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Drone Bei
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Posted - 2011.02.18 13:19:00 -
[1]
We all know about the time leading up to Hulkageddon where miners and market wizards are stockpiling minerals, mining vessels, ganking ships, and modules then dumping them during the event for higher than usual prices.
But what happens after Hulkageddon? Obviously the prices of the mentioned items will come back down, but are there opportunities for speculation for the few weeks after the event?
Let me know if you saw anything last year that provided a chance to make some ISK or your theories on the market changes after Hulkageddon.
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Lutz Major
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Posted - 2011.02.18 15:07:00 -
[2]
 Originally by: Drone Bei
Let me know if you saw anything last year that provided a chance to make some ISK or your theories on the market changes after Hulkageddon.
Sure. I think I can give you my trade secrets. After all, you asked nicely: travel back three months in time, buy as much Hulks you can afford and sell them afterwards.
Welcome to planning ahead.
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NinjaSpud
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Posted - 2011.02.18 15:17:00 -
[3]
the market is allready sturing. Mineral prices have risen signifigantly in the last two weeks, probably in preperation for both the market having less then normal minerals for a week, and for war machine cranking out destroyers and smartbombs.
I woud love to have access to the market fluctuation for the last several years. I think you could honestly do real life models and research based on that....hell I smell a college term paper in my marketing class haha 
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Xylengra
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Posted - 2011.02.18 15:29:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Drone Bei
We all know about the time leading up to Hulkageddon where miners and market wizards are stockpiling minerals, mining vessels, ganking ships, and modules then dumping them during the event for higher than usual prices.
But what happens after Hulkageddon? Obviously the prices of the mentioned items will come back down, but are there opportunities for speculation for the few weeks after the event?
Let me know if you saw anything last year that provided a chance to make some ISK or your theories on the market changes after Hulkageddon.
You would probably get better answers over in the Market Discussion forum, but, in my experience, the aftermarket effects are not nearly as exaggerated as one would expect. I find that I actually make more profit with exhumer and mining barge sales in the two-week period leading up to an event like Hulkageddon than after.
Keep in mind that even hardcore PvPers almost all have industrial alts, at least in part to fuel their PvP monetary needs. It would be a mistake to think of participants of Hulkageddon as completely separate entities. After all, blowing things up is a means to the end of increasing sales. They know that Hulkageddon is coming, and the majority of those targeted know that it is coming, so I think that explains why the largest profit-taking might happen before the event as opposed to after. Yes, of course, some poor fools will have believed themselves invulnerable and will need to buy new after their loss.
As with any other market 'thing', one can analyze it to death and still be wrong, as the market is driven by many intangibles and variables that simply cannot be quantified.
Jm2c
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Drone Bei
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Posted - 2011.02.18 15:43:00 -
[5]
Oops, I meant to put this on the market discussion forum, oh well.
I think that Hulkageddon is a very interested event both in terms of the social aspects and also the economic. Unlike real life, this provides a fairly reliable and cyclic market event in a market that is controlled by many of the same forces you see in the real life markets. Obviously there are a lot of fixed variables and controlled factors (CCP game manipulations) but I agree with you that it would be a great paper for a college student.
I clearly understand that the profit is made in the weeks leading to and during the event, but I'm still curious what occurs after. Is there going to be a huge volume of ships/modules that were overproduced and the price will overshoot the median price allowing for someone to buy up the excess stock before the market stabilizes? I don't care about making money since I have much more reliable ways to make ISK than speculation on the market, just curious about it.
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Richard Christy
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Posted - 2011.02.18 16:45:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Drone Bei
But what happens after Hulkageddon?
The Hulk manufacturers make more money. And the peons that did the killing can go back to being peons.
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LHA Tarawa
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Posted - 2011.02.19 00:55:00 -
[7]
pretty much nothing happens to the marekt around hulkageddon.
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Mighty Dread
Minmatar
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Posted - 2011.02.19 02:12:00 -
[8]
I think if EVE was a little more realistic all of high sec's asteroids would be depleted by now and the four empires would have to expand their space in order to claim more resources. The price of ships, modules, etc. would rise dramatically until new pockets of rich minerals could be found and harvested. Wars, combat, would be committed to only when absolutely necessary or quite profitable as it would be very costly, perhaps too costly, otherwise.
Instead we got this "Hulkageddon" creating an artificial rarity of resources in the market.
