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Are PLEX's going to keep getting more and more expensive?

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Cambarus The Compass Reloaded	Posted - 2010.03.30 16:35:00 - [31] Originally by: Le Skunk Edited by: Le Skunk on 30/03/2010 16:15:24 Originally by: CCP Navigator Originally by: SemiCharmed . PLEX prices are set by the players and there would be no reason for CCP to intervene in any way. Plex prices are at their current levels PRECISELY BECAUSE CCP INTERVENED by ditching the 90 day cards. The effects were immediate. SKUNK It wasn't so much that CCP got rid of the 90day codes as it was that the new 60 day codes cost what the old 90 day ones used to. They simultaneously reduced the supply by setting the bar much higher to get into the plex selling game AND they increased the base costs involved per code. Also on a related and equally comical note: The last price spike I recall seeing in time codes was when CCP announced that they would be tradeable for fanfest tickets. So basically the 2 biggest price spike with regards to GTCs that have happened so far were caused specifically BECAUSE CCP intervened. Not often we get to see someone from CCP (especially someone as well known as navigator) post something so blatantly, not to mention so provably, 100% wrong (now I'm trying to remember which dev/gm it was that suggested fitting medium guns to battleships)
Ashina Sito Gallente Center for Advanced Studies	Posted - 2010.03.30 17:47:00 - [32] Originally by: Cambarus Originally by: Le Skunk Edited by: Le Skunk on 30/03/2010 16:15:24 Originally by: CCP Navigator Originally by: SemiCharmed . PLEX prices are set by the players and there would be no reason for CCP to intervene in any way. Plex prices are at their current levels PRECISELY BECAUSE CCP INTERVENED by ditching the 90 day cards. The effects were immediate. SKUNK It wasn't so much that CCP got rid of the 90day codes as it was that the new 60 day codes cost what the old 90 day ones used to. They simultaneously reduced the supply by setting the bar much higher to get into the plex selling game AND they increased the base costs involved per code. Also on a related and equally comical note: The last price spike I recall seeing in time codes was when CCP announced that they would be trade able for fanfest tickets. So basically the 2 biggest price spike with regards to GTCs that have happened so far were caused specifically BECAUSE CCP intervened. Not often we get to see someone from CCP (especially someone as well known as navigator) post something so blatantly, not to mention so provably, 100% wrong (now I'm trying to remember which dev/gm it was that suggested fitting medium guns to battleships) Hope I have not hit the pyramid cap! CCP does not intervene with PLEX. As you stated the changes in ISK->playtime were do to out of game increases in the cost of that playtime. As to the FanFest price spike, that was a PLAYER caused spike not a CCP caused one. Prices when up because speculators foolishly rushed in and bought PLEX assuming that FanFest was going to cause an increase in demand. This was not the case. THis can be seen with the graph in the PLEX blog form last Summer... Plex Blog Doing a quick and dirty run-though. The Keynote speech at fanfest, it could have had as many as 400 attendees. Lets just use that as a baseline. Lets also assume that every attendee payed for their ticket with PLEX. So... 400 (attendees) x 8 (PLEX) = 3200 PLEX required Volume of PLEX trade in Jita at the time of Fanfest announcement 800 units +/- 30 per day. So, 400 attendees are covered with 4 days of PLEX sales, in Jita. Not Eve wide, just in Jita. Additionally this is every single keynote attendee paying though PLEX. This of course did not happen so the total number consumed was for Fanfest was far less than 3200 units. Add to this that the PLEX Blog graph also shows that Stocks of PLEX increased by roughly 200 units per day at the same time of the PLEX for Fanfest announcement shows that Supply was far greater then the demand. So.... as stated above the PLEX price increase from the Fanfest announcement was driven by speculation, not