Originally by: Sturmwolke

---

One thing that bothers me is why Chronotis's blog seems to indicate or imply a mineral shortage that would drive up the price - which could either across the board or towards the high-end .... and players are talking about massive oversupply.

Think about it, for you'll need data on :
a) Total consumed in ships/modules built.
b) Total destroyed in ships/modules.
b) Refined total put into the system from NPC loot.
c) Refined total put into the system from drone loot.
d) Refined total put into the system from ores.

Yes, barring hoarding of mineral stockpile, asset stockpile, manufacturing stock, logistical delays and those destroyed in transit, the above should tell you (more or less) about the moving volume in consumption/supply situation per mineral in a particular timeframe.

Drone loot - the SISI composition changes is meaningless without volume data. You could use the Jita volume to get some figures, but the global ultimate will only come from the refinery records.

NPC loot - blog did not mention any composition changes, so quantifying the reduced frequency in which it drops is almost next to impossible. Nevertheless, you can still get Jita volume data for the top 10 or so T1 M0 favourites for melting.

So back to the topic of mineral oversupply, the final missing piece is the ore refining. Unless the fellows at CCP are total incompetent, I'd at least expect to see a global breakdown total for each ore refined and which region. That'll tell me a few things :

- which ores are being overmined
- its distribution by place and sec status
- which mineral is being oversupplied

Assuming he has all these data at his fingertips, and then some more to account for other misc factors not mentioned above ... WHY is this guy optimistic about not crippling the miner as a profession, especially in view of the insurance changes?

Conclude away!

---