guys can tell me if it is passive or not and if I should complain about ISK/h.
On average spread over several accounts and characters I think it was around 2 years since the last time I collected any datacores.
So for 2 years I have done Nothing and now because Soundwave said so, I spent an hour or an hour and a half on each character to collect. Before that I think it was a year or so since I did it.
To me it has been a very nice income, for a in comparison short period of invested time in Skill training and mission running.
If you like, so ofc you can make RP collecting anything but passive. You can even start doing mission for them every day if you like. But I think you have missed what Soundwave refer to as a passive income. And maybe if you were looking for an passive income in RP you have failed to make it one ;-) Most likely the changes isn't meant to screw you over but are aimed at guys like me and apparently Soundwave! |
PC5
Szwadron Frozen Synapse
2
|
Posted - 2012.05.07 17:49:00 -
[34] - Quote
Boys and girls - do your math again. On tier1 FW miltia pays 1k lp + 1m for 5 datacores Tier 2 - 500 lp + 500k isk Tier 3 - (speculation) 250 lp + 250k isk Tier 4 - ? Tier 5 - ?
ATM Amarr Militia is capable to reach Tier2 only with their 20 systems FULLY uprgaded (150k lp investend in EACH hub) Apoc Navy on tier2 costs 500k lp + apoc hull Armag Navy on tier2 costs 300k lp + armag hull Omen Navy on tier2 costs 90k lp + omen hull Slicer - 20klp + tag
Enjoy your math
PICS OR IT DIDINT HAPPEN |
Maria Yumeno
Venomous Cloud Scorned Syndicate
3
|
Posted - 2012.05.07 18:21:00 -
[35] - Quote
PC5 wrote:Boys and girls - do your math again. On tier1 FW miltia pays 1k lp + 1m for 5 datacores Tier 2 - 500 lp + 500k isk Tier 3 - (speculation) 250 lp + 250k isk Tier 4 - ? Tier 5 - ? ATM Amarr Militia is capable to reach Tier2 only with their 20 systems FULLY uprgaded (150k lp investend in EACH hub) Apoc Navy on tier2 costs 500k lp + apoc hull Armag Navy on tier2 costs 300k lp + armag hull Omen Navy on tier2 costs 90k lp + omen hull Slicer - 20klp + tag Enjoy your math PICS OR IT DIDINT HAPPEN
so that basically puts amarr Datacores at a value of 150k-200k each.
Where are the other factions at in comparison to amarr? |
Caecilia Arene
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
3
|
Posted - 2012.05.09 17:47:00 -
[36] - Quote
So, I wonder how the new dev blog of Faction Warfare will affect the datacore prices...
I'm reducing my exposure to these until I better run the numbers and determine the risks. |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
304
|
Posted - 2012.05.09 17:51:00 -
[37] - Quote
With starship core RP costs falling by 33% I almost feel sorry for the saps who bought them up to what are (for starship cores) astronomical prices.
Well, not really. |
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat Working Stiffs
683
|
Posted - 2012.05.09 20:08:00 -
[38] - Quote
Caecilia Arene wrote:So, I wonder how the new dev blog of Faction Warfare will affect the datacore prices...
I'm reducing my exposure to these until I better run the numbers and determine the risks. RP basically halved.
Only Minmatar faction have access to Mechanical Engineering.
My ship datacores were nearly double what I paid before the dev blog.
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Celi Annor
Imperial Shipment Amarr Empire
2
|
Posted - 2012.05.09 20:19:00 -
[39] - Quote
Tekota wrote:Makos Suti wrote:Datacores are 1000LP + 1m isk for 5 Depends how the dynamic pricing works out on live I guess but I'm guessing CCP have a target LP-isk conversion rate in mind to balance around and I'm going to take a wild stab in the dark and say that's 1000isk per LP. Which would mean 400k datacores. Which would make my post #4 above yet another of my string of dodgy predictions :o) (Oh and Celi Annor - I see you've been buying up some of my relisted cores which would suggest you're doing just what you said you were doing on the forum - I thought the accepted forum protocol was to post "omg sell!" before buying :o)
Yep I have a lot of datacore
Not quite sure to offload this many, but if anyones interested in investing 20bil+ let me know |
Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
79
|
Posted - 2012.05.09 21:16:00 -
[40] - Quote
Tom Hagen wrote:I cant predict how this will turn out. But I invested in the datacores below 200k. My reasoning is that LP will be used on the Datacores that atm have the highest price, so over time all the datacore will balance out. Approximately 1000 ISK/LP has been a guideline for a long time (or at least used to be). With the current price (havent even checked the numbers my self) 1000LP + 1mil ISK = 5 Datacores, it ends up around 200k each. All of this is subject to changes in the patch and ofc how the dynamic pricing will work, but I guess thats the risk one take.