by demand. The evidence clearly shows this. I said this then, I say it now. As to the current increase in price. All is normal atm. There are always cycles in the prices of things and PLEX is cycling up atm but is still within the reasonable price for PLEX. It will cycle down again. What is currently going on is that some people are trying to build another speculative bubble to make some SIK off the foolish and stupid, just as they did LAST year. The question is will the lemmings fall for it again? I could refute any of the rest of the "PLEX is going to go up" claims but quite honestly I don't want to waste the time. People will believe what they want, not what is true. I only made this post because the whole "PLEX for Fanfest increased prices" thing gets under my skin. Anyway, have fun being manipulated into buying overpriced goods and seeing the floor fall out from under you wile someone else walks away with all your ISK. My CSM post from the last CSM Election Ashina for CSM
Le Skunk Low Sec Liberators	Posted - 2010.03.30 19:17:00 - [33] Originally by: Ashina Sito CCP does not intervene with PLEX. As you stated the changes in ISK->playtime were do to out of game increases in the cost of that playtime. And who increased the prices in the cost of playtime? CCP. Nobody is suggesting that when CCP intervene in the PLEX market - all the Devs go down the lift into the room with no windows, sacrifice a chicken, log on their secret market alts and sneakily buy up all the PLEX with spawned isk. Their intervention can take any form - The biggest and longetst lasting effect on prices of Isk->Gametime transfer since the game began, was the removal of 90 and 30 days timecards - and the reissuing of 60 day timecards for the same price as the 90. This was all CCP. No cyclical markets, no foolish spectators, no rush for war supplies. Just CCP. SKUNK (o)
Kessiaan Minmatar Vagrants Inc	Posted - 2010.03.30 19:21:00 - [34] I would argue that plex are too cheap right now. I can make 300mil in less than 4 hours just doing normal pve stuff. Hell I might start buying 'em, though that would push prices up.
The AEther Caldari Agony Unleashed Agony Empire	Posted - 2010.03.30 20:06:00 - [35] Edited by: The AEther on 30/03/2010 20:09:04 Originally by: Zartrader Bots also have an effect. The more of them the higher the price is likely to be as although they do not generate ISK (except the mission bots) they all buy their game time from PLEX, throwing the market proportion out of alignment. I do not know if this is relevant now though. ^^ this When CCP banned a whole lot of macros laster summer, PLEX prices took a nice dive. Observing what's been happening with the CNR and other loyalty point items and how their prices are going lower and lower, I'd assume that at least the mission running bots are multiplying again. All of their accounts get paid for by PLEXes so when their numbers rise, PLEXes go up in price as well. For those of you saying PLEXes are so cheap right now, remember back to the time when we had GTCs in game and the 30 day codes sold for 150 million ISK while 90 day codes went for 350-450 mil. On the background of this, ISK buyers were really getting top ISK for their $$ even when PLEXes were at 250 mil a piece. Agony Unleashed - zero blues 0.0 pvp, pvp classes
Zofran	Posted - 2010.03.30 23:08:00 - [36] Already shed all my alts because the game is boring atm, I expect a lot of sellers are also finding it slow and as such not requiring income means not selling PLEX/GTC. An easy way to see the health of eve is to look at the character prices... hurrrrr
