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Understanding Chance-To-Hit formula

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Drexit	Posted - 2011.04.11 15:15:00 - [1] Taken from http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/Falloff the chance to hit formula is: ChanceToHit = 0.5 ^ ((((Transversal speed/(Range to target * Turret Tracking))(Turret Signature Resolution / Target Signature Radius))^2) + ((max(0, Range To Target - Turret Optimal Range))/Turret Falloff)^2) I put together a small spreadsheet to let me test the relative effectiveness of webs vs painters. If I set everything up correctly, it looks like webs are much more effective (ignoring the range differences). I did run into one huge anomally though - a Tach pally vs a conflag pulse pally has better* chance to hit. I know this goes against everything I know about tachs and their crappy tracking, so something in my calculations is wrong. I've tried to link the sheet to view it publicly. Linkage Please let me know if you see something wrong, or if its correct, why it makes sense in the context of the formula. The only thing I can figure out is that the tach pally is right at optimal, where the mega pulse pally is in falloff - but I didn't expect that to affect to-hit.
Chi Quan Bibkor Enterprises	Posted - 2011.04.11 16:50:00 - [2] why not use eft? ---- Ceterum censeo blasters need some tracking love
Irani Firecam Gallente Lords 0f Justice Fidelas Constans	Posted - 2011.04.11 16:53:00 - [3] Edited by: Irani Firecam on 11/04/2011 16:53:40 Assuming that you are comparing the chance to hit for a target moving at the same speed, but at Tach+MF optimal and MP+CF optimal, then the Tachyon will have a better chance to hit due to lower angular velocity from being at greater range, and 100% of weapon tracking instead of the penalised tracking from Conflag. Hope this is what you are looking for. My Wallpaper
The Djego Minmatar Hellequin Inc.	Posted - 2011.04.11 17:00:00 - [4] The tach fires within optimal range, the conflag puls is about 30% in falloff. ---- Nerf Tank - Boost Gank! Originally by: Amantus Real men don't need to get into blaster range.
Drexit	Posted - 2011.04.11 17:05:00 - [5] Originally by: Chi Quan why not use eft? Not sure you read the post through? Originally by: Irani Firecam Edited by: Irani Firecam on 11/04/2011 16:53:40 Assuming that you are comparing the chance to hit for a target moving at the same speed, but at Tach+MF optimal and MP+CF optimal, then the Tachyon will have a better chance to hit due to lower angular velocity from being at greater range, and 100% of weapon tracking instead of the penalised tracking from Conflag. Hope this is what you are looking for. I'm using the same range to target for both weapons - 18000. The speed in the comparison is 14 m/s due to the dual 90% webs. This basically negates any tracking penalties either gun might have. The only thing left is how optimal, falloff, and range work together to affect chance to hit. I can read it in the formula, but it really doesn't make sense in terms of a real world explanation.
Irani Firecam Gallente Lords 0f Justice Fidelas Constans	Posted - 2011.04.11 17:11:00 - [6] It's because your Mega Pulse laser is firing beyond its optimal range, 0.5^(0.002) = 99.8% hit chance, but 0.5^(0.002+0.09) = 93.79% hit chance. My Wallpaper
Drexit	Posted - 2011.04.11 17:23:00 - [7] I guess the way I used to understand falloff, is that it applied a percentage damage reduction to each hit. It shows this way in game too - instead of hitting for 1200 per volley, I hit for 150 per volley. Instead, this formula is actually tweaking the chance to land a single hit based on falloff. It makes sense how in the end dps would correctly reflect the falloff, but not in a one shot trial. Example: I hit for 1000 inside optimal, ignoring transversal. Outside of optimal, lets say 50% into falloff, I land a hit. According to the to-hit formula, chance to hit based on falloff is already applied. Theoretically, I should still hit for 1000. Instead, in practice, I hit for 100. Is there also a damage calculation, besides the wrecking shot check, where falloff affects damage?
Irani Firecam Gallente Lords 0f Justice Fidelas Constans	Posted - 2011.04.11 17:34:00 - [8] I tend to treat the chance to hit function as a percentage of maximum damage on a target. My Wallpaper
Drexit	Posted - 2011.04.11 18:02:00 - [9] Originally by: Irani Firecam I tend to treat the chance to hit function as a percentage of maximum damage on a target. If you're calculating damage over time, sure. If you're looking at a single volley, then its just a pass/fail, not a percentage modifier.
The Djego Minmatar Hellequin Inc.	Posted - 2011.04.11 18:21:00 - [10] You miss that the damage is not only a product of the hit chance but also hit quality: Linkage For example if you only have 50% hit chance, you will only score the hits that are for the lower damage and miss with the shoots that are calculated for higher damage(by the random number generator). damage = 1.025 * hitchance * maxdamage ---- Nerf Tank - Boost Gank! Originally by: Amantus Real men don't need to get into blaster range.

AristotleOnassis	Posted - 2011.04.12 03:59:00 - [11] This is exactly why ships like mach hits-to-kill varies so widely You need to understand that, unlike missiles, turret damage varies a lot regardless if the enemy isnt moving/has 0 angular vel/in optimal Generally, turrents does anywhere from 0.5x damage to 1.5x damage. and a 1% chance to get a wrecking shot. This is the quality of hit. The chances drop substantially as you shoot into falloff OR shoot into a fast ship. IE. Say you do 1000 DPS including wrecking shots in optimal You do LESS then 500 DPS in optimal+falloff. somewhere between 400-450. Imagine a curve below the straight line from optimal to optimal + 2*falloff its something like that. Now the point is, say in PVE, hit-to-kill becomes so important. For example, a Tengu takes 2-hits to kill a battlecruiser. 100% of the time. (2000K damage x 2) While a machariel does 2K alpha on a static battlecruiser(after resistances), but turret formula makes it varies from 1K-3K (assuming no falloff/tracking reduction) On top of that, it wil do 6K damage on a wrecking shot. So on a 4000 HP battlecruiser So you end up with 1% chance to 1hit-kill and some half/half chance to get a 2-hit kill, the remaining in the region of 3-hit killing the 4K battlecruiser. So remember. First use angular+optimal formula to get damage. Then use quality of hit to calculate effective damage.
Swynet	Posted - 2011.04.12 08:57:00 - [12] Originally by: Chi Quan why not use eft? Because it's theoretical crap vs real use. Just use it to make your self an idea of what it should/can do but if you think for a second you get exactly what is in just wake up. ________________________________________________ Originally by: Goose99 In EVE, PVE can happen anywhere, anytime. Whenever you undock, you subject yourself to involuntary PVE.


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