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Be honest with the estimates!

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Author	Thread Statistics \| Show CCP posts - 1 post(s)
Andrea Skye Caldari The Python Cartel. The Jerk Cartel	Posted - 2010.06.29 14:47:00 - [1] Now we all know downtime is needed evil, and I understand that not everything always goes to plan. But.. Whenever there an extended downtime, CCP always seem to keep adding an extra hour or half hour on and its very annoying to come back to your PC expecting to get some EvE time in only to see "Status: Not Accepting Connections!" We can handle the truth! If you think it might take longer, then just say that. I dont mind waiting around however long it takes to fix the servers. Its the crappy estimates as to when the downtime is guna be over that bugs me. Just be honest with us! and when it is up, maybe you can suprise us by actually getting the servers up before the estimated time :D
Your Client	Posted - 2010.06.29 14:49:00 - [2] They do it for the whine
Admiral Tom	Posted - 2010.06.29 14:57:00 - [3] 1. Anxious online players wanting to get online. 2. People that want realistic and honest downtime-times Scenario A (Be honest, and perhaps open servers earlier) Person 2. = happy Person 1. = "omfg couldn't you have said the server would be open earlier then I could have scanned an entire region in that time" Scenario B (Set shortterm goals and extend if needed) Person 1. = "What happened? I sat and spammed the logon key, god damn, 4 minute countdown again" conclusion = annoyance Person 2. = Annoyed Summary, CCP scenario A works better. Be more transparent in what your doing, you have an entire community team working fulltime locking threads about extended downtimes. I bet there won't be as much whine if you just say "well the flux capacitor in the enterprise wont start so we had to reconfigure our networking bla bla bla stuff i dont understand"
Ishina Fel Caldari Independent Coalition	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:01:00 - [4] The thing is, these estimates ARE 100% realistic. They're based on everything they know at the time the estimate is made. That is the definition of 'estimate', by the way: "given the current situation, what is the most likely outcome?" However, the 'current situation' ceases being the current situation the moment anyone actually starts working on deploying the patch. Therefore the estimate is, by its very definition, not reliable. It cannot be made reliable. You can luck out, but more likely you won't. Anyone who ever had to make a plan an implement it, knows that. Of course, CCP could make an estimate that assumes the worst case scenario, including disaster recovery. In that case you would be told "Hi, we will be applying a minor patch this Tuesday. The server should be available again sometime later this week." Would you honestly prefer hearing that? Signature? What signature?
Yahweh Graf	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:02:00 - [5] World Cup is on.
Jade Kitana	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:05:00 - [6] OP needs to buy a clue to what "estimate" actually means.
Phosphorus Palladium	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:05:00 - [7] Originally by: Ishina Fel ... Of course, CCP could make an estimate that assumes the worst case scenario... In that case you would be told "Hi, we will be applying a minor patch this Tuesday. The server should be available again sometime later this week." Would you honestly prefer hearing that? The worst case scenario? That would be more like: "Hi, we will be applying a minor patch this Tuesday. The server will never recover from it. Good bye."
Yuda Mann	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:07:00 - [8] Edited by: Yuda Mann on 29/06/2010 15:07:01 Andrea. This is meant from the bottom of my heart. Get a life. CCP is fixing things. They are patching bugs. They are adding new things. They won't bring the game back up until it's working properly. Please explain how in your sick and twisted world this can be considered "evil" and explain why you would rather have the game come up broken than working.
Phosphorus Palladium	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:07:00 - [9] Originally by: Yahweh Graf World Cup is on. Thnks for the info. Is it realy? /me wonders off to watch TV
Abrazzar	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:09:00 - [10] Welcome to the Games Industry, where a delay can take anywhere from a few seconds to forever and you will never know what it will be when planning it through. -------- All I want is a better mankind.