Ashina Sito Gallente Center for Advanced Studies	Posted - 2010.03.30 23:24:00 - [37] Originally by: The AEther Edited by: The AEther on 30/03/2010 20:09:04 Originally by: Zartrader Bots also have an effect. The more of them the higher the price is likely to be as although they do not generate ISK (except the mission bots) they all buy their game time from PLEX, throwing the market proportion out of alignment. I do not know if this is relevant now though. ^^ this When CCP banned a whole lot of macros laster summer, PLEX prices took a nice dive. Observing what's been happening with the CNR and other loyalty point items and how their prices are going lower and lower, I'd assume that at least the mission running bots are multiplying again. All of their accounts get paid for by PLEXes so when their numbers rise, PLEXes go up in price as well. For those of you saying PLEXes are so cheap right now, remember back to the time when we had GTCs in game and the 30 day codes sold for 150 million ISK while 90 day codes went for 350-450 mil. On the background of this, ISK buyers were really getting top ISK for their $$ even when PLEXes were at 250 mil a piece. Not quite right. PLEX had fallen almost 10% in the 10 days before Unholy Rage. Granted the 10 days following PLEX did fall by about 20%. This in Jita btw. The PLEX blog demonstrated that creation of PLEX outstripped consumption more often then not since PLEX were introduced. There was an oversupply of PLEX. Unholy Rage merely pulled the rug out of the PLEX manipulators who were already standing in a elevator in free fall. Interestingly enough the PLEX blog also disproves another assumption that people have about PLEX. That more people buy them to be used when an expansion comes so they can start up alt accounts. If you look at the PLEX Blog again you see that one of the biggest bumps in PLEX supply comes about a week after Apocrypha was introduced, without a corresponding spike in consumption ether before or after the expansion. It took a month and a half for consumption to catch up with creation, after Apocrypha. Then you have a stretch where stored, used and created PLEX are roughly on par. Then you hit Unholy Rage and the stored supplies went though the roof. Without CCP giving us another blog to tell us what is going on with PLEX usage we are left in the dark. Following the blog from last year you see that speculation has a greater impact then RMT macros. Even so if RMT accounts are on the rise as you suggest then a slight bump of 20-30 million or so would be expected do to increased usage by RMT accounts. Still a larger shift then that would be coming from the speculative side not the consumption side. Time will tell I guess. My CSM post from the last CSM Election Ashina for CSM
Zartrader	Posted - 2010.03.31 00:49:00 - [38] Originally by: Le Skunk Originally by: Ashina Sito CCP does not intervene with PLEX. As you stated the changes in ISK->playtime were do to out of game increases in the cost of that playtime. And who increased the prices in the cost of playtime? CCP. Nobody is suggesting that when CCP intervene in the PLEX market - all the Devs go down the lift into the room with no windows, sacrifice a chicken, log on their secret market alts and sneakily buy up all the PLEX with spawned isk. Their intervention can take any form - The biggest and longetst lasting effect on prices of Isk->Gametime transfer since the game began, was the removal of 90 and 30 days timecards - and the reissuing of 60 day timecards for the same price as the 90. This was all CCP. No cyclical markets, no foolish spectators, no rush for war supplies. Just CCP. SKUNK So what? Do you seriously think a company should be tied by its pricing decisions permanently because of an ingame item? No company in it's right mind would allow that. Plex reflects the companies prices which are set due to a lot more complex considerations than plex. The value of plex reflects that as it should. That is nothing to do with CCP deliberately affecting the plex prices at all. That's like saying no company should ever change its prices. Try running a business doing that, see how far you get.
Rakshasa Taisab Caldari Sane Industries Inc. Initiative Mercenaries	Posted - 2010.03.31 00:56:00 - [39] Originally by: Cambarus Not often we get to see someone from CCP (especially someone as well known as navigator) post something so blatantly, not to mention so provably, 100% wrong (now I'm trying to remember which dev/gm it was that suggested fitting medium guns to battleships) There's nothing wrong with what CCP Navigator said. The changes CCP made has affected the price point at which PLEXes are being sold, they have however _NOT_ effected the current price point. That is all up to the players themselves.
