RubyPorto
Blue Republic
RvB - BLUE Republic
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Posted - 2012.05.15 03:44:00 -
[1] - Quote
Torneach wrote:Richard Desturned wrote:Torneach wrote:Well, the overconfidence shown in this thread means that if people tried, they could probably dethrone the goons and the rest of the CFC. yes they'd only need a few thousand pilots, a common communications infrastructure, solid timezone coverage with capable FCs across those TZs, a common fleet doctrine, hundreds of supercapitals, hundreds of billions of ISK for ship replacements, capable leadership, diplomatic skill, reliable intel, logistics (not talking about the t2 cruiser) and you know what let's just say that "trying" isn't enough How did Goons get their start in nullsec? Yeah, they just swarmed their enemies with a huge supply of cheap ships. Attrition can win wars too.
A big issue is the way alliance level income and other Sov mechanics have changed since GSF and the current major powers rose to prominence.
When GSF got its start, alliances generally started in lowsec taking R64s which were geographically spread out and difficult to defend (due to the lack of power projection [carriers were rare at this time]). After taking some R64s in Lowsec or NPC null, Alliances could begin to fund an attack on a smaller alliance, taking more R64s and so on and so forth. Eventually an alliance could work its way up into a major power. In addition, the smaller sizes of alliances meant that timezone coverage was harder and it was harder to keep important fights in your primetime (POSes could be kited or mis-stronted). In addition, R64s provided a less concentrated and less valuable income source (each moon was less valuable, but there are more of them).
Currently there is a sharp divide between the 3 kinds of Sov Holding Nullsec alliances.
Tech holding alliances (GSF, PL, etc) have a spectacular income to the point where they can easily replace almost any fleet combat losses, preventing attrition from having meaningful effect on the wallet balance (Tech income is much larger than R64 income ever was). They have also been in place long enough to have enormous capital and supercapital resources.
Renting alliances (SOLAR, old RA, etc) have a similarly spectacular income, but depend on having large tracts of defensible space to rent out, along with continued good PR to keep renters happy. Attrition isn't a problem to these alliances so long as they don't lose too many important, visible battles. These alliances also have enormous capital and supercapital resources, but as their income is more easily disrupted, they will be fielded less often if they start losing battles.
Finally there are Renter alliances. They don't fight. They're not the way to become powerful, but they can cause trouble if they get big enough that they would be difficult to evict (see IRC). So they can disrupt Renting alliances.
Small, upstart alliances can't begin by taking Tech, because each and every moon is valuable enough to launch a stiff defense for it. They can't begin by renting, because they don't have any significant amount of space. Finally, they can't really begin by renting, because people who join renter alliances aren't looking to become spacelords, they just want to rat/mine in peace.
Both Tech and Renter alliances can be disrupted and collapse (NC and RA), but the void will be filled by existing powers rather than small, new ones.
So, without a way to slowly grow and without income sources that are not individually worth defending mightily, new alliances don't really have a way to grow and take space, and while the only way to hurt existing space holders is to win fights (holding the field matters, not the ISK war), the patented Goonswarm Rifters-to-Sovereignty plan no longer works. In addition, while forming an alliance where individuals pay for their combat losses themselves is possible, it's not realistic, even if your morale can handle it, players need time to make money and that takes time away from an offensive campaign.
Mind you, this isn't Goonswarm's fault. It's CCP's fault for ravaging the pooch on the R64 nerf, and CCP's fault for introducing Supercarriers and Titans, assuming that cost can be a balancing factor in a game where Pilots, not materials, are the limiting factor in fleet composition.
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