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DeBingJos
Minmatar
Ethically Questionable
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Posted - 2010.10.14 11:13:00 -
[1]
Please give me your oppinions what do you think will happen to the plex-market if CCP allows us to trade a plex for a neural remap?
Will the price of plex rise because they will be used more? (More demand = higher price) What kind of price increase are you thinking about?
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Julian Koll
The Kollektive
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Posted - 2010.10.14 11:22:00 -
[2]
none. not even a little.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.10.14 11:38:00 -
[3]
Most likely, the effect already happened waaaaaay before the appearance of the cause, and with amplified magnitude.
I suspect once PLEX-for-remap goes live, PLEX prices will actually go DOWN.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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gn730qn4gjq3n4gqn348gnq3
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Posted - 2010.10.14 12:23:00 -
[4]
 Originally by: DeBingJos
More demand = lower price
Fixed that for you.
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Roguehalo
Caldari
Resonance Laboratories
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Posted - 2010.10.14 12:28:00 -
[5]
It's will be just another sly attempt by CCP to generate yet more revenue and will move Eve Online even further away from the monthly subscription game it once was.
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DeBingJos
Minmatar
Ethically Questionable
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Posted - 2010.10.14 13:05:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Akita T
Most likely, the effect already happened waaaaaay before the appearance of the cause, and with amplified magnitude.
I suspect once PLEX-for-remap goes live, PLEX prices will actually go DOWN.
May I ask why you think this? Because after the plex-for-remap patch goes live people will start using plex for remaps.
Lets say 100 plex were sold ingame before the patch or gametime.
After the patch 100 plex will be sold ingame for gametime and 40 will be sold for remaps. This makes 140 plex sold. (numbers are just an example)
The demand is rising and the supply will be the same => higher prices. Why would the plex-supply go up?
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Berikath
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Posted - 2010.10.14 13:30:00 -
[7]
Originally by: DeBingJos
Originally by: Akita T
Most likely, the effect already happened waaaaaay before the appearance of the cause, and with amplified magnitude.
I suspect once PLEX-for-remap goes live, PLEX prices will actually go DOWN.
May I ask why you think this? Because after the plex-for-remap patch goes live people will start using plex for remaps.
Lets say 100 plex were sold ingame before the patch or gametime.
After the patch 100 plex will be sold ingame for gametime and 40 will be sold for remaps. This makes 140 plex sold. (numbers are just an example)
The demand is rising and the supply will be the same => higher prices. Why would the plex-supply go up?
Because we can define:
"Speculation- Buying on the rumor, selling on the fact."
PLEXes are an extremely heavily traded good. Also, they are generally viewed as a "sure thing" that won't tank, so many people invest in them. The buzz created by this potential change has increased demand far more than the actual change itself will
***
Wish list for PI:
*One-click input routing
*Copy product, inputs & outputs in factories
*Launchpad upgrades: twice the space, twice the cost, half the hassle! |
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.10.14 13:57:00 -
[8]
Edited by: Akita T on 14/10/2010 14:00:38
Originally by: DeBingJos
Originally by: Akita T
Most likely, the effect already happened waaaaaay before the appearance of the cause, and with amplified magnitude. I suspect once PLEX-for-remap goes live, PLEX prices will actually go DOWN.
May I ask why you think this? Because after the plex-for-remap patch goes live people will start using plex for remaps.
[...]
Why would the plex-supply go up?
(click to enlarge)
Notice how in September 2009 throughout early March 2010, PLEX prices very slowly dropped.
In March-April they clearly shifted to a higher level, and other than (relatively small) fluctuations they were somewhat steady until early August.
From August 2010 onward, they were on a more or less steady climb trend, with the larger subsequent spikes in early September and early October.
The Sep-Mar drop was normal(-ish), just like the relatively steady Apr-Aug price - during summers the trend of GTC//PLEX prices is usually upwards, during winter the trend is usually downwards.
The March-April mini-spike was probably a delayed aftershock of the "PLEX for Haiti" campaign, or there could be other less obvious reasons. It wasn't a huge jump anyway, and it sort of matched the end of the spring, so not very unusual.
The August rise can be explained by the vacation season kicking in, ramping up the natural summer upwards trend.
The only "UNUSUAL" stuff happened in September-October of this year.
Now what exactly could have happened then ?
What else, except the ANNOUNCEMENT (by players) that on the SiSi server you can use PLEX to do remaps.
And then, the indirect confirmation from CCP that it would actually happen.
