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The day when highsec mining became more profitable than nullsec/lowsec mining.

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Takahiro Tanaka Tanaka Stuff and Supplies 2	Posted - 2012.06.29 19:54:00 - [1] - Quote This day was today ... atleast for some people in the northern nullsec regions who only have access to Bistot/Crokite . With current mineral prices in Jita, Scordite is now at 2nd place and more worth than Bistot. So everyone grab your miners and start diggin. Ive heard that the Rokh makes up an excellent mining vessel in times of Hulkageddon Interesting times, discuss ...
qDoctor Strangelove Beware of the Red Fox 29	Posted - 2012.06.29 21:19:00 - [2] - Quote Takahiro Tanaka wrote: This day was today ... atleast for some people in the northern nullsec regions who only have access to Bistot/Crokite . With current mineral prices in Jita, Scordite is now at 2nd place and more worth than Bistot. So everyone grab your miners and start diggin. Ive heard that the Rokh makes up an excellent mining vessel in times of Hulkageddon Interesting times, discuss ... Confirming that even the worste null sec systems now have Ark.
GreenSeed 66	Posted - 2012.06.29 21:21:00 - [3] - Quote hidden belts say hi!
Kalea Hashur Promethium Corp. Army of Dark Shadows 5	Posted - 2012.06.29 21:40:00 - [4] - Quote It's all these Hi-Sec miner parasites ruining the game! I hear Null players are the only real players. I guess current mineral demands in Hi-sec would mean all those elite 0.0 guys will be trucking their minerals into empire to take advantage of those prices, eh? Mmhmm.
Ron Maudieu Federal Navy Academy Gallente Federation 2	Posted - 2012.06.30 04:40:00 - [5] - Quote Scordite... it's the new chicken.
David Cedarbridge Merch Industrial Goonswarm Federation 251	Posted - 2012.07.01 04:18:00 - [6] - Quote Takahiro Tanaka wrote: This day was today ... atleast for some people in the northern nullsec regions who only have access to Bistot/Crokite . With current mineral prices in Jita, Scordite is now at 2nd place and more worth than Bistot. So everyone grab your miners and start diggin. Ive heard that the Rokh makes up an excellent mining vessel in times of Hulkageddon Interesting times, discuss ... confirming that people seriously buy ores instead of processed minerals
Mara Rinn Cosmic Industrial Complex Cosmic Consortium 1578	Posted - 2012.07.01 10:00:00 - [7] - Quote David Cedarbridge wrote: confirming that people seriously buy ores instead of processed minerals Miners aren't going to the market and looking at how much a particular ore is selling for (there are exceptions of course), they are determining the profitability of each particular ore in order to decide which ones to mine. Miners value an ore in terms of ISK per cubic metre. This is because all other things being equal, a mining laser extracts a fixed volume of ore per cycle, regardless of the ore (rounded down to the nearest integer in terms of ore units). Thus you will go to the market, determine the value of minerals (e.g.: using lowest sell, or highest buy), plug those into your spreadsheet which then determines an ISK value per refining batch of an ore, and from there the ISK value of one cubic metre of that ore. Now it just so happens that Tritanium and Pyerite are required in vast quantities, but are not abundant. The ores that carries them (typically, Veldspar and Scordite) are abundant in themselves, but huge volumes of these ores are required to satisfy the demand for those minerals. Thus it falls to the AFK hisec miners to mine those ores since you need thousands of laser-hours to produce the quantities required. The low price of ABC reflects the relatively abundant supply of the minerals contained within (abundant compared to the demand for them, that demand being throttled by some other mineral in the respective mineral basket). A mineral basket is a particular portion of various minerals, as required to manufacture stuff of interest. As a simple example, take the mineral basket represented by a Raven, and convert that to units of ore in which that mineral is most abundant, and then cubic metres of that ore: Tritanium 8,335,395 -> Veldspar (2,775,686) -> 277,569m3 Pyerite 2,084,282 -> Scordite (1,668,428) -> 250,264m3 Mexallon 522,143 -> Plagioclase (679,192) -> 237,717m3 Isogen 130,371 -> Omber (212,330) -> 127,398m3 Nocxium 32,555 -> Hemorphite (38,390) -> 115,170m3 Zydrine 7,766 -> Crokite (2929) -> 46,864m3 Megacyte 2,479 -> Arkonor (1500) -> 24,000m3 Now assuming a moderately skilled, boosted Hulk pilot, you are looking at about 100k m3/hrof ore extraction. Thus to build a Raven you need about 11 hours of mining from a moderately skilled Hulk pilot in a fleet with a mining director. The story gets a bit more complicated