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Effect of PLEX for remap on PLEX market

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Ash Donai	Posted - 2010.10.14 23:57:00 - [31] Originally by: Dana Gilmour You don't seem to grasp what Exponential Growth means. You're embarrassing yourself really. Actually you are masking your inability to communicate your thoughts by linking to some Wikipedia entry that somehow has something to do with what you are attempting to say. It's like the guys on 4chan linking images in reply to posts. If you have an opinion that is somehow relevant, then type it out, linking to math doesn't make you smarter. Exponential Growth has no relation to the topic discussed in this thread.
Fan Li	Posted - 2010.10.14 23:58:00 - [32] Edited by: Fan Li on 15/10/2010 00:01:35 Edited by: Fan Li on 15/10/2010 00:01:03 Originally by: Akita T Except that during the summer of 2009 it was also up to nearly 400 mil ISK per PLEX//half-GTC, but it went down to 300 in the autumn of 2009 and down to 260 in the spring of 2010. This clearly is trumped by this argument Originally by: Ash Donai I don't expect a 20% rise per month, but history shows that it's more than 20% per year. Oh wait... Summer '09 = 400m Spring '10 = 260m How is that a 20%+ ROI? edit: forgot the "+" after "20%"
Dana Gilmour	Posted - 2010.10.15 00:11:00 - [33] Oh god, do I really need to explain it like to a 5 year old? Originally by: Ash Donai I don't expect a 20% rise per month, but history shows that it's more than 20% per year. I think I got that right, ETCs were first out in 2006 at let's say 120M/30d, speculation aside let's call the current market price 340, that's still roughly 30% per year. That means you are implying that PLEX prices are rising exponentially (as per standard definition of Exponential Growth which is: Exponential growth occurs when the growth rate of a mathematical function is proportional to the function's current value.) Originally by: Ash Donai Pretty sure that the burden of proof that GTC prices were rising exponentially is on you, especially since as soon as Amber nearly monopolized the GTC trade there was nothing exponential about the pricing, nor does the graph previously linked in here bears any resemblance to exponential growth. Then, the very next post you suggest that there's no exponential growth at all and the burden of proving that there is lies on me which is hilarious because I didn't say that would be the case, you yourself said it. That's exactly the reason I advised you to look the term up. Did this help?
Max Cetera	Posted - 2010.10.15 00:12:00 - [34] Edited by: Max Cetera on 15/10/2010 00:14:11 http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/2276/plexprice.jpg Certainly don't expect PLEX any lower than 460m by Xmas
Ashina Sito Gallente Center for Advanced Studies	Posted - 2010.10.15 00:13:00 - [35] Akita and Dana Gilmour covered all the misinformation/error that Ash Donai was posting so I won't go over that. As to the original question. Originally by: DeBingJos Please give me your opinions what do you think will happen to the plex-market if CCP allows us to trade a plex for a neural remap? Will the price of plex rise because they will be used more? (More demand = higher price) What kind of price increase are you thinking about? "True value" of PLEX if/after CCP adds PLEX for Remap is 310 million (+/- 20 million). This is up from the "true value" of 270 million that it currently is. There will be a slight rise in consumption but not as much as people expect. Long term alt training will not be affected. If "one year remap" skill plans worked in the past then they will continue to work in the future. Why spend the additional ISK? These will be the pilots most likely to be using the PLEX remap and have little reason to do so. If they do it will not be to remap monthly, or even quarterly. It will more likely be shaving a few months of "extra" training that they were doing while waiting out the 1 year remap. How many Caldari Archura are there in game? Every single one of those pilots WILL NOT remap. Why? They will lose their 3 Charisma. The lowest you can get with the remap is 5 points in a single attribute. Old time Min/Maxer's chose the Archura do to the 3 Cha and will not abandon it easily. They already constructed their pilots attributes to best suit that pilot's intended purpose. My Archura with even stats all across with the 3 Cha.... Why would I ever change it? That is tens of thousands of pilots that will never ever touch a PLEX for Remap.... unless CCP allows for a 3 Cha or lower base stat. Another interesting aspect is that this may spur an increase in PLEX production. If a player that uses GTC/PLEX to gain ISK in game wants to remap they will not buy a PLEX in game, they will purchase a GTC to convert. That will result in a remap outside of the market. If they only need one remap, then they will sell the additional PLEX. End result, +1 PLEX in the market that would not normally be there. There has nearly always been a greater demand for ISK then for PLEX. The only thing that keeps pushing the price up is people speculating off of PLEX. The faintest whiff of something PLEX related causes PLEX prices to rise. The current spike is the result of the initial posts about PLEX for remap and boosted by the CCP interview posted a week or more ago. While PLEX may rise (between now and the patch) the actual value of PLEX after the patch will be lower then today... a lot lower. There are other factors involved but, I have put enough time in this post so I am done. I will make a prediction though... Average PLEX price on Feb. 1st in Jita will be 317 million (+/- 5 million). Fake Edit: Bugger! Forgot to readjust my old PLEX baselines to the new values after being able to move them. Ah well. Will take to long to fuss out the correct "true value" so I will leave it as is. I still back the Jita price prediction anyway.
