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Gwen Reinholds
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Posted - 2010.07.20 21:55:00 -
[1]
I have looked at the daily trading volume tables for some of the T2/T3 PI materials. Obviously there was a volume spike when the ceiling provided by NPC orders broke off.
That was to be expected. but in some cases, the volume is so stupidly high as to make you wonder if PI based production of these items will ever be done in the entire future timespan this MMO exists.
The strongest example I've come across is this - 06.14.10 - Silicate Glass - nearly 103M units bought for 203.50 (NPC sell order prices).
At current prices this stockpile is worth over 200B ISK and represents about 3 YEARS WORTH of normal daily trading volume. In other words if these guys were the only sellers of Silicate glass they could supply the entire MMO for 3 years worth of demand. Whoever did this can congratulate themselves on making a perpetual profit machine.
Just wonder how much of PI based production is broken to this degree. I suppose some of it might actually start being useful in a few months to a year.
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Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.07.20 22:08:00 -
[2]
And where did you come by the figure of the "entire MMO demand"? ----------------------- "Signatures" chatroom for traders / Hydra Investment Fund |
ZeJesus
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Posted - 2010.07.20 22:27:00 -
[3]
Sell.
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Ahkii
Kaaii-Net Research Labs
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Posted - 2010.07.20 22:33:00 -
[4]
Thank you.....
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Gwen Reinholds
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Posted - 2010.07.20 22:34:00 -
[5]
I do wonder why did they have to use existing materials for the new production chain. It kinda looks like a cheap way to give free ISK to those testers/insiders who knew what materials were involved in the production chains before it was released to the public.
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Gwen Reinholds
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Posted - 2010.07.20 22:41:00 -
[6]
I don't have any silicate glass in stock, so no selling from me. It's one material I will NOT bother trying to make with PI though.
I do have some other PI's that I'm going to hold for a year.
Also, I was wrong to call it "entire MMO demand". I meant the demand in Jita, though it maybe a considerable % of the total, I have no real idea. Sorry but that's just my station trading mentality showing through.
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Breaker77
Gallente Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.07.20 22:44:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Gwen Reinholds I do wonder why did they have to use existing materials for the new production chain. It kinda looks like a cheap way to give free ISK to those testers/insiders who knew what materials were involved in the production chains before it was released to the public.
You do know that the info was available for everyone to check out on sisi before Tyrannis hit right? RIGHT???
It's not our fault you didn't get on there and do the research.
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Gwen Reinholds
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Posted - 2010.07.20 23:17:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Breaker77
You do know that the info was available for everyone to check out on sisi before Tyrannis hit right? RIGHT???
It's not our fault you didn't get on there and do the research.
I got back a week ago thanks to the 5 day account reactivation by mail thingy. I've been gone for a couple of years. I had no chance to get up to speed and realize the potential in PI until it was way too late. Note however that's not what troubled me. Look carefully at what I said: I was not accusing the stockpiling players of anything. Just can't understand why CCP made it use existing materials in the first place, that is all.
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Breaker77
Gallente Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.07.20 23:52:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Gwen Reinholds Just can't understand why CCP made it use existing materials in the first place, that is all.
Because CCP stated they want to get rid of NPC orders. Even if they had completely renamed the items then they would have had to modify all the blueprints that used the NPC sold items to use the new ones.
Then what do you do the items no longer used? Do you just delete them, convert them to the new items, let them turn into hangar ornaments like mines?
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Gwen Reinholds
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Posted - 2010.07.21 00:06:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Breaker77
Because CCP stated they want to get rid of NPC orders. Even if they had completely renamed the items then they would have had to modify all the blueprints that used the NPC sold items to use the new ones.
Then what do you do the items no longer used? Do you just delete them, convert them to the new items, let them turn into hangar ornaments like mines?
deleting them would be kinda unfair. converting them to the new items would defeat the point of making the new items... fairest thing IMO would be to reimburse their ISK cost to players/corps holding them, using the original NPC sell order price.
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.07.21 00:08:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Gwen Reinholds I do wonder why did they have to use existing materials for the new production chain. It kinda looks like a cheap way to give free ISK to those testers/insiders who knew what materials were involved in the production chains before it was released to the public.
the npc goods were still seeded when PI was live we were furious over it since it meant any idiot could figure out our cash cow
guess not
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Breaker77
Gallente Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.07.21 00:11:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Gwen Reinholds
fairest thing IMO would be to reimburse their ISK cost to players/corps holding them, using the original NPC sell order price.