though, since most of these ores bear multiple minerals (Veldspar is the only exception). Thus in the process of mining the 2M Pyerite, one will also extract about 4M Tritanium (and extracting the Mexallon from Plagioclse will contribute another 0.5M Tritanium, extracting the Isogen will produce another 130k Tritanium, and so on). Thus Scordite is the bottleneck due to being the largest quantity of ore to be extracted. Note that a large volume of Mexallon is generated by miners attempting to extract Nocxium from Pyroxeres in hisec. If the Nocxium for the raven was supplied entirely by hisec Pyrox miners, about 355k of Mexallon would be sourced from Pyrox too, reducing the quantity of Plagioclase required to 217k units, or about 76k m3. So with the revised ore requirements based on a very simplistic mineral basket for a Raven, here's where we stand with the amount of ore required: Tritanium 8,335,395 -> Veldspar (1.2M) -> 120,000 m3 Pyerite 2,084,282 -> Scordite (1,668,428) -> 250,264 m3 Mexallon 522,143 -> Plagioclase (217k) -> 76,000 m3 Isogen 130,371 -> Omber (212,330) -> 127,398 m3 Nocxium 32,555 -> Pyroxeres (985,528) -> 295,659 m3 Zydrine 7,766 -> Crokite (2929) -> 46,864 m3 Megacyte 2,479 -> Arkonor (1500) -> 24,000 m3 Now the catch is that Nocxium is flooded due to speculation before Escalation/Inferno, and there's a lot of hand-waving associated with various ores here and there. The take-home message is simply this: of all the ores required to be mined to supply the materials for a Raven, one bottleneck is Pyroxeres (assuming all the Nocxium is supplied from hisec miners), but that bottleneck is easily evaded by relying on imports from null sec, low sec or w-space. The other bottleneck is Pyerite which comes from Scordite, which no null sec or w-space miner is going to touch because "ewww, hisec ore." Out there in null sec, there are miners who aren't drawing up spreadsheets of ISK/m3 because "everybody knows" that ABC are the ores to mine in null. So everyone mines ABC. They have been relying on ABC being profitable for so long that they have never bothered to ask the simple question of, "which ore is most profitable right now". Right now, the universe needs about twice as much Scordite to be mined as any other ore. The way the economy signals this need is by allowing higher value buy orders to go unfilled, which means the buy orders get higher in value, which means the price of Pyerite rises until people drop their Kernite/ABC habit and start mining Scordite because it's worth more than any other ore except Arkonor. There are certain to be complicating factors here: for example people with stockpiles of drone poo trying to sell off what they have because its value has dropped and they don't want to be left holding worthless stock. There are people with enough ISK in their wallets that it is conceivable that they are manipulating the Pyerite market. To those of us who are not part of the inner circle of mineral market manipulation cartels, the signals are quite clear: mine Scordite. Close behind Scordite (in hisec) are Veldspar, Plagioclase and Pyroxeres. In the end, miners value ores in terms of ISK/m3, not because they are buying and selling unrefined ore but because they are trying to maximise their ISK/hr. Day 0 advice for new players: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&find=unread&t=77176
Dave stark Martyr's Vengence Test Alliance Please Ignore 101	Posted - 2012.07.01 10:32:00 - [8] - Quote pyerite is being artificially manipulated and is rather erratic right now, i wouldn't put much faith in it. infact all minerals have been erratic lately due to the speculation before inferno. if you have it and it's high, sell it. i wouldn't go out of your way to mine specific minerals though.
Mara Rinn Cosmic Industrial Complex Cosmic Consortium 1581	Posted - 2012.07.01 22:03:00 - [9] - Quote Dave stark wrote: pyerite is being artificially manipulated and is rather erratic right now, i wouldn't put much faith in it. That it is being artificially manipulated is even more reason to mine Scordite. Leave some poor suckers with stockpiles of Pyerite that they will not be able to clear for decades. Day 0 advice for new players: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&find=unread&t=77176
Dave stark Martyr's Vengence Test Alliance Please Ignore 103	Posted - 2012.07.01 22:17:00 - [10] - Quote Mara Rinn wrote: Dave stark wrote: pyerite is being artificially manipulated and is rather erratic right now, i wouldn't put much faith in it. That it is being artificially manipulated is even more reason to mine Scordite. Leave some poor suckers with stockpiles of Pyerite that they will not be able to clear for decades. you won't mine enough of it before it all collapses, i'd wager. if you have the pyerite already then yeah, sell it.

