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ABOUT INVENTIONS CHANCE - AGAIN

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KeDaLbE	Posted - 2010.11.08 21:13:00 - [1] Probably the 100th topic on this subject... and CCP would never acknowledge that something is wrong. I have this char with over 25 mil SPs in science and i use it for invention. Lately ( since tyrannis ) the rate of success dropped dramatically. I mean, when from 27 golem bpc invention jobs, ran with all the skills at 5, plus decryptors which are stated to raise the probability, i only get 2 successes, i might THINK i am unlucky. But when the next batch, 11 jobs for kronos bpc, same conditions - skills at 5 and decryptors, ALL FAILED, i do not think this is bad luck anymore. I mean, simple statistics, at 50% chance for each job, having 11 jobs fail is the same probability as having 11 jobs succeed : 1 in 2048 ! For the first example ( the golem one ), the chance for the result was under 1 in 10 millions. Now HOW UNLUCKY SHOULD ONE BE TO GET THIS ?
Helen Hunts Gallente Red Dragon Mining inc Red Dragon Industries	Posted - 2010.11.08 21:43:00 - [2] It's just you. CCP just doesn't like you no more. Seriously though, the chance for any particular job is completely independent of any other result on any other job. Now if you had 10k+ jobs as a sample size, you might have some merit in your panic. _______________________________ Mine da rocks, make more ships. Pop da rats, make more rigs. Sell da gear, make more money. Any Questions?
Maresalu	Posted - 2010.11.08 23:15:00 - [3] Originally by: Helen Hunts It's just you. CCP just doesn't like you no more. Seriously though, the chance for any particular job is completely independent of any other result on any other job. Now if you had 10k+ jobs as a sample size, you might have some merit in your panic. That's the most hilarious "advised" answer i have ever read. Clearly you have no clue about probabilities. To OP : EVE is CCPs game, so they do what they want with it. I do not trust CCP to be fair since chose to help BoB 2 years ago with some "extra" BPOs. Some invention BPCs price stays lower than the price of the materials involved for a pretty long time now - it is obvious that some people are "favored" with extra chances. Its their game. Accept it. Or, if you don't like that, stop paying and stop playing.
Khaemwese	Posted - 2010.11.08 23:33:00 - [4] 27 jobs is HARDLY a good enough sample for you to take any conclusions. Come back after some 200+ attempts and you MAY have something more concrete to complain about. I have failed 20 inventions in a row on a 46% chance of success in the past. Chance is chance, not some CCP vodoo magic or hack. The only statistical certainty is that the more you try, the closer you will get to the result you expect based on your chance of success.
Breaker77 Gallente Reclamation Industries	Posted - 2010.11.08 23:39:00 - [5] Originally by: Khaemwese Come back after some 200+ attempts and you MAY have something more concrete to complain about. This TBH Then again it might explain why I am getting more successes than I should. I'm getting all yours I owe you a big thank you!
Kanatta Jing	Posted - 2010.11.08 23:39:00 - [6] Originally by: Maresalu That's the most hilarious "advised" answer i have ever read. Clearly you have no clue about probabilities. Crying foul and cheat when a coin lands tails 5 times in a row is something problem gamblers, with some fool notion that the universe and hence math is obliged to be nice to them, tend to do. Try to remember that invention is gambling, as such there are winners and losers, and bigger winners and even bigger losers.