Zartrader	Posted - 2010.03.31 00:58:00 - [40] Edited by: Zartrader on 31/03/2010 01:01:48 Originally by: Ashina Sito Originally by: The AEther Edited by: The AEther on 30/03/2010 20:09:04 Originally by: Zartrader Bots also have an effect. The more of them the higher the price is likely to be as although they do not generate ISK (except the mission bots) they all buy their game time from PLEX, throwing the market proportion out of alignment. I do not know if this is relevant now though. ^^ this When CCP banned a whole lot of macros laster summer, PLEX prices took a nice dive. Observing what's been happening with the CNR and other loyalty point items and how their prices are going lower and lower, I'd assume that at least the mission running bots are multiplying again. All of their accounts get paid for by PLEXes so when their numbers rise, PLEXes go up in price as well. For those of you saying PLEXes are so cheap right now, remember back to the time when we had GTCs in game and the 30 day codes sold for 150 million ISK while 90 day codes went for 350-450 mil. On the background of this, ISK buyers were really getting top ISK for their $$ even when PLEXes were at 250 mil a piece. Not quite right. PLEX had fallen almost 10% in the 10 days before Unholy Rage. Granted the 10 days following PLEX did fall by about 20%. This in Jita btw. The PLEX blog demonstrated that creation of PLEX outstripped consumption more often then not since PLEX were introduced. There was an oversupply of PLEX. Unholy Rage merely pulled the rug out of the PLEX manipulators who were already standing in a elevator in free fall. Interestingly enough the PLEX blog also disproves another assumption that people have about PLEX. That more people buy them to be used when an expansion comes so they can start up alt accounts. If you look at the PLEX Blog again you see that one of the biggest bumps in PLEX supply comes about a week after Apocrypha was introduced, without a corresponding spike in consumption ether before or after the expansion. It took a month and a half for consumption to catch up with creation, after Apocrypha. Then you have a stretch where stored, used and created PLEX are roughly on par. Then you hit Unholy Rage and the stored supplies went though the roof. Without CCP giving us another blog to tell us what is going on with PLEX usage we are left in the dark. Following the blog from last year you see that speculation has a greater impact then RMT macros. Even so if RMT accounts are on the rise as you suggest then a slight bump of 20-30 million or so would be expected do to increased usage by RMT accounts. Still a larger shift then that would be coming from the speculative side not the consumption side. Time will tell I guess. Yes speculation does seem to be rife with plexes when you look over a longer time period, I assume because its seen as safe, you can always convert it to time. I think the speculators are wrong, it is not safe but that will not stop players thinking it is because there is always two uses for it (convert to ISK or apply to account) The current increase is actually very modest and well within simple 'noise' factors you get in any free market. You would need a much bigger increase before a trend and cause of it could be established with any confidence. With the changes announced in the recent dev blog to minerals I do hope Bots do not rise though. Not least as I hate cheats.
Sokratesz Rionnag Alba Against ALL Authorities	Posted - 2010.03.31 07:36:00 - [41] Edited by: Sokratesz on 31/03/2010 07:36:28 Originally by: Reem Fairchild Originally by: Sokratesz price elasticity What about it? Two words, officer mods. The price level for the average consumer good (t1/t2) stuff may not have changed much (although best named definitely varies a lot as CCP makes balancing changes), but officer mods have suffered tremendous inflation over the past years. That's because the people who have enough money buy them anyway regardless of price, which could never happen if for example a basic T2 mod like the damage control suddenly became 10x more expensive. CSM Iceland meeting minutes - READ THEM :D
Reem Fairchild Minmatar Punic Corp.	Posted - 2010.03.31 10:57:00 - [42] Originally by: Sokratesz Edited by: Sokratesz on 31/03/2010 07:36:28 Originally by: Reem Fairchild Originally by: Sokratesz price elasticity What about it? Two words, officer mods. The price level for the average consumer good (t1/t2) stuff may not have changed much (although best named definitely varies a lot as CCP makes balancing changes), but officer mods have suffered tremendous inflation over the past years. That's because the people who have enough money buy them anyway regardless of price, which could never happen if for example a basic T2 mod like the damage control suddenly became 10x more expensive. Interesting. Now if only it was in any way related to the issue of overall inflation in the Eve economy as a whole or what causes inflation... ----- 'In Eve, as in real life, if you are bored it's your own fault.'