But this isn't why I posted. I am confused by people who complain about ISK/h or how this is not an passive income.. I can only tell you how it works for me and you guys can tell me if it is passive or not and if I should complain about ISK/h.
On average spread over several accounts and characters I think it was around 2 years since the last time I collected any datacores.
So for 2 years I have done Nothing and now because Soundwave said so, I spent an hour or an hour and a half on each character to collect. Before that I think it was a year or so since I did it.
To me it has been a very nice income, for a in comparison short period of invested time in Skill training and mission running.
If you like, so ofc you can make RP collecting anything but passive. You can even start doing mission for them every day if you like. But I think you have missed what Soundwave refer to as a passive income. And maybe if you were looking for an passive income in RP you have failed to make it one ;-) Most likely the changes isn't meant to screw you over but are aimed at guys like me and apparently Soundwave!
2 years is a long time so in your case you are closer to passive income but you did say it took you an hour and a half. to get them and sell at market.
If you had say RM trained to 4 and the specific Science skill trained to 4 and had high enough standings to qualify for level 4 agents you'd be picking up about 3000 datacores a year. 6000 in your case. in the past you'd be lucky to be able to have the right type cashed in at over 200k per. ... if you timed the pick up right and didn't pound the market maybe more.. but lets use that as a starting poing.
That would be 600 million a year at 200k, 1.2 billion for your hour and a half..
If that hour and a half were the only concern, yes that would be a damn high isk per hour opportunity ... 800 million isk per hour.
But, you only would have that opportunith to earn at that rate for 4.5 hours on the account per 2 years. Thre are always some lucky breaks over a few years.. and mega focused mision runners etc make some high isk per hour. too although not that high..
In your closer to perfect case scenario you don't quite have a passive income but and incredibly high income per hour for a limmited number of hours.
But I'd question that 1.5 hour.s I'd say the very very minimum you could spend to get an alt up to high standing, pick out agents and spend the same hour and a half you just did at the begining is more like10 to 20 hours per character. There are other upfront costs.
Lets say you would have already had standing on one of your characters on the account, it would be less likely that the average player had high standing on all three (most characters for sale for 10s of billions don't have high enough standing for lvl 4 research agents though) and say 15 hours per character training plus the hour and a half to get it started visiing the agentns.
That would have you dividing by 18 , not 1 1/2 hours an you'd be geting an income of like 66 million isk per hour invested not the 800 million which you wouldn't get till 2 years later. If you combined your first 4 years of accrual with just one pick up in between you'd have gotten the chance of earning 120 million isk per hour for a limit of the 19.5 hours you 'd invested over th 4 years.
Now, if you want to use a longer time frame than 4 years fine.. but the key is there are a lot of hours spent in advance to get a limitted number of hours a year in the future picking them up.
A minor change like capping the number of RP could accrue to 1 years worth would make you just entiteld to 250 million per hour once a year for 1 1/2 half hours even if you ignored the large time commitment intiially put in or figured people would play the game for 20 years and that the initial hours should be amortized to only a 20th of those upfront hours. |
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Arec Bardwin
Perkone Caldari State
382
|
Posted - 2012.05.09 21:34:00 -
[41] - Quote
Well, someone flipped a lot of mech engineering datacores in Jita. Sell up from 250k this morning to 350k (ish) this evening. |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
304
|
Posted - 2012.05.09 21:57:00 -
[42] - Quote
Yeah and if "RP costs are doubling so cores will double" really holds true, they've got a ways to rise as well. But then again, so do a lot of cores. The only ones that are really "at price" by that metric alone are the non-minmatar starship engineering cores. |
Celi Annor
Imperial Shipment Amarr Empire
2
|
Posted - 2012.05.09 23:11:00 -
[43] - Quote
Price Estimates:
Assume most conservative scenario 500 isk/lp and tier 2 sov = 250k a datacore
Most optimistic scenario 1.5k isk/lp tier 1 sov = 800k a datacore
Should see datacores priced 400k-600k
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
306
|
Posted - 2012.05.09 23:31:00 -
[44] - Quote
Celi Annor wrote:Should see datacores priced 400k-600k
Which is supported by every datacore doubling in RP cost from research agents. Mech Eng cores doubling makes them ~460-500k, nicely within that price range. |
Ravenclaw2kk
Blue Republic RvB - BLUE Republic
5
|
Posted - 2012.05.10 02:59:00 -
[45] - Quote
I am glad that i bought my stock a couple of months ago when i first heard of the changes. I'm not sure if prices will double in the long run as along with the nerf to hi-sec agents and so the supply, there will be an additional source of datacores from FW.