CharmingButIrrational Roswell Project Victimz	Posted - 2010.11.08 23:56:00 - [7] Originally by: Maresalu To OP : EVE is CCPs game, so they do what they want with it. I do not trust CCP to be fair since chose to help BoB 2 years ago with some "extra" BPOs. Some invention BPCs price stays lower than the price of the materials involved for a pretty long time now - it is obvious that some people are "favored" with extra chances. Its their game. Accept it. Or, if you don't like that, stop paying and stop playing. never enough :tinfoil:
Maresalu	Posted - 2010.11.09 00:05:00 - [8] Originally by: Kanatta Jing Originally by: Maresalu That's the most hilarious "advised" answer i have ever read. Clearly you have no clue about probabilities. Crying foul and cheat when a coin lands tails 5 times in a row is something problem gamblers, with some fool notion that the universe and hence math is obliged to be nice to them, tend to do. Try to remember that invention is gambling, as such there are winners and losers, and bigger winners and even bigger losers. For a coin to land tails 5 times in a row there is a 1 in 32 chance. To land tails 20 times in a row, its 1 in a million. Pretty big difference, don't you think ? As for "crying foul and cheat" : i did not suggest that CCP is cheating. I said they favor some players over others. Now if you take that as cheating, you are probably right; this is their game and therefor their property, but that does not mean that if you break chess rules in a game just because you own the chess set is not cheating. This is not a supposition; it is a fact. http://www.escapistmagazine.com/articles/view/editorials/op-ed/847-Jumpgate-EVEs-Devs-and-the-Friends-They-Keep. Therefor i don't trust CCP, and between a "one-in-a-million bad luck" and "CCP cheating" i definitively believe the latter.
Axemaster	Posted - 2010.11.09 00:17:00 - [9] Originally by: Maresalu Originally by: Kanatta Jing Originally by: Maresalu That's the most hilarious "advised" answer i have ever read. Clearly you have no clue about probabilities. Crying foul and cheat when a coin lands tails 5 times in a row is something problem gamblers, with some fool notion that the universe and hence math is obliged to be nice to them, tend to do. Try to remember that invention is gambling, as such there are winners and losers, and bigger winners and even bigger losers. For a coin to land tails 5 times in a row there is a 1 in 32 chance. To land tails 20 times in a row, its 1 in a million. Pretty big difference, don't you think ? As for "crying foul and cheat" : i did not suggest that CCP is cheating. I said they favor some players over others. Now if you take that as cheating, you are probably right; this is their game and therefor their property, but that does not mean that if you break chess rules in a game just because you own the chess set is not cheating. This is not a supposition; it is a fact. http://www.escapistmagazine.com/articles/view/editorials/op-ed/847-Jumpgate-EVEs-Devs-and-the-Friends-They-Keep. Therefor i don't trust CCP, and between a "one-in-a-million bad luck" and "CCP cheating" i definitively believe the latter. Oh yeah, 'cause you're totally important enough for Eve devs to risk losing their jobs just to grief you a little. You're either very conceited or very dumb.
Sinful Injustice	Posted - 2010.11.09 00:28:00 - [10] Edited by: Sinful Injustice on 09/11/2010 00:28:35 You're looking at this the wrong way round. 27 straight failures at a 50% chance of each failing independently of the others actually means you managed to hit that 1 in 134217728 chance. Maybe it's time to go buy a lottery ticket

Khaemwese	Posted - 2010.11.09 00:45:00 - [11] There is a huge difference between giving out BPOs and making changes on the code to change inventions chance of success. The first only requires an GM/Dev account and the his actions can be easily covered by purging log entries, whereas the later requires parts of the code that are visible to every developer to be changed. So you're comparing oranges to apples here...
