Dannemora
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Posted - 2010.09.02 03:58:00 -
[1]
 Originally by: Troy LS
I seem to recall reading a Dev Blog that explained that large fleet fights were unpredictable and that it was difficult to allocate computing resources to such fights. I'm not a programmer but, as an engineer, I have studied statistics and probablity. It seems to me that there are some statistics that would help predict resource utilization on a particular node.
For instance, if a fleet is formed, there is a chance that it will engage a similarly sized fleet. The probability of engagement increases if there are two or more fleets in close proximity. The probability is further increased if the two fleets have negative standings with one another, and virtually assured if they are at war.
My point is that a stochastic model can be developed that would predict resource utilization and allocate resources accordingly. When the model incidates a high probability of resource utilization, the resources can be apropriately allocated PRIOR to the engagement. The resources that might be involved can be predicted by the number of pilots in fleets, the number corpmates and alliance members and associates with standings that are online and in the region, and the resources (ships) that are availabile to those pilots.
I think its funny that CCP has asked players to inform them when they expect large fleet engagements. I can't think of too many situations when enemies have agreed to fight at an agreed upon time and place.
I'm not a not an engineer, but as a systems architect, I saw roughly the same as you in that dev blog :)
However I also noticed one big problem in the current design that negates the effect of being able to predict the resource utilization in real time.
They can't shift people off a location node once it's loaded for them without booting them off it in the process.
That's why they need to perform the load pattern during downtime.
It's like knowing how much beer you should stock an aircraft with before it takes off.
Sure there's nice studies that show the normal consumption based on a boat load of parameters. But if one large group of, let's say, middle aged accountants, wasn't heading to some important seminar but actually going to a 30 year celebration of their graduation, the calculation would most likely be off. And the accountants would run the aircraft dry, at least of beer.
Loading every single flight with enough beer to serve an entire cabin full of beer-happy accountants isn't a workable solution. It would be way to expensive for any company to add all that weight just to shuttle beer around the globe for no good.
Mid air refuelling would work. But it would require that such an option was added at the design stage. Adding it to existing aircraft would be a really hairy job.
But, when I read the devblog I also noticed that they are moving as much as possible off the actual aircraft, erh location node.
This in extension would make it a good deal easier, or at least less complex, to re-engineer the choke points.
Redesigning the beer supply system to handle air-refuelling is easier than redesigning the entire aircraft.
So I'd say, with some experience, that they are on the right track, and improvements will come.
But it'll take a while to get it done, and they will have to tread carefully not to create new problems in other areas.
/D
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