corestwo Goonfleet Investment Banking 545	Posted - 2012.07.01 23:12:00 - [11] - Quote Pyerite (and all low ends, in fact) are driven by a huge lack of supply and I have no reason to believe that their massive supply issues will have changed in the three weeks since I've been able to revise my estimates. I fought the law, and the law won. At least the law is merciful...
Viktor Fyretracker Emminent Terraforming 26	Posted - 2012.07.03 04:38:00 - [12] - Quote I have found in my many years of EVE, that while its sell value is pretty low compared to other minerals, Trit is always a good seller. Everything uses trit so everybody depends on trit. And high sec is up to its eyeballs in veld which is all trit.
corestwo Goonfleet Investment Banking 547	Posted - 2012.07.03 04:42:00 - [13] - Quote And yet trit keeps pushing higher and higher. So much for "up to its eyeballs in veld", huh? .
Droxlyn TOHA Heavy Industries TOHA Conglomerate 86	Posted - 2012.07.03 04:55:00 - [14] - Quote corestwo wrote: And yet trit keeps pushing higher and higher. So much for "up to its eyeballs in veld", huh? Remember, Care Bears are short. ;)
Strrog Caldari Provisions Caldari State 0	Posted - 2012.07.03 07:21:00 - [15] - Quote Interesting analysis! I remember that scordite ore was last desirable type, mining veld was better. So how come scordite is beating veld now consumption changes?
Cheeba Don Macabre Votum Against ALL Authorities 4	Posted - 2012.07.03 10:17:00 - [16] - Quote Strrog wrote: Interesting analysis! I remember that scordite ore was last desirable type, mining veld was better. So how come scordite is beating veld now consumption changes? pyerite is selling over 12iskpu
Dave stark Martyr's Vengence Test Alliance Please Ignore 107	Posted - 2012.07.03 10:29:00 - [17] - Quote corestwo wrote: Pyerite (and all low ends, in fact) are driven by a huge lack of supply and I have no reason to believe that their massive supply issues will have changed in the three weeks since I've been able to revise my estimates. but over the last week pyerite has gone up much faster than the other low-ends, surely them all going up is inevitable but why the sudden jump in pyerite?
Xearal Black Thorne Corporation Black Thorne Alliance 306	Posted - 2012.07.03 14:38:00 - [18] - Quote My guess would be stockpiles.. they dampened the effect on the price of pye for a while as they slinked, but they ran out, now pye is bubbling upwards. The reason those stockpiles existed would be because of lack of veldspar in specific regions. Many miners even the ''smart' ones mine out very locally, not moving around much. Thus, after cleaning out the local belts of veld for instance, they'd start chewing on the scordite for more tritanium. Causing them to build up a pye stockpile they can't get rid of. Now those stockpiles are being drained rapidly because there's not enough high sec miners around to supply the demand for low end minerals. Thus increasing their price. Tritanium was the first to feel this hit, even with massive stockpils and many miners eating veldspar, because of the insane amounts needed for manufacturing new ships and whatnot. Hence it went up.. now Pyerite is next.. mexalon has had it's hit in the crucible expansion, but it might get another hit if things continue as they do now. Maybe even omber with be worth something soon. ;)
Victoria Sin Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation 48	Posted - 2012.07.03 16:28:00 - [19] - Quote I think Veld is better to mine in high-sec than Scord. The reason is simply that there's more and the rocks are larger. Last week I totally deleted around 4 high-sec belts. The rocks that last longest and produced in the end the biggest profit were all Veldspar. When people do these ISK/H calculations there's so much they don't take into account, like the time spent targeting the next rock, or moving to a new field when you've exhausted the existing one.
Droxlyn TOHA Heavy Industries TOHA Conglomerate 86	Posted - 2012.07.03 16:59:00 - [20] - Quote If the rational miner only mined (or only sold) at prices which made all ores they mined equal, you would get this chart: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Av49RIDL-V7zdG5VV1hGdEwxTjR6Q2ltcHU5QjFsUXc#gid=4 Omber, Gneiss, Dark Ochre, and Spodumain are statistically screwed and will never be #1 m3/hour. The other problem for Scordite, there are far less combat missions with Scordite roids than you would think. Veldspar is quite common there. Pyro and Plagio are more likely present than Scordite. It is fun watching the prices chase equilibrium.

