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Glathull
Suicidal Panda Tears of Love and Death
2
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Posted - 2012.12.25 20:09:00 -
[1] - Quote
Everyone talks about RvR and about how it's out of whack. It's messed up in high sec, it's messed up null sec. Pretty much everywhere you go on the forums these days, some is whispering the magic words and clicking their heels together.
What is the metric this is based on? How does anyone know? What's the correct formula? Blanket statements don't really do it for me. Even if you think there's literally zero risk for doing x in hi/lo/null sec.
Should people lose, on average, 100 million ISK for every 500 million they earn? Every billion?
What's the magical secret formula that everyone but me seems to know? |

Sarah Schneider
PonyWaffe Test Alliance Please Ignore
1639
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 20:26:00 -
[2] - Quote
There are like two dozen similar threads out there and you chose to create your own? what's so special about yours? How to : Playing Eve 100% Risk and Conflict FREE! |

Surfin's PlunderBunny
Sebiestor Tribe Minmatar Republic
4878
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 20:41:00 -
[3] - Quote
well... it was a xmas post  "Little ginger moron" ~David Hasselhoff-á |

Zen Sarum
EliteTroll
8
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 20:47:00 -
[4] - Quote
Talking about risk vs reward in general is kinda pointless without also talking about player activity and more importantly interactions.
1. So say you rat mine or mission for 20 hours a week in 0.5sec and earn 1billion a week and say the ship you use is worth 1bil that seems reasonable after a week of effort you can regain your value. Say one day you don't pay attention and get ganked for a 500mil faction booster or pimped out mining kit you use, this could happen in week one (duh) week 52 or never? The people that kill you lose 60 mils worth of ships and some sec as well as the associated time to gain it back and find you. Adding game content and destroying game content requiring effort to replace. This all seems reasonable.
2. So say you do the same in 0.0 and earn 2 billion a week in a carrier worth around 2bil with a 2 bil mach, on a second account, you fall asleep get killed by a roaming gang or awoxed hot dropped by a spy. These both needed a hostile fleet and some activity to kill. So you lose 2 weeks of earnings plus the time taken to get those assets together as well as the effort to make these and gather the elements. You also may get kicked out of your 0.0 corp for being a ******. This also all seems reasonable.
3. So say you are a combat pilot in a massive coalition, if you lose a ship it gets replaced. The coalition holds all of its space and pays the SRP as well as super and other funded programs by using static income (tech). This moons have no real risk as the coalition holds most of it and controls its price and it has reached a point where noone can ever take. The moons use resources and require maintenance but this is minimal in comparison to the income generated. So the pilot may buy new ships with this 'free' isk and this creates inflation. He may even be able to rat in a system + 50 jumps from any enemy mitigating nearly all risk. Other then buying stuff they dont need and plex.. what is the point however?
So were is risk and were is the activity in the above. |

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
2604
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 20:50:00 -
[5] - Quote
CCP should start banning people creating this endless plethora of photocopy threads. The tears blot the sun! Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |

SegaPhoenix
BREAKING-POINT Primal Force
58
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 20:52:00 -
[6] - Quote
Some would argue the most common metric is player actions. The best example of this is null-sec players creating highsec alts because the ISK in highsec is equivalent but easier and consistent. Also industry in null is lol and needs fixing.
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Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2058
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 21:10:00 -
[7] - Quote
Zen Sarum wrote:3. So say you are a combat pilot in a massive coalition, if you lose a ship it gets replaced. The coalition holds all of its space and pays the SRP as well as super and other funded programs by using static income (tech). This moons have no real risk as the coalition holds most of it and controls its price and it has reached a point where noone can ever take. The moons use resources and require maintenance but this is minimal in comparison to the income generated. So the pilot may buy new ships with this 'free' isk and this creates inflation. He may even be able to rat in a system + 50 jumps from any enemy mitigating nearly all risk. Other then buying stuff they dont need and plex.. what is the point however?
So were is risk and were is the activity in the above. Yes, ask all the people who lost their tech moons. It clearly was riskless for them Also, it needs to be nerfed more. Those who cannot adapt become victims of Evolugalbugaslugakjlwsdhvbzxd Click for old school EVE Portraits: http://jadeconstantine.web44.net/Maison.htm |

Glathull
Suicidal Panda Tears of Love and Death
2
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Posted - 2012.12.25 21:18:00 -
[8] - Quote
I don't think you can create a metric out of something that isn't measurable (by us, anyway.) Player actions are anecdotal. I'm not saying things aren't off. Clearly, they are. I'm asking what "on" looks like.
The way risk v reward is thrown around, it seems that everyone thinks they should be related. What is that relationship? |

Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2059
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 21:21:00 -
[9] - Quote
Glathull wrote:The way risk v reward is thrown around, it seems that everyone thinks they should be related. What is that relationship? They're clearly blue to each other, forming the "HTFU and GTFO Coalition" Those who cannot adapt become victims of Evolugalbugaslugakjlwsdhvbzxd Click for old school EVE Portraits: http://jadeconstantine.web44.net/Maison.htm |

