| Pages: 1 [2] 3 :: one page |
|
|
| Author |
Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 0 post(s) |
Clansworth
   |
Posted - 2010.05.14 04:23:00 -
[31]
Really hard to see what is going to happen. There really are two major changes that will be pushing in opposite directions.
Loss of the Insurance based mineral price floor.
Potentially major redistribution of the source of materials. Putting the supply more firmly in the hands of miners will actually cause the market to be more flexible. As demands change, it will be easier for the market supply to react, as miners can more easily shift ores than can missioners. This would have a downward effect, if the man-hours put into mineral gathering stayed the same. However, the fact remains, that most those people who are doing the missions and ratting are doing so partly because they simply wouldn't enjoy mining. If that remains, then the actual man-hours spent gathering minerals will drop, causing the overall supply to drop, pushing prices upwards. Again, though, the significance of all these forces is the unknown, and that is what makes it hard to guesstimate what will happen.
Intel/Nomad |
Venkul Mul
Gallente
|
Posted - 2010.05.14 10:13:00 -
[32]
 Originally by: Mara Rinn
I'm just wondering how increasing the insurance payout for T2 ships constitutes an insurance "nerf". Remember that guy who blew up hundreds of battleships a day, arranged contracts for multiple freighter-loads of minerals, and ended up having very little impact on the market value of minerals? That would indicate to me that while Insurance Exchange is a nice way to make money when the market allows it, the IER isn't the force that is setting the price of minerals.
Originally by: cosmoray
I can't believe after consuming 150B units of Trit alone the market didn't budge, or at least not by much.
You see, you look it from the wrong prospective, what you should consider is that having Cosmoray and several other people using lots of mineral was barely sufficient to keep the value of minerals stable.
Without them buying the minerals and the IER the mineral surplus would have been much larger and the mineral prices would have plummeted down even further.
|
Durnin Stormbrow
|
Posted - 2010.05.14 15:31:00 -
[33]
Originally by: Venkul Mul
You see, you look it from the wrong prospective, what you should consider is that having Cosmoray and several other people using lots of mineral was barely sufficient to keep the value of minerals stable.
Without them buying the minerals and the IER the mineral surplus would have been much larger and the mineral prices would have plummeted down even further.
This is exactly why I got into the IER. I got sick of buying from the secondary mineral market (modules, ore & drone loot), only to have the volume of minerals I was dealing in push down the value of my product. It was easier to keep my profit margin by simply blowing the stuff up, rather than trying to sell it.
|
Letrange
Minmatar
Chaosstorm Corporation
Apoapsis Multiversal Consortium
|
Posted - 2010.05.14 15:44:00 -
[34]
Are we taking into account the fact that tower production and sov structure production will add a new demand for minerals? They make use of Capital Construction Parts...
|
VaMei
Gallente
|
Posted - 2010.05.14 16:01:00 -
[35]
Originally by: Letrange
Are we taking into account the fact that tower production and sov structure production will add a new demand for minerals? They make use of Capital Construction Parts...
If that's the case, then what we may end up with is a market that swings even more wildly with the peace & war in 0.0.
Not a bad thing overall, but mining income will be a pain to predict, and during peace time huge(er) blocks of wealth will be sitting in hangers in the form of mineral stockpiles waiting for the next war. Similar to RL except that IRL, storage capacity isn't unlimited or free.
|
coeira
|
Posted - 2010.05.14 23:29:00 -
[36]
my prediction on whats going to happen with this expansion is that at after the expansion the mineral market will drop all of it. oversupply will still be there.
however i'd predict all the high sec minerals won't drop so much. there price is already very deflated where as the null sec minerals have been sky rocketing with a lot of people hovering up minerals to dump back on the market post patch.
once its all settled down the minerals themselves will find a balance as they drop in price people will stop mining them. miners will always chase the cash. where as in the past they couldn't really affect the price of minerals because they never supplied more then 45-50% of the market in any 1 mineral. hopefully now miners will get a large share of the market thus what they chose to mine will affect the price of minerals more.
that is ofcourse if CCP get the balance right with the nerf. if they do what should happen is a large drop in the mineral price at first followed by a steady rise as the NC-SC war sucks up resources. if they haven't got it right price will drop and stay low because oversupply is still there.
|
Lorkin Desal
Caldari
Lone Star Partners
|
Posted - 2010.05.15 00:00:00 -
[37]
I've sold my mineral stocks in anticipation of tyrannis. I think it far more likely that minerals as a whole, especially the higher ends will drop heavily, then rise to maybe 110% of current price 2 weeks after tyrannis deployment.
