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![DarthNefarius DarthNefarius](https://images.evetech.net/characters/90134627/portrait?size=64)
DarthNefarius
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Posted - 2011.03.02 22:12:00 -
[31]
According to CCP the 9 high sec Incursions in a row are random
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![Ranger 1 Ranger 1](https://images.evetech.net/characters/145328353/portrait?size=64)
Ranger 1
Amarr Paragon Fury Cascade Imminent
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Posted - 2011.03.02 22:51:00 -
[32]
Originally by: Grimpak
Originally by: Harbingour even though Amarr has the largest amount of systems outside of Null Sec... SEVEN HIGH SEC INCURSIONS IN A ROW!!! before the 7: 2 were Amatarr Mandate! The only low Sec Incursion is in Amarr space... granted low sec Incursions ALWAYS LANGUISH NOW because they are almost as bad death traps as NULL SEC Incursions
I just LOVE how you GO AND PUT certain PARTS of your POST in CAPS.
It's like you're SCREAMING every now and THEN.
IT'S HIS... Captain Kirk imitation, DO... YOU... like it? ===== The world will not end in 2012, however there will be a serious nerf to Planetary Interaction. |
![Hecatonis Hecatonis](https://images.evetech.net/characters/1950824309/portrait?size=64)
Hecatonis
Amarr
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Posted - 2011.03.02 23:22:00 -
[33]
should have picked a better race then ;)
__________________________________________________ stop acting like tw*ts and use your brain |
![Tippia Tippia](https://images.evetech.net/characters/1938874952/portrait?size=64)
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
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Posted - 2011.03.02 23:28:00 -
[34]
Edited by: Tippia on 02/03/2011 23:29:58
Originally by: DarthNefarius ithen this can't be random that now 9 high security spcae Incursions in a row have spawned in Amarr space.
Of course it can be random.
In fact, what you point to rather shows that it is random, rather than following some kind of pattern that would only make it look random.
That's the problem with having a big honking pattern recognition machine on the top of your neck: it cannot recognise randomness, but expects it to come in a predictable (i.e. not random) pattern. ùùù ôIf you're not willing to fight for what you have in ≡v≡à you don't deserve it, and you will lose it.ö ù Karath Piki |
![DarthNefarius DarthNefarius](https://images.evetech.net/characters/90134627/portrait?size=64)
DarthNefarius
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Posted - 2011.03.03 06:40:00 -
[35]
Tippia 9 in a row does not suggest a random distribution, but yes it is possible, take a statistics course or combinorics course you'll see though that we're an approaching an extreme outlier here though. Math aside I was getting to have fun & joining the armour fleets I felt alot of comradeity competeing against the shield fleet for the MOM. ITS BEEN A WEEK SINCE I WAS LAST ABLE TO JOIN AN INCURSION FLEET. There was a Gall space low sec incursion I tried to join but the goons there said it was alliance only ( yes the alliance is named goons something). I understand why its alliance only because why would they trust anyone else in low sec. The last low sec incursion was there a week BTW & no other low sec incursions spawned did you notice? The distrribution is as much a random walk as the Brooklin rackets in the 1920's IMHO
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![I'thari I'thari](https://images.evetech.net/characters/218638083/portrait?size=64)
I'thari
Minmatar
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Posted - 2011.03.03 08:49:00 -
[36]
Originally by: DarthNefarius 9 in a row does not suggest a random distribution, but yes it is possible, take a statistics course or combinorics course you'll see though that we're an approaching an extreme outlier here though.
So what? Having bad amarr standing was your choice, so face consequences... CCP even made it far esier to fix faction standings now.
Originally by: DarthNefarius The last low sec incursion was there a week BTW & no other low sec incursions spawned did you notice?
Because it's by design: 3 in 0.0, 3 in highsec, 1 in lowsec. After one is completed it respawns a bit later in a new location. |
![DarthNefarius DarthNefarius](https://images.evetech.net/characters/90134627/portrait?size=64)
DarthNefarius
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Posted - 2011.03.03 09:13:00 -
[37]
you are showing your ignorance... by that design its not a random distribution. Go take math again. 9 Amarr incursions in a row means I've been lied to.
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![DarthNefarius DarthNefarius](https://images.evetech.net/characters/90134627/portrait?size=64)
DarthNefarius
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Posted - 2011.03.03 09:21:00 -
[38]
Sorry 9 hi sec incursions in a row means its not random unless a coin flip comes up heads come up much more then 9 times in a row given the # of non Amarr systems out there that are hi sec ( which added together is greater then the # of hi sec Amarr systems incidently)in all probability. I'm not even counting how many low & null sec systems are out there which tips the statistic tables further.
