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Droidster
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Posted - 2005.02.04 20:13:00 -
[1]
The NPC orders were annoying before Exodus and after Exodus they are insane because they reset every night and are stacked three deep.
These orders are black holes that suck mins out of the system and make everybody poorer. The resulting price inflation means miners have to work harder to make the same amount of money (although on the plus side there are the new mining crystals or whatever).
These NPC orders are a needless distortion of the market.
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I am motivated by various things, mostly ISK. |
Droidster
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Posted - 2005.02.06 01:05:00 -
[2]
 Originally by: Jonas Bane
Originally by: Droidster
These orders are black holes that suck mins out of the system and make everybody poorer. The resulting price inflation means miners have to work harder to make the same amount of money (although on the plus side there are the new mining crystals or whatever).
These NPC orders are a needless distortion of the market.
Wait, what?
I agree that the NPC orders are pulling minerals out of the market. But how does this make everyone poorer, let alone force miners to work harder to make the same amount of cash? If anything, NPC orders ensure that the mineral market stays somewhat stable. Someone couldn't artificially depress the market on a certain mineral, and that would force a miner to produce more in order to make the same amount of money.
This is the whole problem. Nobody, CCP included seems to realize what the effect of having these NPC orders on the market is because the economics involved require a little abstract thinking (unless you are a trader like me and have to deal with NPC order hell every day--then the effects are obvious).
First of all consider all the mins in EVE. Lets say 1 billion units get mined by players every day and lets say that 1 billion units of mins is enough to make 1000 ships. Ok, now assume that there are NO NPC orders at all. Then in that case all the mins mined goes into ship and module construction, say 1000 ships per day. Ok, now lets change the equation. Assume that every day 500 million (50%) of the mins get sold to NPCs. In that case only 500 million units of mins will be available for players so only 500 ships get built per day. THE MINERS ARE DOING THE SAME AMOUNT OF WORK BUT ONLY 50% OF THE SHIPS AND MODULES ARE GETTING BUILT.
In general the more players sell to NPCs the more mining work per ship produced has to be done.
In money terms what happens is that the price of ships and modules goes up more than the bid price of mins. Also, if you want to get technical about it the spread widens if you know what that means. For example, before exodus the spread on isogen was about 15 (bid 65, ask 80). Now the spread has more than doubled to about 30 (bid 60 ask 90). Miners are getting a little less on average than before and paying a lot more for ships and modules.
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I am motivated by various things, mostly ISK. |
Droidster
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Posted - 2005.02.06 12:55:00 -
[3]
First of all people sell into NPC orders widely. If there is no player regional bid even the 1.07 tritanium orders get sold into. Second of all, with the exception of trit and zyd all of the NPC orders are having a big effect and forcing player bids higher.
I think its kind of funny you are saying the NPCs aren't competitive. Hello, why do you think the players have to pay 20 for mex? Because the frickin NPC orders are everywhere.
The argument that somehow NPC order volume is not significant is totally wrong unless you are talking zyd and mega. For example, take pyerite. Just look at the "Donchian channel" on the market graphs for pyerite. Look at before November 23rd and after and tell me again no effect on volume. Right.
I deal with this every day and although I make just as much or more than before, the spreads I pay now post-Exodus are much more unfavorable to the players I was posting before Exodus. For example, in noxcium my spreads have almost doubled now because so much freemarket nox has gone to NPCs.
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I am motivated by various things, mostly ISK. |
Droidster
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Posted - 2005.02.16 17:54:00 -
[4]
I think a lot of the problem here is one of mass psychology. The average person simply doesn't understand how the economics work so they are not able to see the harm these NPC orders are doing.
It is a lot like minimum wage laws. Even though every single basic economic textbook and every single economist advises that minimum wages are extremely harmful to an economy EVERY single country has minimum wages in one form or another. Why? Because the common man does not understand why it is bad.