Spatha Gallente The Dawn League	Posted - 2010.11.09 01:39:00 - [12] Originally by: Maresalu For a coin to land tails 5 times in a row there is a 1 in 32 chance. To land tails 20 times in a row, its 1 in a million. Pretty big difference, don't you think ? We're not talking about twenty flips in a row, we're talking about eleven in the OP's case, a sequence which should occur hundreds of times more frequently. This is not a subtle distinction--there are easily more than a couple thousand characters performing these sorts of invention chains every day, which means that the sort of bad luck seen by the OP is not only possible on a daily basis, but is in fact fairly likely. Flip enough coins, you'll see all sorts of individually improbable events. Without a vastly larger sample size, any sort of conspiracy theory about sabotaged invention chances is wildly off-base. This, even setting aside the obvious selection effect at work here: if the OP had nailed all eleven jobs, we wouldn't be hearing about it in this forum. So, bad luck OP, try again tomorrow. We feel your pain :-) Spatha
Keta Fraal Nul and Booleans	Posted - 2010.11.09 04:30:00 - [13] Originally by: Spatha Edited by: Spatha on 09/11/2010 01:47:09 what was the computed success chance each individual golem invention? You imply that you expected a 50% hit rate, but only quote a success chance for the separate run of eleven. I agree with Spatha. If I bet that my next 20 coin tosses would result in all tails and won its different than looking back at a set of 20 coin tosses and saying it's not probable. Each coin toss is still a 50% chance of failure. Picking a set of twenty out of innumerable attempts would be like buying a very large (expensive) number of lottery tickets and winning. --------------------------------------- I never asked for dancing babies, but OK
Dasola Minmatar	Posted - 2010.11.09 04:54:00 - [14] You know, we only hear people complain invention when they hit bad series. Why you newer complain when you strike good series and get more then you should? You thank your good fortune then, so why is bad streak different? Just becouse you have say 40% chance, its not garantie that you get that in short runs. It just that chance per try. When sample size starts to grow significantly you usually start to aproach that ratio. But 10, 100 maybe even 1000 is not enough sample size. Theres 300.000 accounts and unknown number of them invents. Your having badluck today, someone else is having good luck today...
Maresalu	Posted - 2010.11.09 06:45:00 - [15] Originally by: Keta Fraal I agree with Spatha. If I bet that my next 20 coin tosses would result in all tails and won its different than looking back at a set of 20 coin tosses and saying it's not probable. Each coin toss is still a 50% chance of failure. Picking a set of twenty out of innumerable attempts would be like buying a very large (expensive) number of lottery tickets and winning. Oh boy Everybody wants to say something without having any idea what they are talking about. According to your thinking, winning at lottery should be sooo easy - after all, you have 1 in 49 chances to nail each result individually ( actually 1 in 49 for the first, 1 in 48 for second and so on ). Or even 1 in 3 for those lotteries where you do soccer bets. This forum is full of VERY lucky ( and wealthy ) people that got so rich by winning lotteries. Why don't you go back to your school grade math teacher. As for the the ones that can only reply "you're dumb" - those obviously do not deserve an answer. As a small advice : try and read something before leaning on the keyboard : http://math-blog.com/2009/08/24/the-cost-of-not-understanding-probability-theory/ To quote : the probability to land a coin tails 10 times in a row is approx 0.0009766. Not 0.5 as you imply. Eat fish. Grow a brain. And that's it. I will not read or reply to this forum any longer, it is completely useless to argue with people that have no idea but they are convinced they know better. You can continue and reinvent probability theory here.
Aphrodite Skripalle Galactic Defence Consortium	Posted - 2010.11.09 08:21:00 - [16] The problem is, after all this bugs after the latest patches there is only little trust in ccp left. If i see all this new bugs everywhere and the answers i get in some of my petitions, i aggree, that in some cases ccp would never acknowledge that something is wrong. And for me as a user i cant see that someone is working hard to get rid of all this bugs, because every new patch we get tons of even more bugs, then we had with the last patch. Thats the problem ! Everything works as intended. Servers dont show anything wrong.
RaTTuS BIG Majesta Empire	Posted - 2010.11.09 10:08:00 - [17] I'll just stick my ore in and say they last 60 invention jobs I did I got 59 good results [the 1st one was a fail] Oh I', in the NC so that explains it.. --
Lutz Major Austriae Est Imperare Orbi Universo	Posted - 2010.11.09 10:24:00 - [18] Originally by: Maresalu I will not read or reply to this forum any longer ... Yes please do that, because you don't have any clue about probability and chance. You mix those terms like they were the same. So, please stay away from any other (probability) thread too! Thank you.