We should see a unified cost of datacores from each faction and 250k - 400k ea, even for the stronger factions doesn't sound unreasonable.
I expect with the introduction of Datacores to the FW store, we will see a general increase in prices fof other FW items
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IHaveCandyGetInTheVan69
Angry Mustellid Iron Oxide.
157
|
Posted - 2012.05.10 10:28:00 -
[46] - Quote
It seems clear that datacores will go up in price with the changes (nerfs to supply no real change to demand) however how large do we think the current stock of datacores are, if there are people sat on 10s of thousands will that smooth the curve of the price over a period of a few months? Or will speculation mean the price is almost at its final value on patch day?
I'm thinking a bit of a robotics type scenario whereby people start trying to dump them once the price goes up a just a little bit but the full profits wont come about for maybe 6 months or so. |
Ravenclaw2kk
Blue Republic RvB - BLUE Republic
5
|
Posted - 2012.05.10 11:46:00 -
[47] - Quote
IHaveCandyGetInTheVan69 wrote:It seems clear that datacores will go up in price with the changes (nerfs to supply no real change to demand) however how large do we think the current stock of datacores are, if there are people sat on 10s of thousands will that smooth the curve of the price over a period of a few months? Or will speculation mean the price is almost at its final value on patch day?
I'm thinking a bit of a robotics type scenario whereby people start trying to dump them once the price goes up a just a little bit but the full profits wont come about for maybe 6 months or so.
There are a lot of people with spare isk after the last mineral speculation, i imagine that a lot of those people will start buying in over the weekend and following week, pushing the datacores up and a little beyond their final value.
Not a huge amount of players read the forums, so i assume we won't get everyone cashing their RP and dumping their datacores at once, but i wouldn't be surprised to see a few large sell orders coming in. People not following blogs will really lose out as will people who dump datacores before the effects of inferno can be fully realized.
I also believe some of the more educated T2 inventors/manufactures won't be cashing in and will be setting up large orders early in order to keep themselves in cheap datacores over the next few months. This will further push up the price before the patch.
Ship datacores have already gone up 100% in the last couple of weeks, but i imagine their is still plenty of room for an increase. As you say, with a supply nerf and constant demand prices will go up. With a 50% supply nerf it is quite feasible that datacore prices will increase 200-300%.
The final value really depends on how many datacores are going to be injected by FW and i highly doubt they will be able to make up anything close to the 50% Research agent nerf.
The current amount being produced by eve players and their alts is truly staggering atm, i don;t have any numbers, but you have to understand the whole T2 market is pinned on datacores, if you wanted to work out the total volume of datacores produced you'd have to look at the daily traded volume for every T2 item in game (not including ships) and multiply by a factor of 2. This should give a conservative estimate as to the number of Datacores and i am sure that reducing this value by 1/2 will have massive effects on supply and thus the price.
FW won't be able to make up for the missing volume until more players join. Short/Medium-term, datacores will go through the roof but as more people start joining FW we will see prices steadily come back down and settle a little above where they are now. |
Arec Bardwin
Perkone Caldari State
382
|
Posted - 2012.05.10 19:04:00 -
[48] - Quote
I think you are underestimating FW missioners' ability to grind out LP to use on datacores |
Lord Jita
Lord Jita's Big Gay Corp
30
|
Posted - 2012.05.10 19:29:00 -
[49] - Quote
Arec Bardwin wrote:I think you are underestimating FW missioners' ability to grind out LP to use on datacores
Thats my thought too . i think people expecting these to go up much and busy relisting everything are in for rude awakening.
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Tradelita
Perkone Caldari State
2
|
Posted - 2012.05.10 19:42:00 -
[50] - Quote
Lord Jita wrote:[quote=Arec Bardwin]i think people expecting these to go up much and busy relisting everything are in for rude awakening.