The "demand spike" for PLEX for remap purposes already happened, BEFORE it was even possible to do it, thanks to speculation - both a small one from an individual consumer level (for most people that would be interested in using PLEX for remaps) and a much larger one on a speculator level (betting that PLEX prices would settle at a higher level after the change goes live).
There is little reason to believe the ACTUAL demand level after PLEX-for-remap would be introduced will surpass the speculation-driven demand (which will cease existing soon after the change goes live), so the natural trend for the price after the change goes live will soon be DOWNWARDS, on top of the already natural downwards trend during the winter.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Matalino
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Posted - 2010.10.14 14:43:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Akita T
Most likely, the effect already happened waaaaaay before the appearance of the cause, and with amplified magnitude.
I suspect once PLEX-for-remap goes live, PLEX prices will actually go DOWN.
This!
Market speculation now, market correction later.
I also expect that much of the current demand is from speculators who think that demand for PLEX's will skyrocket with PLEX-for-remap. Noob market speculators see that PLEX's are climbing fast so they jump in, driving the price even higher. Then in a few months, when the speculators realize that people aren't remaping every month and that the new demand for PLEX's because of PLEX-for-remap is insignificant compared to existing dynamics, then they will attempt to unload and the market will collapse. When that happens, you can count on several people posting about how Eve is doomed and something should be done to keep PLEX's at there hyper-inflated price.
This has happened before and it will happen again. Eve markets are volitile.
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Max Cetera
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Posted - 2010.10.14 19:40:00 -
[10]
Originally by: DeBingJos
Please give me your oppinions what do you think will happen to the plex-market if CCP allows us to trade a plex for a neural remap?
Will the price of plex rise because they will be used more? (More demand = higher price) What kind of price increase are you thinking about?
People will be remapping every month, so they can finally train stuff in a normal order while still having max training speed possible. This will triple the demand (people using plex for remap will also remap and others will buy plexes just for remaps)
The effects ? PLEX price will triple and thus RMT noobies won't need to sell as many plex (3 times less actually) which will triple the price again. Expect PLEX @ 2.7b by the time Incursion is availaible.
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Byuk Gho
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Posted - 2010.10.14 19:51:00 -
[11]
Originally by: gn730qn4gjq3n4gqn348gnq3
Originally by: DeBingJos
More demand = higher price
Fixed that for you.
Fixed your ****ty fix.
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Dana Gilmour
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Posted - 2010.10.14 20:34:00 -
[12]
Edited by: Dana Gilmour on 14/10/2010 20:36:16
Originally by: Max Cetera
People will be remapping every month, so they can finally train stuff in a normal order while still having max training speed possible. This will triple the demand (people using plex for remap will also remap and others will buy plexes just for remaps)
The effects ? PLEX price will triple and thus RMT noobies won't need to sell as many plex (3 times less actually) which will triple the price again. Expect PLEX @ 2.7b by the time Incursion is availaible.
What are trolls doing in a spaceship game? Go back into the woods or whatever?
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Ash Donai
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Posted - 2010.10.14 20:52:00 -
[13]
Plex price only goes one way, UP and UP.
For a large number of players two conditions apply; Their RL time is worthless and their ability to generate ISK (at times through automation) is only limited by daily downtime. If you grind a billion ISK a day you don't care whether a PLEX costs 300 mil or 3 bil, because you have very little to spend ISK on either which way.
For a different large number of players two conditions apply; To them their RL time has inherent worth which they can express in RL currency and more and more people realize that it makes sense to them to trade RL currency for instant in-game rewards.
Those two groups and four conditions govern time code sales. Both groups are growing strong but the second group is more rational than the first and hence the growth of the second group, people willing to spend RL cash on in-game rewards, is limited and far outpaced by those who's time is worthless and ISK generation is limitless.
Remap or not, time codes go up because if the above is true there is no circumstance under which a lower price would make any sense at all. |
Dana Gilmour
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Posted - 2010.10.14 21:00:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Ash Donai
Plex price only goes one way, UP and UP.
For a large number of players two conditions apply; Their RL time is worthless and their ability to generate ISK (at times through automation) is only limited by daily downtime. If you grind a billion ISK a day you don't care whether a PLEX costs 300 mil or 3 bil, because you have very little to spend ISK on either which way.
For a different large number of players two conditions apply; To them their RL time has inherent worth which they can express in RL currency and more and more people realize that it makes sense to them to trade RL currency for instant in-game rewards.