|
PaulRPG
Caldari
Macabre Votum
Morsus Mihi
|
Posted - 2010.05.15 02:57:00 -
[38]
Next patch, my money is on low ends dropping in price and high ends rising. Not sure how much by but, with all the drone loot changes, a dynamic insurance system and 0.0 slight mining buffs, atleast mega will rise enough. Although will have to see how the ship market goes with the insurance changes. Just my oppinion ;)
|
Clair Bear
Ursine Research and Production
|
Posted - 2010.05.16 20:05:00 -
[39]
Edited by: Clair Bear on 16/05/2010 20:07:01
Edited by: Clair Bear on 16/05/2010 20:06:26
I've voted with my wallet by liquidating my ginormous mineral mountains (took a few months, even "found" a billion isk worth of strip miners I had completely forgotten about).
Minerals will all crash, hard.
Meta1-4 loot reprocesses into mostly high ends, even though the total mineral value is about half of meta0. People flying marauders will continue to loot battleship wrecks of opportunity (read: those within 20-40km while room still has targets). This should still provide for ample supply.
Now add in active players who will clue in re: .5-2M/hour mining being a waste of electricity and train their mining alts for Ravens, Drakes and Dominixes. End result: still massive amounts of minerals hitting the market, but this time biased towards high ends. And nearly zero demand for end product.
The people arguing against this don't realize just how many *hundreds of trillions* of ISK were being generated by insured battleships. When there is a price differential between a cruiser and a battleship (as opposed to now, where a battleship is much cheaper than a cruiser) you will see fewer of them asploding in "PvP", whether the traditional blob vs gankee or suicide kind. So less demand for hulls and BS-sized modules.
I'm small fry myself and I estimate I produced and popped about 3000 battleships of various flavors. That's roughly three hundred freighterloads of minerals that won't be consumed again by JUST ONE PLAYER. A miner produces about 1/10th of a tier3 battleship per hour. Just my own limited use is removing the need for 30,000 hours of mining by someone.
On the bright side I've sold my two researched BS bpos and look forward to replacing them at well below NPC cost.
And in summary, bigger blobs are the answer. Now what was the question? |
Jamie Banks
Gallente
Wasted and Still Mining
|
Posted - 2010.05.17 03:33:00 -
[40]
No doubt, everyone and their dog is trying to get rid of rokh BPOs
_____________________________
EVE - Everyone vs. Everyone
Join in-game Channel 'Aussies'
Check my Bio in-game for good deals on Invention Packs |
|
|
Bel Arvardan
|
Posted - 2010.05.18 02:31:00 -
[41]
Edited by: Bel Arvardan on 18/05/2010 02:32:03
Minerals and T1 hulls will crash hard.
The old insurance induced fixed lower bound for mineral prices now turns into a variable one. And everyone looking at the fierce competition will soon realize, that there is only one direction for prices.
*edit*
Nocx will be below 40 in July.
*edit*
|
Professor Leech
Transmetropolitan
|
Posted - 2010.05.18 02:59:00 -
[42]
A lot of the effects discussed in this thread will occur and over different timescales. The mineral prices will be a lot more volatile while the insurance system adjusts payout values in a stratified fashion.
I look forward to mining realising its true value to the community.
Originally by: Crawe DeRaven
this thread is obviously going places
|
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.05.25 16:17:00 -
[43]
Somebody picked up on the discussion here and made a thread about that wager we were talking about.
Here are the terms.
Any takers ?
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
|
Steve Thomas
Minmatar
|
Posted - 2010.05.25 22:56:00 -
[44]
Edited by: Steve Thomas on 25/05/2010 22:56:11
Originally by: Akita T
Somebody picked up on the discussion here and made a thread about that wager we were talking about.
Here are the terms.
Any takers ?
Nope
mostly because I have yet to see more than 2 people to try to remotly work out the full ramifications of the changes over time.
*.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.*
a (Long) Guide to Pi
|
Professor Leech
Transmetropolitan
|
Posted - 2010.05.25 23:31:00 -
[45]
Originally by: Steve Thomas
Edited by: Steve Thomas on 25/05/2010 22:56:11
Originally by: Akita T
Somebody picked up on the discussion here and made a thread about that wager we were talking about.
Here are the terms.
Any takers ?
Nope
mostly because I have yet to see more than 2 people to try to remotly work out the full ramifications of the changes over time.
So you're too lazy to work anything out for yourself?