Dana Gilmour	Posted - 2010.10.15 00:18:00 - [36] Originally by: Max Cetera Edited by: Max Cetera on 15/10/2010 00:14:11 http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/2276/plexprice.jpg Certainly don't expect PLEX any lower than 460m by Xmas Another poor minded creature with no understanding of economics or mathematics whatsoever.
Ash Donai	Posted - 2010.10.15 00:44:00 - [37] Dana, I see what you are saying about exponential growth and how it relates to the trend I was talking about. I think the reason why I was confused is that I don't believe that such growth is sustainable going forward. Yes, I noted 30+ growth per year previously and I do believe that time codes will add more than a couple percent per year from now on, but it can't go on like this forever. A new term was introduced I just can't help myself but fall into the trap: Originally by: Ashina Sito "True value" of PLEX if/after CCP adds PLEX for Remap is 310 million (+/- 20 million). This is up from the "true value" of 270 million that it currently is. Care to elaborate how you arrive at the true value of something that has an inherently arbitrary value? Originally by: Ashina Sito Why spend the additional ISK? Because there's nothing else to spend ISK on? Besides CCP making more money on PLEX sales the PLEX for remap is one of the very few things (other than subscriptions) that's actually something that is useful and continuously removes ISK from the game. Originally by: Ashina Sito There has nearly always been a greater demand for ISK then for PLEX. The only thing that keeps pushing the price up is people speculating off of PLEX. Seeing that the 60d price is linked to the 30d price, how do you figure that speculators manage to easily drive up the price of the entire market consistently over years? Or could it be that players have so much ISK that they basically don't care what the price is and readily pay the asking price because they don't have anything else to spend their ISK on? Originally by: Ashina Sito Average PLEX price on Feb. 1st in Jita will be 317 million (+/- 5 million). That prediction is about as good as me calling up grandma and asking her to pick a number between 250 and 500. How much are you willing to bet on that prediction?
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2010.10.15 00:51:00 - [38] Edited by: Akita T on 15/10/2010 00:54:45 The fact that maybe, just maybe in case PLEX prices keep rising, large amounts of people might stop paying with PLEX purchased with ISK and switching to RL cash payments, or shut down some alt accounts, or even quit playing altogether dropping demand drastically is also one thing that hasn't crossed your mind at all, I presume. So far we haven't seen PLEX price variations out of historical minimums nor maximums. There's no good reason to expect prices of PLEX in the future to deviate TOO MUCH from historical maximums or minimums. Yes, some mild increase overall is likely, but the "normal" seasonal or speculation-driven price swings are noticeably higher than the likely underlying average price growth. _ Beginner's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper \| All about reacting _
Max Cetera	Posted - 2010.10.15 01:16:00 - [39] Originally by: Dana Gilmour Originally by: Max Cetera Edited by: Max Cetera on 15/10/2010 00:14:11 http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/2276/plexprice.jpg Certainly don't expect PLEX any lower than 460m by Xmas Another poor minded creature with no understanding of economics or mathematics whatsoever. I expect you to make a public apology on MD once the future will have proven me right.