Randolph Rothstein
whatever corp.
115
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 21:25:00 -
[10] - Quote
what i dont understand is why people expect risk vs reward balance?
/tin foil hat on
what if its meant to be unbalanced?
thats not only this game,i see it everywhere,people constantly ask for balance claiming something is OP or needs buff (LOL comes to mind with endless threads about unbalanced champions) and actually minuscule percentage of this threads make it in live game
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Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2059
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 21:27:00 -
[11] - Quote
Randolph Rothstein wrote:what i dont understand is why people expect risk vs reward balance?
/tin foil hat on
what if its meant to be unbalanced?
thats not only this game,i see it everywhere,people constantly ask for balance claiming something is OP or needs buff (LOL comes to mind with endless threads about unbalanced champions) and actually minuscule percentage of this threads make it in live game
Exactly. That's why we must never nerf highsec. EVE is harsh, cold and really unbalanced, HTFU Those who cannot adapt become victims of Evolugalbugaslugakjlwsdhvbzxd Click for old school EVE Portraits: http://jadeconstantine.web44.net/Maison.htm |

Glathull
Suicidal Panda Tears of Love and Death
2
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 21:30:00 -
[12] - Quote
I'm not arguing that it should be balanced. I'm asking what people think it ought to be?
Is it supposed to be something along the lines of reward = amount of ISK risked x time exposed to risk x sec modifier?
Leaving the nerf herding out of it, what do people think the formula should be? |

Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2059
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 21:33:00 -
[13] - Quote
Glathull wrote:I'm not arguing that it should be balanced. I'm asking what people think it ought to be?
Is it supposed to be something along the lines of reward = amount of ISK risked x time exposed to risk x sec modifier?
Leaving the nerf herding out of it, what do people think the formula should be? It has to ensure that when players work together (eg: intel channels) their rewards go down, in order to punish them for putting in additional effort.
Another example: you set up and use a pos to keep yourself safe, spending the effort to maintain it. This means you die less, therefore your reward must go down. Those who cannot adapt become victims of Evolugalbugaslugakjlwsdhvbzxd Click for old school EVE Portraits: http://jadeconstantine.web44.net/Maison.htm |

Glathull
Suicidal Panda Tears of Love and Death
2
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 21:39:00 -
[14] - Quote
Alavaria Fera wrote:Glathull wrote:I'm not arguing that it should be balanced. I'm asking what people think it ought to be?
Is it supposed to be something along the lines of reward = amount of ISK risked x time exposed to risk x sec modifier?
Leaving the nerf herding out of it, what do people think the formula should be? It has to ensure that when players work together (eg: intel channels) their rewards go down, in order to punish them for putting in additional effort. Another example: you set up and use a pos to keep yourself safe, spending the effort to maintain it. This means you die less, therefore your reward must go down.
Okay, so
R = r * I * e * s.
The r factor gets smaller the larger the number of people involved or the more ISK you spend to reduce r of dying horribly in a gankfire. |

Katran Luftschreck
Royal Ammatar Engineering Corps
349
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 21:49:00 -
[15] - Quote
Risk vs Reward... the theory or the reality?
The theory is pretty obvious. The reality is the greatest reward is the smallest risk: Join a nullsec Alliance and then just bot-farm your day away with their sov array generated freebie sites until you have all the ISK in the world. The smallest reward is mining, which carries the greatest risk because your constantly face being ganked by bored nullbears looking for something to throw their surplus ISK away on. EvE Forum Bingo |

Glathull
Suicidal Panda Tears of Love and Death
2
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 21:53:00 -
[16] - Quote
The theory. What should it be in theory without muddling things up with what different people think constitutes risk or reward. There's obviously a huge difference of opinion there. Taking the opinions out, what do you think the formula for risk and reward should be? |

Rain6639
Team Evil
1
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 21:54:00 -
[17] - Quote
risk v reward is teh dumb. sometimes there's no use for talk, and u just gotta pull the trigger. |

Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2059
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 21:55:00 -
[18] - Quote
Katran Luftschreck wrote:Risk vs Reward... the theory or the reality?
The theory is pretty obvious. The reality is the greatest reward is the smallest risk: Join a nullsec Alliance and then just bot-farm your day away with their sov array generated freebie sites until you have all the ISK in the world. The smallest reward is mining, which carries the greatest risk because your constantly face being ganked by bored nullbears looking for something to throw their surplus ISK away on. Exactly, if people work together to reduce their risk, you must punitively punish them. Relying on NPC protection should give you the greatest rewards.
Buff freighter EHP, by the way. Those who cannot adapt become victims of Evolugalbugaslugakjlwsdhvbzxd Click for old school EVE Portraits: http://jadeconstantine.web44.net/Maison.htm |