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![Jowen Datloran Jowen Datloran](https://images.evetech.net/characters/149329244/portrait?size=64)
Jowen Datloran
Caldari Science and Trade Institute
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Posted - 2011.03.03 09:32:00 -
[39]
Originally by: DarthNefarius if this is true: Amarr Empire - 459 systems found Ammatar Mandate - 64 systems found Caldari State - 228 systems found Gallente Federation - 240 systems found Khanid Kingdom - 45 systems found Minmatar Republic - 176 systems found
------------------- then this can't be random that now 9 high security spcae Incursions in a row have spawned in Amarr space. The last one spawned just ~6 systems from the last one it is in amarr too.
This sucks CCP I can't play in Incursions now
Perhaps you should pull out your book on basic statistics and do some computations before claiming a system is random or not.
OR
Continue to yap on as a (just another) fool on the Internet.
-- Mr. Science & Trade Institute - EVE Lorebook - Mysteries of W-space |
![I'thari I'thari](https://images.evetech.net/characters/218638083/portrait?size=64)
I'thari
Minmatar
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Posted - 2011.03.03 09:56:00 -
[40]
Originally by: DarthNefarius you are showing your ignorance... by that design its not a random distribution.
Maybe, but think of it this way: you can only get flying turd BPC in lowsec, so only one incursion there (not to mention there's not too much lowsec o begin with), hence 3/1/3 distribution. If all insursions would end up in remote 0.0 nobody cares about I doubt you'd be happier ![Razz](/images/icon_razz.gif)
Originally by: DarthNefarius Sorry 9 hi sec incursions in a row means its not random unless a coin flip comes up heads come up much more then 9 times in a row
Funny thing is: during probability theopry class teacher once told that if someone really wants to he can flip coin 1k times and write down results. I tried it a bit to see if I could get predictable results, after some prectice ended up fliping it 10 times in a row the way I wanted it to... so coin flip is not exacly random either ![Razz](/images/icon_razz.gif) |
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![mkmin mkmin](https://images.evetech.net/characters/945995053/portrait?size=64)
mkmin
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Posted - 2011.03.03 10:26:00 -
[41]
is the 3/1/3 thing really accurate? I was pretty sure on one of the first days there were at least 2 in lowsec at the same point.
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![Tyburn Stannis Tyburn Stannis](https://images.evetech.net/characters/835874215/portrait?size=64)
Tyburn Stannis
Caldari Xenon Salvage Inc.
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Posted - 2011.03.03 10:36:00 -
[42]
"Random" does NOT mean "evenly distributed".
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![Maria Yi Maria Yi](https://images.evetech.net/characters/1033723963/portrait?size=64)
Maria Yi
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Posted - 2011.03.03 11:40:00 -
[43]
ITT: people that know stats vs people that have bad amarr standing and don't know stats
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![Kacer Xenro Kacer Xenro](https://images.evetech.net/characters/180199201/portrait?size=64)
Kacer Xenro
Swords Horses and Heavy Metal
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Posted - 2011.03.03 13:50:00 -
[44]
OP, allow me to introduce you to my dear friend here:
Random.Range(1,allhighsec constellations)
also called a random number generator.
gotta love those things :)
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![DonHel DonHel](https://images.evetech.net/characters/527347760/portrait?size=64)
DonHel
Gallente Kentucky Fried Capsuleer
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Posted - 2011.03.03 14:04:00 -
[45]
Originally by: Dirk Magnum This may have been what Sableye was getting at, but Sansha rats already occupied belts and deadspace within Amarr systems prior to Incursion. It makes sense from an RP perspective to saturate the Amarr areas with incursions first, and then branch out from there. Amarr players can't complain. If they chose Amarr at random then they can eat it for choosing a race at random. If they chose Amarr because of the backstory, then they accept whatever comes with it. Same goes for those who utilize Amarr space for agents or industry.
this is my thoughts also
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![Target Painter Target Painter](https://images.evetech.net/characters/288415692/portrait?size=64)
Target Painter
Minmatar
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Posted - 2011.03.03 14:23:00 -
[46]
Also they mentioned Incursions would never hit major missioning or trade hubs, so a fair chunk of the non-Amarr space is "off-limits."
And the 0.0 Incursions aren't even remotely suicidal to hit up, except the ones in NC space. If you go to the Drone regions during US prime, there is literally nothing there. Except bots.
