LarcatOfRens
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Posted - 2010.03.20 04:26:00 -
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Edited by: LarcatOfRens on 20/03/2010 04:31:21
 Originally by: InUrJita CheckinUrPrice
^ If insurance remuneration drops, it's logical that plex will change in value, quite possibly by dropping in price significantly as players drop indy alts to focus more on missioning
Look past the short term. After the initial bottom-dropping-out, T1 industry *should* become more profitable. Having a wide selection of available prints will become more important, thus making people holding researched BPOs money via copying. The more dynamic the mineral market is, the more money there is to be made manufacturing, for people who aren't in it solely for insurance "fraud". A static mineral FMV bases on the insurance floor makes it purely a cost shaving/margin squeezing game. Dynamic mineral prices makes it a market position game. Choosing *what* to build becomes the primary determinant of profit, whereas right now it is more based on volume volume volume. Not that volume won't have import, but the more minerals fluctuate, and a dynamic insurance rate should promote that, the more opportunities there will be for producers who respond accordingly. This doesn't even go into the increased possibilities for various forms of arbitrage. As a reproccesor, if they don't nerf loot drops into oblivion, I am salivating at the prospect of a dynamic mineral market. It makes my sector riskier, but increases the prospect for intelligent profit making.
Once again, disclaimer: All of this applies *after* the initial price drop. I'm not entirely sold on the idea that we will be hugely oversupplied, for a variety of reasons, mainly that mineral volumes don't support the claim. There are lots of empty production slots in NPC stations near major hubs. Since these aren't filled constantly, the implication is that, assuming here that minerals are hugely oversupplied, the actual bottleneck for T1 production is character build slots (assuming insurance "fraud profitability at any given time). If minerals are so over supplied, those slots would be full of industries players churning out ships to blow up in a variety of ways. Insurance fraud implied limitless demand. The other assumption being thrown about is huge over supply. If both those things are true, there shouldn't be easily accessible production capacity. More importantly, I highly doubt CCP will drop the floor if oversupply is really as big of an issue as recent posts make it out to be.
The reason I quoted the section I did: People dropping indy alts only occurs if they had those alts purely for insurance "fraud". If they had those alts to build things to sell to people who will use them in other ways, a decent mineral price drop won't bring T1 production to the point of poor profitability.
*Edit* If the nerf the reproc game into oblivion I will cry. And bite my pillow like a little Gallente girl who just met her first Caldari. I'm a rper, apparently.
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