Bump Truck
Pator Tech School Minmatar Republic
177
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 21:56:00 -
[19] - Quote
I don't claim to have any expertise in this area but here is an attempt.
Basic formula, Value = (Reward*(Probability of Success) - (Assets Risked)*(Probability of Catastrophe)) / Effort
So an example, mining;
In HighSec you mine for an hour in a retriever and refine and sell the minerals, Reward ~ 10 million, Probability of Success ~ 0.95 (basically the only thing that can stop you is getting ganked, maybe you have wardecs, maybe you get suicide ganked), therefore the assets risked are 30 mill (ship + fit), P(Catastrophe) is about 0.05, effort is 0.5 (1 hour, pretty much AFK so I'm calling that 0.5).
Value = (0.95*10 - 30*0.05) / 0.5 = 16 million ISK per effort hour
Note this is more than you actually receive in an hour but I'm assuming ever hour of real time you really do half an hour of effort.
So that's pretty good.
In Nullsec the rewards are basically the same (the ores are worth the same). The probability of success is lower, any neut in system can shut you down. Anyone who comes across you can kill you, neuts or awoxers, there's rats to be tanked or killed. Then you have the effort of moving the products to a refining POS which you have set up and kept running, which cuts into the rewards. Then there's the risk of an enemy fleet attacking your space and a CTA. There's also the risk you'll lose your sov and your retriever will be trapped in a station you can no longer access. Also you have to to be vigilant the whole hour with at least 2 accounts.
It works out something like
Value = (0.7*10 - 30*0.1) / 2.5 = 1.6 Million ISK per effort hour.
Now maybe my calculations are harsh, we'd need some stats on numbers of ships ganked, chances of mining mission success (maybe what quantity of ore a miner mines based on number of hours flying the mining barge) etc.
This analysis can be done with any activity but you get the point, increasing the amount of effort and risk even a bit makes the activity radically less appealing.
I think this is what people are trying to get at with the Risk vs Reward argument, also there are questions of variance to be considered but that is a deeper question.
Hope this helps. |

Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2059
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 21:59:00 -
[20] - Quote
Bump Truck wrote:In Nullsec the rewards are basically the same (the ores are worth the same). The probability of success is lower, any neut in system can shut you down. Anyone who comes across you can kill you, neuts or awoxers, there's rats to be tanked or killed. Then you have the effort of moving the products to a refining POS which you have set up and kept running, which cuts into the rewards. Then there's the risk of an enemy fleet attacking your space and a CTA. There's also the risk you'll lose your sov and your retriever will be trapped in a station you can no longer access. Also you have to to be vigilant the whole hour with at least 2 accounts. But intel channels, blue lists and local ! Those who cannot adapt become victims of Evolugalbugaslugakjlwsdhvbzxd Click for old school EVE Portraits: http://jadeconstantine.web44.net/Maison.htm |
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Piugattuk
Lima beans Corp
162
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 22:21:00 -
[21] - Quote
Here we go, how many have alts in null supplying mains in hi, you need to add this into your mathematics
Besides nowhere in hi sec can you find bpc's worth billions check prices on that sansha's turd super carrier or those nice frigs worth minimum of 50 bill, then talk about RvR.
|

Glathull
Suicidal Panda Tears of Love and Death
2
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 22:25:00 -
[22] - Quote
Thanks for the attempt, Bump Truck. A few criticisms, if I may. Your formula seems flawed to me in 3 respects.
1. The reward itself is an arbitrarily assigned number 2. Reward isn't really defined by risk 3. You have risk counting twice, and both times it's just wild guess at a P-value
So, basically, it seems to me to be contrived to make a point about null sec pretty much sucking. I have a difficult time accepting that as a neutral formula that many people would agree on. |

Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2060
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 22:28:00 -
[23] - Quote
Glathull wrote:Thanks for the attempt, Bump Truck. A few criticisms, if I may. Your formula seems flawed to me in 3 respects.
1. The reward itself is an arbitrarily assigned number 2. Reward isn't really defined by risk 3. You have risk counting twice, and both times it's just wild guess at a P-value
So, basically, it seems to me to be contrived to make a point about null sec pretty much sucking. I have a difficult time accepting that as a neutral formula that many people would agree on. Yeah, highsec needs a modifier to boost its rewards just because ~highsec, high rewards~ Those who cannot adapt become victims of Evolugalbugaslugakjlwsdhvbzxd Click for old school EVE Portraits: http://jadeconstantine.web44.net/Maison.htm |

Torakenat
Space Cowboys United The Irukandji
8
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 22:35:00 -
[24] - Quote
RVR varies greatly based purely on you as a player and your corp/alliance if any.
It's impossible to formulate or even speculate how much generally speaking one would make without basing your thought process on the worst case scenario. And by that if you fit that bill as the worst case scenario than I can only hope you're in the corp we are wardec with instead of mine.
So to answer your question if its more lucrative to be in null instead of high sec...it depends. |

Amarra Mandalin
Protocol 52
449
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 22:58:00 -
[25] - Quote
Glathull wrote:Thanks for the attempt, Bump Truck. A few criticisms, if I may. Your formula seems flawed to me in 3 respects.
1. The reward itself is an arbitrarily assigned number 2. Reward isn't really defined by risk 3. You have risk counting twice, and both times it's just wild guess at a P-value
So, basically, it seems to me to be contrived to make a point about null sec pretty much sucking. I have a difficult time accepting that as a neutral formula that many people would agree on.
I think you need to get more fresh air.
This is a game about people. |

Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2062
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 23:07:00 -
[26] - Quote
Amarra Mandalin wrote:Glathull wrote:Thanks for the attempt, Bump Truck. A few criticisms, if I may. Your formula seems flawed to me in 3 respects.
1. The reward itself is an arbitrarily assigned number 2. Reward isn't really defined by risk 3. You have risk counting twice, and both times it's just wild guess at a P-value
So, basically, it seems to me to be contrived to make a point about null sec pretty much sucking. I have a difficult time accepting that as a neutral formula that many people would agree on. I think you need to get more fresh air. This is a game about people. It's a game driven by NPCs. Those who cannot adapt become victims of Evolugalbugaslugakjlwsdhvbzxd Click for old school EVE Portraits: http://jadeconstantine.web44.net/Maison.htm |

Glathull
Suicidal Panda Tears of Love and Death
2
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 23:10:00 -
[27] - Quote
Okay, so the sense I'm getting is that risk vs. reward is a meaningless phrase that people throw around because it sounds like an argument. But when you try to get people to quantify that argument, no one is interested.
Got it.
Thanks for the clarification and Merry Christmas. |

Elrich Kouvo
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
84
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 23:15:00 -
[28] - Quote
Glathull wrote:I'm not arguing that it should be balanced. I'm asking what people think it ought to be?
Is it supposed to be something along the lines of reward = amount of ISK risked x time exposed to risk x sec modifier?
Leaving the nerf herding out of it, what do people think the formula should be? Risk V. Reward was fancy marketing propaganda. You coldn't buy ISK then, and it tried to help players understand the reasons why bounties and ore scaled by sec status.
Since then,, CCP has added all kinds of content and changes, as well as players actions that kinda muddle the idea.
|

Skylitsa
Viziam Amarr Empire
1
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 23:24:00 -
[29] - Quote
Bump Truck wrote: I think this is what people are trying to get at with the Risk vs Reward argument, also there are questions of variance to be considered but that is a deeper question.I don't claim to have any expertise in this area but here is an attempt.
Hope this helps.
risk in null. NULL. |

Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2062
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 23:24:00 -
[30] - Quote
Elrich Kouvo wrote:Glathull wrote:I'm not arguing that it should be balanced. I'm asking what people think it ought to be?
Is it supposed to be something along the lines of reward = amount of ISK risked x time exposed to risk x sec modifier?
Leaving the nerf herding out of it, what do people think the formula should be? Risk V. Reward was fancy marketing propaganda. You coldn't buy ISK then, and it tried to help players understand the reasons why bounties and ore scaled by sec status. Since then,, CCP has added all kinds of content and changes, as well as player's actions that kinda muddle the idea. Damn players, they need to be nerfed. When they try and make use of tools available to them rather than just relying on NPCs, this breaks everything, so we need to break them. Those who cannot adapt become victims of Evolugalbugaslugakjlwsdhvbzxd Click for old school EVE Portraits: http://jadeconstantine.web44.net/Maison.htm |
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Glathull
Suicidal Panda Tears of Love and Death
2
|
Posted - 2012.12.25 23:35:00 -
[31] - Quote
Agreed, Alavaria.
Nerf ALL the players. |

Bump Truck
Pator Tech School Minmatar Republic
177
|
Posted - 2012.12.26 00:16:00 -
[32] - Quote
Glathull wrote:Thanks for the attempt, Bump Truck. A few criticisms, if I may. Your formula seems flawed to me in 3 respects.
1. The reward itself is an arbitrarily assigned number 2. Reward isn't really defined by risk 3. You have risk counting twice, and both times it's just wild guess at a P-value
So, basically, it seems to me to be contrived to make a point about null sec pretty much sucking. I have a difficult time accepting that as a neutral formula that many people would agree on.
No worries man, glad to help out.
To answer some of your points.
1. I put in that value for mining as it is about what I earn in my experience AFK mining in HighSec. It would be much more accurate to talk about missions as they have a fixed reward value (maybe with some variation if you're salvaging) where as mining is a bit more variable. It's basically how much you expect to earn from an activity assuming it goes well.
2. I'm not sure what you mean here, Risk is inherent in the formula and, when combined with reward, defines the value of an activity.
3. There's a minus sign so it doesn't count twice. Basically I divided the probability space up into three outcomes, success, no result and failure (which here means your ship being destroyed), this is a bit crude, but basically one of these three things will happen with any activity. You're right I had to guess what the numbers are, that doesn't affect the model though, that's a question of data quality.
I don't think I want it to be about null vs High per se. Consider some thought experiments;
If I offered you a coin flip for 10 million ISK or a 1 in 20 chance of winning 100 million ISK that is a tough choice right? It comes down to how much variance you want to accept but either is a good choice.
If I offered you a coin flip for 10 million ISK and a 1 in 20 chance of winning 10 million ISK you'd be mad to pick the latter.
This is, colloquially, what people mean by risk vs reward balance, it's a game theoretic idea that there are dominated strategies, ie things people will never choose as there is an alternative that is better in every way, this is what needs sorting out in the game.
So I think it's meaningful and I don't think we need a formula before it's worth debating. Some analysis would be good with data from CCP but I'm not the man to do that, I hear they have an economist.
|