Let's make some assumptions for a quick calculation. You can dispute the assumptions but given that the majority of eve players are lazy sacks of whining dog **** you'll have to live with them.
Lets take minerals with flat demand such as trit, mex or iso. Now if someone is insurance frauding ships they need to buy bulk minerals. The first assumption is that the flat demand is 99% created by fraud.
Next assumption is that a tier 3 bs is being used for fraud (most minerals consumed per explosion).
So lets standardise demand to a rokh.
The minerals with flat demand are using an average of 1000 to 1100 rokh standard units per day.
So without insurance fraud you could have 1000 rokhs worth of minerals not being consumed per day or 30k rokhs worth per month.
Of course assuming that all the mineral consumption in the forge is via fraud is wrong because there are other production lines. However, the actual amount of fraud is somewhere in there. The minerals may be sourced from other resources such as reprocessing.
My prediction is that huge stockpiles of minerals will build up on the market until the price comes down significantly. Though I could be completely wrong because I don't have access to CCP's actual numbers on ship insurance.
Originally by: Crawe DeRaven
this thread is obviously going places
|
captain foivos
|
Posted - 2010.05.26 00:46:00 -
[46]
I won't bet against Akita in that "put your money where your mouth is" because frankly, **** will hit the fan and I'm banking on the assumption that there will be a market panic at the first dip in prices, leading to a mineral price crash within a month or two (suspiciously right about when that bet is called). Then I'm betting that prices will stabilize at a new level, which Akita has as much a chance of predicting as anyone. Either way I win as it is, having wisely invested in assorted items beforehand. Note that I'm not predicting that prices will stabilize at a higher rate than before. I'm betting. Semantic difference, but an important one which Akita would surely miss if I failed to point it out.
Personally, I hope I'm wrong about the crash and I get to see Akita lose a crapload of money. Presumptuous bastards and karma make me really happy.
Fake edit: managed to write that entire post without saying the word "basket". Take note, O Holy Industrialists of the Crystal Balls.
Originally by: CCP Shadow
If you're going to quote me that's great, but it must be something I've actually said. Shadow.
You DID say this |
Steve Thomas
Minmatar
|
Posted - 2010.05.26 00:55:00 -
[47]
Originally by: Professor Leech
Originally by: Steve Thomas
Edited by: Steve Thomas on 25/05/2010 22:56:11
Originally by: Akita T
Somebody picked up on the discussion here and made a thread about that wager we were talking about.
Here are the terms.
Any takers ?
Nope
mostly because I have yet to see more than 2 people to try to remotly work out the full ramifications of the changes over time.
So you're too lazy to work anything out for yourself?
.
Actualy I was counting myself as one of the two
I used some forcasting tools that are out there and used as comparisons the various mineral basket values from other expansions where the tweeked things
one of the problems I ran into is that bluntly I did not know how many ships are destroyed for insurance.
however the biggest overall impact was how frequently they adjust insurance prices, not the number of ships assumed destroyed for the insurance(I ran 40 sets of simulations, ranging from 0 % of ships sold to 99% of ships sold based on Jita volumes paradoxicaly the price stabilisation point only varied by around 30-80 days on thoes modles)
some of the modles I ran showed the prices droping for ALL minerals droping to 0.01 per
others showed the prices of literaly all roid values (A to V) stablising between 1-2 millon/jetcan, others higher (4-5 million per Jetcan)
the big problem is we just cant say for sure at what point a given player will bail out of afk mining because its "not profitable" for them to do so and how many will keep on simply because Isk is Isk.
*.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.*
a (Long) Guide to Pi
|
Merouk Baas
Gallente
|
Posted - 2010.05.26 01:20:00 -
[48]
The mineral supply is not fully within the hands of the miners... well, not high-sec miners, at least. Roids still regenerate based on the number of ships destroyed, I think, and if all the insurance profiteers stop destroying their ships, my guess is that a lot of the belts are going to be empty, soon.
|
Steve Thomas
Minmatar
|
Posted - 2010.05.26 01:41:00 -
[49]
Originally by: Merouk Baas
The mineral supply is not fully within the hands of the miners... well, not high-sec miners, at least. Roids still regenerate based on the number of ships destroyed, I think, and if all the insurance profiteers stop destroying their ships, my guess is that a lot of the belts are going to be empty, soon.
nope, the developers addressed that a long time ago. so unless they changed it drasticaly recently the rate of ship destruction does not matter to the rate of roid spawning
besides mission roids spawn automaticaly and despawn when the mission closes out
as to another point, (TIMO loot) my modles make hash of any other assumption
I could not say what % of TIMO is used as base modules by looters
(meaning that taking them out means they have to be replaced somehow)
what % of modules are melted then sold as minerals
what % of Modules are sold then metled
what % of moduels are sold then "consumed"(thus needing to be replaced by new production
thoes trends balanced at anywhere from 1-2 million/JK average to 20 million JK average at which point you have to ask when you start seeing more people getting into AFK/macromining because its more profitable!