Those two groups and four conditions govern time code sales. Both groups are growing strong but the second group is more rational than the first and hence the growth of the second group, people willing to spend RL cash on in-game rewards, is limited and far outpaced by those who's time is worthless and ISK generation is limitless.
Remap or not, time codes go up because if the above is true there is no circumstance under which a lower price would make any sense at all.
Yep and real estate price can only go UP and UP. Oh wait.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.10.14 21:02:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Ash Donai
Plex price only goes one way, UP and UP.
The market price graph disagrees with you.
And before PLEX even existed, GTC sales price forum history disagrees with you too.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Dana Gilmour
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Posted - 2010.10.14 21:07:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Ash Donai
Plex price only goes one way, UP and UP.
The market price graph disagrees with you.
And before PLEX even existed, GTC sales price forum history disagrees with you too.
But read the lines from which he drawn the conclusion. Such fine social analysis, such vast knowledge of the human psychology. And all you can bring against him is common sense, logic and a bunch a graphs? Come on, we were expecting more from you, Akita.
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Ash Donai
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Posted - 2010.10.14 21:21:00 -
[17]
Edited by: Ash Donai on 14/10/2010 21:25:30
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Ash Donai
Plex price only goes one way, UP and UP.
The market price graph disagrees with you.
Really?
Maybe we are looking at different graphs then ..., because if I look at http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/2705/plexprices.jpg what I see is that the plex price went up. Local lows are irrelevant to the overall trend. I fondly remember purchasing 30d GTCs for 110, but again, considering that we are close to 400 now it seems to me that 400 is indeed higher than 100, of course it could be that my math is off, but I don't think so, it's pretty basic really.
Originally by: Dana Gilmour
Yep and real estate price can only go UP and UP. Oh wait.
It sure does. That your 500k home is only worth 250k now doesn't mean anything unless you need to sell it now. Real estate is a very poor analogy though because it is inherently finite whereas the PLEX supply is infinite, at least in theory. Still, if you hold on to that 500k property that's only worth 250k now you will be able to sell it at a decent profit in the future, there are no two ways about that. |
Dana Gilmour
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Posted - 2010.10.14 21:33:00 -
[18]
Edited by: Dana Gilmour on 14/10/2010 21:34:10
Originally by: Ash Donai
That your 500k home is only worth 250k now doesn't mean anything unless you need to sell it now. Real estate is a very poor analogy though because it is inherently finite whereas the PLEX supply is infinite, at least in theory. Still, if you hold on to that 500k property that's only worth 250k now you will be able to sell it at a decent profit in the future, there are no two ways about that.
This is so laughable that even bothering to answer anything to it would be pointless. Can't really make it sound more ridiculous than it already is. I'll just add that besides social analysis and psychology, you obviously are an economics expert too. Keep on going, it's more and more amusing.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.10.14 21:47:00 -
[19]
Edited by: Akita T on 14/10/2010 21:50:19
Originally by: Ash Donai
Maybe we are looking at different graphs then ..., because if I look at http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/2705/plexprices.jpg what I see is that the plex price went up.
Except that during the summer of 2009 it was also up to nearly 400 mil ISK per PLEX//half-GTC, but it went down to 300 in late 2009 autumn and down to 260 in the spring of 2010.
EDIT : Just check between 2500-3000 pages back in the Timecode Bazaar every 50 pages or so.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Ash Donai
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Posted - 2010.10.14 21:51:00 -
[20]
Edited by: Ash Donai on 14/10/2010 21:56:21
Originally by: Dana Gilmour
This is so laughable that even bothering to answer anything to it would be pointless. Can't really make it sound more ridiculous than it already is. I'll just add that besides social analysis and psychology, you obviously are an economics expert too. Keep on going, it's more and more amusing.
Your posts illustrate that there really is no such thing as common sense, however, those who are capable of rational thought will realize that a buyers and sellers who have time on their side will make profit.
But since you seem so sure of yourself, why don't you offer to sell me a set number of PLEX at lower than todays price one year from now? How about 100 PLEX for 250 each 365 days from today? Put your money where your mouth is.
Originally by: Akita T
Except that during the summer of 2009 it was also up to nearly 400 mil ISK per PLEX//half-GTC, but it went down to 300 in late 2009 autumn and down to 260 in the spring of 2010.
EDIT : Just check between 2500-3000 pages back in the Timecode Bazaar every 50 pages or so.