So now every POS in EVE goes offline as when they find those items they delete them and refund your ISK.
Think that might be the reason they didn't do anything at all to them?
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.07.21 00:11:00 -
[13]
also check out what we did to guidance systems which will basically never be profitable to make ever
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pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.07.21 00:13:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Weaselior
Originally by: Gwen Reinholds I do wonder why did they have to use existing materials for the new production chain. It kinda looks like a cheap way to give free ISK to those testers/insiders who knew what materials were involved in the production chains before it was released to the public.
the npc goods were still seeded when PI was live we were furious over it since it meant any idiot could figure out our cash cow
guess not
confirming an amazing number of people missed the 50 page thread in GD and never bothered to look at PI good prices/seeds even after PI was live
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Gwen Reinholds
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Posted - 2010.07.21 00:14:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Weaselior
the npc goods were still seeded when PI was live we were furious over it since it meant any idiot could figure out our cash cow
guess not
trolling much? how about bothering to read posts in full before turning to insults?
guess not
also funny is the repeated use of "we" in your posts. Who are "we" exactly? I don't generally share good trades when I find them and I would not trust other people to do the same.
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.07.21 00:19:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Gwen Reinholds
Originally by: Weaselior
the npc goods were still seeded when PI was live we were furious over it since it meant any idiot could figure out our cash cow
guess not
trolling much? how about bothering to read posts in full before turning to insults?
guess not
also funny is the repeated use of "we" in your posts. Who are "we" exactly? I don't generally share good trades when I find them and I would not trust other people to do the same.
goonwaffe
we didn't share it with pubbies or anything that's why we were furious when it was so obvious nobody could miss it when PI was live but the seeds remained since you'd then figure it out
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.07.21 00:21:00 -
[17]
convincing everyone to buy npc goods en masse has made my job as CFO so much easier because like everyone is loaded now
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Gwen Reinholds
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Posted - 2010.07.21 00:34:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Weaselior convincing everyone to buy npc goods en masse has made my job as CFO so much easier because like everyone is loaded now
well, great job there.
I don't suppose you can give me an answer though? why did CCP do it this way, rather than, say, use the solution I just thought about in 30 minutes? (even better would be allowing both old and new materials to be used in manufacturing for another 60 days until PI based economy starts up would also be an option, could keep the NPC buy orders for old items as well).
or maybe if they wanted it to work the way they did it, they should have at least calibrated the unit amounts in the schematics in such manner that NPC base prices match the market value of the commodities at the time PI was launched?
But no, it makes perfect sense for NPC corps to sell stuff infinitely to players at 1/50 of cost. Sloppy, bordering on incompetent :/
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.07.21 00:44:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Gwen Reinholds
Originally by: Weaselior convincing everyone to buy npc goods en masse has made my job as CFO so much easier because like everyone is loaded now
well, great job there.
I don't suppose you can give me an answer though? why did CCP do it this way, rather than, say, use the solution I just thought about in 30 minutes?
our actual, well-thought out answer is they're dumb as bricks and never once contemplated the effect on the market
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Breaker77
Gallente Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.07.21 00:46:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Gwen Reinholds
or maybe if they wanted it to work the way they did it, they should have at least calibrated the unit amounts in the schematics in such manner that NPC base prices match the market value of the commodities at the time PI was launched?
When Tyrannis was released the market price was NPC price. There were no player prices (well very few and those were at major hubs if the item wasn't available there already). So does the new NPC price adjust to the market price of 0?
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Gwen Reinholds
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Posted - 2010.07.21 00:56:00 -
[21]
oh, yea. like that's going to fly. I want to see you spend the time running PI to make consumer electronics and go sell them for 200 isk/u. A day old newbie in a frigate mining veldspar makes better income than that.
The price of running PI is not zero. PI requires player attention, all forms of income in the game compete for it, and at NPC base prices, it doesn't compete. Even at 10x NPC prices it doesn't compete.
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Breaker77
Gallente Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.07.21 01:01:00 -
[22]
I never said the price was zero. I said if you wanted NPC prices to adjust, what would they adjust to??
Originally by: Gwen Reinholds NPC base prices match the market value of the commodities at the time PI was launched?
The market value of NPC sold items was, wait for it, wait for it.... keep waiting....
NPC PRICE!!
Prices can not adjust to something that does not exist (fair market price).
It will probably be 6 to 12 months before we even begin to see a normal price for PI goods. Why?? Because no one knows what they are worth.
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Gwen Reinholds
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Posted - 2010.07.21 01:10:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Breaker77 I never said the price was zero. I said if you wanted NPC prices to adjust, what would they adjust to??