Kitty Bear
Disturbed Friends Of Diazepam Disturbed Acquaintance
270
|
Posted - 2012.12.26 01:05:00 -
[33] - Quote
Glathull wrote:Everyone talks about RvR and about how it's out of whack. It's messed up in high sec, it's messed up null sec. Pretty much everywhere you go on the forums these days, some is whispering the magic words and clicking their heels together.
What is the metric this is based on? How does anyone know? What's the correct formula? Blanket statements don't really do it for me. Even if you think there's literally zero risk for doing x in hi/lo/null sec.
Should people lose, on average, 100 million ISK for every 500 million they earn? Every billion?
What's the magical secret formula that everyone but me seems to know?
the real secret to RvR, what they really mean when they say it --> Industrialist or Mission Runner takes ALL the risks PvP'er reaps ALL the rewards
Thats how they define RvR .. only they gloss over it with socio-economic Bullshit in an attempt to make it sound reasonable and acceptable.
nul-sec is more risky so nul- sec should earn more is just more of the same lie.
Show me the Dev-Post that actually states clearly and precisely that Nul-Sec was designed from the ground up to be more profittable than highsec. But dont just show me 1 of hundreds of "Nulsec should should have a higher income because it's Nul-Sec" self-entitled rants that we're thoroughly bored of having to ignore on a daily basis now. |

Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2065
|
Posted - 2012.12.26 01:07:00 -
[34] - Quote
Kitty Bear wrote:the real secret to RvR, what they really mean when they say it --> Industrialist or Mission Runner takes ALL the risks PvP'er reaps ALL the rewards Buff freighters ! Those who cannot adapt become victims of Evolugalbugaslugakjlwsdhvbzxd Click for old school EVE Portraits: http://jadeconstantine.web44.net/Maison.htm |

Trendon Evenstar
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
78
|
Posted - 2012.12.26 01:15:00 -
[35] - Quote
Piugattuk wrote:Besides nowhere in hi sec can you find bpc's worth billions check prices on that sansha's turd super carrier or those nice frigs worth minimum of 50 bill, then talk about RvR
I read somewhere that we built the only one known to exist- and then sold it to some scrub c/d?
EDIT: Because its useless |

Luanda Heartbreaker
FREE GATES HUN Reloaded
1
|
Posted - 2012.12.26 01:23:00 -
[36] - Quote
SegaPhoenix wrote:Some would argue the most common metric is player actions. The best example of this is null-sec players creating highsec alts because the ISK in highsec is equivalent but easier and consistent. Also industry in null is lol and needs fixing.
u do something very wrong. i went into 0.0 'cos ITS A LOT EASIER to make isk solo. its an iskprinter. i just undock, kill 2-3 heaven 100 mill... (no loot or salvage or any boring stuff, just pop in carry, launch sentries and fix eyes on intel) compare it to highsec missioning, u have to jump systems to and back, dock after every round (if u wanna make it worth, better going to salvage), adjust your ship to every mission and every mission is a risk that your ship will be killed by an unwanted spawn. tell me which anomaly can kill my carrier? NONE, if u watch intel and local, RISK=0, if its not true for u. get back in highsec. |

La Nariz
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
373
|
Posted - 2012.12.26 01:54:00 -
[37] - Quote
OP the only quantifiable metric I've seen for reward is isk/hr for an action. For risk yeah that's a gigantic formula that most of the forum won't get and will mindlessly post why its wrong, so I'll save that for later. npc alts aren't people |

Kitty Bear
Disturbed Friends Of Diazepam Disturbed Acquaintance
270
|
Posted - 2012.12.26 02:19:00 -
[38] - Quote
La Nariz wrote:OP the only quantifiable metric I've seen for reward is isk/hr for an action. For risk yeah that's a gigantic formula that most of the forum won't get and will mindlessly post why its wrong, so I'll save that for later.
if it's based on isk/hr then its unquantifiable ..
each unit of time that passes, is gone ... it cannot be respent anywhere else as the time i have is finite, and WILL run out at some point how can you place an actual value on it
my time is priceless
this is why eve has no risk |

Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2065
|
Posted - 2012.12.26 04:13:00 -
[39] - Quote
Trendon Evenstar wrote:Piugattuk wrote:Besides nowhere in hi sec can you find bpc's worth billions check prices on that sansha's turd super carrier or those nice frigs worth minimum of 50 bill, then talk about RvR I read somewhere that we built the only one known to exist- and then sold it to some scrub c/d? EDIT: Because its useless As I understand, there's only one that was ever built, and I believe that's what happened. Those who cannot adapt become victims of Evolugalbugaslugakjlwsdhvbzxd Click for old school EVE Portraits: http://jadeconstantine.web44.net/Maison.htm |