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Shieko Chan
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Posted - 2011.02.19 04:03:00 -
[9]
Quote:
the market is allready sturing. Mineral prices have risen signifigantly in the last two weeks
yes, they have... trit is up anyway. I think the cause may be a combination of ship losses since the sansha incursion and mineral speculation for hulkagadzooks.
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raney ilara
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Posted - 2011.02.19 04:09:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Mighty Dread
I think if EVE was a little more realistic all of high sec's asteroids would be depleted by now and the four empires would have to expand their space in order to claim more resources.
So you're saying we should have much more empire (high sec) space and ever fewer resources?
Yeah, I can see this happening.. limiting resources until no one can find enough material to manufacture anything and ship replacement prices skyrocket...good thing walking in stations is coming soon cuz' walking will be all you can afford to do if this is implemented.  |
Dr Sheepbringer
Gallente
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Posted - 2011.02.19 16:48:00 -
[11]
Less hulks. Less minerals. Means more demand, so it also means more price. Welcome to market economy.
Originally by: CCP Shadow
Dr. Sheepbringer -- It's not that kind of horn.
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Barbara Nichole
Cryogenic Consultancy
Black Sun Alliance
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Posted - 2011.02.20 02:35:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Dr Sheepbringer
Less hulks. Less minerals. Means more demand, so it also means more price. Welcome to market economy.
Yes, it is a free market economy.. but I'm kind of siding with the folks who say the spike in mineral pricing is mostly brought to us through the expansion losses. If hulkageddon were the reason for the increase I would expect more than just 3.32 on trit. We'll see what happens this next week. |
Dr Sheepbringer
Gallente
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Posted - 2011.02.20 19:42:00 -
[13]
Don't forget that people have stockpiles and will flood the market when the prices are up. Thus bringing it down.
Originally by: CCP Shadow
Dr. Sheepbringer -- It's not that kind of horn.
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Barbara Nichole
Cryogenic Consultancy
Black Sun Alliance
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Posted - 2011.02.21 01:24:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Dr Sheepbringer
Don't forget that people have stockpiles and will flood the market when the prices are up. Thus bringing it down.
Yes, I'm one of them. This is one reason I don't expect prices to soar too high. but it's also a reason I believe the recent rise in prices aren't really related to the hulkageddon event that much. Incursion has been here longer and will last much longer. |
Helicity Boson
Amarr
The Python Cartel.
The Defenders of Pen Island
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Posted - 2011.02.21 10:14:00 -
[15]
I'd need four times as many kills per day as we did over this weekend to even make the economy break even rather than build a surplus of isk. There are around 14-15k hulks alone in eve if the QEN is to be believed. As fun as the event is to run, I can't honestly say I believe we can have any significant impact on the mineral market, barring encouraging speculation and market manipulation.
The sheer number of bots out there is truly frightening; at this point I'm not even sure the economy could survive it if CCP -actually- banned them all.
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Barbara Nichole
Cryogenic Consultancy
Black Sun Alliance
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Posted - 2011.02.21 11:26:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Helicity Boson
I'd need four times as many kills per day as we did over this weekend to even make the economy break even rather than build a surplus of isk. There are around 14-15k hulks alone in eve if the QEN is to be believed. As fun as the event is to run, I can't honestly say I believe we can have any significant impact on the mineral market, barring encouraging speculation and market manipulation.
The sheer number of bots out there is truly frightening; at this point I'm not even sure the economy could survive it if CCP -actually- banned them all.
I agree with everything you say until the end. I don't believe all the miners people claim are bots are actually bots.. there are obviously some though. I've just seen too many so called bots turn out not to be bots.
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Psykikk Solette
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Posted - 2011.02.21 11:29:00 -
[17]
i always wonder when I read about bots if this is really true at all , like previous posters suggested. i played several MMORPGS in my days and "farming"-bots were most of all lil¦ chinese guys playing their butts off 24/7. or are bots in eve really that different,. like full automated scripts ?
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Helicity Boson
Amarr
The Python Cartel.
The Defenders of Pen Island
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Posted - 2011.02.21 12:28:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Psykikk Solette
i always wonder when I read about bots if this is really true at all , like previous posters suggested. i played several MMORPGS in my days and "farming"-bots were most of all lil¦ chinese guys playing their butts off 24/7. or are bots in eve really that different,. like full automated scripts ?
Yes. I'd link you to the various botter forums i get many many hits to the hulkageddon website from, but CCP frowns on that. A little google search suffices. Also try googling "summer of 10 an expose on RMT" go to the first link, and start reading on page 8 of the forum thread you are on. You will learn some truly disturbing things...