Good observation, however, the variables have significantly changed in favor of isk generation. The QEN didn't specify whether the bounties that make up the majority of the ISK influx were generated in hisec or in nullsec, but it is fair to consider that a significant amount of bounties is earned in anomalies which were only introduced in Dec(?) 2009. Higher PLEX prices are possible because the market will bear them, which happens because ISK generation is trival for those who have the time to do it the non-trading way. |
Dana Gilmour
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Posted - 2010.10.14 21:57:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Ash Donai
But since you seem so sure of yourself, why don't you offer to sell me a set number of PLEX at lower than todays price one year from now? How about 100 PLEX for 250 each 365 days from today? Put your money where your mouth is.
Or I could sell you today 100 PLEXes for 450 each. They are bound to raise forever so you'll win make a profit "sometimes in the future" anyway. Would you put your money where your mouth is?
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.10.14 21:58:00 -
[22]
Then how exactly do you explain the HUGE DROP in price from the spring/summer of 2009 high to autumn/winter of 2009 lows ?
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Ash Donai
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Posted - 2010.10.14 22:31:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Dana Gilmour
Or I could sell you today 100 PLEXes for 450 each. They are bound to raise forever so you'll win make a profit "sometimes in the future" anyway. Would you put your money where your mouth is?
Turns out that I don't have to, someone else already did it for me by buying up large quantities of PLEX at well above 400.
I am saying prices will continue to rise as a trend, ignoring local lows. You are saying that they will fall. I am saying that those who are willing and able to invest long term will make money, you are saying that they will lose money.
If you agree that my premises are correct then you have to arrive at the same conclusion. Other than CCP changing game mechanics to limit the influx of ISK there's really only one other way PLEX prices could fall significantly and that is if CCP's touted "new features" will miraculously attract a large number of new subscribers who in the majority choose to gain ISK by selling PLEX and thus create a situation where the supply far exceeds the demand. PLEX speculation aside we are, and have been, in a situation where the PLEX supply can't meet the demand.
Originally by: Akita T
Then how exactly do you explain the HUGE DROP in price from the spring/summer of 2009 high to autumn/winter of 2009 lows ?
Could be anything from fewer people playing in the summer, hence fewer sellers, to the RL economy recovering and folks having more disposable income. There are too many uncertain variables to adequately explain localized price fluctuations especially when they don't coincide with game mechanic changes. |
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.10.14 22:37:00 -
[24]
Edited by: Akita T on 14/10/2010 22:38:42
Originally by: Ash Donai
Could be anything from fewer people playing in the summer, hence fewer sellers, to the RL economy recovering and folks having more disposable income. There are too many uncertain variables to adequately explain localized price fluctuations especially when they don't coincide with game mechanic changes.
And why exactly are they supposed to have had any effect last year... but not at all this year, or NEXT year too, or the one after that and so on ?
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Dana Gilmour
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Posted - 2010.10.14 22:48:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Ash Donai
I am saying prices will continue to rise as a trend, ignoring local lows. You are saying that they will fall. I am saying that those who are willing and able to invest long term will make money, you are saying that they will lose money.
I am saying that what you see now is strictly the result of speculation based on the announcement of PLEX for remap. If you expect prices to rise by 20% per month you are living in another world. On long term, they could rise couple percent per year, but that's about it. What you are seeing now it's ridiculous.
Originally by: Akita T
Then how exactly do you explain the HUGE DROP in price from the spring/summer of 2009 high to autumn/winter of 2009 lows ?
Originally by: Ash Donai
Could be anything from fewer people playing in the summer, hence fewer sellers, to the RL economy recovering and folks having more disposable income. There are too many uncertain variables to adequately explain localized price fluctuations especially when they don't coincide with game mechanic changes.
Clearly, price decreasing to normal after an artificial bubble is a hard thing to explain.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.10.14 22:54:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Dana Gilmour
Clearly, price decreasing to normal after an artificial bubble is a hard thing to explain
...especially when the one trying to "explain" is probably one of the persons that already heavily invested in PLEX stocks a bit late hoping for yet another big price spike 
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Ash Donai
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Posted - 2010.10.14 23:34:00 -
[27]
Edited by: Ash Donai on 14/10/2010 23:41:58
Edited by: Ash Donai on 14/10/2010 23:36:16
Originally by: Dana Gilmour
I am saying that what you see now is strictly the result of speculation based on the announcement of PLEX for remap. If you expect prices to rise by 20% per month you are living in another world. On long term, they could rise couple percent per year, but that's about it. What you are seeing now it's ridiculous.