*.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.*
a (Long) Guide to Pi
|
MagicAcid
|
Posted - 2010.05.26 17:06:00 -
[50]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Javajunky
Yeah I'm real hard pressed to believe in a crash in the mineral market.
So, you missed the whole months-long business of "building battleships JUST TO BLOW THEM UP FOR INSURANCE MONEY" going on ?
Or that more than occasionally, ships were selling BELOW 70% of platinum insurance payout on the market ?
That should have been a dead giveaway already to the fact that in the absence of the "price support" of insurance payouts, the price of ships would crash, dragging the price of the aggregate mineral basket down below with them.
Right now, that mineral basket is hovering at around 70% of the "old baseprice". As soon as the insurance rates start to get auto-adjusted to PERFECT BUILD COST AT MINERAL MARKET PRICES instead of the old fixed payout values, there's only one direction the combined mineral basket can possibly go : DOWN.
As for the rest of your post... please, that's baseless wishful thinking. The economist has done at least as much harm as he has done good, and a lot of people would argue that he did more damage than bring in benefits.
Listen to T, I blew up 5% of the forge regions mineral trade volume for insurance for a week, and prices dropped ~2%.
That leads me to believe that a significant amount of minerals were used for insurance, maybe around 10-30%.
now excuse me while I go manipulate all the far out 0.0 regions to 100x Jita prices, so when they recalculate insurance, ravens will pay out 6B isk each in insurance for one month :)
|
|
|
horis hurbunker
|
Posted - 2010.05.27 06:27:00 -
[51]
I am sorry but you all miss the point which is to say ccp is changing things so old ploys wont work and new ones will be invented. also basic econ says that all things will find a balancing point. If the min market crashes then it will burn up all surplus untill prices rise enough for miners to go back out. As long as mission runners get less minerals the better the market for every one. On the same token i think insurance fraud is a hole in the game and i am glad they are fixing. Then again i am a 00 industrialist i never see isk for what I build as it all goes to the corp i just make profit of the extra zydrine and mega. therefor i see this patch as a good thing that will increase the worth of my time as a miner.
lastly on a side note i would like to add that every thing ccp has done in the last half a year is make life easier and richer for small groups. the way you can get cyno blocker hold spcae and make all 00 space richer. now way to off set the cost of 00 through afk mining (both as moon if they re-shuffle them and PI). and the mins were its is will be cheaper for pvp and better returns for lost ships. I think this will have a huge effect on the markets as we see lots more small producers and less mega corp off loading 100+bs at a time
PS sorry for the bed grammer and stuff
|
Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
|
Posted - 2010.05.27 10:59:00 -
[52]
Originally by: Merouk Baas
The mineral supply is not fully within the hands of the miners... well, not high-sec miners, at least. Roids still regenerate based on the number of ships destroyed, I think, and if all the insurance profiteers stop destroying their ships, my guess is that a lot of the belts are going to be empty, soon.
Never happened. Roids did (and may still) regenerate based upon the amount mined in the same constellation. Not destruction, but mining. More mining = more regeneration. It means areas which are not mined slow down their rate of roid growth, preventing them getting ridiculously large.
|
Tisha Salona
|
Posted - 2010.05.28 04:20:00 -
[53]
Originally by: Javajunky
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Javajunky
Yeah I'm real hard pressed to believe in a crash in the mineral market.
So, you missed the whole months-long business of "building battleships JUST TO BLOW THEM UP FOR INSURANCE MONEY" going on ?
Or that more than occasionally, ships were selling BELOW 70% of platinum insurance payout on the market ?
That should have been a dead giveaway already to the fact that in the absence of the "price support" of insurance payouts, the price of ships would crash, dragging the price of the aggregate mineral basket down below with them.
Right now, that mineral basket is hovering at around 70% of the "old baseprice". As soon as the insurance rates start to get auto-adjusted to PERFECT BUILD COST AT MINERAL MARKET PRICES instead of the old fixed payout values, there's only one direction the combined mineral basket can possibly go : DOWN.