WarbzUK Minmatar Easy Co. Important Internet Spaceship League	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:10:00 - [11] Originally by: Yuda Mann Edited by: Yuda Mann on 29/06/2010 15:07:01 Andrea. This is meant from the bottom of my heart. Get a life. CCP is fixing things. They are patching bugs. They are adding new things. They won't bring the game back up until it's working properly. Please explain how in your sick and twisted world this can be considered "evil" and explain why you would rather have the game come up broken than working. You just entirely missed the point. She said down time is a necassary evil. Asin, she understands it's needed but it's still 'evil' as in a nuisance.
Yuda Mann	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:12:00 - [12] Fixing problems is a nuisance? Not bringing the game back until it works properly is a nuisance? Seriously? This entitlement thing has really gone too far.
Zelda Wei	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:16:00 - [13] Don't you know anything, a job always expands to fill the estimated time plus 50%. So increasing the estimate just increases the amount of time the job finally takes in the long run.
Yuda Mann	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:18:00 - [14] Fixing problems is a nuisance? Not bringing the game back until it works properly is a nuisance? Seriously? A nuisance would be CCP not fixing problems. A nuisance would be CCP ignoring the bugs they are fixing today. When you don't get your way exactly how you want it, that is not CCP creating a nuisance. That is you being a spoiled brat. This entitlement thing has really gone too far.
Andrea Skye Caldari The Python Cartel. The Jerk Cartel	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:18:00 - [15] Edited by: Andrea Skye on 29/06/2010 15:20:24 Originally by: Jade Kitana OP needs to buy a clue to what "estimate" actually means. I know what estimate means. Its judging something by experience. Every downtime we have EXPERIENCED CCP giving the wrong times and constantly extending it. If the ESTIMATES are always wrong, then either thier not ESTIMATING properly or alot of things go worng down at CCP HQ. And if thats the case. Get a better team to fix it. EDIT: And as i said in the original post. I dont mind downtime. If the server was down for a week i wouldnt care to much if they told us it would be down for a week. Its the dodgy estimates that annoy me.
Ranger 1 Amarr Dynaverse Corporation Sodalitas XX	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:19:00 - [16] Originally by: WarbzUK Originally by: Yuda Mann Edited by: Yuda Mann on 29/06/2010 15:07:01 Andrea. This is meant from the bottom of my heart. Get a life. CCP is fixing things. They are patching bugs. They are adding new things. They won't bring the game back up until it's working properly. Please explain how in your sick and twisted world this can be considered "evil" and explain why you would rather have the game come up broken than working. You just entirely missed the point. She said down time is a necassary evil. Asin, she understands it's needed but it's still 'evil' as in a nuisance. The OP urges CCP to be "honest", implying that somehow they know exactly how long downtime will be and are for reasons unknown are lying about it. Either completely unaware of what the word estimate means, and apparently oblivious to the many times that downtime (both daily and for upgrades) has been done well before the estimated time of completion. There sure are a lot of stupid people in the world. ===== If you go to Za'Ha'Dum I will gank you.

CCP Wrangler	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:19:00 - [17] Calculating how long we need to extend is far from an exact science. We base the initial numbers on past experience and tests, but things may go slower or faster than previously. When we extend there may be an issue that requires us to do something, this something may take between 10 minutes and 30 minutes, roughly. Then we may need to fix something based on the result, but say that if the result is A the fix takes 20 minutes, if the result is B it may take 1 hour. We endeavor to be as accurate as possible in our predictions though. Wrangler Senior Community Manager CCP Hf, EVE Online Contact us If it's stupid but works, it isn't stupid.

Rutger Centemus Dvice Shipyards	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:26:00 - [18] Originally by: CCP Wrangler Calculating how long we need to extend is far from an exact science. We base the initial numbers on past experience and tests, but things may go slower or faster than previously. When we extend there may be an issue that requires us to do something, this something may take between 10 minutes and 30 minutes, roughly. Then we may need to fix something based on the result, but say that if the result is A the fix takes 20 minutes, if the result is B it may take 1 hour. We endeavor to be as accurate as possible in our predictions though. If you're truly basing on past experience, how come you hardly ever get the server up on time? Try to be less accurate in your predictions next time, and add a few hours or a couple of days - given "past experience", that'll probably make the predictions more accurate Originally by: Crumplecorn I prefer launching bathtubs of antimatter at my opponents over pointing an open DVD player at them, even if the bathtubs do miss a lot. So no.
Robdon Baptism oF Fire	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:31:00 - [19] Originally by: CCP Wrangler Calculating how long we need to extend is far from an exact science. We base the initial numbers on past experience and tests, but things may go slower or faster than previously. When we extend there may be an issue that requires us to do something, this something may take between 10 minutes and 30 minutes, roughly. Then we may need to fix something based on the result, but say that if the result is A the fix takes 20 minutes, if the result is B it may take 1 hour. We endeavor to be as accurate as possible in our predictions though. Then you need to get someone else who knows what they are doing! I work for a large telcoms company on a huge system, and yes maybe once a year or so we have to extend out downtimes / patches, but its very rare. You guys don't seem to be able to get 1 patch right. If they are telling you this, rubbish, then they arnt very good at their jobs.
Kami Starrunner	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:31:00 - [20] but to be accurate you must know what you can not know so tac on a couple hours to all your normal patches as to the server move thats why you dont make hamsters replug your connectors...