Zen Sarum
EliteTroll
9
|
Posted - 2012.12.26 05:01:00 -
[40] - Quote
Alavaria Fera wrote:Zen Sarum wrote:3. So say you are a combat pilot in a massive coalition, if you lose a ship it gets replaced. The coalition holds all of its space and pays the SRP as well as super and other funded programs by using static income (tech). This moons have no real risk as the coalition holds most of it and controls its price and it has reached a point where noone can ever take. The moons use resources and require maintenance but this is minimal in comparison to the income generated. So the pilot may buy new ships with this 'free' isk and this creates inflation. He may even be able to rat in a system + 50 jumps from any enemy mitigating nearly all risk. Other then buying stuff they dont need and plex.. what is the point however?
So were is risk and were is the activity in the above. Yes, ask all the people who lost their tech moons. It clearly was riskless for them Also, it needs to be nerfed more.
Erm kinda obvious none of them were lost, you effectively made them all part of your extended coalition?
Yes it needs to be nerfed so that all income is activity based from the players and is completely risk vs reward, highest of both being 0.0, which to be honest has never been so safe as it is now. |
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Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2073
|
Posted - 2012.12.26 05:04:00 -
[41] - Quote
Zen Sarum wrote:Alavaria Fera wrote:Zen Sarum wrote:3. So say you are a combat pilot in a massive coalition, if you lose a ship it gets replaced. The coalition holds all of its space and pays the SRP as well as super and other funded programs by using static income (tech). This moons have no real risk as the coalition holds most of it and controls its price and it has reached a point where noone can ever take. The moons use resources and require maintenance but this is minimal in comparison to the income generated. So the pilot may buy new ships with this 'free' isk and this creates inflation. He may even be able to rat in a system + 50 jumps from any enemy mitigating nearly all risk. Other then buying stuff they dont need and plex.. what is the point however?
So were is risk and were is the activity in the above. Yes, ask all the people who lost their tech moons. It clearly was riskless for them Also, it needs to be nerfed more. Erm kinda obvious none of them were lost, you effectively made them all part of your extended coalition? Yes it needs to be nerfed so that all income is activity based from the players and is completely risk vs reward, highest of both being 0.0, which to be honest has never been so safe as it is now. We beat the crap out of some people and then our blues took over the space and the moons, yes. But there was sure some crying when we were hurting the owners. Those who cannot adapt become victims of Evolugalbugaslugakjlwsdhvbzxd Click for old school EVE Portraits: http://jadeconstantine.web44.net/Maison.htm |

Amarra Mandalin
Protocol 52
449
|
Posted - 2012.12.26 08:57:00 -
[42] - Quote
Glathull wrote:Okay, so the sense I'm getting is that risk vs. reward is a meaningless phrase that people throw around because it sounds like an argument. But when you try to get people to quantify that argument, no one is interested.
Just because you can't EFT human behavior doesn't mean one's motivations are meaningless. The point is that much of the fun and frustration in this game is not quantifiable. -- despite people's claims they collect tears. 
On paper, someone who is not so great at PvP (suffering many losses) would defy logic and any formula, for example.
You can't measure their adrenaline rush (reward), for instance, vs. the isk lost (risk) and time invested to gain such.
On a broader scale, formulas for Isk/Hr. will only satisfy your answer partly and few will agree on what's good.
So, again, you can't stuff this into a math equation expecting a result that will satisfy the majority until the risk/reward ratio is so low that it becomes meaningless. Just look to other MMOs for this formula.
We can make an educated guess though: Such that we can derive the average player's game time and calculate this against the time and tools required to pay for a subscription, given that is a common goal.
Then you can adjust this figure for people who aim their goals higher or lower, giving players choices on how to achieve the sought out rewards: be it a move to Null, investing more hours in the game or adopting different tactics, for example.
But Meaningless?
At the end of the day, if people are playing another game because EvE ceases to be fun, (the essence of the X sucks threads) I think not -- nor for the people that love EVE as their risk/reward ratios are equally valid. In either case, people tend to risk more when they enjoy what they are doing.
And if you could reduce successful MMO design to mere formulas you wouldn't see so many MMO failures ...some quite expensive ones, too.
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Amarra Mandalin
Protocol 52
449
|
Posted - 2012.12.26 09:19:00 -
[43] - Quote
P.S. I'm not saying formulas are useless but rather that they are limited. I think CCP would do well to run well-designed surveys that answer this (risk vs. reward) and other questions. And then take this feedback into consideration for future game development. |

Dave stark
945
|
Posted - 2012.12.26 11:01:00 -
[44] - Quote
Amarra Mandalin wrote:P.S. I'm not saying formulas are useless but rather that they are limited. I think CCP would do well to run well-designed surveys that answer this (risk vs. reward) and other questions. And then take this feedback into consideration for future game development. This rather then relying on the squeakiest wheels for feedback.
most players don't read patch notes, let alone know where to find some kind of feedback form that most wouldn't even be able to give a coherent answer to. Reading my posts is like panning for gold; most it will be useless, but occasionally you'll find a nugget of gold. |