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I am motivated by various things, mostly ISK. |
Droidster
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Posted - 2005.02.16 19:14:00 -
[5]
Edited by: Droidster on 16/02/2005 19:18:22
What? I don't really follow your thinking here (either of the last two posts). But I think these posts kind of prove my point that the average player/developer does not understand what is happening economically.
Part of the problem is that like the posters most people associate their wealth with "money" (ISK). Money is a just the exchange mechanism. Having a billion ISK does not help you if shuttles all cost 10 billion ISK. People see the min bid prices going up and think this is helping the miners but they forget or don't notice that the ask prices are going up even more (see my notes on spread above) so overall the miners are becoming poorer because they have to spend more money on goods than they are making on minerals.
A related effect I see a lot is people asking the "price" of something. This shows the average players ignorance of how economics works. There are TWO prices. The bid and ask and they differ depending on location and quantity. You can see this in every market dialog: there are two windows, one for the buyer and one for the seller.
Bohrmann: saying that without NPC orders players would somehow exploit the miners is completely backwards. Actually if there were no NPC orders the miners (and all players) would be getting a much better deal because ALL the minerals being mined would be turned into ships. As it is only a fraction of the minerals being mined turn into ships and modules, the rest is lost to the NPCs.
If the NPCs SOLD minerals or ships or modules it would be a different story. Then everything would hinge on the difference between what they bought and sold at. As it is since they only BUY it is a net loss for the players.
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I am motivated by various things, mostly ISK. |
Droidster
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Posted - 2005.02.16 19:31:00 -
[6]
NPC Balance of Trade
To follow up on my last point let me talk about the NPC balance of trade for a moment.
The NPCs both buy and sell things. They buy and sell freight. They only buy minerals and tags. They only sell low-end modules, skills and blueprints.
If NPCs sell more than they buy then the players tend benefit. If they buy more than they sell then the players tend to lose out. Since Exodus the balance of trade has shifted towards the sell side (bad for players) largely because of the NPC min orders.
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I am motivated by various things, mostly ISK. |
Droidster
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Posted - 2005.02.16 19:43:00 -
[7]
Edited by: Droidster on 16/02/2005 19:46:35
Originally by: Karl Borhman
If you want me to feel sorry for you - you're nuts.
...
But guys like you - market traders that sit in a station and do little else end up getting the short end of the stick, because with no way to manipulate the market they make nothing.
This is another misapprehension: that traders oppose the NPC orders because they are losing money. Actually in mins I am making about the same as before Exodus. What you are forgetting once again is that there are TWO sides to market, the bid and ask. You're right that I lose lose all the miner volume that goes to NPC buyers, but I make up for it in sell volume. You are forgetting that the manufacturers can't buy from NPCs (see my note on Balance of Trade above)--they have to buy from us traders and we charge more to make up for the volume we lose to NPCs--a lot more.
For example, before Exodus you could easily buy Noxcium in empire for 320-350. Not anymore. Now you have to pay about 450. Think about it. The miners are getting 20-40 more for their nox, but the manufacturers are paying 100 more. That means that when the miner goes to buy a mining barge or whatever he ends up paying a lot more than the extra he is making. This loss is due to the minerals the NPCs are sucking out of the system.
Edit: Dark Shakari has the right general idea: player wealth is in ship and equipment. It behooves us to turn ALL of the minerals we are mining into ships. When some of it goes to NPCs that mining effort is wasted because the ISK is just paper that melts into inflation.
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I am motivated by various things, mostly ISK. |
Droidster
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Posted - 2005.02.16 19:51:00 -
[8]
Fixed Price NPC Buys
Now of course the situation is more complex than that because the NPCs do sell some things: blueprints and skills and some miscellaneous stuff like shuttles.
Since the price of these items is fixed players gain when buying them from the inflation. In other words some of the money they lose to mineral sales can be made up when they buy blueprints and skills. The question is of the balance of trade: are we selling more minerals than we are buying blueprints and skills?
The answer is obvious: a lot more money trades hands on NPC mineral orders than NPC item buys. That is why players are hurt by these NPC mineral orders.
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I am motivated by various things, mostly ISK. |
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