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pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2010.07.04 15:58:00 - [1] As people have mentioned, the reason the price is so low is because of stockpiles. However, I think those stockpiles will clear faster than people anticipate. Previously, Forge volume was just one part of GS sales. You could get them from NPCs in many regions and many producers did. Now, Forge is basically the only place to buy (unless you stockpiled and hold them elsewhere for production). A lot more GS were being used per day than pre-Tyrannis Forge volumes indicate. Anyway, if you ignore the past and look at the current state of PI, they're a decent investment, although you really missed the boat if you didn't get them at NPC prices. I got them at NPC prices~
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2010.07.05 02:00:00 - [2] Originally by: Janice Polito Don't worry, dude, PI at this point is worth quite a lot. Guidance systems aren't even close to being the most profitable item out there. Yup, that's exactly it. Even at this evening's prices, GS are very very far from being the most profitable P3. In fact they're one of the worst -- you're better off selling the P2 ingredients than actually making GS. Therefore, smart PI producers will not make them, people that need GS will buy them off the market, and the price will continue to rise until the market has fully equilibrated. GS are still undervalued.
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2010.07.05 16:02:00 - [3] If Dust lets people blow up command centers I am gonna laugh pretty hard; that'd be great.
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2010.07.07 23:59:00 - [4] Why aren't all the ebank guidance system posts in this thread? Still one of the most profitable P3 investments~
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2010.07.08 04:31:00 - [5] Originally by: SencneS I got out of it when they where 5K couldn't be happier, made a fortune, moved onto something else that is actually going somewhere. So on a scale of "1 to ebank" how silly do you feel for cashing out at 5k on an item that has already risen by over another 50%, has a steeply positive price history, and is severely undervalued compared to its ingredients? I'm guessing - "ebank"
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2010.07.08 04:51:00 - [6] Originally by: SencneS Or 8B?? Yeah, that's what I thought.. Oh man, 8b. only 100 more expansions and ebank will be solvent
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2010.07.08 05:00:00 - [7] hey sencnes here you said you made under 1b on GS: "Unlike GS's which I did get in on at the NPC level. The problem is so did everyone else. I'm glad I sold out of my small stock and getting only netted a almost 1B profit while I could because I'll be damned if I had to wait 6 months plus to see a bigger return." http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1349157&page=1#14 but now you're saying you made a lot more than that... wishful thinking? if you didn't make 2.5b off GS I'm guessing you didn't make 8b down the road either. Keep spinning those tales for the ebank investor report...
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2010.07.08 14:41:00 - [8] I stopped posting because I had to sleep, why did sencnes stop posting in this thread? oh, wait, another overnight price doubling
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2010.07.08 15:22:00 - [9] Edited by: pmchem on 08/07/2010 15:22:15 sencnes, I would only believe you had created a spreadsheet if it was hosted on isketch.com The best PI spreadsheet for guiding safe production profits is here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Ar_YTOcXpvb9dGFIdHJlb0VmYXBORWRrcXFkeHNjcWc&hl=en_GB#gid=10 Wyke's from S&I forum. As you can see, producing GS is a stupid loss of isk compared to selling the P2s or producing other P3s, hence ebank should get into it immediately and I'm glad you have planned it out. Also goons are too lazy to manipulate markets overnight hope that helps.
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2010.07.08 16:24:00 - [10] Originally by: SencneS besides I'm building more profitable items with these planets anyway. Just if I wanted to I could build GS's So after all this you admit everyone else is right and that building GS is such a dumb thing to do, even ebank isn't doing it. Nice gem buried there.
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2010.07.08 17:01:00 - [11] Originally by: SencneS Since you missed the point, what I was showing you is this is how much a single player with 4 planets can make if they choose to produce GS's... Not many will at the moment, because there are better items out there. And we come full circle with sencnes making the argument for us that people aren't producing GS and shouldn't be producing GS, and therefore their price has nowhere to go but up. Thanks!!
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2010.07.08 19:01:00 - [12] If only you knew how to properly value assets, ebank may be solvent. Anyone doing PI should use Wyke's sheet (or their own) instead. Link again: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Ar_YTOcXpvb9dGFIdHJlb0VmYXBORWRrcXFkeHNjcWc&hl=en_GB#gid=10 I mean, sencnes thinks he can melt down T2 drones and get robotics and GS from them: Quote: Personally I look forward to that day, because market lag happen and is still happening and I'm having a BLAST melting down T2 mods and drones that are selling cheaper then what I sell to Jita buy order the materials I get form melting them. EASY M-O-N-E-Y! Quote: I've even melted down some T2 drones because of Robotics being priced enough to make that profitable" You really, really do not want to base investment or production on his advice.
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2010.07.09 18:55:00 - [13] Originally by: SencneS You can thank Kieselguhr Kid for derailing the thread the first time, RAW23 for derailing it the second Can I please get an honorable mention for my top of page 2 post? Come on man. Your isk/hour estimate is shortsighted because you fail to take into account the real value of the intermediates you produce -- and own. Say it's a 2 step process, state 1-->2-->3. You are calculating profits for the process "1-->3". But it's possible to calculate profits for "1-->2" and "2-->3". When "2-->3" is negative, you really should just stop at "1-->2" unless you want to make profits disappear (like ebank did with its investors' isk). This has been stated about 5 different ways but you seem to refuse to come to terms with it.