Higgs Maken
The Metal Box Company
9
|
Posted - 2012.12.26 12:21:00 -
[45] - Quote
Amarra Mandalin wrote:P.S. I'm not saying formulas are useless but rather that they are limited. I think CCP would do well to run well-designed surveys that answer this (risk vs. reward) and other questions. And then take this feedback into consideration for future game development. This rather then relying on the squeakiest wheels for feedback.
The Big Mac index Is an article written by the economist. I have extracted 2 paragraph which I believe is an essential for anyone game developers/policy makers.
Quote:But will consumers buy the healthier meals they claim to want? There is the cautionary tale of the McLean Deluxe, a less fatty burger that tested well in the 1990s but failed miserably in the market. GÇ£They said they wanted it, we gave it to them and they didnGÇÖt eat it,GÇ¥ says Greg Watson, McDonaldGÇÖs vice-president for menu innovation. Consumers still love the core McDonaldGÇÖs menu. When executives went on a listening tour earlier this year to hear consumersGÇÖ thoughts, many mothers asked McDonaldGÇÖs to improve nutrition but also told the company not to change the recipes for favourite foods such as Big Macs or French fries. GÇ£Some items just need to be left alone,GÇ¥ says Mr Watson.
Today McDonaldGÇÖs introduces new items cautiously, trying them in just a few restaurants or markets for a limited period. An experiment to add blueberries to its oatmeal will not be repeated next year. Dan Coudreaut, the head chef, is more optimistic about an egg-white sandwich on a wholegrain bun. One benefit of healthier items, explains Mr Watson, is that they make customers feel better about the McDonaldGÇÖs brand. Some of them will order the healthier food and some will still order their favourite burger but be happier about it, in the knowledge that the company also does salads.
Listen but don't believe everything your consumer tells you. Sometimes they are telling what they really believe but others they are simply paying lip service. Your survey won't collect any meaningful data.
BTW here's a risk v reward model for EvE Let say I'm non-profit insurance dealer for Hulk pilot in high sec, and every hour there 1 is X Hulk destroyed., thus I would be charging 1/X* Current Hulk price/hour. The same calculation would apply to low and null. The reward is straight froward: total amount of ore mine in an hour. Only problem is 'X Hulk destroyed', 'Current Hulk price' and 'mineral price' are player determine, thus the out of sync 'Risk vs Reward' which low and null players love to talk about is meaningless because it's dynamic. Furthermore 'Risk vs Reward' can be control via market operation i.e. when price of high-sec mineral crash, reward of high-sec miner would reduce while they are undertaking the same amount of risk( assuming gankers continue to blew up as many Hulk in high-sec; while price of Hulk might reduce because of a drop in mineral price, but high-sec mineral isn't 100% of Hulk BPC.) |

Amarra Mandalin
Protocol 52
449
|
Posted - 2012.12.26 13:12:00 -
[46] - Quote
Higgs Maken wrote:[quote=Amarra Mandalin]
Listen but don't believe everything your consumer tells you. Sometimes they are telling what they really believe but others they are simply paying lip service.
True.
Quote: Your survey won't collect any meaningful data.
False.
Surveys involving "experiments" and clinical research both often show major discrepancies with a product that has gone to market. This, for the most part, is an apples/oranges comparison with evaluating current customer satisfaction.
Market research is not a perfect science but is a viable tool used by most all successful companies.
There are many ways to implement control questions, minimize bias and misconception about the game, as well as eliminate fringe categories.
If you dislike the idea, that's fine. But in my opinion it would serve better than run-of-the mill forum rants and might be revealing as to how the silent majority / forum defectors feel about the game.
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Higgs Maken
The Metal Box Company
10
|
Posted - 2012.12.26 16:45:00 -
[47] - Quote
Amarra Mandalin wrote:
False.
Surveys involving "experiments" and clinical research both often show major discrepancies with a product that has gone to market. This, for the most part, is an apples/oranges comparison with evaluating current customer satisfaction.
Market research is not a perfect science but is a viable tool used by most all successful companies.
There are many ways to implement control questions, minimize bias and misconception about the game, as well as eliminate fringe categories.
If you dislike the idea, that's fine. But in my opinion it would serve better than run-of-the mill forum rants and might be revealing as to how the silent majority / forum defectors feel about the game.
How question is phase affect the answers, for a demo watch the first 10 mins of this video. Like it or not we are all bias in our own way, whoever design the survey can affect the out come of the survey!
Even that don't render your data meaningless, players own self interest will. Human are interesting, instead of directly admitting it is for their self-interest, they are going to reason righteously about balance, risk vs reward and so on. If you did a survey on world of Warcraft before PvP rating system was implement, PvPers would all agree they love such a system. What they didn't tell you is why did the support such a system, simply because their own self-serving bias is telling them they are totally going to win this. Now instead lying to themselves how 1337 they are, hard facts of they suck is being thrown at them.
There is just too many point of failure built into a survey, I doubt you can weed it, and yield meaningful data. |

Amarra Mandalin
Protocol 52
457
|
Posted - 2012.12.27 08:06:00 -
[48] - Quote
Higgs Maken wrote:[quote=Amarra Mandalin] How question is phase affect the answers, for a demo watch the first 10 mins of this video. Like it or not we are all bias in our own way, whoever design the survey can affect the out come of the survey!
Sorry. I'm not all that interested in an elementary education, if it is even that. With over 20 years in the journalism field , and several in marketing, I forget what is included in a Bias 101 education these days.
And I have a rule I live by: I don't debate people who presumptively link to wiki articles -- except on the Paradox forums where you're a scrub if you don't know important historical facts such as the color of Napoleon's favorite underwear.
But your point is noted: All surveys are meaningless. |