NeoTheo Dark Materials	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:39:00 - [21] Originally by: CCP Wrangler Calculating how long we need to extend is far from an exact science. We base the initial numbers on past experience and tests, but things may go slower or faster than previously. When we extend there may be an issue that requires us to do something, this something may take between 10 minutes and 30 minutes, roughly. Then we may need to fix something based on the result, but say that if the result is A the fix takes 20 minutes, if the result is B it may take 1 hour. We endeavor to be as accurate as possible in our predictions though. I considered reporting you for trolling ;) problem is you guys are almost always wrong, what happened to the old project specing trick of over estimating? /theo
T'ealk O'Neil	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:42:00 - [22] Originally by: CCP Wrangler Calculating how long we need to extend is far from an exact science. We base the initial numbers on past experience and tests, but things may go slower or faster than previously. When we extend there may be an issue that requires us to do something, this something may take between 10 minutes and 30 minutes, roughly. Then we may need to fix something based on the result, but say that if the result is A the fix takes 20 minutes, if the result is B it may take 1 hour. We endeavor to be as accurate as possible in our predictions though. Given the fact that 90% of your time estimates are wrong, I would suggest taking your estimate and adding 50% for unknowns - at least that will be closer to the truth than your current estimates
Xodd Hil Gallente Trucido Veritas	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:46:00 - [23] Originally by: Robdon Originally by: CCP Wrangler Calculating how long we need to extend is far from an exact science. We base the initial numbers on past experience and tests, but things may go slower or faster than previously. When we extend there may be an issue that requires us to do something, this something may take between 10 minutes and 30 minutes, roughly. Then we may need to fix something based on the result, but say that if the result is A the fix takes 20 minutes, if the result is B it may take 1 hour. We endeavor to be as accurate as possible in our predictions though. Then you need to get someone else who knows what they are doing! I work for a large telcoms company on a huge system, and yes maybe once a year or so we have to extend out downtimes / patches, but its very rare. You guys don't seem to be able to get 1 patch right. If they are telling you this, rubbish, then they arnt very good at their jobs. QFT. Dear Wrangler, you are almost NEVER correct in your estimates. Always expecting to finish before, whereas you finish late. Whoever is making the current estimates should be reprimanded at elast, or fired for good, as he is clearly - and consistently - NOT doing a great job. 60day ETC
Yuda Mann	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:48:00 - [24] Originally by: Xodd Hil Whoever is making the current estimates should be reprimanded at elast, or fired for good, as he is clearly - and consistently - NOT doing a great job. It is seriously disturbing that you think someone should be fired for not being able to predict an unknown future.
Andrea Skye Caldari The Python Cartel. The Jerk Cartel	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:52:00 - [25] Kinda turned into abit of flame war, not what i intended... I love you CCP! You make the best game out there. :D Just better estimates is all i wish for <3
Xodd Hil Gallente Trucido Veritas	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:55:00 - [26] Originally by: Yuda Mann Originally by: Xodd Hil Whoever is making the current estimates should be reprimanded at elast, or fired for good, as he is clearly - and consistently - NOT doing a great job. It is seriously disturbing that you think someone should be fired for not being able to predict an unknown future. As stated by Wrangler before, these times are hardly unknown. He just choses the best case scenario ALWAYS. Regardless of the % possibility of a longer route. 60day ETC
Unity Love Caldari Dissonance Corp	Posted - 2010.06.29 15:58:00 - [27] WRANGLER YOU ARE A BLOODY IDIOT
Yuda Mann	Posted - 2010.06.29 16:05:00 - [28] Why? Why do you need better estimates? Why is it so important that you know exactly when the servers will be up and running? Why is it so important that we ignore a simple fact of reality that sometimes things don't happen the way we want them to? Why is it so damn important that we get exactly what we want exactly the way we want it, and if we don't we're going to raise hell until we do? The universe does not care how you want things. It is going to exist the way it always has. That means sometimes the unexpected happens and there is absolutely no reason whatsoever to get upset by it. Grasp that concept and you'll have much less misery in your life.
Ban Doga	Posted - 2010.06.29 16:10:00 - [29] Originally by: Yuda Mann Why? Why do you need better estimates? Why is it so important that you know exactly when the servers will be up and running? Why is it so important that we ignore a simple fact of reality that sometimes things don't happen the way we want them to? Why is it so damn important that we get exactly what we want exactly the way we want it, and if we don't we're going to raise hell until we do? The universe does not care how you want things. It is going to exist the way it always has. That means sometimes the unexpected happens and there is absolutely no reason whatsoever to get upset by it. Grasp that concept and you'll have much less misery in your life. Will also get much less of what you want. Well maybe you even reached the point of not wanting anything really any more. I bet that's really boring, not being bothered by anything.
Ranger 1 Amarr Dynaverse Corporation Sodalitas XX	Posted - 2010.06.29 16:27:00 - [30] Originally by: Ranger 1 Originally by: WarbzUK Originally by: Yuda Mann Edited by: Yuda Mann on 29/06/2010 15:07:01 Andrea. This is meant from the bottom of my heart. Get a life. CCP is fixing things. They are patching bugs. They are adding new things. They won't bring the game back up until it's working properly. Please explain how in your sick and twisted world this can be considered "evil" and explain why you would rather have the game come up broken than working. You just entirely missed the point. She said down time is a necassary evil. Asin, she understands it's needed but it's still 'evil' as in a nuisance. The OP urges CCP to be "honest", implying that somehow they know exactly how long downtime will be and for reasons unknown are lying about it. Either completely unaware of what the word estimate means, and apparently oblivious to the many times that downtime (both daily and for upgrades) has been done well before the estimated time of completion. There sure are a lot of stupid people in the world. Looks closely at this thread since I posted the above... I rest my case. ===== If you go to Za'Ha'Dum I will gank you.



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WRANGLER YOU ARE A BLOODY IDIOT