Sokratesz Rionnag Alba Against ALL Authorities	Posted - 2010.03.31 11:15:00 - [43] Edited by: Sokratesz on 31/03/2010 11:14:43 Originally by: Reem Fairchild Interesting. Now if only it was in any way related to the issue of overall inflation in the Eve economy as a whole or what causes inflation... It's part of ISK devaluation, thus it is part of inflation. CSM Iceland meeting minutes - READ THEM :D
Reem Fairchild Minmatar Punic Corp.	Posted - 2010.03.31 17:56:00 - [44] Originally by: Sokratesz Edited by: Sokratesz on 31/03/2010 11:14:43 Originally by: Reem Fairchild Interesting. Now if only it was in any way related to the issue of overall inflation in the Eve economy as a whole or what causes inflation... It's part of ISK devaluation, thus it is part of inflation. The price changes in a few extremely rare items have very, very little to do with inflation. The issue here was that I said it was funny how everyone keeps saying there is inflation in Eve, and yet the years go by and there isn't any significant inflation happening. So, is there (or has there been) much inflation in the Eve economy? Ok, the most common definition of the term is a general rise in the average price levels across the entire economy. Have prices been rising overall across the entire Eve economy? No, they haven't. There's been fluctuations in lots of areas. Some things have gotten more expensive and other things have gotten cheaper, while Some things have gotten cheaper and then more expensive again, and so on... But overall, on average, it's more or less the same. The items you're talking about are a very tiny part of the economy. Just those, on their own, getting more expensive doesn't necessarily mean there is inflation. Just like there being a tiny yellow spot on a large painting that is otherwise mostly blue doesn't mean you can say "that painting is yellow". Still, even though there is no inflation problem in eve, Eve players will keep claiming there is on these forums over and over again. It's almost like the 'Eve is dying' meme. ----- 'In Eve, as in real life, if you are bored it's your own fault.'
masternerdguy Gallente Caldari Naval Reserve	Posted - 2010.03.31 21:00:00 - [45] yes cuz sellers control prices
Sokratesz Rionnag Alba Against ALL Authorities	Posted - 2010.04.01 06:09:00 - [46] Originally by: Reem Fairchild and yet the years go by and there isn't any significant inflation happening. And I'm saying that there very definitely has been a price increase, you're just not buying the right mods. CSM Iceland meeting minutes - READ THEM :D
Bellum Eternus Gallente Death of Virtue MeatSausage EXPRESS	Posted - 2010.04.01 06:58:00 - [47] Originally by: Sokratesz Originally by: Reem Fairchild and yet the years go by and there isn't any significant inflation happening. And I'm saying that there very definitely has been a price increase, you're just not buying the right mods. Sok is correct. Reem doesn't know wtf he's talking about. - Originally by: Bellum Eternus That is the beauty of Eve, it's a crucible in which great minds are formed and the rest are ground to dust. Bellum Eternus Inveniam viam aut faciam.
Reem Fairchild Minmatar Punic Corp.	Posted - 2010.04.01 12:34:00 - [48] Originally by: Sokratesz Originally by: Reem Fairchild and yet the years go by and there isn't any significant inflation happening. And I'm saying that there very definitely has been a price increase, you're just not buying the right mods. Of course, there has been price increases. A lot of them. There has also been price decreases. A lot of those too. What there hasn't been is inflation. ----- 'In Eve, as in real life, if you are bored it's your own fault.'
DigitalCommunist November Corporation	Posted - 2010.04.01 16:31:00 - [49] The value of ISK has been in steady and constant decline since the game launched, with only few short term exceptions. The fact that a lot of things still cost the same has more to do with CCP constantly messing with supply in the face of rising demand. Simply put, the yield of all resource harvesting activities is several times higher than what it used to be. GTC may cost 300m now for 30 days but even when it was around 120mil for 30 days, the time required to gather up that sort of cash is more or less equal. Time is money after all, and right now the time required to grind up for a personal Titan is about the same as the time required to grind for a personal Battleship BPO in early retail. People get motherships with the same time and effort that it took to get a Battleship. Its hard to guage how bad inflation is using high end faction and officer mods, because game changes have shifted both supply and demand dramatically over the years - but even then you can be sure that investing some money into such mods usually yields a return on the investment, whereas dumping it into minerals does not.

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