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![Joe Skellington Joe Skellington](https://images.evetech.net/characters/912250246/portrait?size=64)
Joe Skellington
Minmatar JOKAS Industries Matari Legion
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Posted - 2011.03.03 14:29:00 -
[47]
Originally by: DarthNefarius this can't be random can it? My main toon has Terrible Amarr status so I'm effectively SHUT OUT OF ALL THE FUN! This sucks CCP!
Shouldn't religious fanatics feel at home in Amarr space?
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![Plasmatiq Plasmatiq](https://images.evetech.net/characters/144893050/portrait?size=64)
Plasmatiq
Caldari Malicious Destruction
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Posted - 2011.03.03 15:23:00 -
[48]
Edited by: Plasmatiq on 03/03/2011 15:24:02 That doesn't bother me
What DOES really tick me off is that they seem to spawn around downtime and get completed before I even have a chance to login. ![Mad](/images/icon_mad.gif)
Which is US TZ, really, WTF!
Or there will be 3 or 4 in 0.0 that nobody bothers to touch for a week
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![Tippia Tippia](https://images.evetech.net/characters/1938874952/portrait?size=64)
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
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Posted - 2011.03.03 15:27:00 -
[49]
Originally by: DarthNefarius Tippia 9 in a row does not suggest a random distribution,
It doesn't suggest that it's not either. That's the problem with "random".
It would be far more suspicious if you had actually seen a pattern where the distribution of incursions matches the distribution of systems, especially since the n is still insignificantly small. Even distribution before we've reached at least ∞/100 or so (which doesn't even make sense) would be highly suspicious, so don't go quoting distribution as proof for anything.
Quote: take a statistics course or combinorics course you'll see though that we're an approaching an extreme outlier here though.
I have. And no, 9 in a row is not even close to being an outlier when there's a 1:3û2:5 chance. Come back in four years or so, and we'll have a good sample size.
Quote: Sorry 9 hi sec incursions in a row means its not random
No it doesn't. ùùù ôIf you're not willing to fight for what you have in ≡v≡à you don't deserve it, and you will lose it.ö ù Karath Piki |
![sableye sableye](https://images.evetech.net/characters/974920541/portrait?size=64)
sableye
principle of motion
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Posted - 2011.03.03 15:34:00 -
[50]
Originally by: I'thari
Originally by: DarthNefarius 9 in a row does not suggest a random distribution, but yes it is possible, take a statistics course or combinorics course you'll see though that we're an approaching an extreme outlier here though.
So what? Having bad amarr standing was your choice, so face consequences... CCP even made it far esier to fix faction standings now.
Originally by: DarthNefarius The last low sec incursion was there a week BTW & no other low sec incursions spawned did you notice?
Because it's by design: 3 in 0.0, 3 in highsec, 1 in lowsec. After one is completed it respawns a bit later in a new location.
I been gone a while how did they make it easier?
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![DarthNefarius DarthNefarius](https://images.evetech.net/characters/90134627/portrait?size=64)
DarthNefarius
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Posted - 2011.03.03 16:14:00 -
[51]
Now it is 10 high sec Incursions in Amarr space in a row. I pasted the numbers of hi sec Incursions in a previous post ( there are actually more non Amarr hi sec systems when added up BTW ) & did the math from my college Combinatorics based book I'm looking for my old statistics book next for distributions & outliers. Basically the odds... well they are on par with in a game of poker approach being dealt a royal plush already. Yes it is possible but no the distribution is askew
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![Syn Callibri Syn Callibri](https://images.evetech.net/characters/1123294541/portrait?size=64)
Syn Callibri
Minmatar 21st Eridani Lighthorse
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Posted - 2011.03.03 16:58:00 -
[52]
Proof positive that god really hates the Amarr? ![Laughing](/images/icon_lol.gif)
[/center] |
![Rens Cheque Rens Cheque](https://images.evetech.net/characters/90289074/portrait?size=64)
Rens Cheque
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Posted - 2011.03.03 19:02:00 -
[53]
I had the same issue of (really) bad Amarr standing and all the incursions occurring in Amarr space....so I fixed my Amarr standings.
I just did all Caldari tutorial, career, and circle agents, and since Amarr and Caldari are allied it raised my Amarr standing quite a bit. I raised my diplomacy from lvl 3 to lvl 4 and I was able to enter Amarr space again.
It took a little while, but in a fast frig it goes pretty quick. I used a dramiel.