Originally by: Gwen Reinholds NPC base prices match the market value of the commodities at the time PI was launched?
The market value of NPC sold items was, wait for it, wait for it.... keep waiting....
NPC PRICE!!
Prices can not adjust to something that does not exist (fair market price).
It will probably be 6 to 12 months before we even begin to see a normal price for PI goods. Why?? Because no one knows what they are worth.
Yes I understand all that, but here's a clue about the of worth PI materials: if they kept the original NPC sell orders available still, there wouldn't be even one industrialist in the game that would ever trouble themselves with PI based production of those same items.
Yes, you are right that CCP had no way to accurately gauge the "correct" market price for PI-based manufacturing of those NPC items. But the way they implemented it required them to do so -- and mind you, that's only because they painted themselves into that corner, I gave an alternative solution in this thread that would run the "old" and "new" version of those items alongside until the old could be retired.
Clearly they were off by an order of magnitude with their calculations, as the market price action evidently shows. Oops.
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.07.21 01:12:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Gwen Reinholds
Clearly they were off by an order of magnitude with their calculations, as the market price action evidently shows. Oops.
no seriously they never did any calculations at all they just left the prices at what they had been before which was completely random guidance systems, a p3 product, were 418 isk
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Gwen Reinholds
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Posted - 2010.07.21 01:23:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Weaselior
no seriously they never did any calculations at all they just left the prices at what they had been before which was completely random guidance systems, a p3 product, were 418 isk
yea. now that I think of it, the schematics calibration approach would never work. Because if they made everything fit the NPC order prices as they were, the entire market demand for PI materials would be too small in total ISK to be worth the bother. Prices HAVE to come up by a lot for PI to work.
The only tenable solution then would be making new versions of those items and allowing blueprint BOM to consume both new and old versions of each item, remove NPC sell order of old items, and voila, fixed.
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Gwen Reinholds
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Posted - 2010.07.21 01:53:00 -
[26]
I realized that the market rate for the old parts would still run up anyway, so stockpilers would still make lots of profit - the trick is, though, that they would have an expiration date to worry about. So they'd have to get rid of it all by then, too much inventory and you couldn't sell it all without forcing the price down. And when it expired, the PI based economy would actually work. Also the "correct" market prices for PI-based mats would be discovered a lot faster. Now we have a situation that it's more a guessing game of how much of the stuff is stockpiled and how much pressure there is to unload it rather than anything related to PI costs. Could go on for months or years depending on the material. Great job CCP.
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menacemyth
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Posted - 2010.07.21 05:24:00 -
[27]
Edited by: menacemyth on 21/07/2010 05:26:14 I read the minutes for the last CSM conference. And the CSM asked CCP this question. CCP replied they thought the potential damage to the market economy was negligable so they didn't do anything at all.
Let's see, they could easily calculate a rough value for all npc goods based on current SOV structure prices and the materials. many people made calculated predictions, some high some low but nobody predicted guidance systems would stay at 4000 isk. They essentially injected the system with trillions of isk in the form of npc goods (if sold at current cost to produce prices), and are requiring that isk be transferred slowly to the people who speculated.
How could transferring such insane amounts of isk to those who speculated be considered negligable damage.
I speculated. And I know speculation has ALWAYS been a part of eve and it's expansions. But the magnitude of it this time is irresponsible. Like always if you don't like it you can give me your stuff, but it could really turn alot of people off this time.
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Murrue Raimius
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Posted - 2010.07.21 05:29:00 -
[28]
In any case, 103m x 203.50 isk = 20.96B isk. Hardly over 200B isk
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menacemyth
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Posted - 2010.07.21 06:14:00 -
[29]
If you bought the silicon and oxidizing compound at today's jita prices, it would cost 4818 isk per silicate glass. 103milx4818(current cost to produce)equals 496 billion worth of silicate glass at a cost of 20 billion. Whether it's sold below cost is irrelevant. it still sells at 1000% profit. That's only ONE PI commodity. At current PI prices(note that IHubs cost less that 250mil to make), some PI goods cost 10x their price to produce and that's with deflated prices. There are trillions worth of goods out there.
That CCP didn't think that would hurt the economy is completely crazy is all i'm saying!
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Nefrums
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Posted - 2010.07.21 06:25:00 -
[30]
As I see it there is only one thing that CCP can do to fix this.. Increase the output of PI by an order of magnitude, and the material bill of all things that use PI stuff by the same amount..
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