Dana Gilmour	Posted - 2010.10.15 01:56:00 - [40] Originally by: Max Cetera Originally by: Dana Gilmour Originally by: Max Cetera Edited by: Max Cetera on 15/10/2010 00:14:11 http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/2276/plexprice.jpg Certainly don't expect PLEX any lower than 460m by Xmas Another poor minded creature with no understanding of economics or mathematics whatsoever. I expect you to make a public apology on MD once the future will have proven me right. Right. Let me get into details then: - as a starting point, you chose two months during which PLEX price was heavily influenced by PLEX per remap rumors and big market manipulations. - on top of that, a two month period would have been a way to small of a sample to build anything upon it, even if they were somewhat normal. - you draw two straight lines on the graph, throw in "rocketting" and "sky is teh limit" and voila, you you just made a prediction. Makes perfect sense, if you would present this at a kindergarden, I'm sure it'll be a blast. All those 4 years old there would be in awe of your intelect, economics knowledge and deductive power. How about go there and put up a show and spare us, grown ups, of this random crap which has no basis or logic whatsoever? Really, I liked you more when I thought you were a troll.

Captain Blart Hideous Mutant Freekz	Posted - 2010.10.15 02:03:00 - [41] Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 15/10/2010 00:58:53 The fact that maybe, just maybe in case PLEX prices keep rising, large amounts of people might stop paying with PLEX purchased with ISK and switching to RL cash payments, or shut down some alt accounts, or even quit playing altogether dropping demand drastically This.
Valemora	Posted - 2010.10.15 03:42:00 - [42] As more people buy more plex to sell for money plex will go down. As plex is rises many will stop using isk to pay, and therfore it will go back down. Either way its not gunna go up by much.
Seriously Bored Minmatar	Posted - 2010.10.15 04:09:00 - [43] Originally by: Valemora As plex is rises many will stop using isk to pay, and therfore it will go back down. Confirming that I am contemplating selling my modest stash of PLEX to the speculators and paying real $$ for EVE for the first time in two years. Thanks for the enlightening conversations folks, I was wondering why the price was skyrocketing. Now to make an educated guess on when the zenith of this little speculation bubble will take place...
Ash Donai	Posted - 2010.10.15 05:02:00 - [44] Originally by: Akita T The fact that maybe, just maybe in case PLEX prices keep rising, large amounts of people might stop paying with PLEX purchased with ISK and switching to RL cash payments CCP does of course not release stats on PLEX but it's not unreasonable to think that a large numbers of players who actually buy PLEX are residents of countries where $15 is still quite a bit of cash. I am thinking that most all macro miners and ratters use PLEX no matter what the cost is, a bunch of Russians, Romanians, probably a bunch of players from developing countries in Asia, etc. At the end of the day it's all speculation and history will prove it one way or another.
Dagny Bronstein	Posted - 2010.10.15 05:47:00 - [45] Edited by: Dagny Bronstein on 15/10/2010 05:49:32 Originally by: Dana Gilmour Originally by: Max Cetera Edited by: Max Cetera on 15/10/2010 00:14:11 http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/2276/plexprice.jpg Certainly don't expect PLEX any lower than 460m by Xmas Another poor minded creature with no understanding of economics or mathematics whatsoever Actually I think his understanding of economics is pretty good (certainly better than the understanding of many professional economists) - that's exactly the sort of chart that made American consumers put their money in REITs, invest in the dotcom bubble, buy homes they could not afford, ... without asking any pesky questions. If it looks semi-sophisticated (notice the 2 parallel lines because one just wouldn't have done the job) and is presented in a nice image with colors the lemmings will buy it. edit: I also appreciate the "literally off the chart"-character of that picture
LaForge Geordi	Posted - 2010.10.15 07:14:00 - [46] Friend of mine stopped playing cause he cant afford to buy a PLEX anymore. We are in situation when players are leaving beacause playing EVE is more stresful than fun. Demand for PLEX is already falling. Once enough players decide to leave, price will have to go down. But I agree, it will take few months.