I don't expect a 20% rise per month, but history shows that it's more than 20% per year. I think I got that right, ETCs were first out in 2006 at let's say 120M/30d, speculation aside let's call the current market price 340, that's still roughly 30% per year. For an investment that essentially requires zero effort that's a pretty damn good return. Do I expect the PLEX price to be 440M in one year? I think it's quite possible because the price of a PLEX is completely arbitrary (unless you want to tie it to RMT prices). We are currently seeing players paying 780M for 60d cards. Those guys could easily grab a cheaper 30d card in hopes of prices coming down after the expansion hits, yet they are willingly paying the asking price faster than one can supply 60d codes.
Originally by: Dana Gilmour
Originally by: Akita T
Then how exactly do you explain the HUGE DROP in price from the spring/summer of 2009 high to autumn/winter of 2009 lows ?
Originally by: Ash Donai
Could be anything from fewer people playing in the summer, hence fewer sellers, to the RL economy recovering and folks having more disposable income. There are too many uncertain variables to adequately explain localized price fluctuations especially when they don't coincide with game mechanic changes.
Clearly, price decreasing to normal after an artificial bubble is a hard thing to explain.
That's just the thing! There is no normal with PLEX/GTCs.
If you look at the drops past the hikes the drops never returned to previous "low" levels. That's what I mean with it going UP and UP.
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Dana Gilmour
Clearly, price decreasing to normal after an artificial bubble is a hard thing to explain
...especially when the one trying to "explain" is probably one of the persons that already heavily invested in PLEX stocks a bit late hoping for yet another big price spike
Erm, Tech was hyped up on the forums and linked on the blogs and whatnot, so yeah some MD threads can actually have a market impact. PLEX/GTC prices going up isn't unusual enough to be widely reported and have the plebs running to log in and grab some cheap ones really quick. I on the other hand can honestly say that I have less than 10 trades a day in my logs across all characters these days. Why? Because I simply don't need to spend time to make any more ISK since there's nothing to spend that ISK on from where I am looking. I can pay for my subscriptions and losses for years to come, that's all that really matters, I don't need to have the largest wallet in EVE. |
Dana Gilmour
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Posted - 2010.10.14 23:40:00 -
[28]
Edited by: Dana Gilmour on 14/10/2010 23:42:55
Originally by: Ash Donai
I don't expect a 20% rise per month, but history shows that it's more than 20% per year. I think I got that right, ETCs were first out in 2006 at let's say 120M/30d, speculation aside let's call the current market price 340, that's still roughly 30% per year.
You might want to read on Exponential Growth and then do some math. The results will be really surprising (for you that is).
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Ash Donai
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Posted - 2010.10.14 23:44:00 -
[29]
Originally by: Dana Gilmour
Edited by: Dana Gilmour on 14/10/2010 23:42:55
Originally by: Ash Donai
I don't expect a 20% rise per month, but history shows that it's more than 20% per year. I think I got that right, ETCs were first out in 2006 at let's say 120M/30d, speculation aside let's call the current market price 340, that's still roughly 30% per year.
You might want to read on Exponential Growth and then do some math. The results will be really surprising (for you that is).
Pretty sure that the burden of proof that GTC prices were rising exponentially is on you, especially since as soon as Amber nearly monopolized the GTC trade there was nothing exponential about the pricing, nor does the graph previously linked in here bears any resemblance to exponential growth. |
Dana Gilmour
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Posted - 2010.10.14 23:47:00 -
[30]
Edited by: Dana Gilmour on 14/10/2010 23:50:53
Originally by: Ash Donai
Originally by: Dana Gilmour
Edited by: Dana Gilmour on 14/10/2010 23:42:55
Originally by: Ash Donai
I don't expect a 20% rise per month, but history shows that it's more than 20% per year. I think I got that right, ETCs were first out in 2006 at let's say 120M/30d, speculation aside let's call the current market price 340, that's still roughly 30% per year.
You might want to read on Exponential Growth and then do some math. The results will be really surprising (for you that is).
Pretty sure that the burden of proof that GTC prices were rising exponentially is on you, especially since as soon as Amber nearly monopolized the GTC trade there was nothing exponential about the pricing, nor does the graph previously linked in here bears any resemblance to exponential growth.
You don't seem to grasp what Exponential Growth means. You're embarrassing yourself really.
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