As for the rest of your post... please, that's baseless wishful thinking. The economist has done at least as much harm as he has done good, and a lot of people would argue that he did more damage than bring in benefits.
The arrogance of your post is only out done by your ignorance and lack of respect of other peopleÆs opinions. Oddly youÆve changed your opinion as you previously stated it could go either way.
You make assumptions without hard data, care to tell me the how many people were in that business? Care to tell me the exact amount of ships that were blown up? Statistically speaking how much minerals did the activity remove from the market?
Oh well you probably canÆt since you donÆt have all the facts. But blather on with your arrogance, continue to insult or belittle people who respectfully offer a thought or opinion.
I agree. I am a miner of a couple of years. I am no expert but mining has always generated an income that was sufficient and has made me, in my opinion, wealthy. I believe that our knowledge of how the market works, compared to those with hard data and full knowledge of the game mechanics that power the economy, is very weak in comparison. Now player has access to that kind of data.
I believe that a prediction by any player here about the mineral market can be nothing more than a guess. Your guess is as good as any other, so whether minerals go up or down in price, both outcomes are equally possible when you don't understand the mechanisms of the game to the extent that the DEV of Eve does.
My 0.02isk
Safe Flying 
|
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.07.01 00:54:00 -
[54]
Originally by: Tisha Salona
I believe that a prediction by any player here about the mineral market can be nothing more than a guess. Your guess is as good as any other, so whether minerals go up or down in price, both outcomes are equally possible when you don't understand the mechanisms of the game to the extent that the DEV of Eve does.
Originally by: captain foivos
I won't bet against Akita in that "put your money where your mouth is" because frankly, **** will hit the fan and I'm banking on the assumption that there will be a market panic at the first dip in prices, leading to a mineral price crash within a month or two (suspiciously right about when that bet is called). Then I'm betting that prices will stabilize at a new level, which Akita has as much a chance of predicting as anyone.
Hey, what do you know, it wasn't a massive instant crash at some random point in time, but a slow, steady decline (chronological logs).
1 week before patch : Tri 2.66 / Pye 5.98 / Mex 28.17 / Iso 52.04 / Noc 135.19 / Zyd 1,364.88 / Meg 2,901.74
5 weeks after patch : Tri 2.57 / Pye 5.18 / Mex 28.06 / Iso 53.63 / Noc 121.37 / Zyd 1,008.12 / Meg 2,284.77
As you can see, Mex and Iso held relatively steady, most of the rest fluctuated a bit but eventually went down too, while Zydrine and Megacyte crashed the hardest (-26% and -21%, respectively).
And they're all still going downwards, at a slow and relatively steady pace (if anything, Zydrine and Megacyte seem to be slightly accelerating their fall).
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
|
captain foivos
|
Posted - 2010.07.01 01:43:00 -
[55]
Your logic is undeniable.
Originally by: CCP Shadow
If you're going to quote me that's great, but it must be something I've actually said. Shadow.
|
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.07.01 01:55:00 -
[56]
Care to point out where the circle is supposed to start and which some of the points on the circle are supposed to be ?
You are aware that if the so-called "circle" has a radius of zero, it's actually called "a point" ?
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
|
captain foivos
|
Posted - 2010.07.01 02:30:00 -
[57]
Originally by: Akita T
BLAAAARRRGGGGGG
u mad?
Originally by: CCP Shadow
If you're going to quote me that's great, but it must be something I've actually said. Shadow.
|
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.07.01 02:55:00 -
[58]
Originally by: captain foivos
u mad?
Slightly. Then again, noticeably less than you.
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
_
|
captain foivos
|
Posted - 2010.07.01 04:01:00 -
[59]
u mad.
also:
I DOESNT AFRAID OF ANYTHING
Originally by: CCP Shadow
If you're going to quote me that's great, but it must be something I've actually said. Shadow.
|
LHA Tarawa
|
Posted - 2010.07.01 16:24:00 -
[60]
Captain Falvos,
I think you should look up the term "circular reasoning".
Circular reasoning is assuming the conclusion.
A perfect example is:
Everything that has a beginning has a cause.
The universe has a beginning, therefore it has a cause.
In asserting everything that has a beginning has a cause, you are assuming the universe has a cause.
What Akita did was use available data to predict what would happen. He then waited until after the new release, tracked results, and then once the pattern was clear, published the results that showed his prediction (and the prediction of most) to be correct.
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
| Pages: 1 [2] 3 :: one page |
| First page | Previous page | Next page | Last page |