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Kithran
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Posted - 2011.02.21 12:41:00 -
[19]
One thing that is being missed in all this discussion regarding Hulkageddon is that is only a single 9 day period. What is far more likely to have an impact on mineral production is the effects of incursions. Bascially any unattended miner will be popped by sansha belt rats which means every high sec incrusion will wipe out all such miners in an entire constellation. Yes miners could dock but it still means 12 or so hours per incursion of inactivity, provided they are alert enough to dock before they pop (and yes they can scram as well in case you wondered).
Incursions have been going on for almost a month now and aren't going to go away.
Kithran
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Shakon
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Posted - 2011.02.21 12:58:00 -
[20]
Edited by: Shakon on 21/02/2011 12:59:39
Now now Boson rem you claimed this event was for fun. HAHAH considering half your prizes are from people who use alts to bot makes it Funny as hell.
Plus i doubt they are that many bots. Theres allot but i see Most in Ice fields or 0.0 theres more bots in Null sec allainces than real players.
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Tinu Moorhsum
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Posted - 2011.02.21 15:55:00 -
[21]
Edited by: Tinu Moorhsum on 21/02/2011 15:59:45
Originally by: Helicity Boson
The sheer number of bots out there is truly frightening; at this point I'm not even sure the economy could survive it if CCP -actually- banned them all.
At its most basic level there are two competing forces at work here.
On the one hand you have the inflationary pressure that is exerted by zero unemployment and the ease at which ISK is made. Bots, especially robo-ratters probably contribute significantly to amount of money in circulation and therefore the potential for inflation
On the other hand, most items in eve, including minerals, are offered in massive over-supply to the market, which in terms of macro economics traditionally has a "depressing" effect on prices. Other bots, in particular robo-miners probably contribute significantly to this side of the equation.
Above all that is the basic mechanic in this game that the economy is controlled by a "faucet and drain" model that can be manipulated behind the scenes in order to keep inflation (the number one problem in such games) under control.
In other words, CCP is holding all of the strings and they can control how much money goes in and how much money goes out of the economy. They do this in a multitude of ways, some of which you probably don't even realise.
Among the "drains" is incursions. It probably wasn't a coincidence that the first incursions showed up in areas where robo-players were active. Incursions is probably part of CCP's answer to botting. They can change and evolve incursions to suit the complexity of bots as they improve and they can create more or fewer incursions as necessary to keep the economy in some kind of equilibrium as both the inflationary and depressing forces of botting are slowly put in the thumbscrews.
And all of this
a) without changing the basic game play
b) giving us something new and interesting to try
c) without screwing up the economy.
So people, don't worry about incursions causing inflation. I'm sure CCP is watching closely to see what their new bot-killing engine does to the economy and I'm sure if things start to get to the point where supply and demand reach some kind of balance that they'll tune it to suit.
T-
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Helicity Boson
Amarr
The Python Cartel.
The Defenders of Pen Island
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Posted - 2011.02.21 17:03:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Shakon
Edited by: Shakon on 21/02/2011 12:59:39
Now now Boson rem you claimed this event was for fun. HAHAH considering half your prizes are from people who use alts to bot makes it Funny as hell.
Plus i doubt they are that many bots. Theres allot but i see Most in Ice fields or 0.0 theres more bots in Null sec allainces than real players.
They say the empty can rattles the most. And you sure rattle a lot.
I always love your uninformed opinions that you like to present as fact best.
Keep trying, maybe you'll get your fifteen minutes of fame for "telling me what's what".
loser lol. |
Khory Thunderstar
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Posted - 2011.02.21 18:09:00 -
[23]
I doubt there are any effects on the market after Hulkageddom.
During and a little bit before we prob. see a bit of a increase in the cost of mining mods and gank ships. But Hulkageddom is still too small of a event to really change such a big economy. You can clearly see this because most people simply ignore the event - the billions of ISK worth of damage that we do and the other billions that we take in the suicides are a very small part of EVE's economy.
Well, except for the poor sod that gets his hulk killed 4 times during this week.
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Helicity Boson
Amarr
The Python Cartel.
The Defenders of Pen Island
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Posted - 2011.02.21 19:25:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Khory Thunderstar
Well, except for the poor sod that gets his hulk killed 4 times during this week.
I wouldn't call that a poor sod. Slow learner maybe.
