Tesal
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Posted - 2009.06.20 18:38:00 -
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There are 2 kinds of people in EvE.
1. Those who have lots of isk.
2. Those who do not have lots of isk.
With PLEX those who have isk, give it to those who do not have isk in exchange for game time. The reason prices are going up is because there are a lot of people who have a lot more isk than they can ever spend in their lifetime in this game and want to play for free. When people have an income of 3 or 4 billion per month, I think its not really that much of a difference between 300 and 400 million isk as a cost for PLEX. I think it could go up to 800 million isk and the volume of PLEX sold could remain roughly constant.
What drives down the cost is that people in crisis sell PLEX until they get what they want and need immediately, stuff like dread replacement or insurance cost, carrier replacement, tower purchases and so on. These are mostly big toys for 0.0 living. They will buy as many PLEX as they need to until they get what they want. Once they get moons they don't need to sell PLEX because they now have joined the group of PLEX purchasers.
Also, new wormhole development has gone into decline as far as I can see. People no longer need to buy POS gear or towers. These are the kind of operations often paid for by PLEX I imagine, they are small operators who are cash poor, and are maybe going out of empire for the first time.
The deflationary process can also work in reverse to escalate prices through a feedback loop. Higher PLEX costs equals fewer PLEX sold because people get the isk they need with fewer PLEX sold. For example, if I can replace my carrier with 2 plex instead of 3 PLEX, I stop at 2. Thus the market loses a third PLEX that would have otherwise been sold had prices been lower. A price increase of 30% will decrease Plex volume by 30%, thus escalating the price, and thus reducing volume as a crude example.
PLEX are new still, I am not sure what the balance will be, but I think it will go up and down based on in game crisis demand. If you want to lower PLEX prices, create chaos in 0.0 and bring in lots of new people to 0.0. I think the price of PLEX will only balance when the people who do not have isk are somehow in equilibrium with those who have isk. I think PLEX are worth about 800 million to 1 billion isk each in the middle between patches when demand for new expensive and gotta have "stuff" is low, and maybe 400 to 600 million isk after a patch, with perhaps a lower price if there is major expansion or giant war.
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