Riho Gallente Enterprise Estonia Cult of War	Posted - 2010.11.09 11:30:00 - [19] i do about 500 jobs per week and it avg down to about 50% overall most of the time. so no point going tinfoil :P ---------------------------------- Fighting for something
Sawhorse	Posted - 2010.11.09 11:38:00 - [20] I have been sat in this chair before as well, So i know exactly how frustrating it is especially if you are using the likes of tuning instructions etc that aint cheap. However what i can say is that in the end it all works out. Here is a quick example. I had 33 Golem inventions all fail in a row once with the same decrypters and skills as your good self and immediately took to this forum with a complaint.I actually got the same answers as you my friend. IE not what i was looking for. 2 things i have learnt are this.... 1. forget the probability crap as it doesnt really mean jack in my experience.The odds and probabilitys are taken over such a massive scale it is irrelevant for you to even consider counting them. 2. One day in the near future you will have some good results coming your way and here is an example. Only last week i did 22 inventions consisting of....... 5 RHEA, and 17 Golem inventions all with tuning instructions. Luckily i got 4 out of 5 RHEA bpc,s and 14 out of 17 Golem bpc,s.Needless to say the ods of that are pretty slim to say the least but it did happen. Also from experience i am well aware that the shoe can also be worn on the other foot So here is my summery to invention which may help you out mate. Try not to treat invention purely based on stats and probabilities. Treat it like getting laid off your wife after 10 years of marriage,It should happen fairly often but doesnt, Take what you can when you can and make the most of it. Once again sorry for your loss but trust me sooner or later the tables will turn. Kind regards Cap & T2 builder/inventor with MANY cap BPC 5 run copies in stock Sawhorse

Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2010.11.09 11:49:00 - [21] Maresalu, mai calm un pic... just chill. There are two factors that are relevant to some degree here. First off, the invention formula itself and how it's being applied. It _IS_ conceited to assume some individuals are being SPECIFICALLY targeted by having them and only them use different versions (be it more or be it less advantageous overall) of the invention rules, and the same applies for pretty much everybody coming in here after any sort of patch and claiming the invention formula changed due to the fact they're all of a sudden getting much better or much worse results. The truth is that in the vast majority of cases, after considering all factors and calculating with the most likely chance numbers, statistically speaking the obtained result is NOT abnormal at all. It is, as you could call it, "luck". Second, and this is highly debatable, the EVE Random Number Generator and its alleged abnormal tendency to yield "streaks". Quite a few of the items on the list of cognitive biases are at work here, chiefly confirmation bias (interpret neutral information as confirming preconceptions), expectation bias (discard inconvenient data), negativity bias (pay much more attention to negative results), clustering illusion (see patterns where none exist) and recency effect (take recent events at disproportionately high importance levels). The EVE RNG does NOT operate JUST on invention. It operates on invention, ECM effects (both player and NPC) and any other chance-involved effect in EVE, but most importantly (from a sheer number-of-uses standpoint) on ALL WEAPON TURRET SHOTS (both NPCs and players). And it's common across the entire node, which can span hundreds of solar systems and affect thousands of online users. Now, no computer-generated RNG is truly random, no matter how hard you try to make it SEEM random. And taking the small sample output that's used for invention, or more precisely, those affecting only one of the inventors, and even more precisely, an even smaller sample of that subsample or the other subsample... well... it would be unusual if it wouldn't appear as if it's "unusually streaky" at times for some people. I'm sure the entire computer science field would appreciate any of you coming up with a BETTER way to generate pseudo-random numbers on a computer... so unless you can do that, you'll have to just grumble and bear with it. Now, I'm not saying I am absolutely certain the EVE RNG is working A-OK for everybody at all times. I'm just saying you shouldn't cry wolf just because you've seen a few loose wolf-like hairs on the ground. _ Beginner's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper \| All about reacting _