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2010.07.11 16:03:00 - [14] Originally by: Icanti Edited by: Icanti on 11/07/2010 10:17:37 Take a look at Consumer electronics. Takes 40 Toxic metals and 40 Chiral Structures to produce 5 Consumer electronics. Toxic Metals - Lets say they are worth 500 isk per unit (going for 800 in Jita right now) Chiral Structures - 500 per unit. 40* 500 = 20k So that's 40k for 5. 8k per Consumer electronic, and yet they are being sold for 3.6k in Jita right now. People are insane!!!! It's always a good investment sign when the P2 is undervalued compared to its inputs, and then its major input is also undervalued compared to the P0. Consumer Elec is bound to rise. But it's not used in Guidance Systems. Perhaps you should start a thread about it?
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2010.07.14 20:12:00 - [15] Originally by: Kwaya I agree. Consumer Electronics is going to take a serious dive now. I expect near NPC prices in two weeks time. Everyone holding to CE are in for a nasty surprise. Just put up some buy orders and need to get volume moving, huh? Claiming a P2 is going to be at P1 pricing is pretty dumb. CE will rise long term. It's commonly used in research and as an input for robotics creation as POS fuel, in addition to being a normal PI building block. Any recent changes in its price are consistent with the broadly seen P2/P3 profit taking from the past few days.
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2010.07.15 16:43:00 - [16] Edited by: pmchem on 15/07/2010 16:45:06 By pretty much any spreadsheet-based analysis of PI out there, GS are not worth producing at their current price via PI. In fact, they're worth buying straight off the market to use as part of production for their P4 -- aside from just buying and holding for the inevitable price rise as current replenishment of supply does not meet current demand. Demand is only being met by stockpilers and speculators dumping. A lot of people panic selling to take profits, that's all you're seeing here. GS is an easy moneymaker at current prices. edit: talonyc's post is an even more blatant attempt at market manipulation. CE have been steady the past 24h and are worth 10x their pre-PI cost, lawl. It's like the manipulators here think people can't look at price history graphs. Manipulate better.
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2010.07.15 18:10:00 - [17] For anyone late to the thread and scratching their heads at the 'SELL!' manipulators, here is why GS and CE (to give 2 examples) are excellent long-term buys right now: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Av49RIDL-V7zdFN0NTZtcjdBMHRxZC1pbUdpVEJsNmc&hl=en#gid=1 and http://spreadsheets0.google.com/ccc?key=taHtreoEfapNEdkqqdxscqg&hl=en_GB#gid=10 In 2 independent spreadsheets you see that it costs much, much more in ingredients to produce CE or GS than you get in resulting finished product (CE or GS). Therefore CE/GS are due to increase in value long term, because people doing PI have no incentive to produce these products compared to other P2/P3 (or just selling the ingredients). Any given day, someone may buy out Jita causing a price spike, or unload a stockpile causing a temporary drop. Can't panic sell unless you enjoy losing isk. Of course, the manipulators know these long term facts already, so they find a great price to buy when a recent downward sell-off is ending, set up buy orders and then come post here screaming 'SELL! SELL!'. It's an easy ploy. Don't fall for it. In fact -- take the advice of their actions and -buy-.
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2010.07.15 18:20:00 - [18] Edited by: pmchem on 15/07/2010 18:23:11 I post with logic, numbers, spreadsheets not created by me vetted by other players in S&I, while a manipulator like the one above just posts a vague claim of 'flawed' and a panic declarative to 'sell'. Check the long-term (20-day) price trends for CE/GS, check the spreadsheets, examine the sheer number of buy orders and 0.01 market pvp in buy orders -- and know I'm the one speaking the truth. edit: I mean half of talonyc's fearmongering is based on CCP changing PI... as if that's guaranteed to help his cause. It's just laughable.
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2010.07.15 18:27:00 - [19] In the long term, NPC value means nothing as stockpiles are finite and dwindling. Talonyc knows this, and wants to buy. Compare CE's price to non-NPC seeded P2s such as supertensile plastics. CE will inevitably rise. Talonyc if you want to get better at market manipulation, I am sure several people on the forum could help you out. The efforts by 'sell!' manipulators in this thread are pretty sad, come up with a better story please.
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2010.07.15 18:35:00 - [20] So whose alt is Halley? Anyway, for the products under discussion there is plenty of demand. GS are used in T2 drones (I hear T2 drones are kind of popular and sometimes people even lose them), while CE have 1,356 different uses in manufacture/research (it's true - check out all the items it's needed to do research for) and are also used as an ingredient to create Robotics, which as I hear, gets used now and then. They are literally among the highest demand items within their tiers.
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2010.07.15 19:07:00 - [21] Originally by: Sazkyen So how high is CE going in the long run then? I checked the excel files but I couldn't really understand them. All I can see is that they are probably saying that CE is supposed to be around 7k. That's a reasonable and plausible price for after stockpiles start to run dry. You'll see a slow climb towards that, with a short-term drop when someone unloads their stock and others follow suit. We're approaching the end of one of those phases around now.
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2010.07.21 00:20:00 - [22] Originally by: Weaselior Edited by: Weaselior on 20/07/2010 21:58:47 We got our guidance systems at less than a tenth of buy order prices, right now. Pretty sure we are doing alright already. I mean "only 12x return" is hardly something to cry in your beer about. I thought I would be able to afford a supercap guy, supercarrier, and 3 replacement supercarriers with my paltry initial investment, so I am crying into my 100-year-old whiskey at the thought of only being able to afford one spare instead of three. Anyway, not worried about GS.

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