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![Barakkus Barakkus](https://images.evetech.net/characters/482849053/portrait?size=64)
Barakkus
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Posted - 2011.03.03 21:10:00 -
[54]
None of you complaining about random know what random is it seems. - - [SERVICE] Corp Standings For POS anchoring
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![DarthNefarius DarthNefarius](https://images.evetech.net/characters/90134627/portrait?size=64)
DarthNefarius
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Posted - 2011.03.03 21:31:00 -
[55]
well 10 Amarr hi sec incursions in a row ( the previous 2 Amarrite Mandate ) is statistically beomming highly unlikely given the number of non Amarr high sec systems. It's ruining my game play and turning me off of the game. Oh as a newbie I didn't know about faction status meaning I can't go to other space and did alot of Amarr & Caldari faction mission so before I knew this adversely would effect me I found myself with terrible status in both. I can't go to Caldari space to fix and I've tried upping my diplo status with not enough of a change :(
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![Matalino Matalino](https://images.evetech.net/characters/747212324/portrait?size=64)
Matalino
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Posted - 2011.03.03 22:15:00 -
[56]
Originally by: DarthNefarius Now it is 10 high sec Incursions in Amarr space in a row. I pasted the numbers of hi sec Incursions in a previous post ( there are actually more non Amarr hi sec systems when added up BTW ) & did the math from my college Combinatorics based book I'm looking for my old statistics book next for distributions & outliers. Basically the odds... well they are on par with in a game of poker approach being dealt a royal plush already. Yes it is possible but no the distribution is askew
My calculations put the odds at 50.4% chance that a high sec incursion will be in an Amarr, Ammatar, or Khanid constellation. From that, the projected odds of having 10 high sec incursions in a row being outside of Caldari, Gallente or Minmatar space is 1:939. The odds of being delt a royal flush in 5 cards is 1:649739. You have 9 more to go before you approach the odds of being delt a royal flush; 10 more before you exceed it.
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![sableye sableye](https://images.evetech.net/characters/974920541/portrait?size=64)
sableye
principle of motion
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Posted - 2011.03.03 22:37:00 -
[57]
Originally by: DarthNefarius well 10 Amarr hi sec incursions in a row ( the previous 2 Amarrite Mandate ) is statistically beomming highly unlikely given the number of non Amarr high sec systems. It's ruining my game play and turning me off of the game. Oh as a newbie I didn't know about faction status meaning I can't go to other space and did alot of Amarr & Caldari faction mission so before I knew this adversely would effect me I found myself with terrible status in both. I can't go to Caldari space to fix and I've tried upping my diplo status with not enough of a change :(
no noobie could run enough missions to get the standings that lwo that quickly unless you got extremly unlucky
----------------------------------------- View The North Star! In All Its Glory!! |
![DarthNefarius DarthNefarius](https://images.evetech.net/characters/90134627/portrait?size=64)
DarthNefarius
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Posted - 2011.03.04 00:18:00 -
[58]
My math off? if this is true: Amarr Empire - 459 systems found Ammatar Mandate - 64 systems found Caldari State - 228 systems found Gallente Federation - 240 systems found Khanid Kingdom - 45 systems found Minmatar Republic - 176 systems found total hi sec = 1212 Thus chance 1 amarr incursion is .378 (459/1212) chance 10 in a row = .000059
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![Tippia Tippia](https://images.evetech.net/characters/1938874952/portrait?size=64)
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
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Posted - 2011.03.04 00:25:00 -
[59]
Originally by: DarthNefarius My math off? if this is true: [à] Thus chance 1 amarr incursion is .378 (459/1212) chance 10 in a row = .000059
Big ifà Also, even if they are correct, the numbers are not the right ones, since the incursions are applied to constellations, not systems. ùùù ôIf you're not willing to fight for what you have in ≡v≡à you don't deserve it, and you will lose it.ö ù Karath Piki |
![4C 4F 5645 4C 4F 5645](https://images.evetech.net/characters/90459505/portrait?size=64)
4C 4F 5645
Rogue Drone Systems
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Posted - 2011.03.04 04:42:00 -
[60]
I've seen CCP dev posts stating that originally it was intended for all 4 major pirate factions to make their own incursions before it was cut down like most expansions in recent years have been. Sansha was the Amarrian "native" pirate faction before it became this big universal threat. I wouldn't be surprised if some code for them prefering Amarr space is still there while the inexistent Angel, Serpentis and Guristas incursions were supposed to prefer the other regions.
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