Really? Because I woke up this morning to a ****-ton of my relisted datacores having sold at 40-50% markups. |
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Arec Bardwin
Perkone Caldari State
383
|
Posted - 2012.05.10 19:46:00 -
[51] - Quote
Tradelita wrote:Lord Jita wrote:[quote=Arec Bardwin]i think people expecting these to go up much and busy relisting everything are in for rude awakening. Really? Because I woke up this morning to a ****-ton of my relisted datacores having sold at 40-50% markups. I'm making a killing in profits with relisted datacores as well. We'll see once the fw changes hit on may 20th how the market will respond. Hint: datacores belonging to the lp shop of militias that historically do bad on sov plexing may be well worth investing in, since sov will not be reset
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clixor
Celluloid Gurus
17
|
Posted - 2012.05.10 20:04:00 -
[52] - Quote
IHaveCandyGetInTheVan69 wrote:It seems clear that datacores will go up in price with the changes (nerfs to supply no real change to demand) however how large do we think the current stock of datacores are, if there are people sat on 10s of thousands will that smooth the curve of the price over a period of a few months? Or will speculation mean the price is almost at its final value on patch day?
I'm thinking a bit of a robotics type scenario whereby people start trying to dump them once the price goes up a just a little bit but the full profits wont come about for maybe 6 months or so.
I do think you got a point here. There are quite a few players who have done the grind in the past but never bothered to pickup. Only one 1 char i'm sitting on 500k RP. Multiplied by x number of chars. That's a SHITload of cores.
This will keep price down for a while and preventing the FW peops from converting LP to cores (until prices rise enough again).
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Tradelita
Perkone Caldari State
2
|
Posted - 2012.05.10 20:31:00 -
[53] - Quote
clixor wrote:IHaveCandyGetInTheVan69 wrote:It seems clear that datacores will go up in price with the changes (nerfs to supply no real change to demand) however how large do we think the current stock of datacores are, if there are people sat on 10s of thousands will that smooth the curve of the price over a period of a few months? Or will speculation mean the price is almost at its final value on patch day?
I'm thinking a bit of a robotics type scenario whereby people start trying to dump them once the price goes up a just a little bit but the full profits wont come about for maybe 6 months or so. I do think you got a point here. There are quite a few players who have done the grind in the past but never bothered to pickup. Only one 1 char i'm sitting on 500k RP. Multiplied by x number of chars. That's a SHITload of cores. This will keep price down for a while and preventing the FW peops from converting LP to cores (until prices rise enough again).
No doubt there are a ton of unclaimed RP out there, but doubtless as well is that a large percentage of it will be sitting in accounts belonging to people who don't read forums, dev blogs or patch notes, and will be surprised, or indeed not even notice, the RP cost of their datacores doubling, especially if they haven't cashed in in years.
Then you've got to consider the people who are aware of the changes, but will simply cash out quickly and dump into buy orders. |
Ravenclaw2kk
Blue Republic RvB - BLUE Republic
5
|
Posted - 2012.05.11 00:54:00 -
[54] - Quote
clixor wrote:IHaveCandyGetInTheVan69 wrote:It seems clear that datacores will go up in price with the changes (nerfs to supply no real change to demand) however how large do we think the current stock of datacores are, if there are people sat on 10s of thousands will that smooth the curve of the price over a period of a few months? Or will speculation mean the price is almost at its final value on patch day?
I'm thinking a bit of a robotics type scenario whereby people start trying to dump them once the price goes up a just a little bit but the full profits wont come about for maybe 6 months or so. I do think you got a point here. There are quite a few players who have done the grind in the past but never bothered to pickup. Only one 1 char i'm sitting on 500k RP. Multiplied by x number of chars. That's a SHITload of cores. This will keep price down for a while and preventing the FW peops from converting LP to cores (until prices rise enough again).
I think you are underestimating the weekly volume of datacores consumed. Nanite engineering, which is maybe the least used datacore, sees about 50k datacores bought in the forge, that's 2.5m RP per week just put on the market it doesn't even count orders placed in research agent systems or the volume consumed by inventors cashing in their own RP.
more popular datacores, like mechanical engineering, have 10x that volume in the forge, so that is 25m RP's worth sold in the forge alone. I'm not saying people won't cash in and dump on the market as they will, but when that happens that will be the best opportunity to buy.
As it stands, there will be a severe shortage right after inferno that will last at least a few months untill the FW people get their asses in to gear and start grinding LP to take advantage of the high prices of cores.
Even when they do, i doubt they will be able to make up the missing volume until more people join FW.
