Companion Qube wrote:You could make a guess that virtually all of the people who were willing to throw $200 at plex did so en-masse during the two discount promotions. That action flooded the market which drove speculators to hoard stacks of plex and drive the price right back up. Now, you'd normally have people willing to trickle more plex in to the market which would stabilize the price, but I'm guessing all of those people already made their space billions buying plex and dumping them during an earlier promotion.
TL;DR: My guess? CCP front-loaded plex market supply for some months with the bulk sales, now those people who would be trickling plex in on a daily basis aren't. edit: Instead, you've got speculators trickling plex back out at inflated prices. People like me, only, this time it wasn't me - I swear
Up, up and away! (until the next sale anouncement.)
While your argument sounds valid, unfortunately you're basically making it up.
The last 12 months worth of Plex data in The Forge shows that there has been a slight increase in volume traded in plex, and certainly no downward trend in orders placed or numbers of plex traded. Moreover, its only been since plex started nudging past the 400 mil mark you've seen the plex drives, bulk deals, plex instead of time for buddies, most recently 3 plex for power of two or 180 days game time.
You could argue that its a drying up of the market, and supplies aren't coming in, which is possible, although . With 2000+ plex traded a day, accounting for approximately 1/5 of the game time needed, you could make the argument that not all the plex being traded is being consumed.
I would suggest that tech traders are no longer seeing much return in technetium so they're shifting over to plex as another large item that is traded consistenly. I'd also combine this with a recent drop in fresh numbers of plex being put on the market, which has something to do with the supercap nerf (a titan used to cost an entire day's worth of plex trading in jita) and uncertainty surrounding these ships making people not willing to plex it up to get their super pilots and ships.
Without the fresh sellers coming in its probably a lot of traders just passing plex around. 2000 (in jita alone) plex traded daily would account for about 1/5 of the subscription base, but without any numbers on how many people CC their account vs. PLEX, amount consumed per day versus traded per day is just a complete blind guess.