Glathull
Suicidal Panda Tears of Love and Death
14
|
Posted - 2012.12.27 09:02:00 -
[49] - Quote
Amarra Mandalin wrote:P.S. I'm not saying formulas are useless but rather that they are limited. I think CCP would do well to run well-designed surveys that answer this (risk vs. reward) and other questions. And then take this feedback into consideration for future game development. This rather then relying on the squeakiest wheels for feedback.
I'd kind of given up on this for the moment, but you are bringing some good thoughts to the table so I'll try some more.
I agree that a well-designed survey would be good for CCP to do. In fact, Market Research is my job and creating models like the one I'm talking about in this thread is something I do on a daily basis.
I don't think that there is a single model that can work, and I certainly wouldn't try this out on a message board. A survey or poll here would be as pointless as was suggested above. But message boards are valuable as qualitative research that can direct the development of a good quant study.
My point with this thread was to find out if there is any agreement within the community on even an extremely low level.
Again, the reason for my original post was that I've read a ton of people saying that EVE is all about risk vs. reward and that that relationship is off re: high sec/null sec.
My assumption is that if people think that relationship is off, there must somewhere be at least a vague notion of what the right relationship is.
There are all kinds of problems with a simple equation, and the problems only grow when you try to complicate the formula to account for those problems.
Bump Truck's attempt was a good example of that. Already, in his approach, he is trying to account for the fact that Reward doesn't mean the same thing to everyone. So he's trying to quantify value. In an exhaustive attempt to reduce the EVE experience to a formula, those kinds of permutations would be necessary.
But this is not an attempt to exhaustively quantify EVE. It's an attempt to find out if there is any fundamental starting place that a large number of people agree is correct, even if severely lacking in granular, descriptive detail.
Perhaps I should've tried this as a True/False exercise:
Reward = Time * Activity * Risk
For now, let alone the fact that everyone has their own definition of Reward, Activity, and Risk. Is that statement in general True or is it False? The point of a thought experiment like this is to take subjective stuff out of the argument and find out what people really disagree about. Because right now, everyone seems to disagree about everything. And I just don't think that's the case.
For example, I think we can agree that Time is not really all that subjective and that how much of it you put into the game should play a factor in how much Reward you get out of it. But I could be wrong about that. There could be strong disagreement there. One could argue that Time is really relative to the amount of Real Life time that you have to spend on the game, and therefore absolute numbers of hours shouldn't have anything to do with reward.
There are lots of interpretations of even this very simple relationship, which is why I'm not trying to come up with one ring of numbers to rule them all. Just a general rule of thumb that |

Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2225
|
Posted - 2012.12.27 09:46:00 -
[50] - Quote
Amarra Mandalin wrote:Higgs Maken wrote:[quote=Amarra Mandalin]How question is phase affect the answers, for a demo watch the first 10 mins of this video. Like it or not we are all bias in our own way, whoever design the survey can affect the out come of the survey! Sorry. I'm not all that interested in an elementary education, if it is even that. With over 20 years in the journalism field, and several in marketing, I forget what is included in a Bias 101 education these days. And I have a rule I live by: I don't debate people who presumptively -- and often, passive-aggressively - link to wiki articles -- except on the Paradox forums where you're a scrub if you don't know important historical facts such as the color of Napoleon's favorite underwear. But your point is noted: Survey data in meaningless. See: Faulty Generalization The whole forums are pretty much worthless, compare the small fraction of goodposts to the rubbish, the optimal strategy is to ignore it and buff the rat AI.
Also, freighters need more EHP, it's clearly all the gankers' fault. Those who cannot adapt become victims of Evolugalbugaslugakjlwsdhvbzxd Click for old school EVE Portraits: http://jadeconstantine.web44.net/Maison.htm |
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psycho freak
Snuff Box
85
|
Posted - 2012.12.27 12:27:00 -
[51] - Quote
RvR is a myth whiners tell themselves when they cry themselves to sleep
there is only
easy way to make isk fastest way to make isk most afkable way to make is most convient way to make isk lazyest way to make is
every now and again you get some nutter pull some random numbers out they @ss but i just take at face value
EvE is game i play for lulz i couldnt give two f##ks about anyone els tbh when i make isk i want the fastest way less time drunk grinding = more time drunk killing
so thats my RvR drunk grinding time Vs drunk killing time my spelling sux brb find phone number for someone who gives a fu*k
nop cant find it |

Amarra Mandalin
Protocol 52
460
|
Posted - 2012.12.27 15:33:00 -
[52] - Quote
Glathull wrote: I'd kind of given up on this for the moment, but you are bringing some good thoughts to the table so I'll try some more.
I think I was a bit too hard on you to start, my apologies. I'm allergic to tin-foil and despise over-generalizations.
But it sounds like you have good intent and experience. I hope you manage to further a decent discussion as a result.
Right now, I just don't have the motivation. When Alavaria Fera's start to make the most sense on threads habitually (meant as a compliment -- brilliance in simplicity doused in sarcasm and all ) I really need more fresh air myself.
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