Look at the market volume of datacores in the forge and halve that. that is the minimum quantity of datacores that FW will have to inject into the system, the real volume could well be 4x as high as again, you are not counting other trade hubs and systems and you are not counting the people who use thier own RP for invention.
At the end of the day supply is getting a huge nerf and while people cashing in will serve to balance the market somewhat we will still be in for a wild ride as demand will soar pre-patch as inventors start buying up their own stockpile. The lesser collected datacores will go up by the most in the coming weeks followed by a general rise. I predict prices won't settle to a new equilibrium for another 4-6mo. |
PC5
Szwadron Frozen Synapse
11
|
Posted - 2012.05.11 06:37:00 -
[55] - Quote
Little light to your 'investment plans'...
Lets assume i have 2m LPs for exchange in Amarr FW LP store.
Usually ppl will go for ships then conversion ratio isks/lp looks like this:
Scenario where Amarr militia gets only TIER2 (very probable)
Apocalypse Navy Issue 500k LP + Apock Hull + Chip
Lets assume 450m constant sell price.
NAME - ISKs per LP Apoc Tier1310 Apoc Tier2620 Apoc Tier31240 <- Currently status on TQ Apoc Tier42480
Lets look at datacores in Tier2 scenario. Lets assume datacore price 250k isk
NAME - ISKs per LP[/b] Datacore Tier1250 Datacore Tier21500 Datacore Tier34000 Datacore Tier49000
As you can see its more profitable to go for datacores than for ships if datacore price will be around 250k/unit.
Lets say datacore costs 200k isk Datacore Tier10 Datacore Tier21000 Datacore Tier33000 Datacore Tier47000
In 200k/unit scenario conversion isk on tier 2 is still acceptable and ppl will go for it like theyre going for ships with similar conversion ratio - 1000 isk / LP
Things start to look intresting at Tier3 - 3000 isk / LP for datacore costing 200k/unit where conversion ratio is very good and ships get... only 1240 Who smart would go for ships when you can get 3000 for datacores ? :)
Lets assume datacore will be 150k / unit and look at tier3 scenario
Datacore tier1-500 Datacore tier20 Datacore tier32000 Datacore tier43000
To get 1000isk/LP ratio datacore in tier3 would have to sell for 100k/unit
In Tier3 we can still get 2000 isk / LP even if datacore price sill be 150k/unit. Thats good ratio.
Now lets go back to my 2m LPs... for that i can buy on poor tier2 scenario : 2 000 000 LP / 500 LP * 5 = 20 000 datacores I would have to pay in isks : 4000 * 500k = 2b (see isk sink in here from CCP?) I would sell them for 20 000 * 250k = 5b Profit : 5b - 2b = 3b
Now tell me what profit would i get with your cosmic 400k+/unit datacore prices? And look at those bilions which will go for exchanging datacores... Curently if ppl buy ships from LP store they give LPs + Hull = Ship - with datacore scenario CCP creates isk sink for billions of isk. |
Ravenclaw2kk
Blue Republic RvB - BLUE Republic
6
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Posted - 2012.05.11 14:41:00 -
[56] - Quote
PC5 wrote:Little light to your 'investment plans'...
Lets assume i have 2m LPs for exchange in Amarr FW LP store.
Usually ppl will go for ships then conversion ratio isks/lp looks like this:
Scenario where Amarr militia gets only TIER2 (very probable)
Apocalypse Navy Issue 500k LP + Apock Hull + Chip
Lets assume 450m constant sell price.
NAME - ISKs per LP Apoc Tier1310 Apoc Tier2620 Apoc Tier31240 <- Currently status on TQ Apoc Tier42480
Lets look at datacores in Tier2 scenario. Lets assume datacore price 250k isk
NAME - ISKs per LP[/b] Datacore Tier1250 Datacore Tier21500 Datacore Tier34000 Datacore Tier49000
As you can see its more profitable to go for datacores than for ships if datacore price will be around 250k/unit.
Lets say datacore costs 200k isk Datacore Tier10 Datacore Tier21000 Datacore Tier33000 Datacore Tier47000
In 200k/unit scenario conversion isk on tier 2 is still acceptable and ppl will go for it like theyre going for ships with similar conversion ratio - 1000 isk / LP
Things start to look intresting at Tier3 - 3000 isk / LP for datacore costing 200k/unit where conversion ratio is very good and ships get... only 1240 Who smart would go for ships when you can get 3000 for datacores ? :)
Lets assume datacore will be 150k / unit and look at tier3 scenario
Datacore tier1-500 Datacore tier20 Datacore tier32000 Datacore tier43000
To get 1000isk/LP ratio datacore in tier3 would have to sell for 100k/unit
In Tier3 we can still get 2000 isk / LP even if datacore price sill be 150k/unit. Thats good ratio.