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Shakon
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Posted - 2011.02.21 20:24:00 -
[25]
HHHAHA so still caliming to be thirty and calling people a loser . Cry some more kid.. The Butt HUrt is strong within you.
Did Some one touch you in the wrong place to many times? You sure act like it. Certainly not 30ty like you claim. But hey its the internets you can be anything.
As for bots I still say there are far more in 0.0 than empire. Watch some of he big allainces put together big fleets for a war etc and yet still have couple hundred people ratting? Doesnt add up.
Plus event doesnt really do anything to the market. A few people might make some smal time isk off of it thats about it.
Now if "Mr Im 30ty and everyone else is a stupid kid" would help get one going to go kill bot ratters and such in 0.0 id throw in a couple bil Isk to help with prizes and or replace some ships lost doing it.
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Nebuch ad Netzar
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Posted - 2011.02.21 20:57:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Helicity Boson
Originally by: Khory Thunderstar
Well, except for the poor sod that gets his hulk killed 4 times during this week.
I wouldn't call that a poor sod. Slow learner maybe.
The real winners are the people who own those rare hulk BPO's, right Helicity?
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Dr Sheepbringer
Gallente
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Posted - 2011.02.21 21:03:00 -
[27]
Perhaps the only effect would be the volumes of Hulks on the market. Of course with people having the knowledge of this event in months before sort of fixes that problem. I mean you can't make a hulk in one night (actually, I'm not sure...never made'em). Of course there is more than enough hulks on the (as any other products) on the market anyways.
I think the biggest effect the event has in on supply lines. Not just POS etc. also including trade. We probably will have some scenarios where stuff is in place A and without the event it would have been at place B.
I personally ain't hauling anything at the moment, but I don't really have to either.
Originally by: CCP Shadow
Dr. Sheepbringer -- It's not that kind of horn.
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Helicity Boson
Amarr
The Python Cartel.
The Defenders of Pen Island
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Posted - 2011.02.21 22:21:00 -
[28]
Edited by: Helicity Boson on 21/02/2011 22:23:40
<double post blaagh>
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Helicity Boson
Amarr
The Python Cartel.
The Defenders of Pen Island
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Posted - 2011.02.21 22:23:00 -
[29]
Originally by: Nebuch ad Netzar
Originally by: Helicity Boson
Originally by: Khory Thunderstar
Well, except for the poor sod that gets his hulk killed 4 times during this week.
I wouldn't call that a poor sod. Slow learner maybe.
The real winners are the people who own those rare hulk BPO's, right Helicity?
presumably so yes, as well as the people that actually produce the dessies and T1 modules that go on them. Hardly my concern really, I just like to run the event and watching people like Shakon rage completely out of control. I make enough isk for my meager needs off pvp loot and my PI alt (primarily by not losing a lot of ships, I'm stupidly careful)
I dont have a problem with people making money off the event, rather I consider that clever play, and clever play deserves reward imho.
In fact, if you like, you could consult my API key posted in the hulkageddon killboard thread in C&P, subtract aaaaall the prizes, and then see I'm only worth about 3b myself, I quite enjoy getting by on only one account, it's part of what I think of as "fun" in the game.
I'll leave the huge wallets, extremely pricey ships and faction mods to people that like that sort of thing. Just give me a few T2 fitted ships and I'm a happy camper.
inb4 more rampant speculation that I'm some secret industrial giant; I don't even know how to use a blueprint anymore
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bilingi
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Posted - 2011.02.22 12:46:00 -
[30]
Who accused you of being an Industrial Giant? I have seen failed PvPer,greifer, and a Jerk which is true but never that.
As for Shakon I don't see any uncontrolled rage in his post. You on the other hand seem to enjoy insulting any that do not agree with you. Noticed that on several threads now.
Frankly do not see a big increase in cash but i do see allot of guys wrecks from failed attempts. Some small spikes of change as people try and get prices up that's about it. As i mainly mine and Build Hulkageddon really has no effect on anything i do. Well i got a good laugh out of some failed attempts.
I think only real complaint I have about it is they get insurance out of it and do not have to face any repercussions. Most i see are not old players and or are on ONLY during Hulkageddon.Some of them are on all the time most of those are the only ones actually risking anything.Those guys i can respect as they are taking a risk not much of one as they target people that really have no clue how to fight back but some risk nevr the less.
Plus I a biased i think all t2 bpos need to be removed. Make invention have a more even field.
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