xAlexVladx	Posted - 2010.11.09 12:54:00 - [22] Originally by: Maresalu To quote : the probability to land a coin tails 10 times in a row is approx 0.0009766. Not 0.5 as you imply. Eat fish. Grow a brain. And that's it. I will not read or reply to this forum any longer, it is completely useless to argue with people that have no idea but they are convinced they know better. You can continue and reinvent probability theory here. Lol probability works different in eve that's for sure. In RL if you ask about the coin tossing problem, you would hardly find 1 in 30-40 people to argue with you things like "probability and chance are different issues" or "50-50% chance for each toss therefor 50% for all 10" or "you need 1000000000000 tosses to have a good chance to get a head not only tails". Or even better, the usual all-purpose response, "you're dumb". In RL the probability to find 20 such idiots in a row is close to zero. On EVE forums, this infinitesimal probability becomes a certainty :)
Khaemwese	Posted - 2010.11.09 15:06:00 - [23] Have you guys ever considered that the invention engine uses some random generated number for all of the inventions, so the chance is not only based on your skills, but on the server random pick as well and that is one server for all. So the sampling has to take in account all results, not only yours. If you are on a loosing streak, I can guarantee someone else is on a winning one ;)
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2010.11.09 15:13:00 - [24] Originally by: Khaemwese Have you guys ever considered bottom half post #21, two above yours _ Beginner's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper \| All about reacting _
Stupid McStupidson Gallente Hoek Lyne and Sinker	Posted - 2010.11.09 18:00:00 - [25] I really wish there were a function on the forums to filter and block threads with "invention" and "stealth nerf" in the title or first post.
Matthew Caldari BloodStar Technologies	Posted - 2010.11.09 19:27:00 - [26] Another thing to bear in mind is that just because a given event has a very low chance of happening, does not mean that it will never happen. The chance of any individual winning a national lottery is extremely small, yet it happens every week. Similarly, while the chance of a long streak of fails is unlikely for an individual, the chance of that streak occurring somewhere within the huge number of invention jobs done across the universe quickly grows to be significant. With thousands of players running millions of jobs, some players are going to get unlucky and experience outlier events. Which gives us another good indication that this isn't really a problem - every time these things come up on the forums, it's one or two players. If there was a genuine issue with the underlying probability engine, then there would be a threadnaught of unhappy inventors, rather than one or two unluckly players. In fact, it could probably be argued that a consistent low level of invention nerf threads is probably a good indication that the invention system is working correctly. ------- There is no magic Wand of Fixing, and it is not powered by forum whines.
Enord Loej Caldari Dreddit Test Alliance Please Ignore	Posted - 2010.11.09 20:58:00 - [27] If I wasn't too lazy to read your post I probably could take your numbers and calculate the chance of getting as many failures as you did. I can however, guarantee it wont be zero.
Noun Verber Gallente	Posted - 2010.11.10 09:27:00 - [28] Chance of success goes down the more you post complaints about it.
Saulstarinsh	Posted - 2010.11.13 10:29:00 - [29] Originally by: KeDaLbE Probably the 100th topic on this subject... and CCP would never acknowledge that something is wrong. I have this char with over 25 mil SPs in science and i use it for invention. Lately ( since tyrannis ) the rate of success dropped dramatically. I mean, when from 27 golem bpc invention jobs, ran with all the skills at 5, plus decryptors which are stated to raise the probability, i only get 2 successes, i might THINK i am unlucky. But when the next batch, 11 jobs for kronos bpc, same conditions - skills at 5 and decryptors, ALL FAILED, i do not think this is bad luck anymore. I mean, simple statistics, at 50% chance for each job, having 11 jobs fail is the same probability as having 11 jobs succeed : 1 in 2048 ! For the first example ( the golem one ), the chance for the result was under 1 in 10 millions. Now HOW UNLUCKY SHOULD ONE BE TO GET THIS ? must be 27%
Khaemwese	Posted - 2010.11.13 19:10:00 - [30] Originally by: Akita T Originally by: Khaemwese Have you guys ever considered bottom half post #21, two above yours Bah... Getting old and can't even read anymore... Not sure how I missed it, but yes, you got it.



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