Dana Gilmour	Posted - 2010.10.15 07:17:00 - [47] Originally by: Dagny Bronstein Edited by: Dagny Bronstein on 15/10/2010 05:49:32 Originally by: Dana Gilmour Originally by: Max Cetera Edited by: Max Cetera on 15/10/2010 00:14:11 http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/2276/plexprice.jpg Certainly don't expect PLEX any lower than 460m by Xmas Another poor minded creature with no understanding of economics or mathematics whatsoever Actually I think his understanding of economics is pretty good (certainly better than the understanding of many professional economists) - that's exactly the sort of chart that made American consumers put their money in REITs, invest in the dotcom bubble, buy homes they could not afford, ... without asking any pesky questions. If it looks semi-sophisticated (notice the 2 parallel lines because one just wouldn't have done the job) and is presented in a nice image with colors the lemmings will buy it. edit: I also appreciate the "literally off the chart"-character of that picture There is another possibility indeed besides trolling and pretentious ignorance: the man invested heavily in PLEXes and he thinks that posting a graph where price will go up abruptly will actually help pushing it the right direction. Even if the graph and the conclusions aren't backed by anything, they could indeed fool some people.
Malcanis Caldari Vanishing Point. The Initiative.	Posted - 2010.10.15 10:58:00 - [48] Originally by: LaForge Geordi Friend of mine stopped playing cause he cant afford to buy a PLEX anymore. We are in situation when players are leaving beacause playing EVE is more stresful than fun. Demand for PLEX is already falling. Once enough players decide to leave, price will have to go down. But I agree, it will take few months. Luckily the option to give CCP the price of a pizza in return for 30 days unlimited access to the game still remains open. Malcanis' Law: Whenever a mechanics change is proposed on behalf of "new players", that change is always to the overwhelming advantage of richer, older players.
Samroski	Posted - 2010.10.15 11:54:00 - [49] Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 15/10/2010 00:58:53 The fact that maybe, just maybe in case PLEX prices keep rising, large amounts of people might stop paying with PLEX purchased with ISK and switching to RL cash payments, or shut down some alt accounts, I've already shut down an alt account, with possibly 2 more to follow if PLEX continues on its merry way up :)
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2010.10.15 13:32:00 - [50] Edited by: Akita T on 15/10/2010 13:35:24 Originally by: Malcanis Luckily the option to give CCP the price of a pizza in return for 30 days unlimited access to the game still remains open. What is this preposterous assumption ? We all know games are supposed to be free ! Just like ore you mine ! Or money in your RL paycheck ! Originally by: Ash Donai At the end of the day it's all speculation and history will prove it one way or another. Now, THAT is something we can fully agree on _ Beginner's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper \| All about reacting _

MARS VICTOR	Posted - 2010.10.15 13:47:00 - [51] Originally by: Captain Blart Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 15/10/2010 00:58:53 The fact that maybe, just maybe in case PLEX prices keep rising, large amounts of people might stop paying with PLEX purchased with ISK and switching to RL cash payments, or shut down some alt accounts, or even quit playing altogether dropping demand drastically This. Provided that CCP isn't capable of replacing those with new subscribers acquired in their focus on more mainstream types of contents and features that attract others then the traditional old time eve subscribers. This besides the observation that EVE is still growing either way.
Dana Gilmour	Posted - 2010.10.15 14:01:00 - [52] Edited by: Dana Gilmour on 15/10/2010 14:03:49 Originally by: MARS VICTOR Originally by: Captain Blart Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 15/10/2010 00:58:53 The fact that maybe, just maybe in case PLEX prices keep rising, large amounts of people might stop paying with PLEX purchased with ISK and switching to RL cash payments, or shut down some alt accounts, or even quit playing altogether dropping demand drastically This. Provided that CCP isn't capable of replacing those with new subscribers acquired in their focus on more mainstream types of contents and features that attract others then the traditional old time eve subscribers. This besides the observation that EVE is still growing either way. What you said is another argument for PLEX prices to decrease, not increase. Cause if this happens, most of those new people will probably pay the accounts with RL money and some will even buy PLEXES with RL money to sell them in game. That means more PLEXES on the market and theoretically a lower price. Very few of the new people will start paying accounts with PLEXES, especially if the price is high.


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