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DarthNefarius
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Posted - 2011.03.01 01:18:00 -
[1]
this can't be random can it? My main toon has Terrible Amarr status so I'm effectively SHUT OUT OF ALL THE FUN!
This sucks CCP!
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DarthNefarius
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Posted - 2011.03.02 22:01:00 -
[2]
if this is true:
Amarr Empire - 459 systems found
Ammatar Mandate - 64 systems found
Caldari State - 228 systems found
Gallente Federation - 240 systems found
Khanid Kingdom - 45 systems found
Minmatar Republic - 176 systems found
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then this can't be random that now 9 high security spcae Incursions in a row have spawned in Amarr space. The last one spawned just ~6 systems from the last one it is in amarr too.
This sucks CCP I can't play in Incursions now
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DarthNefarius
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Posted - 2011.03.02 22:12:00 -
[3]
According to CCP the 9 high sec Incursions in a row are random
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DarthNefarius
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Posted - 2011.03.03 06:40:00 -
[4]
Tippia 9 in a row does not suggest a random distribution, but yes it is possible, take a statistics course or combinorics course you'll see though that we're an approaching an extreme outlier here though.
Math aside I was getting to have fun & joining the armour fleets I felt alot of comradeity competeing against the shield fleet for the MOM. ITS BEEN A WEEK SINCE I WAS LAST ABLE TO JOIN AN INCURSION FLEET. There was a Gall space low sec incursion I tried to join but the goons there said it was alliance only ( yes the alliance is named goons something). I understand why its alliance only because why would they trust anyone else in low sec. The last low sec incursion was there a week BTW & no other low sec incursions spawned did you notice? The distrribution is as much a random walk as the Brooklin rackets in the 1920's IMHO
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DarthNefarius
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Posted - 2011.03.03 09:13:00 -
[5]
you are showing your ignorance... by that design its not a random distribution. Go take math again. 9 Amarr incursions in a row means I've been lied to.
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DarthNefarius
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Posted - 2011.03.03 09:21:00 -
[6]
Sorry 9 hi sec incursions in a row means its not random unless a coin flip comes up heads come up much more then 9 times in a row given the # of non Amarr systems out there that are hi sec ( which added together is greater then the # of hi sec Amarr systems incidently)in all probability. I'm not even counting how many low & null sec systems are out there which tips the statistic tables further.
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DarthNefarius
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Posted - 2011.03.03 16:14:00 -
[7]
Now it is 10 high sec Incursions in Amarr space in a row. I pasted the numbers of hi sec Incursions in a previous post ( there are actually more non Amarr hi sec systems when added up BTW ) & did the math from my college Combinatorics based book I'm looking for my old statistics book next for distributions & outliers. Basically the odds... well they are on par with in a game of poker approach being dealt a royal plush already. Yes it is possible but no the distribution is askew
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DarthNefarius
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Posted - 2011.03.03 21:31:00 -
[8]
well 10 Amarr hi sec incursions in a row ( the previous 2 Amarrite Mandate ) is statistically beomming highly unlikely given the number of non Amarr high sec systems. It's ruining my game play and turning me off of the game. Oh as a newbie I didn't know about faction status meaning I can't go to other space and did alot of Amarr & Caldari faction mission so before I knew this adversely would effect me I found myself with terrible status in both. I can't go to Caldari space to fix and I've tried upping my diplo status with not enough of a change :(
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DarthNefarius
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Posted - 2011.03.04 00:18:00 -
[9]
My math off?
if this is true:
Amarr Empire - 459 systems found
Ammatar Mandate - 64 systems found
Caldari State - 228 systems found
Gallente Federation - 240 systems found
Khanid Kingdom - 45 systems found
Minmatar Republic - 176 systems found
total hi sec = 1212
Thus chance 1 amarr incursion is .378 (459/1212) chance 10 in a row = .000059
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DarthNefarius
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Posted - 2011.03.04 17:28:00 -
[10]
Sigh woke up to another Amarr Incursion which I'm locked out of. Tried going to the low sec Incursions but picking up a fleet there in the Incursion chat all I get is grief...
here are 114 constellations that contain only high sec systems.
Amarr Empire - 49 Constellations
Ammatar Mandate - 5 Constellations
Caldari State - 23 Constellations
Gallente Federation - 16 Constellations
Khanid Kingdom - 3 Constellations
Minmatar Republic - 18 Constellations
OK giving these numbers only chance from offstart that you'd get 11Amarr's in a row is around 1 in 10809 correct?
YAWN time to go play the lotto if karma comes back to me out I'll win
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DarthNefarius
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Posted - 2011.03.04 19:55:00 -
[11]
I thought that guy was WRONG!!! He chose numbers that support his arguement & still the odds are incredibly against 11 Amarr Incursions in a row by mere chance. The distribution of Amarr High Security is obviously askew CCP check your psedu random number generator or something pleeez I doubt I'll wait another week & lose interest here. Farmville is free and waiting for a Gall High Sec Incursion is no less boring
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DarthNefarius
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Posted - 2011.03.09 23:00:00 -
[12]
The low sec Incursions seem to be moving in a random status... most of them were despawning on thier own until Goonswarm started defeating them (congrats on the sucesses Vily sorry the bpc drops suck :). Null sec incursions are depawning on their own now and are languishing :( sorta like how my petition about the hi sec incursions is languishing in DEV ):
I would not doubt that Vily is correct about the hi sec incursion theory thus proving these incursions are not spawning randomly & are heavily askew to Amarr space.
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DarthNefarius
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Posted - 2011.03.10 16:32:00 -
[13]
SIGH   I wake up to see yet another Amarr Incursion. Those are getting killed off so fast CCP because over the past MONTH now almost all HIGH security space Incursions have been in Amarr space CCP DEV! The Caldari Incursion that was spawned lasted so long because its been like a month since the last Caldari Incursion. How long has it been since a Khanid Incursion?
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