Mara Rinn Cosmic Industrial Complex Cosmic Consortium 1616	Posted - 2012.07.03 22:20:00 - [21] - Quote Dave stark wrote: corestwo wrote: Pyerite (and all low ends, in fact) are driven by a huge lack of supply and I have no reason to believe that their massive supply issues will have changed in the three weeks since I've been able to revise my estimates. but over the last week pyerite has gone up much faster than the other low-ends, surely them all going up is inevitable but why the sudden jump in pyerite? corestwo is partially correct: part of the price pressure on Pyerite is due to supply: I head out into the mining belts and people are mining Kernite (because Kernite is what they've mined forever), Pyroxeres (because Pyrox has Nocxium) or other ores in preference to the one which yields the highest ISK/hr. Thus one of the basic assumptions of economics has been violated: miners are not GÇ£rational playersGÇ¥. I look forward to Aryth and corestwo revealing their latest multi-trillion ISK market manipulation effort once this bubble bursts. Their careful analysis and pinpointing of Pyerite as a choke point has no doubt paid off in spades :) Interestingly enough, there were trades yesterday for 5.52 ISK and 98.53 ISK in the Sinq Laison market. Someone's trying to play silly games with the various market sites out there. Day 0 advice for new players: Day 0 Advice for New Players
Victoria Sin Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation 105	Posted - 2012.07.12 13:01:00 - [22] - Quote In null I usually go for specific ores depending on whatever I need to stock up on for production. Dark Ocre is a brilliant ore to mine because it has lots of Nox and you'll get a fair amount of Zyd in there too. In high sec I just clear the entire belt of everything until all that's left is empty space. It's true to say there isn't enough pye out there - that's because there isn't enough scord. The proportion of scord in an average belt is far less than veld, but not so much less than veldas it is in build requirements for things like BS in terms of trit and pye. This mismatch changes its value relative to the other ores.
Block Ukx Forge Laboratories 75	Posted - 2012.07.12 13:43:00 - [23] - Quote Victoria Sin wrote: In high sec I just clear the entire belt of everything until all that's left is empty space. Could you post the m3 of each ore after cleaning out an entire belt in high sec? It would be nice to get some real numbers as a function of region.
Mara Rinn Cosmic Industrial Complex Cosmic Consortium 1618	Posted - 2012.07.13 05:52:00 - [24] - Quote Do you want one, two or three significant digits? Day 0 advice for new players: Day 0 Advice for New Players
Sally Poe Psycho Tech Industries Interstellar Hobos 0	Posted - 2012.07.13 07:20:00 - [25] - Quote when i do break out my miners im far far far to lazy to go belt to belt and cherry pick it I mostly i mostly keep a eye on local eat food bs on TS the last thing i wana do is move a handful accounts around cheery picking ill sit in a belt till its dry then move over. so i wonder though how many miners actually mine for isk/h and not just to mine for the sake of it. if only a small percent of miners are going for pyrite that would further the bottleneck
Dave stark Martyr's Vengence Test Alliance Please Ignore 162	Posted - 2012.07.13 11:27:00 - [26] - Quote i mine for isk/hour, and that means not mining pyerite containing ores.
Paikis Red Federation RvB - RED Federation 65	Posted - 2012.07.13 11:32:00 - [27] - Quote There just isn't enough ore in high sec asteroids to be picky. You strip the whole belt and then move on.
Hans Momaki State War Academy Caldari State 21	Posted - 2012.07.13 15:55:00 - [28] - Quote Dave stark wrote: i mine for isk/hour, and that means not mining pyerite containing ores. So what you say is that you can mine Ark and Merc all the time? Nice1.
Pinstar Colton Sweet Asteroid Acres 167	Posted - 2012.07.13 16:21:00 - [29] - Quote Block Ukx wrote: Victoria Sin wrote: In high sec I just clear the entire belt of everything until all that's left is empty space. Could you post the m3 of each ore after cleaning out an entire belt in high sec? It would be nice to get some real numbers as a function of region. My corp mined out an entire belt in .8 space last night. I do not recall the total M3, but it yielded about 127m in isk. In the cat-and-mouse game that is low sec, there is no shame in learning to be a better mouse.
True Sight Deep Freeze Industries 50	Posted - 2012.07.13 17:15:00 - [30] - Quote Pinstar Colton wrote: My corp mined out an entire belt in .8 space last night. I do not recall the total M3, but it yielded about 127m in isk. How long did that take you in total? Was that gang boosted and how many miners were there? (just wondering on Isk per hour for this)



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