Now lets go back to my 2m LPs... for that i can buy on poor tier2 scenario : 2 000 000 LP / 500 LP * 5 = 20 000 datacores I would have to pay in isks : 4000 * 500k = 2b (see isk sink in here from CCP?) I would sell them for 20 000 * 250k = 5b Profit : 5b - 2b = 3b
Now tell me what profit would i get with your cosmic 400k+/unit datacore prices? And look at those bilions which will go for exchanging datacores... Curently if ppl buy ships from LP store they give LPs + Hull = Ship - with datacore scenario CCP creates isk sink for billions of isk.
you are correct that datacores will be very attractive for FW pilots.... nothing new here. THEY WILL AND ARE MEANT TO BE.... yes i shouted, sorry. The real question is whether or not the LP generated thru FW can make up the shortfall produced by the Hi-Sec nerf.
oh, and all FW items will increase in value now they have added an extra "sink" it's not just datacores that you should be investing in.
in addition to this, the ability to upgrade hubs and control systems will certainly dictate and balance datacore prices. it would be a afllacy to assume that all factions will be upgraded to tier 3. |
Arec Bardwin
Perkone Caldari State
388
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Posted - 2012.05.11 15:41:00 -
[57] - Quote
Ravenclaw2kk wrote:The real question is whether or not the LP generated thru FW can make up the shortfall produced by the Hi-Sec nerf. With those isk/lp rates he estimates FW will crawl with farmers. |
PC5
Szwadron Frozen Synapse
11
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Posted - 2012.05.11 17:40:00 -
[58] - Quote
Arec Bardwin wrote:Ravenclaw2kk wrote:The real question is whether or not the LP generated thru FW can make up the shortfall produced by the Hi-Sec nerf. With those isk/lp rates he estimates FW will crawl with farmers.
Its not about farmers - its about what ppl will chose in LP store. Every noob with even 5 LPs knows ships are most common choice. If ppl will hear that its profitable to chose datacores - theyll go for it.
If i remember corectly my quick math those are isk levels where 5 datacores = 1000isk/lp barrier.
Tier1 - 400k isk Tier2 - 200k isk Tier3 -100k isk Tier4 - 50k isk Tier5 - 25k isk
Quick math for Tier2 sov 5 datacores for 500lp + 500k isk. If datacores sells for 200k isk thats 5 x 200k = 1m income 1m - 500k (paid to lp store) = 500k isk / 5 datacores of real profit for player 500 000 isk / 500 LP = 1000 isk / LP
What those numbers mean? If datacore which is sold for example in Amarr FW LP store costs on market more than 200k isk - AND Amarr Militia has sov tier 2 ppl will be dumping tons of datacores to the market from LP store because it will give them more than basic 1000isk/lp ratio.
I would be very careful about investing into datacores. ATM minmatars are capable of achieving at last Tier3 or maybe even Tier4 if they will have motivation. Mechanical enginering datacores costs now 319k/unit in Jita. If you look at my calculations - ppl will be buying those datacores in tons from LP store - because they will have over 2000+ lp/isk ratio.
319k vs 100k (from tier3 scenario)
Who have brain and can count - do the math - figure it out yourself. I wonder for how long prices will stay as they are.
Big conclusion: - prices may go down like rollercoaster and if that wont happen FW ppl will get juicy isks from datacores if prices wont drop - very nice isk sink - win for CCP - profit! |
Ravenclaw2kk
Blue Republic RvB - BLUE Republic
6
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Posted - 2012.05.11 17:45:00 -
[59] - Quote
"Will" being the key word. It will take time for people to upgrade their system and players to join FW. The thing to remember is that not all factions will be at tier 3 at once, so there will be volatility on the markets, you just have to chose what you are going to buy carefully.
Furthermore, if datacore prices start to hit the 2misk/1000lp rate, other FW LP items will increase in price. |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
321
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Posted - 2012.05.11 17:52:00 -
[60] - Quote
"Every noob with even 5 LPs knows ships are most common choice. If ppl will hear that its profitable to chose datacores - theyll go for it. "
Resulting in everything else getting neglected and rising in price until they're attractive options.
There's also the rather entertaining idea of just how much LP will be required to really supply datacores properly, but that's another matter... |
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