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PinkFish
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Posted - 2010.10.09 14:54:00 -
[1]
I think the point of VVs graph is to show that while the market is trending up (see it finishing up higher late next year?), the movement we see now is driven by market psychology. We know it's going to go up, so its going up. However, we also know there are hundreds of billions of isk worth of Tech stockpiled in anticipation of the rise. By the time us traders have had our way with Technetium that psychology will have driven the market in a predictable pattern.
Personally I think Technetium will see more muted downturns showing more of the underlying increase in value. Demand for Tech can drop for a few weeks when producers think it's too high, but they still are going to have to buy if they want to be producers. Demand for T2 is extremely inelastic in the long run. If your hull is 80m or 120m you're still going to keep flying and losing the ships you have trained to fly. Very few high SP pilots would let 30 or 40m isk (when prices are stable and they don't think they can wait it out) put them back in crap t1 fits. So long as the volume is there eating away at stockpiles every day the ability of the market to crash to or below historic price points is somewhat limited.
Regarding the increase in volume the last few days- while traders are definitely swaping position also note that producers have been delaying buying for a long time now, and there is pent-up demand hiding in the shadows.
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PinkFish
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Posted - 2010.10.10 23:06:00 -
[2]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha I am sorry but the spite posts I keep getting in multiple threads about TA made me decide to stop spending tens of hours for free and for everyone.
I know this is out of place on this thread, but I want to comment on this.
Don't let a few hater trolls get you down. I, and I'm sure many others who don't post often here, have gained tremendous respect for your threads and what you do. There are very few educational threads on MD since we moved to the top of the list and your posts have stirred up a few good ones in just a couple of weeks.
I've been enjoying learning about real life TA the last few weeks, which started with your thread.
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PinkFish
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Posted - 2010.10.11 13:39:00 -
[3]
Edited by: PinkFish on 11/10/2010 13:40:54
Originally by: Raid'En Edited by: Raid''En on 11/10/2010 12:57:18
you counted this thread on your analysis of the situation ? think it will help a bit ?
I don't think my bond will get enough capital to really have a big impact on the market. 60B would have made a dent in the down manipulation going on but ~20b won't push them into submission on its own.
One thing to consider about my bond, though. If a lot of big players were pulling out of Tech for a few months and really thought they were going to see a crash there would be lots of public isk available for a bond like mine. Major speculators as a group are most able to understand the way collateral on my bond works and would see the value in parking their isk there while pulling out of a big market. The fact that everyone is so tight with isk lately suggests they don't believe Tech is really going to drop far before it resumes its ascent.
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PinkFish
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Posted - 2010.10.11 14:44:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Raid'En you counted this thread on your analysis of the situation ? think it will help a bit ?
That's about a fifth of what I could do with personal funding alone, and barely represents over one day's worth of trade... so, no, I doubt it would have much of an impact.
Quit yer yappin and start moving Technetium back up already.
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PinkFish
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Posted - 2010.10.11 14:57:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: PinkFish Quit yer yappin and start moving Technetium back up already.
Why bother making a play trying to push something huge in a direction it's already moving if just sitting on your ass doing nothing will yield almost the same end result with far less effort ?
To punish the people who are working so hard to move it against the current.
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PinkFish
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Posted - 2010.10.26 18:39:00 -
[6]
I still really think Akita was right in his analysis that demand outstrips supply in the Technetium market. My view is that the buy-up to 70k caused a panic buy from traders who didn't want to miss out, and who slowly give up on the next big spike thereby releasing a little at a time putting the market in a temporary equilibrium. I also take it that many people who use Technetium are running on lower and lower stockpiles trying to wait out what they perceive to be a run-of-the-mill manipulation.
Talk of "powerful players" engaging in a grand manipulation is just fear mongering. The price would have dropped back to 40k by now if this was a player-driven cycle. There are numerous people who are selling tech in such a way as to try and drive price down, and their efforts repeatedly fail before they pick up momentum. I can see how someone who doesn't play in markets as big as Tech regularly would see this as manipulation. The reason I think they are wrong is that f the only thing keeping prices up were people buying lower orders to sustain a floor, then you wouldn't see bites getting taken out of the lower blocking orders every couple of days.
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PinkFish
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Posted - 2010.11.05 18:59:00 -
[7]
There are a few players that have been trying very hard to crash Technetium for a while now. You see them undercut with 5-6 orders between the same 2-3 people by 1-2k every couple weeks. Its expected the the climb Tech took would attract speculators who don't have a clue about how commodities work and strange dumb plans would be hatched during a slow period like this.
Wherever tech drops to as speculators exit it's still going to have an underlying supply/demand problem. The active attempt to crash tech (not sure if thats whats going on today, haven't been on to check) says someone really wants to reinvest but thinks they should get a low price.
Maybe the manipulation is running low on Tech and they are hoping the last of their stock will be enough to push the price down so they can resupply. If they didn't know what they are doing that kind of plan would be easy to come up with.
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PinkFish
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Posted - 2010.11.07 11:38:00 -
[8]
I'm starting to lean more towards the Akita T conspiracy. This all started right when VV called Akita T a market maker.
So now the name of the game is how low will Tech go before we all buy back in.
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